2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations

[sveumrules]

FanGraphs published an article today attempting to estimate prospect valuation...

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

 

& another article using those estimates to rank the farm systems of the 30 clubs (Brewers slotted in at 22) as the Hot Stove gets ready to hopefully heat up...

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post-2018-farm-system-rankings/

 

It looks like their individual team lists will also start rolling out later this week so I thought I'd start a new thread to keep track of the various lists & rankings once they start coming out.

[And That]

Sort of related, sort of not, but here's FanGraph's new scouting primer. If you're wondering what OFP values mean when I use them, OFP is more or less interchangeable with Future Value (FV) as FanGraphs uses it.

 

Think it's also fair to note that FanGraphs' FV errs on the side of caution in that the tend to try to go after the most likely outcome as opposed to a more optimistic outcome, so often their FVs will be lower than elsewhere. It's not unusual to see FanGraphs give someone a 35 FV and have that same player get 45-55 grades in more than one other place.

[And That]

& another article using those estimates to rank the farm systems of the 30 clubs (Brewers slotted in at 22) as the Hot Stove gets ready to hopefully heat up...

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post-2018-farm-system-rankings/

One thing I'll note about this, if you buy into this valuation: while the Brewers are 22nd overall, have 3.1x more value than the worst farm system, and the best farm system has 3.4x more value than the Brewers. They seem to be quite middle-ish.

 

And I will go to war over the Brewers' depth being undervalued.

[sveumrules]

Agree that the #22 ranking is more encouraging than it seems at face value, especially considering the recent graduations of Burnes, Woodruff & Peralta. The last FVs that they had put them around 60 million, which would've moved us up to #12.

 

Just eyeballing it & not running the actual math it looks like trying to apply the 20-80 scale to the farm systems themselves it's maybe something like...

 

80 FV: SDP (50.9 future WAR)

70 FV: ATL, CHW, TBR (39.6-45.0 future WAR)

60 FV: TOR, CIN, MIN, DET (27.8-33.1 future WAR)

55 FV: HOU, LAD, PIT (22.4-23.5 future WAR)

50 FV: LAA, PHI, OAK, TEX, CLE, NYM, WAS (17.8-19.7 future WAR)

45 FV: STL, MIA, NYY, MIL, COL (14.5-16.1 future WAR)

40 FV: SFG, CHC, ARI, KCR, BAL (8.5-10.6 future WAR)

30 FV: BOS, SEA (4.8-6.1 future WAR)

[KeithStone53151]

Interesting that without Hiura, the Cubs would have a better farm than ours according to this breakout. But as noted above, I think our depth is much better than theirs. Most of their upper level arms come off very mediocre based on scouting reports and stats over the last couple years...and I still don't believe that catcher is ranked properly and is as good of a prospect Callis and co.

[BlazingGunz]

One thing I didn't like with the fangraphs projections, is that they used a different number of prospects for different teams....thus teams that had more prospects rated got a higher value. I get that they probably have more/better quality, but at least give the Brewers depth options some value as well, might make this a better representation...instead of just the prospects that fangraphs decided to scout and write about. My 2 cents...

[Fear The Chorizo]

meh, I don't like how these projections are put together so I'm not going to worry too much about how the results wind up ranking the teams. As others have said there wasn't a standard # of prospects evaluated for each team, so the organizations who have more minor league depth aren't valued at all.

 

I don't buy that there are 21 better farm systems across MLB than what the Brewers have right now, despite all their in-season trades that resulted in moving mostly prospects who probably weren't going to be around longterm, anyways. Stearns has only gone through 3 drafts as GM, which should mean we start seeing that talent advancing through the upper minor league levels - although plenty of it already has (Ray (AA), Burnes (MLB), Brown (AA), Hiura (AA))

 

Fangraphs should stick to projecting the Brewers for mid-upper 70's win totals...

[sveumrules]

The organizations with more minor league depth get more prospects evaluated precisely so their depth is represented. Limiting a list to 10 or 20 spots punishes teams with more depth because the 10th or 20th best prospect in the worst system is in no way comparable to the 10th or 20th best prospect in the best system.

 

I think it's pretty easy to buy that the Brewers are bottom ten farm at the moment. Hiura is a top 20 guy, but after that the fall off is pretty steep.

 

Ray was a high pick & finally had a decent season though he still has major questions about his ability to make enough contact. Boom/bust potential is pretty high. After that the consensus next best guys are probably Lutz & Turang, two high school picks that are still in the low levels. A lot can go right or wrong between now & MLB.

 

Brown had a nice year, but he is another guy that wasn't highly thought of coming out of college so he is going to have to earn it every step of the way & prove the doubters wrong.

[clancyphile]

The organizations with more minor league depth get more prospects evaluated precisely so their depth is represented. Limiting a list to 10 or 20 spots punishes teams with more depth because the 10th or 20th best prospect in the worst system is in no way comparable to the 10th or 20th best prospect in the best system.

 

I think it's pretty easy to buy that the Brewers are bottom ten farm at the moment. Hiura is a top 20 guy, but after that the fall off is pretty steep.

 

Ray was a high pick & finally had a decent season though he still has major questions about his ability to make enough contact. Boom/bust potential is pretty high. After that the consensus next best guys are probably Lutz & Turang, two high school picks that are still in the low levels. A lot can go right or wrong between now & MLB.

 

Brown had a nice year, but he is another guy that wasn't highly thought of coming out of college so he is going to have to earn it every step of the way & prove the doubters wrong.

 

I think you are right in a sense that the Brewers don't have a lot of classic prospects.

 

That said... I'll just point to one Brent Suter, and say that sometimes, the usual suspects in the evaluation world miss. Before he needed Tommy John surgery, he was a reliable part of the rotation. Then look at Quintin Torres-Costa, a 35th round pick. That guy looked like a key part of the 2019 pen until be needed Tommy John surgery.

 

Right now, my eyes are on Cameron Roegner and Scott Sunitsch, a pair of lefty starters in the lower part of the minors, but both of whom are flashing some very good signs, and Clayton Andrews, a lefty looking as dominant as Hader, but who I'd love to see stretched out. Jorge Ortega pitched again after injury, and he still has that control, and I think he could rocket up, and there's a DSL pitcher by the name of Henry Medina, a command-and-control pitcher who got results.

 

On the hitting side, the Brewers have Eddie Silva, David Fry, Jesus Chorinos, and Victor Vargas in the low minors, plus Weston Wilson and Cooper Hummel higher up.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I will say partially because they've started spending more consistently in Latin America and partially because their interesting draft strategy last year, it seems like there are more breakout candidates at the lower levels who wouldn't have made this type of list than there have been in some other recent years.

 

That being said, this ranking feels right, but given the amount that they traded away in the last year and the graduation of their top three pitching prospects, it's also not exactly surprising. The fact that they aren't lower is actually vaguely impressive.

[clancyphile]

I will say partially because they've started spending more consistently in Latin America and partially because their interesting draft strategy last year, it seems like there are more breakout candidates at the lower levels who wouldn't have made this type of list than there have been in some other recent years.

 

That being said, this ranking feels right, but given the amount that they traded away in the last year and the graduation of their top three pitching prospects, it's also not exactly surprising. The fact that they aren't lower is actually vaguely impressive.

 

My picks from that draft to be big-time steals are Andrews and Sunitsch. And I know it's a very small sample size, but Kekai Rios looks very intriguing, but 60 plate appearances, even if he posted an OBP of over .500, is just too small to bank on.

[CheeseheadInQC]

My picks from that draft to be big-time steals are Andrews and Sunitsch. And I know it's a very small sample size, but Kekai Rios looks very intriguing, but 60 plate appearances, even if he posted an OBP of over .500, is just too small to bank on.

Two of the three guys you mentioned don’t really fit the pattern, but it seems as if the Brewers were quite willing to sacrifice floor for ceiling this draft. Along with the focus on prep and JuCo players, I believe the first four four-year college picks they signed all had aspects that significantly raised their risk but also potentially left them undervalued: a pitcher with major injury problems, a catcher who has barely caught, a DII pitcher and a pitcher who is, if I remember correctly, 5-6.

[reillymcshane]

My picks from that draft to be big-time steals are Andrews and Sunitsch. And I know it's a very small sample size, but Kekai Rios looks very intriguing, but 60 plate appearances, even if he posted an OBP of over .500, is just too small to bank on.

Two of the three guys you mentioned don’t really fit the pattern, but it seems as if the Brewers were quite willing to sacrifice floor for ceiling this draft. Along with the focus on prep and JuCo players, I believe the first four four-year college picks they signed all had aspects that significantly raised their risk but also potentially left them undervalued: a pitcher with major injury problems, a catcher who has barely caught, a DII pitcher and a pitcher who is, if I remember correctly, 5-6.

Wow, that's really young.

[sveumrules]

Always enjoy seeing how the other NL Central farms stack up. Looks like Sickels has posted his Reds list...

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/11/21/18105597/cincinnati-reds-top-20-prospects-for-2019

 

While FanGraphs has published their Cardinals & Pirates lists with the rest of the NLC on deck...

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-40-prospects-st-louis-cardinals/

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-35-prospects-pittsburgh-pirates/

[LouisEly]

And I will go to war over the Brewers' depth being undervalued.

Agree with this. They don't have the high-end guys, but when I went to 100 on my prospect list there were very, very few who didn't have something going for them.

 

I recall Sickels last year having a ridiculous number of C+/C grade prospects in the Brewers system, and they were almost all Rookie/low-A guys with some upside, not meh AA/AAA guys. It's possible that 1-2 years from now the Brewers could have 20+ B-grade prospects, and that's a lot.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

And I will go to war over the Brewers' depth being undervalued.

Agree with this. They don't have the high-end guys, but when I went to 100 on my prospect list there were very, very few who didn't have something going for them.

 

I recall Sickels last year having a ridiculous number of C+/C grade prospects in the Brewers system, and they were almost all Rookie/low-A guys with some upside, not meh AA/AAA guys. It's possible that 1-2 years from now the Brewers could have 20+ B-grade prospects, and that's a lot.

 

I think this is another case of prospects that are controlled by bigger media markets getting more hype. Personally, I had a rough time narrowing down my top 25, as I believe this team has at least 10-15 high-end prospects, and probably another 15-20 that grade out as solid role players at the ML level. Obviously not all of those guys are going to pan out, but those who are saying that the trades the team has made have decimated the farm system, or that they don't have the system depth to make a significant deal without giving up Hiura or MLB-level young pitching I believe are incorrect.

[clancyphile]

And I will go to war over the Brewers' depth being undervalued.

Agree with this. They don't have the high-end guys, but when I went to 100 on my prospect list there were very, very few who didn't have something going for them.

 

I recall Sickels last year having a ridiculous number of C+/C grade prospects in the Brewers system, and they were almost all Rookie/low-A guys with some upside, not meh AA/AAA guys. It's possible that 1-2 years from now the Brewers could have 20+ B-grade prospects, and that's a lot.

 

I'd agree.

 

David Fry (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=fry---002dav), Jesus Chirinos (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=chirin003jes), Victor Vargas (https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=680838), Edwin Sano (https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=666787), Eddie Silva (https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=656962), Alex Hall (https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=673064), and Jess Williams (https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=673135) all have me very intrigued as offensive prospects.

[JDBrewCrew]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-32-prospects-milwaukee-brewers/

 

Fan Graphs just did a new wrap up of the Brewers system. Also notes on many not in their top 32. They also include this summary...

 

"System Overview

 

This system looks very weak now that several 45 FV or better prospects have either graduated or been traded, and the farm alone doesn’t project a clear picture of the youthful health of this franchise. The focus now shifts to the collective development of the large number of teenagers in the 40 and 35+ FV tiers. Another sizable wave of talent — position players this time — could arrive in Milwaukee in three to five years. The organization’s recent history of hitter development isn’t all that inspiring; most of Milwaukee’s big league position players came from outside the org, and Orlando Arcia hasn’t made the kind of offensive impact that was expected of him as a prospect. Grisham and Erceg have been frustrating and have gone backwards. Things may not bode well for several of the hitters in this system who clearly need improvement in some way to progress like Milwaukee’s pitching has. The Brewers love idiosyncratic pitchers whose stuff plays up because of one weird thing or another, and they’ve had success developing them."

[And That]

Things that stood out to me from the FanGraphs piece:

 

-Hiura's defense/arm strength is fine. They call him an All-Star second baseman.

 

-They are much more bearish on Lutz's defense that I am. I think he's fine as a RF with average speed and doesn't take noticeably awkward paths to the ball. They give his arm a 60 - for me it's at least a 70. The profile actually reminds me a bit of Domingo Santana, with better defense.

 

-For some reason, it hadn't occurred to me that Dubon was already 24.5. I mentally had him a year or two younger than that. They also gave him a lower defensive grade than I've seen/heard elsewhere.

 

-There's way too much volatility in Feliciano's profile for me to call him the Brewers' 7th best prospect. He's not a catcher long-term and still has a long way to go with the bat.

 

-They call Stokes' arm in LF "nearly unplayable" - it's a few notches better than Khris Davis' arm by my eye. Below average for sure, but I wouldn't toss around the term unplayable with it.

 

-Some scouts want to move Erceg to the mound, apparently. They crapped all over his hitting profile.

 

-Lun Zhao has a 70 curveball.

[long ball]

"the farm alone doesn’t project a clear picture of the youthful health of this franchise"

 

This is what people should be focusing on. They'll have 5-6 impact type players who are minimum salary guys on the mlb roster + another 3-4 on the shuttle crew.

 

The organization is in good shape overall.

[KeithStone53151]

"the farm alone doesn’t project a clear picture of the youthful health of this franchise"

 

This is what people should be focusing on. They'll have 5-6 impact type players who are minimum salary guys on the mlb roster + another 3-4 on the shuttle crew.

 

The organization is in good shape overall.

 

This seems the equivalent of saying "christian yelich is a good baseball player". I don't remember the overall state of the franchise being better than it is right now. Even in the late 00s with Braun/Fielder/Weeks/etc, we didn't have pitching or much for minor league talent in the pipeline. And once we traded for Marcum/Greinke...we had a clearly defined 2 year window, whereas I don't see a window with this current team. We are contenders for the forseeable future with plenty of identifiable talent in the minors. We probably have a 1-2 year lull with minimal contributions/callups from the minors coming. Hiura, Brown, Ray, Dubon that might be it for the next 2 years aside from role players and shuttle service bullpen arms. By that point, some of these 40-45 FV players in the low minors will likely have vaulted themselves into impact prospects...as we have a lot of talented players in the low minors getting 40-45 FV rankings currently.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm a bit blown away by the high ranking of Garcia. He must have really impressed in fall instructs as noted, because they rank him ahead of some quality upper minors players.

[JosephC]

I don't see the great depth that people keep talking about. Not at all. With the talent the team had 12-13 months ago, a player like Mario Feliciano, coming off what he did in the 2018 season, probably wouldn't be ranked in the top 20. The fact that he's listed at #7 by a credible source like Fangraphs, pretty much screams to me that the Brewers have about 6 players sitting on top and a whole, whole lot of mediocrity backed up behind that. Really disappointed to see Erceg that low. Pretty much should have expected it by now considering how many outs he makes, but still disappointing because his value may have dropped to the point where he just doesn't have much of any trade value remaining, and he would be a logical piece to move if the Brewers need to make a deal. Wow, even below Trent Grisham...surprising.

[Boomer5]

I don't see the great depth that people keep talking about. Not at all. With the talent the team had 12-13 months ago, a player like Mario Feliciano, coming off what he did in the 2018 season, probably wouldn't be ranked in the top 20. The fact that he's listed at #7 by a credible source like Fangraphs, pretty much screams to me that the Brewers have about 6 players sitting on top and a whole, whole lot of mediocrity backed up behind that. Really disappointed to see Erceg that low. Pretty much should have expected it by now considering how many outs he makes, but still disappointing because his value may have dropped to the point where he just doesn't have much of any trade value remaining, and he would be a logical piece to move if the Brewers need to make a deal. Wow, even below Trent Grisham...surprising.

 

When discussing a farm system, Depth is really over rated. No one cares if we develop 10 Nick Franklins. Farm systems need to develop starters and more to the point, All Stars, to be relevant.

[sveumrules]

I think the idea behind having a deep farm system is that not all starters & All Stars were top prospects. A lot of viable MLB players emerge from that depth.

 

Cain, Aguilar & Shaw were three of our best players this season & none ever made a top 100 list, meanwhile, our worst player Arcia did.

 

Arguing who has more depth or which team's is over/underrated is tricky. Intuitively we'll always think our depth is better because it's the only depth we're familiar with since there is no way any message board poster could have a comprehensive knowledge of all 30 MLB farms plus each organization's proclivity at developing said talent.