Woodruff vs Peralta

[And That]

Peralta 2018: -1.68 Horizontal 10.11 Vertical

This combines two different pitches, though. When you mix data for a 4-seam FB and a cutter, the horizontal data (and probably the vertical data too somewhat) is going to cancel itself out.

[KeithStone53151]

If you guys can't remember what opposing players have said about Peralta's movement or what Yelich said he was seeing from the outfield, that's unfortunate.

 

That aside, it's simple baseball logic that tells you how 91-92 can induce more strikeouts (11.03 K/9) and fewer hits (.187 BAA) than 95 or even 97. It's one word, 8 letters, begins with "M" and ends with "T".

 

Most of the comments relate more to deception in his delivery and release point than movement. Guys see it too late and can't react. Guys will figure out how to pick up his pitches quicker as they see him more, deception won't last forever.

[FVBrewerFan]

Last two pages of this thread remind me of....

 

http://www.quickmeme.com/img/68/685433417ff0b63c24e8d5aa51c18145d49a4e0f5732015eb29ab05c8fbfd2ab.jpg

[True Blue Brew Crew]

If you guys can't remember what opposing players have said about Peralta's movement or what Yelich said he was seeing from the outfield, that's unfortunate.

 

That aside, it's simple baseball logic that tells you how 91-92 can induce more strikeouts (11.03 K/9) and fewer hits (.187 BAA) than 95 or even 97. It's one word, 8 letters, begins with "M" and ends with "T".

 

Most of the comments relate more to deception in his delivery and release point than movement. Guys see it too late and can't react. Guys will figure out how to pick up his pitches quicker as they see him more, deception won't last forever.

 

Lol. Yelich could see the unreal amount of movement on his pitches from the outfield. He said to him the ball looked like it was moving "5 feet". You can watch a broadcast and see how much his pitches move. Watch the catcher's glove. It's astonishing the lengths some here are going to discredit a prospect they should be giddy about.

 

And then to say his deception will drop off as batters see him more. He's literally the one pitcher on the team who actually became harder to hit on repeat trips through the order.

[sveumrules]

Peralta 2018: -1.68 Horizontal 10.11 Vertical

This combines two different pitches, though. When you mix data for a 4-seam FB and a cutter, the horizontal data (and probably the vertical data too somewhat) is going to cancel itself out.

 

Yeah, thought it was interesting that Brooks didn't classify his 4 seam & cutter separately.

 

From what I understand they identify pitches by algorithm depending on each pitch's velo, h-movement & v-movement.

 

If that is the case it would seem the difference between the two pitches was subtle enough to not trigger distinct classifications.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Peralta 2018: -1.68 Horizontal 10.11 Vertical

This combines two different pitches, though. When you mix data for a 4-seam FB and a cutter, the horizontal data (and probably the vertical data too somewhat) is going to cancel itself out.

 

Yeah, thought it was interesting that Brooks didn't classify his 4 seam & cutter separately.

 

From what I understand they identify pitches by algorithm depending on each pitch's velo, h-movement & v-movement.

 

If that is the case it would seem the difference between the two pitches was subtle enough to not trigger distinct classifications.

 

And That, correct me of I'm wrong, but it's because they combine all fastballs as one statistic.

 

The two pitches are anything but subtly different. They act the complete opposite. Which is why blending their movement data essentially cancels out the statistical result which gives an entirely false picture.

[Humans Need Water]

And That, correct me of I'm wrong, but it's because they combine all fastballs as one statistic.

 

The two pitches are anything but subtly different. They act the complete opposite. Which is why blending their movement data essentially cancels out the statistical result which gives an entirely false picture.

Why would you need clarification on anything when you already told everyone, and factually so according to you, that he has *2* fastballs and *both* with *crazy movement*. So what would it matter what Brooks says then...unless it turns out you *weren't* factually correct, right?

[True Blue Brew Crew]

And That, correct me of I'm wrong, but it's because they combine all fastballs as one statistic.

 

The two pitches are anything but subtly different. They act the complete opposite. Which is why blending their movement data essentially cancels out the statistical result which gives an entirely false picture.

Why would you need clarification on anything when you already told everyone, and factually so according to you, that he has *2* fastballs and *both* with *crazy movement*. So what would it matter what Brooks says then...unless it turns out you *weren't* factually correct, right?

 

I'm seeking clarification on the way the stat is compiled. I already know it's giving a misleading result. I apologize if that was too much to keep up with. I'll take blame for not being clear enough.

[And That]

And That, correct me of I'm wrong, but it's because they combine all fastballs as one statistic.

They do not. There are at least three species of fastball they assign pitches to: Fourseam, Cutter, Sinker. There are Splitters as well, if you want to call that a fastball variation. There may be more as well. Check out Wade Miley's page.

[pacopete4]

Last two pages of this thread remind me of....

 

http://www.quickmeme.com/img/68/685433417ff0b63c24e8d5aa51c18145d49a4e0f5732015eb29ab05c8fbfd2ab.jpg

 

This was perfect.

[And That]

If that is the case it would seem the difference between the two pitches was subtle enough to not trigger distinct classifications.

I wonder if the release extension has anything to do with the data that seems to not jive with reality on its face. Tyler Glasnow is the other guy I think of right away when it comes to extreme extension, though he's like 5 feet taller than Peralta. Anyway, unless he ditched his 2-seamer this year, Brooks has him throwing exclusively 4-seamers this year, which I don't think is right.

 

The other thing I can think of is that many pitcher's 4-seamer has at least some armside run. If Peralta isn't generating much of that, the delta between the cutter movement and the 4-seam movement may not be as great as it usually is. So it could be confusing to their system if the cutter is really cutting and the 4-seam isn't doing much of anything.

[homer]

Most of the posts in this topic have been pure opinion. I come in with stats, facts, and yes opinion and I'm the one who is doing the disservice. OK. I guess this place prefers wild rampant inaccurate speculation.

 

Thankfully this will get settled on the field. This place eats a lot of crow. This is why.

 

Except for, you know, all the people also bringing facts.

[FVBrewerFan]

I can shed some light on this. Technically, Peralta does NOT throw a cutter. He holds the four seem fastball differently to give that pitch some of the effect of a cutter. That's the pitch he throws low, and has a lot of movement.

 

The traditional 4 seam fastball he throws high, and generally does not have a lot of movement. Although (and this is my eye test only, and comments from opposing coaches/ players) it does "seem" to rise, which is why he gets so many swing/miss on that pitch outside the zone.

 

Anyhow, my guess is that's why Fangraphs doesn't differentiate between the two fastballs, because technically they are both 4 seam fastballs. To a hitter, they are very different though.

[And That]

Just to compare the horizontal movement of Woodruff and Peralta, here's Freddy's first start against Colorado:

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/horzspeed.php-pitchSel=642547&game=gid_2018_05_13_milmlb_colmlb_1&batterX=0&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=3&league=mlb&pnf=&zlpo=&cache=1.gif

 

And here's Brandon's longest outing of the year, 5/16 vs. Arizona:

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/horzspeed.php-pitchSel=605540&game=gid_2018_05_16_milmlb_arimlb_1&batterX=0&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=3&league=mlb&pnf=&zlpo=&cache=1.gif

 

You can see that all of Woodruff's fastballs are clustered pretty tightly on the x-axis basically between -4 and -6. Peralta, on the other hand, is everywhere between +1 and -5. That's tells me that a)Woodruff has more consistent movement on his fastball and b)that Peralta is throwing more than one pitch there. I can't think of a single pitch, outside of maybe a knuckleball, that would have that drastic of a horizontal spectrum.

[KeithStone53151]

Regarding Peralta, it could just be that his mechanics aren't quite as sound...resulting in a more variation. I'll agree that it looks like more than 1 pitch, but I would think a 4 seam fastball and cut fastball would have 2 tighter clusters...versus a giant ball of outcomes that you don't really know what pitch was a cutter and what pitch was a 4 seam.

[FVBrewerFan]

I can shed some light on this. Technically, Peralta does NOT throw a cutter. He holds the four seem fastball differently to give that pitch some of the effect of a cutter. That's the pitch he throws low, and has a lot of movement.

 

The traditional 4 seam fastball he throws high, and generally does not have a lot of movement. Although (and this is my eye test only, and comments from opposing coaches/ players) it does "seem" to rise, which is why he gets so many swing/miss on that pitch outside the zone.

 

Anyhow, my guess is that's why Fangraphs doesn't differentiate between the two fastballs, because technically they are both 4 seam fastballs. To a hitter, they are very different though.

[MadScientist]

I can shed some light on this. Technically, Peralta does NOT throw a cutter. He holds the four seem fastball differently to give that pitch some of the effect of a cutter. That's the pitch he throws low, and has a lot of movement.

 

The traditional 4 seam fastball he throws high, and generally does not have a lot of movement. Although (and this is my eye test only, and comments from opposing coaches/ players) it does "seem" to rise, which is why he gets so many swing/miss on that pitch outside the zone.

 

Anyhow, my guess is that's why Fangraphs doesn't differentiate between the two fastballs, because technically they are both 4 seam fastballs. To a hitter, they are very different though.

 

That probably accounts for the size of the range, but there is no cluster or pair of cluster pattern in the blob. It's likely that's what keeps hitters off balance. Even if they can quickly identify the pitch, there's a wide difference in final location. The down side is that Peralta dosen't always have the best control. If he could hone his control without tightening his fastball cluster too much, he will be really tough to hit. With AAA somewhere reasonable this year, it may well be worth putting him there for a month or two.

[Humans Need Water]

And That, correct me of I'm wrong, but it's because they combine all fastballs as one statistic.

 

The two pitches are anything but subtly different. They act the complete opposite. Which is why blending their movement data essentially cancels out the statistical result which gives an entirely false picture.

Why would you need clarification on anything when you already told everyone, and factually so according to you, that he has *2* fastballs and *both* with *crazy movement*. So what would it matter what Brooks says then...unless it turns out you *weren't* factually correct, right?

 

I'm seeking clarification on the way the stat is compiled. I already know it's giving a misleading result. I apologize if that was too much to keep up with. I'll take blame for not being clear enough.

Holding the ball with the same exact grip but over different parts of the ball *doesn't* equate to two different fastballs. A fourseamer, twoseamer, cutter, sinker all have different *grips* and that's what makes them *different pitches*. Look at the pics of Peralta in that Fangraphs link by KeithStone - it's the exact same grip. It's why everyone solely uses *fourseam* for his fastball because that's what his grip indicates. Moving the ball in your hand but using the same grip allows one to change the movement of the pitch. It's no different than me holding a traditional fourseamer while changing my arm slot from straight over the top to submarine. Did I just throw two different fastballs? No. I threw two fourseamers but the movement was different.

 

Woodruff threw 61% fastball, 24.7% slider, 11.4% change, 2.9% sinker. Peralta threw 77.7% fastball, 19.5% curve, 2.7% change.

 

The information is listed above to counter another factual (cough) point of yours. You stated Peralta has 2 fastballs, which then means his 3rd pitch (curve) is thrown more than Woodruff's 3rd (change) - as in Peralta actually has a 3rd pitch whereas Woodruff doesn't. But how would you factually prove that when you never provided everyone with the percent Peralta throws each of those fastballs? For example, if he throws one of those fastballs 85% of the time and the other 15% of the time then that means his final stats would be 66% 1st fastball, 19% curve, 11.6% 2nd fastball, 3% change. *Which would mean his 3rd pitch (2nd fastball) is thrown exactly the same amount as Woodruff's 3rd pitch* proving your initial statement wrong at that point. There's no information (to my knowledge) that breaks down the percent he used those fastballs, therefore, you literally fabricated information to drive home your point that Peralta has 2 different fastball pitches (proven false) with crazy movement on both (proven false as one had little horizontal movement) while Woodruff's fastball is dead straight (proven false) and he doesn't have a third pitch (proven false solely by comparing to Kershaw's 3rd pitch being 13%, which is the same percent Davies throws his curve as well). And Woodruff (and Burnes) will no doubt use his 3rd pitch more in a traditional starting role.

 

Back to the original question. I'm starting Peralta in AAA because he needs to control his fastball and secondary pitches better and with AAA now in SA I think it's a great opportunity to do so. His curve and change both have the movement to be very good. He'd then be the 6th starting pitcher and next in line due to injury, ineffectiveness, etc. I agree that Burnes should have a spot locked up. Woodruff I think deserves the opportunity in spring to earn a spot. His whiff rate for his slider is higher than Peralta's curve and his change is slightly higher than Peralta's change as well. Woodruff's GB rate was 22% higher than Peralta and his FB was 14% lower and LD was 3% lower. Woodruff also has better control and command of his pitches. I think the pen experience will greatly help his mentality and him pitching like a bulldog attacking people. Worst case he's in the pen being used exactly how he was this year being extremely effective. Peralta has a higher ceiling than Woodruff but needs more refinement. He's super young so let him work on his control in AAA to start the year and go from there. He'll clearly pitch plenty of innings in 2019 for the Brewers. While Burnes and Woodruff both have growing to do at the MLB level they're essentially finished products and can start right away.

[FVBrewerFan]

So many good points being made on both sides, lost in all the snarkiness unfortunately. For those who want Woodruff, I still haven't seen anyone respond to the huge spikes in OPS the 2nd and 3rd time through the line-up. 3rd time through is one thing, but isn't the 2nd time through a pretty big red flag for someone you want in the rotation?

 

Just asking, neither one is my son or anything so I don't need to be proven right or wrong. This may be a case where it is actually settled in Spring Training. And more than anything else, I think that comes down to ho has refined their off speed pitches. That said, does it really matter that much who is in the rotation opening day? If both are effective, they will both start plenty of games in 2019.

[KeithStone53151]

So many good points being made on both sides, lost in all the snarkiness unfortunately. For those who want Woodruff, I still haven't seen anyone respond to the huge spikes in OPS the 2nd and 3rd time through the line-up. 3rd time through is one thing, but isn't the 2nd time through a pretty big red flag for someone you want in the rotation?

 

Just asking, neither one is my son or anything so I don't need to be proven right or wrong. This may be a case where it is actually settled in Spring Training. And more than anything else, I think that comes down to ho has refined their off speed pitches. That said, does it really matter that much who is in the rotation opening day? If both are effective, they will both start plenty of games in 2019.

 

I personally chalk all that up to small sample. Luck can drive that pretty significantly over 100 or less PA. If you look at his career SP stats, he actually allowed the same number of XBH 1st and 2nd time through and less of those were HR his 2nd time through. A few more singles and a few more walks. I don't believe it's as extreme as is implied, and no less extreme than the average drop a starter will see. Also worth noting, 3rd time through his numbers are actually better than 1st time through...which I think adds credibility to my sample size theory. If you were to combine 2nd and 3rd time through into one stat, you are looking at roughly 780ish OPS against anyone he's seen more than once...whether it be 2, 3, or 4 times. Not great, but less extreme than going from 635 to 909 or whatever the number was.

 

I don't know how to isolate the numbers better, but I suspect Woodruff was much better 2nd time through in September and October than he was earlier in the year. I believe he simply improved over the 3-4 months in AAA and brought those improvements to the MLB level...especially fastball command(and HR hitting ability).

[OnaBadger58]

The beauty of baseball. There is no right or wrong answer. Both these pitchers have the stuff that can project to be a high-end rotation arm. With both their small sample sizes, there is know way to decide who will be the better pitcher.

 

Freddy is 22 and has proven to be effectively wild. I wouldn't be surprised for him to go 7 innings and give up 2 hits, or go 2 innings and walk 5. I suppose you can expect that for a 22 y/o with the type of delivery that he has. Freddy seems to have a combo of Fiers deception with Carter Capps/ Jordan Walden push off the rubber. That's a nice combination to have. His last game pitched vs the Dodgers he went 3 innings, no hits, 3BB, and 6Ks in a game where he was thrown into a fire. 3 weeks in between starts and he was dominant. His highest velocity all year was that game at 95.8 mph. With his growth and maturity, I wouldn't be surprised to see him sitting around 93mph and hitting 96-97 when he needs it. This guy oozes with potential, and frankly, he has already showcased the potential.

 

Woodruff is a prototype for an ace. A big-country 6'4" 97+mph fastball with life, knockout slider, and a change up that is coming along (NLCS game 1: see Max Muncy). His career path reminds me a bit of Jimmy Nelson's. Great minor league numbers, decent to start his career, and you're just waiting for his breakout. I really think 2019 is when Woodruff becomes that dependable #2 type pitcher. You have to think his playoff run reaffirmed that he not only belongs in the majors, but he can go pitch for pitch with some of the best the league has to offer.

 

Overall, Woodruff seems more refined and has the stuff that typically you want your pitchers to have. Freddy just seems to have it and he is so young and still developing. Unless the Brewers can get a game-changing player added to their team, I would have no issue keeping these guys on the squad. Heck, I wouldn't be opposed to see Woodruff/Hader tandem in the bullpen. That could cut every game to a 6 inning game.

[trwi7]

Holding the ball with the same exact grip but over different parts of the ball *doesn't* equate to two different fastballs. A fourseamer, twoseamer, cutter, sinker all have different *grips* and that's what makes them *different pitches*. Look at the pics of Peralta in that Fangraphs link by KeithStone - it's the exact same grip. It's why everyone solely uses *fourseam* for his fastball because that's what his grip indicates. Moving the ball in your hand but using the same grip allows one to change the movement of the pitch. It's no different than me holding a traditional fourseamer while changing my arm slot from straight over the top to submarine. Did I just throw two different fastballs? No. I threw two fourseamers but the movement was different.

 

Woodruff threw 61% fastball, 24.7% slider, 11.4% change, 2.9% sinker. Peralta threw 77.7% fastball, 19.5% curve, 2.7% change.

 

The information is listed above to counter another factual (cough) point of yours. You stated Peralta has 2 fastballs, which then means his 3rd pitch (curve) is thrown more than Woodruff's 3rd (change) - as in Peralta actually has a 3rd pitch whereas Woodruff doesn't. But how would you factually prove that when you never provided everyone with the percent Peralta throws each of those fastballs? For example, if he throws one of those fastballs 85% of the time and the other 15% of the time then that means his final stats would be 66% 1st fastball, 19% curve, 11.6% 2nd fastball, 3% change. *Which would mean his 3rd pitch (2nd fastball) is thrown exactly the same amount as Woodruff's 3rd pitch* proving your initial statement wrong at that point. There's no information (to my knowledge) that breaks down the percent he used those fastballs, therefore, you literally fabricated information to drive home your point that Peralta has 2 different fastball pitches (proven false) with crazy movement on both (proven false as one had little horizontal movement) while Woodruff's fastball is dead straight (proven false) and he doesn't have a third pitch (proven false solely by comparing to Kershaw's 3rd pitch being 13%, which is the same percent Davies throws his curve as well). And Woodruff (and Burnes) will no doubt use his 3rd pitch more in a traditional starting role.

 

Back to the original question. I'm starting Peralta in AAA because he needs to control his fastball and secondary pitches better and with AAA now in SA I think it's a great opportunity to do so. His curve and change both have the movement to be very good. He'd then be the 6th starting pitcher and next in line due to injury, ineffectiveness, etc. I agree that Burnes should have a spot locked up. Woodruff I think deserves the opportunity in spring to earn a spot. His whiff rate for his slider is higher than Peralta's curve and his change is slightly higher than Peralta's change as well. Woodruff's GB rate was 22% higher than Peralta and his FB was 14% lower and LD was 3% lower. Woodruff also has better control and command of his pitches. I think the pen experience will greatly help his mentality and him pitching like a bulldog attacking people. Worst case he's in the pen being used exactly how he was this year being extremely effective. Peralta has a higher ceiling than Woodruff but needs more refinement. He's super young so let him work on his control in AAA to start the year and go from there. He'll clearly pitch plenty of innings in 2019 for the Brewers. While Burnes and Woodruff both have growing to do at the MLB level they're essentially finished products and can start right away.

 

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Most of the posts in this topic have been pure opinion. I come in with stats, facts, and yes opinion and I'm the one who is doing the disservice. OK. I guess this place prefers wild rampant inaccurate speculation.

 

Thankfully this will get settled on the field. This place eats a lot of crow. This is why.

 

Except for, you know, all the people also bringing facts.

 

I love it when people bring facts. I wish there were more.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I can shed some light on this. Technically, Peralta does NOT throw a cutter. He holds the four seem fastball differently to give that pitch some of the effect of a cutter. That's the pitch he throws low, and has a lot of movement.

 

The traditional 4 seam fastball he throws high, and generally does not have a lot of movement. Although (and this is my eye test only, and comments from opposing coaches/ players) it does "seem" to rise, which is why he gets so many swing/miss on that pitch outside the zone.

 

Anyhow, my guess is that's why Fangraphs doesn't differentiate between the two fastballs, because technically they are both 4 seam fastballs. To a hitter, they are very different though.

 

Very accurate, both 4 seamers, with the grip rotated on one where the resulting action is that of a cutter.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

And That, correct me of I'm wrong, but it's because they combine all fastballs as one statistic.

They do not. There are at least three species of fastball they assign pitches to: Fourseam, Cutter, Sinker. There are Splitters as well, if you want to call that a fastball variation. There may be more as well. Check out Wade Miley's page.

 

Got it, thank you, that helps.