Woodruff vs Peralta

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Woodruff just needs to develop a 3rd pitch. His troubles going through an order even a 2nd time are real. That's no fluke. When you throw a straight fastball and only have the slider to go with it, batters are tuned in and ready to tee off on a repeat viewing. Woodruff really needs that 3rd pitch.

 

In terms of sharing facts, you should note Eye Black's stats on Woodruff's 3rd pitch. FB and Slider were his heavy two, but he was still throwing 11% change ups. By comparison, Kershaw's third pitch averages about 13%.

 

True but you'd have to look at the numbers of how batters fared hitting that changeup. As I've said before every pitcher has the ability to throw 3,4, even 5 pitches. But if hitters tee off on any of them they're not effective pitches. I'd love to see the numbers yielded on Woodruff's change. Just because a Kershaw and a Woodruff throw their 3rd pitch approximately the same percentage of time does not mean with the same result or effectiveness.

 

The fact is Woodruff's opponent OPS is .889 the second time batters get to face him. That's a problem he must overcome.

 

In relief, not only was Woodruff able to throw harder, he was able to get away with sticking to his two best pitches. Neither the velocity nor the ability to beat batters with those 2 pitches has held up beyond relief. All hope is not lost. Either we've got a kick ass mulit-inning reliever or initial out getter on our hands or Woodruff continues to develop and we've got something more.

 

Peralta's advantages are youth, movement on his pitches, effectively having 3 different pitches with his 2 very different-acting fastballs in addition to his curve, and having shown the ability to get batters out 2 even 3 times through a batting order.

[KeithStone53151]

First off, both pitchers have a 3rd offering. Woodruff's is currently a usable mlb offering that he threw 12% off the time and is a solid pitch. Peraltas changeup needs refinement. Add in the age difference and i think woodruff opening in the rotation with peralta in aaa makes sense. Both pitchers are still young and will likely improve their offspeed offerings going forward, especially peralta at age 22.

[KeithStone53151]

Woodruff has significantly improved between his 1st stint at the mlb level last year and his 2nd. I wouldn't read to much into 2nd time through stats for him. Especially considering how few starts he's made at the mlb level

[True Blue Brew Crew]

First off, both pitchers have a 3rd offering. Woodruff's is currently a usable mlb offering that he threw 12% off the time and is a solid pitch. Peraltas changeup needs refinement. Add in the age difference and i think woodruff opening in the rotation with peralta in aaa makes sense. Both pitchers are still young and will likely improve their offspeed offerings going forward, especially peralta at age 22.

 

Peralta's changeup would be a 4th pitch. Peralta already effectively uses his curve as a 3rd offering. Peralta's #1 and #2 pitches are two dramatically different acting fastballs. One a 4-seamer, one a cutter. Both with a ton of movement. He throws them both equally. On the stat sheet they both count as fastballs which appears to have confused you and clearly has fooled many into thinking his curve is his 2nd and only other offering. Woodruff has not had success with his change which is his 3rd pitch nor has he had success a 2nd time through an order. Peralta had had success a 2nd and 3rd time through.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Woodruff has significantly improved between his 1st stint at the mlb level last year and his 2nd. I wouldn't read to much into 2nd time through stats for him. Especially considering how few starts he's made at the mlb level

 

I get why people choose not to read much into it. I clearly do choose to put some stock into it. They tried Woodruff as a starter and didn't come back to him when there was a clear need midseason. That says a lot. I believe because they saw the same number I keep citing. Woodruff doesn't YET have an EFFECTIVE 3rd offering to keep hitters off balance. The used him out of the pen because he didn't need to use the change in relief. They promptly made sure not to let him get into trouble a 2nd time through.

 

I point out these things not to diminish Woodruff as a prospect. He some improvement on his changeup away from being on par with Peralta and Burnes. I prefer they keep all 3 of Peralta, Burnes, and Woodruff. Lots of misinformation and misunderstanding of these two that I keep seeing and trying to add to the discussion with a more accurate and complete picture.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Again I think people are being fooled by Woodruff the multi inning reliever and Woodruff the starter. As a starter he's not throwing 97 like he is out of the pen. And since his fastball doesn't move like a Peralta's does, he's more in need of that 3rd pitch being a good one. A straight fastball at 94-95 and a slider isn't going to cut it facing MLB hitters mulitple times. He really needs to changeup to become an effective pitch. I still believe it can.

[OldHeidelberg]

What is Woodruff's service time status? I know we were all baffled by him not being brought up in August when we seemed to need a starter but he got maybe more service time then they wanted in 17 by going directly to the DL after being called up. Maybe putting him in the AAA/MLB bullpen shuffle was a way of saving a year down the road? In Baseball reference they list his earliest FA as 2025.

[DHonks]

Peralta could benefit from some time in the pen much like Woodruff did. I've always liked it when pitchers learn how to attack hitters in the pen, then transition to the rotation

[trwi7]

Again I think people are being fooled by Woodruff the multi inning reliever and Woodruff the starter. As a starter he's not throwing 97 like he is out of the pen. And since his fastball doesn't move like a Peralta's does, he's more in need of that 3rd pitch being a good one. A straight fastball at 94-95 and a slider isn't going to cut it facing MLB hitters mulitple times. He really needs to changeup to become an effective pitch. I still believe it can.

 

He has averaged 94.3 mph in his starts in the majors and has numerous pitches in the 96-98 range. And I don't know where this lack of movement on his fastball comes from.

 

Brandon Woodruff has thrown 1,642 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2017 and 2018, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season and the MLB Postseason. In 2018, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (96mph) and Slider (88mph), also mixing in a Change (85mph) and Sinker (96mph). He also rarely throws a Curve (80mph).

 

His fourseam fastball is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' fourseamers, generates more whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers' fourseamers, has some natural sinking action and has well above average velo. His slider is much harder than usual and results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers' sliders. His change has slight armside fade. His sinker generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers' sinkers, is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers' sinkers and is blazing fast. His curve (take this with a grain of salt because he's only thrown 14 of them in 2018) generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers' curves, has very little depth, has primarily 12-6 movement, results in more flyballs compared to other pitchers' curves and is slightly harder than usual.

 

And what PITCH f/x says about Peralta.

 

Freddy Peralta has thrown 1,429 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system in 2018, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season and the MLB Postseason. In 2018, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (91mph), also mixing in a Curve (77mph). He also rarely throws a Change (87mph).

 

His fourseam fastball generates a high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers' fourseamers, has much less armside movement than typical, results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers' fourseamers, has slightly below average velo and has some added backspin. His curve has primarily 12-6 movement and results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers' curves. His change is much firmer than usual, results in more flyballs compared to other pitchers' changeups and has slight cut action.

''

 

This thought that Woodruff's fastball lacks movement, especially less than Peralta is one of the more ridiculous things I've seen.

[OnaBadger58]

I want to see Woodruff hit dingers, therefore I want Woodruff starting every fifth day.

[bork]

I want to see Woodruff hit dingers, therefore I want Woodruff starting every fifth day.

 

Yeah, I was wondering if his bat has any influence on him being a starter, all things considered.

[KeithStone53151]

Again I think people are being fooled by Woodruff the multi inning reliever and Woodruff the starter. As a starter he's not throwing 97 like he is out of the pen. And since his fastball doesn't move like a Peralta's does, he's more in need of that 3rd pitch being a good one. A straight fastball at 94-95 and a slider isn't going to cut it facing MLB hitters mulitple times. He really needs to changeup to become an effective pitch. I still believe it can.

 

Woodruff started 4 games this year on 19 appearances, he was a reliever at the mlb level most of the year. At what point are you trying to claim he abandoned his changeup as he was shifted to relief? What's far more likely is you are just making stuff up. Just like his fastball having no movement is made up, most of us watch these game...if you try to make stuff up to drive your point home, others will catch it and call you on it. I've seen Woodruff throw plenty of changeups in September and the post season, I've also seen him throw a fastball generally with arm-side movement...as in not straight. The only thing I've noted that wasn't simply made up, is that he had a bit of a bump in fastball velocity out of the bullpen. Fangraphs had him at 94.7 in 2017(when he only started) and 95.8 in 2018 which he was mostly a reliever. You could probably say he's 94-96 as a starter and 95-98 as a reliever. Those couple ticks matter, but his ability to locate was far more important though than that extra 1-2 ticks.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Again I think people are being fooled by Woodruff the multi inning reliever and Woodruff the starter. As a starter he's not throwing 97 like he is out of the pen. And since his fastball doesn't move like a Peralta's does, he's more in need of that 3rd pitch being a good one. A straight fastball at 94-95 and a slider isn't going to cut it facing MLB hitters mulitple times. He really needs to changeup to become an effective pitch. I still believe it can.

 

Woodruff started 4 games this year on 19 appearances, he was a reliever at the mlb level most of the year. At what point are you trying to claim he abandoned his changeup as he was shifted to relief? What's far more likely is you are just making stuff up. Just like his fastball having no movement is made up, most of us watch these game...if you try to make stuff up to drive your point home, others will catch it and call you on it. I've seen Woodruff throw plenty of changeups in September and the post season, I've also seen him throw a fastball generally with arm-side movement...as in not straight. The only thing I've noted that wasn't simply made up, is that he had a bit of a bump in fastball velocity out of the bullpen. Fangraphs had him at 94.7 in 2017(when he only started) and 95.8 in 2018 which he was mostly a reliever. You could probably say he's 94-96 as a starter and 95-98 as a reliever. Those couple ticks matter, but his ability to locate was far more important though than that extra 1-2 ticks.

 

I don't understand why it just can't be accepted that some posters like Woodruff more than they like Peralta. I'm one of them. I really like Peralta, but I think he has more flame-out potential, mostly because he is small. Woodruff, on the other hand, is pretty much the body type you see when you look up "workhorse starting pitcher" in the encyclopedia. Now, that doesn't mean that he will make it and Freddy won't. All it means is that I personally like Woodruff's upside better, and if they were going to trade one, I'd prefer it be Peralta.

[homer]

I think I'd have a lot more confidence in Peralta's long term future if he threw in the mid 90's. I think he averaged like 91mph on his fastball. I just feel like the deception can only get you so far without being able to back it up with a bit more oomph. Do I want the Brewers to trade him? No, but if he were to be traded for a catcher or 2nd baseman or whatever I would be ok with it.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Again I think people are being fooled by Woodruff the multi inning reliever and Woodruff the starter. As a starter he's not throwing 97 like he is out of the pen. And since his fastball doesn't move like a Peralta's does, he's more in need of that 3rd pitch being a good one. A straight fastball at 94-95 and a slider isn't going to cut it facing MLB hitters mulitple times. He really needs to changeup to become an effective pitch. I still believe it can.

 

He has averaged 94.3 mph in his starts in the majors and has numerous pitches in the 96-98 range. And I don't know where this lack of movement on his fastball comes from.

 

Brandon Woodruff has thrown 1,642 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2017 and 2018, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season and the MLB Postseason. In 2018, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (96mph) and Slider (88mph), also mixing in a Change (85mph) and Sinker (96mph). He also rarely throws a Curve (80mph).

 

His fourseam fastball is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' fourseamers, generates more whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers' fourseamers, has some natural sinking action and has well above average velo. His slider is much harder than usual and results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers' sliders. His change has slight armside fade. His sinker generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers' sinkers, is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers' sinkers and is blazing fast. His curve (take this with a grain of salt because he's only thrown 14 of them in 2018) generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers' curves, has very little depth, has primarily 12-6 movement, results in more flyballs compared to other pitchers' curves and is slightly harder than usual.

 

And what PITCH f/x says about Peralta.

 

Freddy Peralta has thrown 1,429 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system in 2018, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season and the MLB Postseason. In 2018, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (91mph), also mixing in a Curve (77mph). He also rarely throws a Change (87mph).

 

His fourseam fastball generates a high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers' fourseamers, has much less armside movement than typical, results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers' fourseamers, has slightly below average velo and has some added backspin. His curve has primarily 12-6 movement and results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers' curves. His change is much firmer than usual, results in more flyballs compared to other pitchers' changeups and has slight cut action.

''

 

This thought that Woodruff's fastball lacks movement, especially less than Peralta is one of the more ridiculous things I've seen.

 

It's certainly no secret that Peralta has unreal movement that Woodruff can nowhere near match. The players themselves both on the Brewers and opposing teams have commented on Peralta's silly movement. Yet you call the notion "ridiculous". OK.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Most of the posts in this topic have been pure opinion. I come in with stats, facts, and yes opinion and I'm the one who is doing the disservice. OK. I guess this place prefers wild rampant inaccurate speculation.

 

Thankfully this will get settled on the field. This place eats a lot of crow. This is why.

[And That]

It's not just Peralta's movement, it's movement relative to the release point. Peralta gets so much unbelievable extension that any movement his pitches have gets magnified because the batter has that much less time to react to it.

 

I do think his change has more upside than Woodruff's, FWIW. Peralta's induced some pretty ugly swings on that pitch in the minors.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

It's irrefutable fact that Peralta has greater movement on his fastball than Woodruff.

It's irrefutable fact that Peralta gets more use out of and has more success with a 3rd pitch (curveball) than Woodruff's 3rd (changeup).

It's irrefutable fact that Peralta has had much more success multiple times through a lineup than Woodruff.

It's irrefutable fact that Peralta is 3.5 years younger than Woodruff.

 

If anyone wants to argue any of these facts, do so at your own risk of looking very silly.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

It's not just Peralta's movement, it's movement relative to the release point. Peralta gets so much unbelievable extension that any movement his pitches have gets magnified because the batter has that much less time to react to it.

 

I do think his change has more upside than Woodruff's, FWIW. Peralta's induced some pretty ugly swings on that pitch in the minors.

 

Yes. I pointed that out earlier as well. Completely glossed over.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Most of the posts in this topic have been pure opinion. I come in with stats, facts, and yes opinion and I'm the one who is doing the disservice. OK. I guess this place prefers wild rampant inaccurate speculation.

 

Thankfully this will get settled on the field. This place eats a lot of crow. This is why.

 

I think this probably has more to do with how you present your information than the information itself. You are basically calling everyone who doesn't agree with your opinion uninformed. That isn't going to play well.

 

That said, I totally get why you are excited about Peralta. His stuff, when on, is electric. But ... it is easy, too, to see after looking at how Burnes and Woodruff performed in September and in the playoffs how many fans can rank Peralta #3 of the "big 3" young pitchers, therefore making him the most expendable in a deal. It's certainly a terrific situation for the Brewers to be in.

[TURBO]

 

If anyone wants to argue any of these facts, do so at your own risk of looking very silly.

 

*sigh*

[sveumrules]

Movement profiles for Woodruff & Peralta fastballs per Brooks Badeball...

 

Woodruff 2017: -4.60 Horizontal 8.13 Vertical

Woodruff 2018: -5.35 Horizontal 8.17 Vertical

Peralta 2018: -1.68 Horizontal 10.11 Vertical

 

Hard to say who has "more" or "less" movement, just that it's different.

 

One would think if Woodruff has better velocity (definitely), better command (probably) & better movement (maybe) that the results on his fastball should be better than Peralta's to this point. They haven't been.

 

Career FB pitch values:

 

Woodruff +3.5

Peralta +10.1

[KeithStone53151]

It's certainly no secret that Peralta has unreal movement that Woodruff can nowhere near match. The players themselves both on the Brewers and opposing teams have commented on Peralta's silly movement. Yet you call the notion "ridiculous". OK.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/freddy-peraltas-fastballs/

 

This is the article I believe you are referring to with Peralta. He throws a mostly straight 4 seam, and a cut fastball that comes in a couple MPH below the 4 seam. The cut fastball has significant cutting movement, while the 4 seam is pretty straight. The 4 seam doesn't really break as far arm side as you seam to imply. This is somewhat the type of repetoire that Kluber uses, except he actually does have 2(possibly 3) fastballs that break the opposite direction(the 3rd would be 4 seam/straight), along with a breaking pitch. Kluber throws most of his fastballs in the 92-95 range and commands it all very well. Kluber is much moreso the exception than the rule, it's not common for starting pitchers to be so dominant with a number of different fastballs and a good breaking pitch. Unless his changeup comes around(which he's young, it absolutely still can), he'll have to become more of a fastball artist like Kluber to find consistent success as a starter.

 

Another example I can think of is Jake Arrieta. Throws a sinker/slider, curve, and occasional changeup. The slider is has more movement and is a bit more of a change of pace from the sinker than Peralta at this point...but it's pretty close. The basically 3 offerings(excluding changeup) worked for Arrieta for a bit, but once his velocity dipped he had to adapt and started throwing more changeups.

 

I guess my point in outlining that, yes he does technically have 3 pitches...4 if you want to count the changeup. But those 3 pitches might not be enough as the 2 fastballs aren't quite as different as other similar examples. You need a better way to keep guys off balance...the changeup is probably the key for him.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Most of the posts in this topic have been pure opinion. I come in with stats, facts, and yes opinion and I'm the one who is doing the disservice. OK. I guess this place prefers wild rampant inaccurate speculation.

 

Thankfully this will get settled on the field. This place eats a lot of crow. This is why.

 

I think this probably has more to do with how you present your information than the information itself. You are basically calling everyone who doesn't agree with your opinion uninformed. That isn't going to play well.

 

That said, I totally get why you are excited about Peralta. His stuff, when on, is electric. But ... it is easy, too, to see after looking at how Burnes and Woodruff performed in September and in the playoffs how many fans can rank Peralta #3 of the "big 3" young pitchers, therefore making him the most expendable in a deal. It's certainly a terrific situation for the Brewers to be in.

 

Yes I'm admittedly frustrated. I keep seeing the same misinformation over and over. Thus why I say uninformed. "Woodruff struggles begin the 3rd time through", "Peralta only throws 2 pitches", "Peralta seems like the one who gets hit harder as the game goes on" are obvious ones. Then there are subtle ones which I don't blame people for not knowing such as how their velocity's are essentially equal given Peralta's ridiculous extension.

 

So I choose to keep repeating myself until the false info ceases to be spread. As tiresome as it is to some of you to have me keep saying these things, it's just as tiresome to me to keep seeing the same false things said here. At least my repetition is factual.

 

I mean, we just had someone claim that Woodruff and Peralta have the same amount of movement and any claim otherwise was ridiculous. Really?

 

All this discussion proves is that you can inform, inform, inform, and if the facts don't align with someone's previously formed opinion which was shaped by falsehoods, it simply won't matter. That' the way of the world today though. So really all I hope to be able to do is have the facts take root with more people. And believe it or not, I think that's happened.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

If you guys can't remember what opposing players have said about Peralta's movement or what Yelich said he was seeing from the outfield, that's unfortunate.

 

That aside, it's simple baseball logic that tells you how 91-92 can induce more strikeouts (11.03 K/9) and fewer hits (.187 BAA) than 95 or even 97. It's one word, 8 letters, begins with "M" and ends with "T".