Seattle Mariners

[cvollbrecht]

Paxton & Segura

For

Aggy, Peralta, Lutz, Dubon

 

Cain - CF

Segura - 2B

Yelich - LF

Braun - 1B

Shaw - 3B

Santana - RF

Pina/Nottingham - C

Arcia - SS

 

Paxton

Chacin

Burnes

Nelson

Davies/Woodruff/FA

[True Blue Brew Crew]

And people say Peralta isn't being thrown into every trade.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

And people say Peralta isn't being thrown into every trade.

 

Gotta give up value to get it back. Peralta has a lot of value.

[trwi7]

Paxton & Segura

For

Aggy, Peralta, Lutz, Dubon

 

Cain - CF

Segura - 2B

Yelich - LF

Braun - 1B

Shaw - 3B

Santana - RF

Pina/Nottingham - C

Arcia - SS

 

Paxton

Chacin

Burnes

Nelson

Davies/Woodruff/FA

 

Wouldn't even get you Paxton.

[Eye Black]

The more I think about this, I think dealing with the Mariners to acquire James Paxton might be the perfect off-season move for the Brewers. Obviously acquiring a lefty starter to anchor the rotation for the next two years would be great. I also think the Mariners are in a spot where they will value major league talent with several years of control left. I don’t know exactly what combination of players would interest them, but I think Dipoto could be enticed by players such as Mauricio Dubon, Jesús Aguilar, Brandon Woodruff, former Mariners prospect Freddy Peralta, and even possibly a player like Domingo Santana. A lot of rebuilding teams are looking deeper into the farm system, but I think the Mariners will try to flip guys on their current roster for major leaguers with longer team control. To be clear, I also think the Brewers would have to give up prospects as well, but I think it would take a combination of 1 or 2 MLB ready players with 1 or 2 prospects to get Paxton.

[splitterpfj]

Some Mariners fans I know have a Corbin Burnes obsession - so much so, that they’re hoping the Brewers get Paxton.

 

I’m just not a fan of dealing Burnes for pitching - I like what I’ve seen enough to bet on him in the rotation.

[monty57]

From MLBtraderumors discussion of potential landing spots for Paxton:

 

Milwaukee Brewers

 

Like the A’s, the Brewers went a long way last season with a rotation that didn’t look great on paper. Journeyman Wade Miley was one of the unit’s key contributors, but he’s now a free agent. Holdovers Jhoulys Chacin and Chase Anderson were the Brewers’ only other regular starters who managed sub-4.00 ERAs, though their peripherals weren’t as encouraging. And Brent Suter, who threw the fourth-most innings among the team’s starters in 2018, will sit out most or all of next season after undergoing TJ surgery in the summer. Along with Chacin and Anderson, the Brewers have a cavalcade of other options for their 2019 rotation (Jimmy Nelson, Freddy Peralta, Junior Guerra, Zach Davies, Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes), but it would be quite optimistic to expect Paxton-type production out of any of them. Perhaps the Brewers will be in on Paxton, then, but adding him may cost them some of their pitching depth. Any of Peralta, Woodruff or Burnes could draw Seattle’s interest. Per BA, Burnes (No. 56) is one of the Brewers’ two top-100 prospects, along with second baseman Keston Hiura (No. 33).

 

I'm not a big fan of trading away talented prospects, but it's interesting to think about. Peralta seems to be #3 of the Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta trio, so he's about as expendable as a talented, young starting pitcher could be. Ray is a very solid prospect, but we have out outfield shored up for years. Thames wouldn't be a target for Seattle, but we don't have a lot of extra salary room, so his $6M would help offset the $9M we'd be picking up.

 

So, would a deal of Peralta, Thames, Ray for Paxton make sense? The Rays would get an MLB-Ready starting pitching prospect, a LH power bat to fill in for the loss of Cruz at DH, and an exciting "five tool" OF prospect in the upper minors. Plus, they'd shave several million dollars from payroll. The Brewers would get two years of a top-of-the-rotation starter.

 

I hate trading away good prospects, as the Brewers will need a lot of pre-arby guys if they want to be good for more than a short "window," but Peralta may be relegated to bullpen duty if he is truly behind Burnes and Woodruff, which would diminish his value. Thames is expendable with the emergence of Aguilar. The one I think could hurt the worst would be Ray, who could be a very good MLB player.

[KeithStone53151]

If the Mariners would make that move, I'd do that for sure. It probably makes us "out" on any Realmuto situation, but having an arm like Paxton lead our rotation would add way more value than Realmuto in my opinion. That said, I feel like Mariners will want and be able to get a bit more than that offer.

[KeithStone53151]

Some Mariners fans I know have a Corbin Burnes obsession - so much so, that they’re hoping the Brewers get Paxton.

 

I’m just not a fan of dealing Burnes for pitching - I like what I’ve seen enough to bet on him in the rotation.

 

Couldn't agree more. He's the most untouchable prospect(or just graduated) that we have in my opinion, I think he's more valuable than Hiura personally...though I'm probably in the minority there.

[Boomer5]

Ray isn’t a 5 tool prospect because he can’t hit and his defense is meh. Power and Speed for sure. 5 tool no.

 

Aguilar and Thames aren’t meaningful trade chips when you are talking elite deals. The best Jesus is a 1-2 war reliever with a few years of control. Thames has negative value at this point.

[Boomer5]

If we think Peralta can sustain his success we should be keeping him.

[And That]

Paxton's going to make about $22 million over the next two seasons and if healthy-ish, should produce in the neighborhood of 8 WAR (which might be generous). Roughly speaking, if WAR is about $9 million, that's $50 million in excess value. Just using Fangraphs' new prospect valuation model, I would have a straight up Burnes (60 OFP) for Paxton trade as an overpay on the Brewers' side.

 

I have Ray as a 55 OFP guy, which would be a slight underpay in a straight up deal. Lutz and Erceg would be about in the same boat. So maybe Ray plus Devin Williams or something. If you think Ray is 50 OFP instead...

 

A 50 OFP pitcher and a 50 OFP position player equal just about Paxton's excess value, which could mean something in the neighborhood of Adrian Houser and Troy Stokes. Or Houser and Ray. I think Zack Brown and Ray would be an overpay.

 

And there's too much injury risk with Paxton to overpay for him. The Brewers don't need him that badly.

[Eye Black]

Along those same lines, I predict when Paxton is ultimately traded this offseason the national reaction is going to be surprise that the Mariners didn't get more in return. I don't think they are going to get a top 30 prospect in baseball for him, I think it will be a few solid pieces that may even include a player or two that are already in MLB. I think a player such as J.T. Realmuto for instance is going to fetch a significantly larger return for two years of control.

[KeithStone53151]

See I tend to disagree, I view Paxton as the more valuable player of the two. Clearly you have some solid, measureable support for your argument, I'm not going to try to dispute that. It's honestly kind of shocking how differently we view the return on this guy. I feel like I tend to be fairly objective, but if anything run on the side favorable to the Brewers. In this case though, I'm way way on the other end of the spectrum from both of you. Hopefully there are some moves and this ends up being a fun winter.

[And That]

Punting on Paxton for a second, I wonder if they'd do a Woodruff/Houser/Diplan for Segura/Colome deal. Assuming Segura would approve the deal.

[3and2Fastball]

There really isn't anyone available from the Mariners that would compel me to trade away Burnes or Woodruff. That's all well and good that the Mariners are having a dumpster fire garage sale, but I like the bright future of our prospects more.

[JDBrewCrew]

Punting on Paxton for a second, I wonder if they'd do a Woodruff/Houser/Diplan for Segura/Colome deal. Assuming Segura would approve the deal.

 

Sign me up for this one.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Peralta seems to be #3 of the Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta trio, so he's about as expendable as a talented, young starting pitcher could be.

 

Cringe. Why would the 22 year old with the best numbers be #3 of the trio and the most expendable?

[Boomer5]

Paxton is one of the most sought after pitchers in baseball. A 30 year old lefty with two years of control? 1.09 Whip, 11.7 K/9. We just saw what guys like Happ and even Gio went for and that was 1-2 months and they aren’t anywhere near Paxton to say the very least.

 

No we won’t get him for Ray and/or a bunch of B/C prospects.

[monty57]

Peralta seems to be #3 of the Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta trio, so he's about as expendable as a talented, young starting pitcher could be.

 

Cringe. Why would the 22 year old with the best numbers be #3 of the trio and the most expendable?

 

By "as expendable as a talented, young starting pitcher could be," I mean that talented, young starting pitchers are not expendable. It should take a huge return for the Brewers to ever think of trading away a talented, young starting pitcher. Right now, for maybe the first time in team history, the Brewers have multiple talented, young starting pitchers who have shown some degree of success at the MLB level, so while I don't want to trade any of them, Peralta is probably "as expendable as a talented young starting pitcher could be."

 

As I mentioned in the post, I don't like trading prospects for short-term players. We'd have Paxton for two-years, while giving up 12 years of Peralta and Ray, plus whatever Thames has left. That could help put us over the top for the short-term, while potentially seriously hurting us in the long term if Ray and Peralta pan out. I think the Brewers should hold on to their good prospects, and would be happier with a quiet offseason than one in which we trade away a lot of future talent for a better chance to win in 2019.

 

I just saw the article and posted it for discussion. We traded away young talent this year to try to improve mid-season, and the decision is there as to whether we should trade more of our future to help out in 2019. I'm not a fan of that, but right now Peralta is less likely than Burnes and probably Woodruff to be in the starting rotation on opening day 2019. I'd personally start him in AAA as one of the first call-ups when a starter is needed, but I have a bad feeling that the Brewers will feel the need to keep him in the bullpen in a "right handed Hader" role, burning his service time to help win in 2019. If he spends a year or two in the pen, thereby having 1-2 less years of service time, he will have less value two years from now then he does now, so if that is the plan, I would entertain the option of trading him. Conversely, if they think he will become a solid starting pitcher that will have a spot in the Brewer rotation for the next half-decade, they should not consider trading him for a short-term upgrade.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Peralta seems to be #3 of the Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta trio, so he's about as expendable as a talented, young starting pitcher could be.

 

Cringe. Why would the 22 year old with the best numbers be #3 of the trio and the most expendable?

 

By "as expendable as a talented, young starting pitcher could be," I mean that talented, young starting pitchers are not expendable. It should take a huge return for the Brewers to ever think of trading away a talented, young starting pitcher. Right now, for maybe the first time in team history, the Brewers have multiple talented, young starting pitchers who have shown some degree of success at the MLB level, so while I don't want to trade any of them, Peralta is probably "as expendable as a talented young starting pitcher could be."

 

As I mentioned in the post, I don't like trading prospects for short-term players. We'd have Paxton for two-years, while giving up 12 years of Peralta and Ray, plus whatever Thames has left. That could help put us over the top for the short-term, while potentially seriously hurting us in the long term if Ray and Peralta pan out. I think the Brewers should hold on to their good prospects, and would be happier with a quiet offseason than one in which we trade away a lot of future talent for a better chance to win in 2019.

 

I just saw the article and posted it for discussion. We traded away young talent this year to try to improve mid-season, and the decision is there as to whether we should trade more of our future to help out in 2019. I'm not a fan of that, but right now Peralta is less likely than Burnes and probably Woodruff to be in the starting rotation on opening day 2019. I'd personally start him in AAA as one of the first call-ups when a starter is needed, but I have a bad feeling that the Brewers will feel the need to keep him in the bullpen in a "right handed Hader" role, burning his service time to help win in 2019. If he spends a year or two in the pen, thereby having 1-2 less years of service time, he will have less value two years from now then he does now, so if that is the plan, I would entertain the option of trading him. Conversely, if they think he will become a solid starting pitcher that will have a spot in the Brewer rotation for the next half-decade, they should not consider trading him for a short-term upgrade.

 

Ah, I gotcha. I agree with what you're saying so far as the Brewers might be positioned to offer up the highest value young starting pitching talent on the market. That's a strange sentence for me to type given young starting pitching is worth even more to a small market team like Milwaukee. But if Stearns deems they have enough to part with one for a large enough haul I could go along with it. Where I disagree is with Peralta being the furthest from the rotation. Since young pitching is a commodity, the Brewers should be able to part with the one who holds the least value to them and still get a great return. To me the most expendable is Woodruff. I've belabored those reasons elsewhere on this forum so I'll leave it at that.

[JosephC]

I'd pass on Paxton and Segura. Paxton's high mark for innings is 160 1/3 and that's the only time he's been over 140 innings. The Brewers would have to dedicate all those prospects and then 9 million dollars on top of that. I'd rather just stick with what we've got rather than make a big acquisition like this for a guy that misses time every year. Segura makes 57 million over the next four years and that would be a huge commitment for a player that really under-achieved the last couple of seasons in Milwaukee.

[JosephC]

Along those same lines, I predict when Paxton is ultimately traded this offseason the national reaction is going to be surprise that the Mariners didn't get more in return. I don't think they are going to get a top 30 prospect in baseball for him, I think it will be a few solid pieces that may even include a player or two that are already in MLB. I think a player such as J.T. Realmuto for instance is going to fetch a significantly larger return for two years of control.

 

I agree. His fWAR is considerably higher than his bWAR. Average annual WAR between the two comes out to about 3.3. Depth Charts and Steamer project him for 4.4 WAR in 2019, to me that seems high based on his history and innings total. I think 6.6 WAR total over the next two seasons is pretty fair. Say 9.25 million per WAR in 2019/2020 and that puts his value at 61.05 million. He's estimated to make 9 million this year and probably is around 12 million next year for a total of 21 million. So the surplus value is right around 40 million. That's pretty much the number that Sonny Gray was at when the A's traded him. IMO Brandon Woodruff + Corey Ray + Lucas Erceg could get a deal done.

 

But it heavily depends on the model. If you value him like Fangraphs, then the package would have to be much better. If you value him like Baseball Reference, then Woodruff + Ray + Erceg would probably be an overpay.

[Vollbc74]

Rosenthal reporting:

 

#Padres have discussed a trade with #Mariners in which they would acquire SS Jean Segura and RHP Mike Leake for OF Wil Myers, sources tell The Athletic. Leake would need to waive his no-trade clause for deal to occur, and also is weighing other potential options, one source says.

[adambr2]

Rosenthal reporting:

 

#Padres have discussed a trade with #Mariners in which they would acquire SS Jean Segura and RHP Mike Leake for OF Wil Myers, sources tell The Athletic. Leake would need to waive his no-trade clause for deal to occur, and also is weighing other potential options, one source says.

 

 

Umm. Wot?

 

If we can afford the salary dump that the Mariners are obviously trying to do, I would make a better offer than that.