Best/Worst drafts

[colbyjack]

I've been compiling a list over the last week or two on my thoughts of the best & worst drafts of 2004. Without further ado...

 

Best drafts:

 

Minnesota Twins:

Trevor Plouffe (1)

Glen Perkins (1)

Kyle Waldrop (1)

Matt Fox (1S)

Jay Rainville (1S)

Anthony Swarzak (2)

 

Of their top picks, all but Perkins & Rainville have signed, and both are expected to do so before the summer is over. All but Plouffe are pitchers, and Plouffe could have been drafted as a pitcher, but his upside is greater as a SS. Their draft is definitely better for picking out players they could sign given their extra picks. Waldrop was a big-time Vanderbilt commit, and Swarzak was leaning towards LSU.

 

Dodgers:

Scott Elbert (1)

Blake DeWitt (1)

Justin Orenduff (1S)

Blake Johnson (2)

Jeff Larish (13)

David Price (19)

Michael Branham (39)

Troy Grundy (41)

 

I bring up Price, Branham & Grundy because they're all top prep pitchers that fell due to signability concerns. The Dodgers have a strong track record signing such late rounders to contracts given their budget flexibility, which will also aid them in attempting to sign Jeff Larish. Even without those players, Elbert, DeWitt & Orenduff are extremely solid players.

 

Royals:

Billy Butler (1)

Matt Campbell (1)

J.P. Howell (1S)

Billy Buckner (2)

Erik Cordier (2)

Josh Johnson (3)

 

Nice mix of players, with a talented, powerful prep bat in Butler, 2 polished college lefties in Campbell & Howell, a polished college righty in Buckner, a projectable prep righty in Cordier and a 5-tool SS in Johnson. They'll be pressed to sign all of these players, but even if they manage to sign 4 of them it's a job well done.

 

White Sox:

Josh Fields (1)

Tyler Lumsden (1S)

Gio Gonzalez (1S)

Wes Whisler (2)

Donny Lucy (2)

Ray Liotta (2)

Brandon Allen (5)

Tim Murphey (7)

 

The White Sox drafted 5 extremely talented LHPs in the top 7 rounds, thanks to extra picks. Fields could be their starter at 3B in a couple of years and Allen is a powerful corner OF prospect.

 

A's:

Landon Powell (1)

Richie Robnett (1)

Danny Putnam (1S)

Huston Street (1S)

Michael Rogers (2)

Kurt Suzuki (2)

Jason Windsor (3)

Ryan Webb (4)

 

When haven't the A's had a strong draft? And it's never about their top picks, but about all of their picks as a whole. They got 2 outstanding, well-rounder college catchers in Powell & Suzuki and 2 talented, multi-tooled college outfielders in Robnett & Putnam. RHP Huston Street could be the steal of the draft. Brewerfan.net poster 11 tabbed the A's to take UNC State's Michael Rogers back in March it seems, while Windsor pitched a masterful complete game shutout the other day in the CWS (despite throwing 140+ pitches). Ryan Webb is the odd man in this group as a projectable prep righty. If Beane spent a high pick on a guy like that you know he likes him.

 

Best drafts, no extra picks:

 

Indians:

Jeremy Sowers (1)

Justin Hoyman (2)

Scott Lewis (3)

Chuck Lofgren (4)

Mike Butia (5)

Mark Jecmen (7)

 

Of course I'm biased with Sowers, but the Indians got great value with all of the picks listed above. Scott Lewis could be a sleeper since he missed most of this year after having TJ surgery late last spring.

 

Tigers:

Justin Verlander (1)

Eric Beattie (2)

Jeff Frazier (3)

 

3 solid picks, all great value for where they were taken. Verlander is a power arm that the Tigers love, Beattie is a more polished sinker/slider type, while Frazier is a 5-tool college OF.

 

Rockies:

Chris Nelson (1)

Seth Smith (2)

Steven Register (3)

Chris Iannetta (4)

Matt Macri (5)

Joe Koshansky (6)

 

Nelson was an absolute steal with the 9th overall pick. Smith is another 5-tool college outfielder that could have been taken much higher with a better spring. While I'm not big on taking college closers early, Register is another steal in the 3rd round. Macri has big upside while Koshansky could be a Kieschnick clone. They also could have a couple of more potential steals if they're able to sign prep OF Dexter Fowler (14) or prep RHP/C Dominick Foster (17).

 

D-Backs:

Stephen Drew (1)

Jon Zeringue (2)

Garrett Mock (3)

Ross Ohlendorf (4)

Cesar Nicolas (5)

AJ Shappi (9)

Chris Carter (17)

 

Drew was a steal for where the D-Backs took him. Of course, he won't come cheap, but if he lives up to his potential...Jon Zeringue, Nicolas & Carter adds 3 powerful OF bat to the system, while Mock, Ohlendorf & Shappi adds 3 intriguing arms.

 

Reds:

Homer Bailey (1)

B.J. Szymanski (2)

 

Getting both of these players where they did are big-time steals for the Reds. Plus, they added one of my favorite players later in Paul Janish (5), who is already signed & has played well for the Billings Mustangs.

 

Worst drafts:

 

Astros:

Hunter Pence (2)

Troy Patton (9)

 

Pence is best known around here as a former Brewers draftee. A good hitter, he doesn't offer much more than his bat, and was a stretch as a 2nd round pick. The Astros have come up golden with later round picks over the past several years, so they'll likely make up for it with some player we've never heard of before in a year or two.

 

Braves:

Eric Campbell (2)

J.C. Holt (3)

 

Campbell was a reach in the 2nd round, while Holt has decent value in the 3rd. Not much else for the Braves, who may have taken a more budget-minded approach this year, something I'm not used to when following the Braves drafting efforts.

 

Marlins:

Taylor Tankersley (1)

Justin Vargas (2)

 

I like both Tankersley & Vargas, mostly because they're both lefties, but both probably profile as lefty-specialists down the road, something you don't go out of your way early to draft.

 

Risky draft:

 

Angels:

Jered Weaver (1)

Nick Adenhart (14)

Mark Trumbo (18)

 

The Angels broke the Weaver slide, and also picked up a couple of other talented RHPs later in the draft in Adenhart & Trumbo. They'll be hard-pressed to sign Adenhart & Trumbo away from UNC & USC respectively, while Weaver will likely take the entire summer, if not the fall & winter, to sign.

 

Draft note:

The Padres have already signed their top 12 picks, and 27 of their top 30 overall selections. While Matt Bush is really the only name that stands out, you have to tip your hat for getting so many players under contract so quickly, even if they did go the budget route (inking Bush to $3.1 million quickly as the #1 overall selection & not having a 2nd rounder).

[molitor fan]

Terriffic compilation Colby.....You give us draft laymen the Cliffs notes....I am suprised Macri slipped to the 5th based upon previous conversations....

[filthyfrog]

Colby, is it safe to assume you think the Brewers draft lies somewhere in the middle? Or do you see the Brewers being close to the top or close to the bottom?

 

Excellent analysis, as always.

[colbyjack]

I am suprised Macri slipped to the 5th based upon previous conversations.

 

I too like Macri, but there were/are some concerns about his swing being rather long. He's still has great value as a 5th rounder.

 

Colby, is it safe to assume you think the Brewers draft lies somewhere in the middle? Or do you see the Brewers being close to the top or close to the bottom?

 

Yeah, I would put them right in the middle. At this point in time, I don't think anyone really had a bad draft, other than the 3 teams I noted that I wasn't particularly fond of. I'm still a little concerned with the Brewers taking 2 prep arms with their top 2 picks, and there really isn't a legitimate positional prospect at this point in time, although Salome, Chapman & LeClercq show promise. I think they got good value with Wahpepah, Baker & Chapman, and I would rate their draft higher if I thought they could sign Bowman, Morgan or Pryor, and I personally don't think they will. Maybe Pryor, the other 2 are as good as gone IMO.

[Anders34]

Colby,

 

I was real disappointed to see Janish fall all the way to the 5th round and the Brewers didn't pick him up. I think he will be a heck of a player. Because he is already such a great fielder, he will be able to focus on offense and should improve significantly. He did that this year and improved his numbers greatly.

[colbyjack]

Yeah, I really liked Janish as well. Despite his big season at the plate this year I know scouts were still concerned about his bat. They just don't think it translates very well to wood, despite his improvements at the plate this year. Not the greatest bat speed from what I've heard & been told. I still stand by my comparison to Greg Gagne, and if Janish turns into that player, while not spectacular, he could enjoy a long & productive big league career.

[giezer007]

Wow the A's had another great draft (all college players of course) but there steal might be there third round Winsor, I watched him the other day he can throw.

[colbyjack]

Actually Ryan Webb, the A's 4th rounder, is a prep pitcher.

[Never Outhustled]

The A's did a terrific job drafting pitchers, as usual. However, they completely wasted a bunch of high draft picks on nothing position players, much like the moneyball draft.

[950opsLHcatcher]

I saw the game Windsor pitched and was pretty impressed, with three caveats. While he has good action on all his pitches, he was topping out in the mid 80's. I think the fastest I saw him throw was 87, and for a big guy like that, you'd think it would be more. The ump also had a huge zone (which I understand is the norm in college), and a lot of his pitches that were called strikes would have been called balls in pro baseball. Finally, he had a little bit of a hitch in his arm motion bringing the ball back towards home. He cocked his elbow a little, and then jerked his whole arm forward towards the plate. I've seen much cleaner deliveries, but I guess if he's gotten this far with it... I guess I see his value more as a reliever if he could add 4-5 MPH on his fastball by just going 20-30 pitches at a time. As it is, he looks like a middle-bottom of the rotation guy with an askew delivery.

[biedergb]

Quote:

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I think the fastest I saw him throw was 87... Finally, he had a little bit of a hitch in his arm motion bringing the ball back towards home. ... As it is, he looks like a middle-bottom of the rotation guy with an askew delivery.

---

 

So what you're saying, is he's the next Kyle Peterson?http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[11]

If the umps are giving an extra 6-8 inches off the outside corner, why not take advantage of that? He's smart enough to keep pounding that location as long as the ump continues to call those pitches strikes.

 

He was very effective the other night using the wider than usual K-zone. But as you say, at this time he lacks the power of a solid ML pitcher. Seems like a proto-type Oakland pick.

 

Like colbyjack, I too like what the Dodgers and A's did with the draft.

 

I would most definately label this year as the "Signability Draft" (see KC, SD as examples). It would appear by the picks already signed, that they are signing for slot or just less than slot as dictated by 'Commendant Selig'. To this point, no club has 'overpaid' the slot.

 

Many clubs struck pre-draft deals with their early round picks, thus taking the bonuses this year down under last year's 14% reduction from 2002. I'll make further comments on this year's draft in a few days from now.