2B/3B Options

[splitterpfj]

LeMahieu has played strictly second base the past four seasons. Signing him to anything beyond a one year deal with Hiura waiting in the wings wouldn’t make much sense as he would lose a significant amount of playing time. Having a guy receive limited at bats, but getting approximately $10 million isn’t the best use of finances.

 

Unless, of course, you then deal Hiura to fill another need.

[TooLiveBrew]

Or deal LeMahieu once Hiura is ready.

[SRB]

d.j had a couple stints on dl this past year otherwise had been rather healthy throughout his career.....he only batted 229 away from coors last year but the 3 yrs before that he batted 294...303 and 281 away from coors….and even with the sub par away from coors ba last year his last 3 yrs ave away from coors is 277.....

 

BA alone is a very dangerous way to evaluate a player.

 

Career home/away splits:

 

Home: .330/.387/.448 .835 OPS

Away: .264/.311/.362 .673 OPS

 

Away from Coors he's basically Hernan Perez with Gold-Glove defense (which obviously has value). But for a team looking for offense, especially with a major question mark in Arcia at short offensively, I'm not sure that's the BEST fit they can add. Would I take him at 2nd for the right price? You bet. But is another excellent defense/below average bat player what will address some of the offensive inconsistencies we saw last year? Probably not.

 

I think you're reading too much into those splits, which can often be random noise as much as park factor. Should we expect any player to hit worse outside Coors? Yes. But I'm not sure anyone could allege that the Coors park factor alone is responsible for a .150 point OPS differential. Maybe he just likes a home crowd.

[PeaveyFury]

I think you're reading too much into those splits, which can often be random noise as much as park factor. Should we expect any player to hit worse outside Coors? Yes. But I'm not sure anyone could allege that the Coors park factor alone is responsible for a .150 point OPS differential. Maybe he just likes a home crowd.

 

Over nearly 4,000 total ABs? Maybe we should be more concerned that the road crowds really get into his head!

 

That's why the OPS+ stat is relevant here, adjusting ALL of his ABs for park factor and placing him on a scale relative to the other 2B in the league. On that scale, he's been below average all but one year of his career. I don't think that's something that should be discarded, considering that offense is what the Brewers are looking to address if they spend money on 2B rather than SP.

[SRB]

I think you're reading too much into those splits, which can often be random noise as much as park factor. Should we expect any player to hit worse outside Coors? Yes. But I'm not sure anyone could allege that the Coors park factor alone is responsible for a .150 point OPS differential. Maybe he just likes a home crowd.

 

Over nearly 4,000 total ABs? Maybe we should be more concerned that the road crowds really get into his head!

 

That's why the OPS+ stat is relevant here, adjusting ALL of his ABs for park factor and placing him on a scale relative to the other 2B in the league. On that scale, he's been below average all but one year of his career. I don't think that's something that should be discarded, considering that offense is what the Brewers are looking to address if they spend money on 2B rather than SP.

 

OPS+ is not position specific, and anyways if you look back at the first post in this thread I fail to see any available 2B options who are better hitters factoring in age/decline, except for a possible Dozier rebound. And that's before taking into consideration LeMahieu being a great defender.

 

As I said, the problem with LeMahieu is that ideally you would platoon him against RHP, but he's passable against RHP and given that our infield is already going to have a guy with dramatic splits in the opposite direction it's a good fit.

[brewmann04]

You know DS will find a fill gap 2nd baseman

[reillymcshane]

Maybe we sign Jonathan Schoop for 1-year, $6M.

[PeaveyFury]

OPS+ is not position specific

 

No it's not, but it provides a standardized scale on which you can judge potential 2B candidates' offensive outputs vs. one another.

 

As I said previously, if the front office decides that he's the best guy for the 2B job, I'm fine with it at the right price. But if they do sign him, there's a real possibility that they'll be getting a fantastic defender who may hit for a low average, low OBP, and with some pop. If they're trying to improve the offense, they can likely do so at 2B and Catcher, and that's about it. I don't know if plugging in that type of hitter at 2nd achieves that objective. If signing DJ went along with a Realmuto trade, though, I'd be very optimistic about the lineup.

 

But, as you say, not sure who is a better fit. Dietrich is interesting because of his offense, but whether he'd be more productive depends entirely on how much the Brewers' shifting could improve/hide his defensive woes.

[SRB]

OPS+ is not position specific

 

No it's not, but it provides a standardized scale on which you can judge potential 2B candidates' offensive outputs vs. one another.

 

As I said previously, if the front office decides that he's the best guy for the 2B job, I'm fine with it at the right price. But if they do sign him, there's a real possibility that they'll be getting a fantastic defender who may hit for a low average, low OBP, and with some pop. If they're trying to improve the offense, they can likely do so at 2B and Catcher, and that's about it. I don't know if plugging in that type of hitter at 2nd achieves that objective. If signing DJ went along with a Realmuto trade, though, I'd be very optimistic about the lineup.

 

But, as you say, not sure who is a better fit. Dietrich is interesting because of his offense, but whether he'd be more productive depends entirely on how much the Brewers' shifting could improve/hide his defensive woes.

 

Fair enough. I'm not saying LeMahieu is Jose Altuve, but I'm just really skeptical of saying a guy who had a .416 OBP season within the last three years (even if that was his career year) would be a poor hitter outside Coors. I'm not convinced Derek Dietrich is a better hitter, for example, even before factoring in defense. Dietrich was pretty brutal down the stretch last year. (And of course more importantly he can barely play 2B)

[Mr Southpaw]

Maybe we sign Jonathan Schoop for 1-year, $6M.

 

Good idea!

[Oldcity]

Hiura might be up as early as a few weeks into the season. Perez/Saladino or even Dubon can hold down that spot just fine for that period of time.

 

The Brewers are pretty close to $100 mil in payroll. Not sure what the ceiling is, but we've never seen it significantly higher than that to start a season. They probably have limited room, so spending a big chunk of it on a second baseman with Hiura's arrival imminent doesn't make sense.

[tmwiese55]

Hiura might be up as early as a few weeks into the season. Perez/Saladino or even Dubon can hold down that spot just fine for that period of time.

 

The Brewers are pretty close to $100 mil in payroll. Not sure what the ceiling is, but we've never seen it significantly higher than that to start a season. They probably have limited room, so spending a big chunk of it on a second baseman with Hiura's arrival imminent doesn't make sense.

 

Fair, however you also have a clear platoon need with Shaw. And potentially some time at 1B for Shaw if Jesus is more like 2nd half than 1st half. Basically, look at how much PT Perez got last year in spite of having Shaw, Moose, Schoop all healthy. There should be a lot of ABs for a versatile IF who can play vs lefties and I'd prefer that person to be better than Perez. Ideally you could clear Thames money to cover the cost and give more roster flexibility. Any clear DH options in the AL that could make sense for Thames?

[long ball]

Hiura might be up as early as a few weeks into the season. Perez/Saladino or even Dubon can hold down that spot just fine for that period of time.

 

The Brewers are pretty close to $100 mil in payroll. Not sure what the ceiling is, but we've never seen it significantly higher than that to start a season. They probably have limited room, so spending a big chunk of it on a second baseman with Hiura's arrival imminent doesn't make sense.

 

Fair, however you also have a clear platoon need with Shaw. And potentially some time at 1B for Shaw if Jesus is more like 2nd half than 1st half. Basically, look at how much PT Perez got last year in spite of having Shaw, Moose, Schoop all healthy. There should be a lot of ABs for a versatile IF who can play vs lefties and I'd prefer that person to be better than Perez. Ideally you could clear Thames money to cover the cost and give more roster flexibility. Any clear DH options in the AL that could make sense for Thames?

 

I agree that Perez getting 350ish PAs in 2018 was still too many and there would still be plenty of PAs available for an infield bat even if Hiura is up in May. I would still like a guy like Lowrie or LeMahieu even on a multi year deal.

 

Thames would be a straight up salary dump so you'd have to find someone who likes Thames' bat better than the other guys in free agency who will get about $6m. Guys like Morrison (1/$6.5m in 2018), Duda (1/$3.5 in 2018), Matt Adams (1/$4m in 2018), Mark Reynolds (minor league deal in 2018), Justin Bour (non-tendered with projected arbi ~$5m), Wilmer Flores (non-tendered with projected arbi ~$5m), etc are all first base/DH types who are 1 year deal guys. Based on those contracts from 2018 and the guys who were non-tendered this year you might not actually find anyone to take on all of Thames' money.

[3and2Fastball]

Agree strongly that Shaw shouldn't face LHP... And I don't know if they have the best platoon partner for him internally. I think they might roll with Perez in that spot, but will hope they find someone who smashes LHP and let Perez remain in the super utility role.

[JohnBriggs12]

LeMahieu everyday at 2B, with Shaw at 3B and Perez getting lots of LHP starts at 3B would be fantastic.

 

Oh I disagree. We would have a very poor offense with this lineup, especially with Arcia at SS.

 

When Arcia's right as he was down the stretch and in the playoffs and the last 4 months of 2017, he's an offensive asset, not a liability. Hard to predict what your going to get but I'll take my chances with his talent that he's going to pick up where he left off.

[KeithStone53151]

LeMahieu everyday at 2B, with Shaw at 3B and Perez getting lots of LHP starts at 3B would be fantastic.

 

Oh I disagree. We would have a very poor offense with this lineup, especially with Arcia at SS.

 

When Arcia's right as he was down the stretch and in the playoffs and the last 4 months of 2017, he's an offensive asset, not a liability. Hard to predict what your going to get but I'll take my chances with his talent that he's going to pick up where he left off.

 

Agree with Briggs here. Arcia is still very young and made significant strides towards the end of the season. Here's hoping he picks up where he left off.

[pacopete4]

I’m as big of an Arcia supporter around here but if you’re going into the season counting on his bat, it might be a long year. He might be better, I mean how could he not be, but a huge jump is probably a bit much to ask for.

[KeithStone53151]

I’m as big of an Arcia supporter around here but if you’re going into the season counting on his bat, it might be a long year. He might be better, I mean how could he not be, but a huge jump is probably a bit much to ask for.

 

I suspect whoever opens the season at 2b will also be capable of playing SS. Also factor in Dubon and Perez as options. We aren't in an Arcia or bust situation no matter what we do with 2b.

[Jaylyn]

If 2B is not handed to Perez with Saladino taking his part of utility. Then I would suspect a FA signing of a Neil Walker or Daniel Descalso type on a one year deal between 2 to 4 mil.

[JohnBriggs12]

Hiura might be up as early as a few weeks into the season. Perez/Saladino or even Dubon can hold down that spot just fine for that period of time.

 

The Brewers are pretty close to $100 mil in payroll. Not sure what the ceiling is, but we've never seen it significantly higher than that to start a season. They probably have limited room, so spending a big chunk of it on a second baseman with Hiura's arrival imminent doesn't make sense.

 

Comparing total payroll to seasons past, especially more than 5 years ago is apples to oranges. Revenues are up significantly since say 2012, the last time the Brewers were coming off a playoff appearance. Brewers should routinely be able to handle $100 million and be able to push that up to $130 million with the boost of ticket sales that should materialize in the wake of 2018. Add in the fact that their payroll was extremely low in 2016 and 2017 allowing them to bank some in reserve, and they should be able to be players within reason.

[brewmann04]

I have to think the Brewers can see 3 Million this season and in the past Mark has not been scared to push the Budget up.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think ownership and the front office knows this team has a window of opportunity that is probably 3 years, and they also realize this team is a legit World Series contender right now, and that a big piece or two may very well push them over the top. They obviously aren't going to throw caution to the wind and sign guys like Harper or Machado, but I really believe that we are going to see a couple of acquisitions that can be qualified as "big" names, which means that the payroll and any perceived cap likely isn't the concern it's being made out as by a few posters here. They aren't going to sign anyone to a $30 million/year deal, but the money isn't a problem if they feel the upgrade is worth it. I think the opportunity is there for a big upgrade at catcher, 2B (or 3B if the plan is to play Shaw at 2B), perhaps RF, and undoubtedly at the top of the rotation. A high-end reliever isn't out of the realm of possibility either. Now they likely aren't going address all these areas this offseason, but I have a strong feeling that 2-3 of them will be addressed in a significant way.

[brewmann04]

I agree with this and think we be staring at the winter meeting either Via trades or FA or some combo. .

[HarveysWBs]

I have to think the Brewers can see 3 Million this season and in the past Mark has not been scared to push the Budget up.

 

That remains to be seen, I think. MLB Trade Rumors just ran an estimate last week of an opening day salary of over $95 million, even after cutting Schoop, Jennings, and Cedeño and making no additions, which would mark only the fourth time in 15 years we’ve opened over that spending level. The Brewers have never had an opening day salary reach $105 million or higher. While I’d love them to expand it and reach $120+, I just don’t know if that’s realistic, even with a boost in playoff revenue last year and doubtlessly increased attendance this year (barring a Brewers-esque collapse in the face of high expectstions, of course). To expect them to make any total signings or trades that would raise yearly salary outlays by more than $10 million is even a stretch. It just isn’t the orgs M.O.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

So, you need to account for inflation when comparing previous years opening day payroll.

 

Just using the CPI, having a $104M payroll in 2015 equates to $111M in 2019. Its not unreasonable to expect a $115-120M team payroll at the start of 2019 now that the brewers are back in contention. From 2017 to 2018 the opening day payroll was increased by $30M.