2B/3B Options

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Here is the three-year DRS for all of these guys:

 

[pre]RANKED BY DRS/Year BY POSITION w/INNINGS PLAYED

 

SECOND BASE

 

Player (Age) 3YR DRS/Year INNINGS PLAYED

----------------------- ------------ --------------

DJ LeMahieu (30) +29 3,660

Ian Kinsler (36) +27 3,528

Tyler Saladino (29) +26 562

Marwin Gonzalez^ (29) +22 399

Hernan Perez (27) +12 418

Jonathan Schoop (27) +4 3,755

Travis Shaw* (28) -4 268

Brian Dozier (31) -8 3,895

Jed Lowrie^ (34) -15 3,047

Neil Walker^ (33) -22 1,965

Asdrubal Cabrera^ (32) -51 1,069

Daniel Murphy* (33) -66 2,747

 

 

THIRD BASE

 

Player (Age) 3YR DRS/Year INNINGS PLAYED

----------------------- ------------ --------------

Adrian Beltre (39) +48 2,358

Manny Machado (26) +46 2,511

Travis Shaw* (28) +29 2,941

David Freese (35) +26 1,998

Josh Donaldson (32) +9 2,421

Marwin Gonzalez^ (29) +8 316

Neil Walker^ (33) +8 181

Hernan Perez (27) +3 711

Jung-ho Kang (31) -2 736

Mike Moustakas* (30) -2 2,410

Asdrubal Cabrera^ (32) -7 470

Tyler Saladino (29) -7 265

Jose Bautista (38) -8 177

Jed Lowrie^ (34) -19 128

Danny Valencia (34) -59 918[/pre]

 

Thanks for posting this. Very interesting list. Daniel Murphy is pretty universally recognized as a butcher at 2B at this point in his career. His bat would look great in the #2 hole in the Brewers' lineup, though. I just don't think poor defensive positioning alone could possibly lead to that drastic of a negative DRS number from Cabrera, and his bat just simply isn't good enough to make up for it, in my opinion.

 

If the Brewers see it differently, though, you can bet I'll be cheering him on at Miller Park next April.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Again, DRS is drastically affected by the team the player plays for. If your team is terrible at positioning, your DRS numbers will not be positive. The Brewers were ranked 2nd in MLB in DRS. Do people here think it's because their players turned into gold glovers overnight? Players on the Mets, Orioles, and Phillies are going to have bad DRS numbers no matter how good their gloves are because those teams are terrible at defensive positioning. The Brewers are one of the best. Repeat, the Orioles made Manny Machado a butcher defensively while the Dodgers made him a stud defensively. Put a Brewer on the Mets or Orioles and their DRS numbers will be terrible. Take a player from the Mets or Orioles and they'll suddenly look strong. Travis Shaw has next to no range but held up at 2B because he was positioned well. Put him on a team like the Mets and have him play 2B and it would be a circus.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

And That, you're just about the last person who I would expect to post DRS numbers and correlate it to the player being an individually bad glove. I'm literally shocked. How can their numbers be good, if they play for a team that has no clue how to line up their defenders?

 

It's like watching people be de-educated and then seeing some of them inevitably eat it right up.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

And That, you're just about the last person who I would expect to post DRS numbers and correlate it to the player being an individually bad glove. I'm literally shocked. How can their numbers be good, if they play for a team that has no clue how to line up their defenders?

 

It's like watching people be de-educated and then seeing some of them inevitably eat it right up.

 

Can I ask what metric you use to determine defensive value?

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I'll tell anyone right now, the Brewers could make even Daniel Murphy look decent statistically at 2B. It's exactly what they pulled off with Shaw.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

 

Can I ask what metric you use to determine defensive value?

 

There isn't a reliably accurate one yet. The most important factor in playing defense is positioning and that comes down to which teams have the best read on data combined with the way they pitch the batter. Some teams excel at one but not at both. And some teams excel at neither, cough Mets, Orioles, Phillies, cough. It's not as simple as looking at spray charts. Your pitchers have to locate their pitches as well. You can't have your whole defense shift for the batter to pull and then have the pitcher throwing his cutter tailing away. If I'm going to trust that I'll have my defenders in the best spot, then I'd probably start prioritizing the guys with the most accurate throwing arms.

[brewerfan82]

Sign me up for Marwin Gonzalez at this point. Between his flexibility and his Houston past, gotta believe he's a guy Stearns knows well and is looking very closely at. He provides a nice compliment to Shaw at 3rd vs lefties, is an improvement over Schoop at 2nd against righties, and can fill in all over the place to give guys rest or cover for injuries. He's also the youngest available guy not named Machado on the list. We could sign him for a few years and his flexibility would give the team a ton of options moving forward as Hiura is called up and other guys move on. He's not the most exciting player to get, but if you add him first, your options for improving the roster stay wide open.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Sign me up for Marwin Gonzalez at this point. Between his flexibility and his Houston past, gotta believe he's a guy Stearns knows well and is looking very closely at. He provides a nice compliment to Shaw at 3rd vs lefties, is an improvement over Schoop at 2nd against righties, and can fill in all over the place to give guys rest or cover for injuries. He's also the youngest available guy not named Machado on the list. We could sign him for a few years and his flexibility would give the team a ton of options moving forward as Hiura is called up and other guys move on. He's not the most exciting player to get, but if you add him first, your options for improving the roster stay wide open.

 

I'd be happy with Gonzalez as well, just don't think he's as obtainable as Cabrera. Both are good fits. Gonzalez imo, is less likely to depart his 2018 team, will be in higher demand, and will cost more.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Can I ask what metric you use to determine defensive value?

 

There isn't a reliably accurate one yet. The most important factor in playing defense is positioning and that comes down to which teams have the best read on data combined with the way they pitch the batter. Some teams excel at one but not at both. And some teams excel at neither, cough Mets, Orioles, Phillies, cough. It's not as simple as looking at spray charts. Your pitchers have to locate their pitches as well. You can't have your whole defense shift for the batter to pull and then have the pitcher throwing his cutter tailing away. If I'm going to trust that I'll have my defenders in the best spot, then I'd probably start prioritizing the guys with the most accurate throwing arms.

 

If that's the case, wouldn't it make more sense to use the money that you are going to spend on Cabrera on pitching, and hope that Perez and/or Dubon can hold down 2B until Hiura arrives? Or even sign a 3B like Donaldson with the hope that Shaw can hold down 2B. I mean I don't know what a player like Cabrera is going to command in this market, but that would be a pretty expensive utility infielder theoretically. You are right that the numebr of players out there available who offer the positional versatility the Brewers like is pretty limited. I did read something yesterday saying that there's a chance the Mets may not tender Wilmer Flores a contract. I wonder if he would be of interest?

[KeithStone53151]

Sign me up for Marwin Gonzalez at this point. Between his flexibility and his Houston past, gotta believe he's a guy Stearns knows well and is looking very closely at. He provides a nice compliment to Shaw at 3rd vs lefties, is an improvement over Schoop at 2nd against righties, and can fill in all over the place to give guys rest or cover for injuries. He's also the youngest available guy not named Machado on the list. We could sign him for a few years and his flexibility would give the team a ton of options moving forward as Hiura is called up and other guys move on. He's not the most exciting player to get, but if you add him first, your options for improving the roster stay wide open.

 

I'd be happy with Gonzalez as well, just don't think he's as obtainable as Cabrera. Both are good fits. Gonzalez imo, is less likely to depart his 2018 team, will be in higher demand, and will cost more.

 

I actually don't think Gonzalez stays in Houston, but as noted I think the demand will be high. Just about every team can use a guy like him. I'm not sure he'll quite get Zobrist money, but much closer to that than 2/18.

[KeithStone53151]

 

Can I ask what metric you use to determine defensive value?

 

There isn't a reliably accurate one yet. The most important factor in playing defense is positioning and that comes down to which teams have the best read on data combined with the way they pitch the batter. Some teams excel at one but not at both. And some teams excel at neither, cough Mets, Orioles, Phillies, cough. It's not as simple as looking at spray charts. Your pitchers have to locate their pitches as well. You can't have your whole defense shift for the batter to pull and then have the pitcher throwing his cutter tailing away. If I'm going to trust that I'll have my defenders in the best spot, then I'd probably start prioritizing the guys with the most accurate throwing arms.

 

If that's the case, wouldn't it make more sense to use the money that you are going to spend on Cabrera on pitching, and hope that Perez and/or Dubon can hold down 2B until Hiura arrives? Or even sign a 3B like Donaldson with the hope that Shaw can hold down 2B. I mean I don't know what a player like Cabrera is going to command in this market, but that would be a pretty expensive utility infielder theoretically. You are right that the numebr of players out there available who offer the positional versatility the Brewers like is pretty limited. I did read something yesterday saying that there's a chance the Mets may not tender Wilmer Flores a contract. I wonder if he would be of interest?

 

We definitely could go the 3b route, but the key again is flexibility. When Hiura comes up, it's hard to say whether this new person will be utilized more at 2b, 3b, 1b, ss, OF, etc. I'm not sure we find someone good that can play all those spots, but the more positions this person can play well...the better.

[And That]

And That, you're just about the last person who I would expect to post DRS numbers and correlate it to the player being an individually bad glove. I'm literally shocked. How can their numbers be good, if they play for a team that has no clue how to line up their defenders?

There's a lot of noise at the team level for DRS, so it's not accurate to say, "x player plays on crappy defensive team y, therefore he might be good on good defensive team z." Looking at Daniel Murphy, for example, the Cubs had the 6th best team DRS in 2018, yet he was terrible for them. They were a better team by DRS than the Dodgers, who "fixed" Machado.

 

DRS doesn't have a ton of correlation year to year either, for whatever reason. Arizona was +118 this year, +13 last year. Milwaukee was +91 this year, +23 last year. Boston was -44 this year, +71 last year. So if players tend to be crappy over time, which is why I used 3-year data, that tells me that lo, they may be crappy regardless of what team they're playing on. As always, when painting with broad strokes it's important to look at finer detail (Machado did get better and the Mets have been poorly rated by DRS in '17/18), but dismissing its usefulness for individual players due to current year data is not wise, IMO.

 

I do find DRS to be the most thoughtful indicator of defense publically available, followed by FRAA and then UZR as a distant third. I'm looking forward to MLB providing more Statcast data with regard to defense as they've provided peaks into some really exciting defensive tools.

 

As for Cabrera specifically, he has a negative value for his career defensively via Fangraphs. As shown, DRS has him as a bad defender and FRAA backs that up. And from what limited amount I've seen of his play, specifically at shortstop, I'd tend to think his lack of mobility and declining arm strength would be hinderances regardless of what team he plays on.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Cabrera isn't a match because of his amazing defense, the Brewers would make him a serviceable defender. It's positional flexibility and because his bat matches the needs to combat their current IF bat deficiencies. He's a switch-hitter without dramatic splits. They definitely can use him to spell Shaw vs tough LHPs and he can still hold up against RHP when Hiura and Arcia need a day off. How any potential free agent potentially covers for the current IF's bad splits is a huge factor in who to target.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

There's a lot of noise at the team level for DRS, so it's not accurate to say, "x player plays on crappy defensive team y, therefore he might be good on good defensive team z." Looking at Daniel Murphy, for example, the Cubs had the 6th best team DRS in 2018, yet he was terrible for them. They were a better team by DRS than the Dodgers, who "fixed" Machado.

 

DRS doesn't have a ton of correlation year to year either, for whatever reason. Arizona was +118 this year, +13 last year. Milwaukee was +91 this year, +23 last year. Boston was -44 this year, +71 last year. So if players tend to be crappy over time, which is why I used 3-year data, that tells me that lo, they may be crappy regardless of what team they're playing on. As always, when painting with broad strokes it's important to look at finer detail (Machado did get better and the Mets have been poorly rated by DRS in '17/18), but dismissing its usefulness for individual players due to current year data is not wise, IMO.

 

I do find DRS to be the most thoughtful indicator of defense publically available, followed by FRAA and then UZR as a distant third. I'm looking forward to MLB providing more Statcast data with regard to defense as they've provided peaks into some really exciting defensive tools.

 

As for Cabrera specifically, he has a negative value for his career defensively via Fangraphs. As shown, DRS has him as a bad defender and FRAA backs that up. And from what limited amount I've seen of his play, specifically at shortstop, I'd tend to think his lack of mobility and declining arm strength would be hinderances regardless of what team he plays on.

 

I would cringe at having to use Cabrera for long stretches at SS yet teams have played him there for 73% of his career. At 2b away from NYM and PHI he's been a plus defender.

 

The bottom line is these defensive numbers are skewed so heavily by players being misaligned and misused by the teams they get stuck playing with. A player who can hold up at multiple positions and give you the reverse splits opposite your other bats is very valuable. It saves you a roster spot if you're a matchup team. And the Brewers are about as much of a matchup team as it gets. Cabrera will give a good bat and surprise people defensively if he becomes a Brewer. I'd love to see his defensive metrics at the end of 2019 if he does.

[Humans Need Water]

The Brewers proved with Shaw how the most important factor in defensive performance is positioning. Our fanbase was first-hand witness yet it still seems lost on many.

 

"Positioning" is a very broad term whereas shifting is more focused. Shaw is between a good and great 3b. He has instincts, covers ground, can pick a bunt, is accurate with his throws and has a solid arm - *all* of this, combined with how they *shift* at 2b, is why he was able to function as a 2b. Saying Shaw was *solely* able to function due to positioning is not only false but a slap in the face to his abilities as a fielder/thrower.

 

You mentioned Machado earlier. I have no idea why DRS rated him so poorly with the Os in the first half but he was 3 last year in what amounts to 42 full games and was positive in LA as well. Maybe it's because he was dogging it knowing his team sucks and he'll be traded anyway so didn't get to balls he should otherwise have? Fits his personality...

 

Positioning and shifting is *not* the most important factor in defensive performance. If it is then you're literally saying that *anybody* can be a successful defender as long as the coaching staff positions them correctly. That their skill set is irrelevant. False. Positioning and shifting is applied to increase your chances of getting a batter out, which has nothing to do with defensive performance itself. Defensive performance itself is the product of having the opportunity to make a play followed by actually making that play, regardless of where one is positioned. There's *zero* evidence to back up your *belief* that DRS is heavily skewed to favor a player whose team positions them correctly.

 

Also, how exactly is an individual's DRS *more* team measured than individual? DRS, while flawed, as they all are, is the best defensive metric there is but Statcast will soon enough be the best.

 

Finally, what are you talking about when it comes to Asdrubal Cabrera? Starting in 2009, and every year since, he's been a negative DRS at both 2b and SS. He hasn't been a plus defender since 2007/2008...anywhere. He's a good bat up the middle but isn't good in the field.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

"Positioning" is a very broad term whereas shifting is more focused. Shaw is between a good and great 3b. He has instincts, covers ground, can pick a bunt, is accurate with his throws and has a solid arm - *all* of this, combined with how they *shift* at 2b, is why he was able to function as a 2b. Saying Shaw was *solely* able to function due to positioning is not only false but a slap in the face to his abilities as a fielder/thrower.

 

Shaw was not called on to have any level of range whatsoever. He held up fairly decently because they had him positioned so well and converted outs into outs. He wasn't taking hits away from anyone. Other than of course when they had him lined up in a spot that other teams would have had no one.

 

You mentioned Machado earlier. I have no idea why DRS rated him so poorly with the Os in the first half but he was 3 last year in what amounts to 42 full games and was positive in LA as well. Maybe it's because he was dogging it knowing his team sucks and he'll be traded anyway so didn't get to balls he should otherwise have? Fits his personality...

 

Baltimore is one of the worst teams in baseball at advance scouting and utilizing positioning and shifts. It's one of the reasons Stearns was so hot after so many of their pitchers. Take any Orioles pitcher and have them pitch in front of the Brewers positioned defense and it shaves about a run and a half off their ERA. It's that dramatic.

 

Positioning and shifting is *not* the most important factor in defensive performance. If it is then you're literally saying that *anybody* can be a successful defender as long as the coaching staff positions them correctly.

 

It's 100% the most important factor in team defense. You could have a team full of poorly positioned gold glovers save fewer defensive runs than a team with mere average and above average glovers who are positioned correctly. You can't field what you're not in position to glove.

 

That their skill set is irrelevant. False. Positioning and shifting is applied to increase your chances of getting a batter out, which has nothing to do with defensive performance itself. Defensive performance itself is the product of having the opportunity to make a play followed by actually making that play, regardless of where one is positioned. There's *zero* evidence to back up your *belief* that DRS is heavily skewed to favor a player whose team positions them correctly.

 

Skill-set is not entirely irrelevant. Travis Shaw is a great example. He's sound enough capturing ball into glove and throwing said ball accurately to the right base. That's not asking him to have amazing range, quick hands, or a canon for an arm. But you can have a defense that saves run with a Shaw put in the right spots.

 

Also, how exactly is an individual's DRS *more* team measured than individual? DRS, while flawed, as they all are, is the best defensive metric there is but Statcast will soon enough be the best.

 

Defensive runs saved is absolutely a team stat. If your organization correctly scouts, positions, and pitches to initiate contact to where you have your 9 defenders positioned it will save runs. And your individual defenders don't have to be elite to be a leader in DRS. The Brewers have 2 elite defenders and a bunch of average ones. Yet placement combined with pitch selection allowed the team to finish 2nd in DRS. Without the organization's heavy emphasis on shifts, placement, and it's marriage with pitch strategy, this team's defensive effectiveness would be middle of the pack at best with these position players.

 

Finally, what are you talking about when it comes to Asdrubal Cabrera? Starting in 2009, and every year since, he's been a negative DRS at both 2b and SS. He hasn't been a plus defender since 2007/2008...anywhere. He's a good bat up the middle but isn't good in the field.

 

What I've said multiple times is that he's been adequate at 2B outside of NYM and PHI which are two very poor teams at positioning. He amassed -31 DRS at 2B in the past 2 years with the Mets and Phillies. His 6 year total at 2B is -21 meaning he saved 10 runs at 2B the four years prior. All I've ever said is he'd look a lot better playing 2B for the Brewers and to me that is obvious. People are writing him off as a butcher when if positioned correctly he'd be fine and his bat would be a big plus up the middle.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

At least when they sign Cabrera, everyone will be well versed as to why.

 

And that's not a guarantee, but given that the best fit already signed (Eduardo Escobar), I think Stearns will be a little more aggressive getting Cabrera. Btw, the one team that ranked higher in DRS than the Brewers were the Dbacks, who were quick to lock up Escobar before free agency. I think Stearns would've been all over Escobar.

[recte44]

Yuni is still active in the Mexican League!

[sveumrules]

Some MLBTR predictions for 2B/3B options...

 

Manny Machado, 13/390

Josh Donaldson, 1/20

Marwin Gonzalez, 4/36

Jed Lowrie, 3/30

Daniel Murphy, 2/20

Brian Dozier, 1/10

DJ LeMahieu, 2/18

Mike Moustakas, 2/16

[long ball]

After thinking about what the Brewers Rotation "could" look like next season it might be more important to field a stronger infield defense than they did in 2018.

 

Ground ball rates:

Woodruff- 50% ML career, similar in the minors

Chacin- 42.2% 2018, but 47.4% career

Davies- 48.7% career

Burnes- 45.9% was the lowest rate in the minors.

Nelson- 49.7% career

Miley- 49% career (if retained)

 

 

We know Suter and his FB tendancy won't be in the rotation in 2019. Anderson very much seems in question. Peralta appears to be more FB:GB neutral.

 

Point being is they may be less willing to play Shaw primarily at 2b compared to what I initially thought. So that might diminish the appeal of Donaldson and Moustakas. It might increase the interest in LeMahieu given his strong defense (and that contract prediction from MLBTR is pretty palatable).

[clancyphile]

The Moustakas deal seems to be a good one for the Crew. Two years, time enough for Erceg to get ready for the majors. Plus, if Hiura forces his way up, the Crew can move Shaw to first.

[adambr2]

Some MLBTR predictions for 2B/3B options...

 

Manny Machado, 13/390

Josh Donaldson, 1/20

Marwin Gonzalez, 4/36

Jed Lowrie, 3/30

Daniel Murphy, 2/20

Brian Dozier, 1/10

DJ LeMahieu, 2/18

Mike Moustakas, 2/16

 

Really kind of odd that Moose would turn down a 1/15 option from us if his market really is 2/16. Unless he just already knew we weren't going to exercise 1/15 from our end either.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Some MLBTR predictions for 2B/3B options...

 

Manny Machado, 13/390

Josh Donaldson, 1/20

Marwin Gonzalez, 4/36

Jed Lowrie, 3/30

Daniel Murphy, 2/20

Brian Dozier, 1/10

DJ LeMahieu, 2/18

Mike Moustakas, 2/16

 

 

I have a hard time believing any team is gonna come close to $400 mil for Machado. Just don’t see it. Granted it’s over 13 years....just seems like too much for a low character individual.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Would love to get Donaldson.

[reillymcshane]

Yuni is still active in the Mexican League!

Damn straight. I hit .406 this year. Almost won the battling title.

 

I've still got it, my friends. Show me some love.

 

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