2B/3B Options

[brewerfan82]

There's been some chatter along this front in a couple other threads, but I thought a consolidated thread might be nice. In theory, this discussion is really about the question mark at 2B right now, but with Shaw's ability to move to 2B if we find a 3B, I decided to group them together.

 

With that said, I put together a list comparing in house options with 2B and 3B free agent options on the market using 3 year splits as a starting point. NOTE: Players are ranked based on their 3 year wRC+. Also I threw FanGraph's Def stat on there not really knowing how it's calculated or how well it actually depicts a player's defensive ability, but thought it was probably better than not considering defense at all.

 

[pre]IN HOUSE

3YR OPS 3YR wRC+

Rnk Player (Age, Positions) vsRHP vsLHP Total vsRHP vsLHP Total 3YR Def

--------------------------- ----------------- ----------------- -------

11. Travis Shaw* (28, 3B/1B/2B) .850 / .668 / .807 120 / 74 / 110 7.5

17. Jonathan Schoop (27, 2B/SS) .766 / .765 / .765 102 / 102 / 102 4.1

28. Hernan Perez (27, 3B/OF/2B/SS) .666 / .786 / .706 73 / 103 / 83 1.1

31. Orlando Arcia (24, SS) .662 / .658 / .661 70 / 75 / 72 7.9

32. Tyler Saladino (29, 3B/SS/2B) .623 / .641 / .629 67 / 77 / 70 5.8

 

 

2B FREE AGENTS

3YR OPS 3YR wRC+

Rnk Player (Age, Positions) vsRHP vsLHP Total vsRHP vsLHP Total 3YR Def

--------------------------- ----------------- ----------------- -------

2. Daniel Murphy* (33, 1B/2B) .955 / .809 / .917 146 / 110 / 137 -11.4

6. Brian Dozier (31, 2B) .796 / .878 / .817 110 / 133 / 116 2.6

7. Asdrubal Cabrera^ (32, 2B/SS/3B) .788 / .796 / .790 113 / 117 / 114 2.6

8. Marwin Gonzalez^ (29, 1B/LF/2B/SS/3B) .786 / .753 / .776 115 / 106 / 112 -13.5

9. Jed Lowrie^ (34, 2B/3B) .786 / .716 / .767 116 / 98 / 111 3.9

13. Neil Walker^ (33, 1B/RF/2B/3B) .780 / .724 / .767 111 / 98 / 107 4.8

15. DJ LeMahieu (30, 2B) .769 / .930 / .815 93 / 131 / 103 19.3

16. Ian Kinsler (36, 2B) .749 / .761 / .752 102 / 104 / 103 26.9

 

 

3B FREE AGENTS

3YR OPS 3YR wRC+

Rnk Player (Age, Positions) vsRHP vsLHP Total vsRHP vsLHP Total 3YR Def

--------------------------- ----------------- ----------------- -------

1. Josh Donaldson (32, 3B) .915 / .963 / .926 146 / 157 / 148 4.3

3. Jung-ho Kang (31, 3B) .891 / .757 / .863 137 / 110 / 131 -2.7

4. Manny Machado (26, SS/3B) .841 / .891 / .855 121 / 136 / 125 19.0

5. Adrian Beltre (39, 3B) .832 / .910 / .851 115 / 136 / 120 13.3

7. Asdrubal Cabrera^ (32, 2B/SS/3B) .788 / .796 / .790 113 / 117 / 114 2.6

8. Marwin Gonzalez^ (29, 1B/LF/2B/SS/3B) .786 / .753 / .776 115 / 106 / 112 -13.5

9. Jed Lowrie^ (34, 2B/3B) .786 / .716 / .767 116 / 98 / 111 3.9

10. David Freese (35, 1B/3B) .722 / .888 / .771 97 / 140 / 110 6.3

12. Mike Moustakas* (30, 3B) .827 / .746 / .804 115 / 96 / 109 -0.4

13. Neil Walker^ (33, 1B/RF/2B/3B) .780 / .724 / .767 111 / 98 / 107 4.8

14. Danny Valencia (34, 1B/RF/3B) .699 / .867 / .751 90 / 135 / 104 -32.1

18. Jose Bautista (38, LF/RF/3B) .748 / .686 / .733 105 / 89 / 101 -25.6

 

Players under 100 wRC+: Brad Miller (99), Daniel Descalso (97), Sean Rodriguez (95), Luis Valbuena (94),

Chase Headley (93), Logan Forsythe (93), Jose Reyes (91), Josh Harrison (91), Brandon Phillips (90),

Eric Sogard (83), Gregorio Petit (74), Andrew Romine (63), Gordon Beckham (63), Ryan Flaherty (59),

Ryan Goins (59), Dixon Machado (56)[/pre]

[KeithStone53151]

Nice work on this, very helpful. I think anyone we get for 2b needs to be a multi-position guy. We carry 13 pitchers and 2 1b only types. Along with a catcher, whoever pairs with Perez needs to be able to play multiple positions and ideally SS. We'll have to weigh keeping Schoop against the cost of Gonzalez and Cabrera if they maintain similar roster construction. They could of course opt to dump one of our 1b which would reduce the need for flexibility a bit. I still think we'd want a multi-position guy...someone that can get out of Hiura's way in May/June and still be helpful.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

The most logical fit on that list continues to be Asdrubal Cabrera. There's even a thread started on him somewhere.

[And That]

Well done - kudos on using 3-year data, which is absolutely preferable to "OMG last year" in many cases. E.g., Wade Miley.

 

LeMahieu is interesting in that he seemed to be unlucky to some degree in 2018 with a BABIP drop juxtaposed against his barrel % and hard hit% going up from 2017. Then again, his xwOBA has usually tracked well with his wOBA, so maybe it's a true skill decline showing. And while he's really good defending at second base, he's only a second baseman (probably), which doesn't lend itself to the Brewers' defensive versatility credo.

 

I'd still prefer Marwin Gonzalez over LeMahieu, but if DJ is a lot cheaper, which may well be, maybe the better value is to get the guy who can only play the one position.

[KeithStone53151]

The most logical fit on that list continues to be Asdrubal Cabrera. There's even a thread started on him somewhere.

 

What do we think Cabrera is looking at? He got 2/18.5 in 2015-16 offseason. Since then, he's been better with the bat but a bit worse defensively. Sean Rodriguez got 2/11.5 after a bit year after the 2016 season. Does somewhere between those numbers make sense for the soon to be 33 year old? Or do we prefer a 1 year deal?

[KeithStone53151]

Murphy would fit pretty well in place of Thames on the roster. Would likely allow us to carry a true 4th OF. Bench of Schoop, Perez, 4th OF, C...with Shaw or Murphy filling in at 1b sometimes against RHB. You could go with someone besides Schoop, mentioned him for simplicity sake.

[And That]

Based on what I saw out of him in Chicago, Murphy is bad defensively at second. Looking at his defensive stats, I'm honestly a little shocked they aren't much worse than they are. Assuming he won't get any better there as he gets older, he's pretty much a first baseman in my book at this point.

 

Edit: Well, DRS does agree with me after all. It has him as a -18 defender at second base this year in just 535 innings in the field. Over a full year, that's -40 (!). And actually, -18 managed to be the worst in baseball despite Murphy's lack of playing time. That's astoundingly bad defense.

 

Second-worst was Asdrubal Cabrera, who clocked in at -17.

 

LeMahieu, incidentally, was +18. Nearly 4 full wins better on defense than Murphy. Second-best in baseball behind Kolten Wong.

 

Marwin Gonzalez was +1.

 

Travis Shaw was -1. So while he wasn't great at second, the posters on here who have said Shaw has no business playing there and that the Brewers were stupid for playing him there... sorry, you're wrong. The Brewers actually might have a handle on the whole defensive self-scouting thing.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Adrubal Cabrera is a horrid defender. I personally want no part of that.

[TURBO]

I'm quite sure we will not be on the hunt for a 3B this off season.

 

Maybe a guy who can play 2B/3B, but not a straight up 3B.

[KeithStone53151]

Travis Shaw was -1. So while he wasn't great at second, the posters on here who have said Shaw has no business playing there and that the Brewers were stupid for playing him there... sorry, you're wrong. The Brewers actually might have a handle on the whole defensive self-scouting thing.

 

I think the Brewers know exactly what they are doing from a defensive scouting/shifting/etc standpoint. I think the Brewers are way ahead of most teams on that.

 

It does depend how much you want to factor in defense. There's certainly an argument to be made to have Shaw play some 2b and some 3b this year. I do like Lemahieu alot, he's a very good player obviously...he just completely blocks Hiura and that signing only makes sense if we trade Hiura or it's a 1 year deal(unlikely). Plus, the whole Coors thing.

[3and2Fastball]

Thanks for the post. Great to see

 

Travis Shaw should never face a LHP. Hernan is OK as a platoon vs LHP, but it'd be nice to increase production there. Looking at this makes it make more sense to keep Schoop, maybe see if Hiura is ready mid season and trade Schoop at the deadline.

[RollieTime]

Marwin Gonzalez and Josh Donaldson are the only two on the lists that I would be interested in signing. The others are either poor defensively or not much of upgrades over what we already have.

[nate82]

Jung-Ho Kang is an interesting option at 3B. I wonder if he could play 2B he has played some SS.

 

Wouldn't do more than 2-years

 

I would prefer Marwin and I am leery on DJ.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Adrubal Cabrera is a horrid defender. I personally want no part of that.

 

Lol, so wrong.

 

DRS has more to do with the team than an individual defender. If Cabrera plays for the Brewers next year, he will have a "+" DRS next year 100%, zero doubt, guaranteed. The Mets were one of the worst teams in baseball at aligning their defenders. Another awful team, the Orioles, made Manny Machado into some sort of butcher defensively. Until he went to a team that knows how to position players and suddenly Machado was magically a great SS again. One of the greatest deficiencies Stearns makes use of is "rescuing" pitchers and position players from teams who don't know how to correctly position their players.

 

Still smh at "horrid defender".

[True Blue Brew Crew]

 

Marwin Gonzalez was +1.

 

 

Mediocre on a team that knows how to use data. Put Asdrubal Cabrera on the Astros and make Marwin Gonzalez a Met and their DRS will be a lopsided flip in Cabrera's favor. This stuff is going to fool people for quite a few more years. Works in the Brewers favor at least.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

The most logical fit on that list continues to be Asdrubal Cabrera. There's even a thread started on him somewhere.

 

What do we think Cabrera is looking at? He got 2/18.5 in 2015-16 offseason. Since then, he's been better with the bat but a bit worse defensively. Sean Rodriguez got 2/11.5 after a bit year after the 2016 season. Does somewhere between those numbers make sense for the soon to be 33 year old? Or do we prefer a 1 year deal?

 

There's no reason to shy away from a 2-year deal. He's a big upgrade from Perez and fills that role once Hiura is up for good come June. 2/15 for Cabrera is a much better route than Schoop at 1/10.

 

I saw someone say Schoop's return is dependent most upon if Mark A. signs off on stretching the budget from 110 to 120. WHAT??? So Mark A. gives you the green light to stretch an extra 10 million and you use it all up on Schoop? I'd rather use that extra money on a better player and still have money left over to spend elsewhere. Be it now or even midseason.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Adrubal Cabrera is a horrid defender. I personally want no part of that.

 

Lol, so wrong.

 

DRS has more to do with the team than an individual defender. If Cabrera plays for the Brewers next year, he will have a "+" DRS next year 100%, zero doubt, guaranteed. The Mets were one of the worst teams in baseball at aligning their defenders. Another awful team, the Orioles, made Manny Machado into some sort of butcher defensively. Until he went to a team that knows how to position players and suddenly Machado was magically a great SS again. One of the greatest deficiencies Stearns makes use of is "rescuing" pitchers and position players from teams who don't know how to correctly position their players.

 

Still smh at "horrid defender".

 

No fielding metric rates him well. But keep up the condescension. It definitely helps your argument.

[long ball]

Personally, I would move on from Schoop unless they're able to negotiate a lower salary. I think they can do better than Schoop on a 1/10 type deal.

 

Jed Lowrie would be my number one target. Has some positional flexibility if/when Hiura comes up in 2019 and beyond. Switch hitter. Played in a ton of games the last couple seasons. Good BB% and K%. Solid defense. He's on the older side so a deal longer than 2 years seems unlikely.

 

Josh Donaldson is also interesting to me. Travis Shaw looked fine at second base in limited action there. I do think if they go with an everyday guy at third base other than Shaw they'll need to find Shaw some PAs at first base which would mean finding a taker for Thames even if it's just to shed salary. Donaldson's calf does make me nervous. If he could be had on a 1/$15 type deal I'd be interested. The Blue Jays traded him in lieu of extending a QO, so I think that offers a little insight to what his perceived cost will be from inside the industry. He's probably their best chance at finding a legit middle of the order impact bat, but definitely comes with the injury risk.

 

Gonzalez would be awesome if they think Hiura will be their everyday second baseman at some point in early 2019. If they're in on Gonzalez they can probably non-tender Perez and go with Saladino or Dubon as the other back up infielder to start the year. Then once Hiura is up Gonzalez is your super sub all over the diamond and gets 500+ PAs.

 

Murphy would be a passable option if they think Hiura is going to be their guy from May on. Start him every day at second base until Hiura is called up and then get him a bunch of PAs at first base. No question he can hit, but he can't run the bases and can't field.

 

Moustakas would be ok because of familiarity.

 

Machado is never going to happen. Kang doesn't even have a work visa approved because of the DUIs in South Korea. The other guys I'm not all that interested in for varying reasons.

[RollieTime]

Jung-Ho Kang is an interesting option at 3B. I wonder if he could play 2B he has played some SS.

 

Wouldn't do more than 2-years

 

I would prefer Marwin and I am leery on DJ.

 

Kang would be a good addition to this team on the field, but his off the field issues is concerning to me. He has been arrested multiple times for DUI and also has a sexual assault allegation lingering over his head. If he had no prior issues, he would definitely be a target, but I don’t think the Brewers want to add somebody like that to represent the organization.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Adrubal Cabrera is a horrid defender. I personally want no part of that.

 

Lol, so wrong.

 

DRS has more to do with the team than an individual defender. If Cabrera plays for the Brewers next year, he will have a "+" DRS next year 100%, zero doubt, guaranteed. The Mets were one of the worst teams in baseball at aligning their defenders. Another awful team, the Orioles, made Manny Machado into some sort of butcher defensively. Until he went to a team that knows how to position players and suddenly Machado was magically a great SS again. One of the greatest deficiencies Stearns makes use of is "rescuing" pitchers and position players from teams who don't know how to correctly position their players.

 

Still smh at "horrid defender".

 

No fielding metric rates him well. But keep up the condescension. It definitely helps your argument.

 

And you should keep on making blanket statements with nothing to back them up. That definitely helps your argument. As for metric rating systems, and none supposedly rating him well, there's one in the very first post of this thread that has him as a positive defender over the last 3 years.

 

Another aspect being completely overlooked here is how the versatile all over the field guys are docked by these measurements. Stick Cabrera strictly at 2B like a LeMahieu or Kinsler and take a guess at what his DRS numbers would look like.

 

The Brewers proved with Shaw how the most important factor in defensive performance is positioning. Our fanbase was first-hand witness yet it still seems lost on many.

[long ball]

And you should keep on making blanket statements with nothing to back them up. That definitely helps your argument. As for metric rating systems, and none supposedly rating him well, there's one in the very first post of this thread that has him as a positive defender over the last 3 years.

 

Another aspect being completely overlooked here is how the versatile all over the field guys are docked by these measurements. Stick Cabrera strictly at 2B like a LeMahieu or Kinsler and take a guess at what his DRS numbers would look like.

 

The Brewers proved with Shaw how the most important factor in defensive performance is positioning. Our fanbase was first-hand witness yet it still seems lost on many.

 

The Fangraphs positional adjustment is factored into that rating. He starts out as a + just for lining up at 2b/SS/3b.

 

Having said that, I think you're making a valid argument. I haven't personally watched Cabrera much nor paid much attention to his defensive ability/athleticism when the Brewers have played the Mets. If he's reasonably athletic and doesn't rack up a ton of errors I could see the Brewers positioning help enough to grade out as a neutral defender.

[Eye Black]

LeMahieu is interesting in that he seemed to be unlucky to some degree in 2018 with a BABIP drop juxtaposed against his barrel % and hard hit% going up from 2017. Then again, his xwOBA has usually tracked well with his wOBA, so maybe it's a true skill decline showing. And while he's really good defending at second base, he's only a second baseman (probably), which doesn't lend itself to the Brewers' defensive versatility credo.

I don't know whether or not it makes sense from the baseball and roster construction side of things, but from the sappy fan support side it would be fun having a guy that grew up playing little league in Madison (from ages 8-12) on the Brewers roster.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

And you should keep on making blanket statements with nothing to back them up. That definitely helps your argument. As for metric rating systems, and none supposedly rating him well, there's one in the very first post of this thread that has him as a positive defender over the last 3 years.

 

Another aspect being completely overlooked here is how the versatile all over the field guys are docked by these measurements. Stick Cabrera strictly at 2B like a LeMahieu or Kinsler and take a guess at what his DRS numbers would look like.

 

The Brewers proved with Shaw how the most important factor in defensive performance is positioning. Our fanbase was first-hand witness yet it still seems lost on many.

 

Would he be as good as Shaw defensively at 2B? Maybe. The Brewers do use defensive positioning to capitalize on strengths, and hide defensive deficiencies. But ... the question is whether what he is going to provide offensively being enough to cover for his lack of range in the field. And whether they can get that sort of offensive production from a player who can play a better 2B.

 

But the fact remains that there are a lot more items (stats and news coverage) pointing to him as a poor defender than those saying he is adequate or simply a victim of circumstance. In my opinion, if the plan was to hide a defensively deficient 2B with shifts and playing next to an All-World defender in Arcia, I'd rather they just keep Shaw there and use that money they would have used on Cabrera on a middle-of-the-order hitting 3B.

[And That]

Here is the three-year DRS for all of these guys:

 

[pre]RANKED BY DRS/Year BY POSITION w/INNINGS PLAYED

 

SECOND BASE

 

Player (Age) 3YR DRS/Year INNINGS PLAYED

----------------------- ------------ --------------

DJ LeMahieu (30) +29 3,660

Ian Kinsler (36) +27 3,528

Tyler Saladino (29) +26 562

Marwin Gonzalez^ (29) +22 399

Hernan Perez (27) +12 418

Jonathan Schoop (27) +4 3,755

Travis Shaw* (28) -4 268

Brian Dozier (31) -8 3,895

Jed Lowrie^ (34) -15 3,047

Neil Walker^ (33) -22 1,965

Asdrubal Cabrera^ (32) -51 1,069

Daniel Murphy* (33) -66 2,747

 

 

THIRD BASE

 

Player (Age) 3YR DRS/Year INNINGS PLAYED

----------------------- ------------ --------------

Adrian Beltre (39) +48 2,358

Manny Machado (26) +46 2,511

Travis Shaw* (28) +29 2,941

David Freese (35) +26 1,998

Josh Donaldson (32) +9 2,421

Marwin Gonzalez^ (29) +8 316

Neil Walker^ (33) +8 181

Hernan Perez (27) +3 711

Jung-ho Kang (31) -2 736

Mike Moustakas* (30) -2 2,410

Asdrubal Cabrera^ (32) -7 470

Tyler Saladino (29) -7 265

Jose Bautista (38) -8 177

Jed Lowrie^ (34) -19 128

Danny Valencia (34) -59 918[/pre]

[True Blue Brew Crew]

No one should be forgetting that the #1 criteria for the person to man 2b until Hiura is ready is likely "positional flexibility". Even if they sign a guy to a 1 year deal, they're going to want it to be someone they can move around when Hiura arrives around June 1. That's why the all over the field types should be everyone's first guesses. CC likes everyone to get ABs, likes to protect hitters against tough matchups, and needs a roster of players with positional flexibility to do it. Come June when Hiura joins Shaw, Arcia, and Aguilar as your most common starting IFs, you want them supplemented with a player(s) who can cover the most spots. Someone like a Cabrera or Gonzalez makes it so much easier to carry an extra pitcher. And carrying as many pitchers as possible is extremely important when you want to limit their exposure to lineups multiple times through. An all over the field player helps you protect Shaw, Arcia, Hiura, Aguilar from bad splits and helps you carry that extra pitcher.