Derek Johnson leaving to go to Reds

[homer]

I think you'd have to look at the Reds staff and compare what they did last year to this year. Castillo, in particular, has been outstanding but he was on everybody's radar as a breakout candidate. They also swapped out some bad pitchers for upgrades. Jury is still out.

[sveumrules]

Some pitching stats thus far. It's still April, but it's hard to not come to the conclusion that losing Derek Johnson was a huge blow to the team.

 

Current ERA rankings, NL:

 

CIN (3rd): 3.22

MIL (15th): 5.37

 

HR allowed, NL:

 

CIN (1st): 17

MIL (15th): 43

 

OPS against, NL:

 

CIN (2nd): .668

MIL (13th): .791

 

Both the ERA & the OPS against marks are being driven by the unsustainably high HR allowed number (in our case) & the unsustainably low HR allowed number (in the Reds case).

 

Pretty much the entirety of the "our pitching sucks" argument comes down to HR allowed which is by far the flukiest element of pitching over a sample this small (still only 211 IP as a team).

 

The most important thing you wrote relative to future results is "It's still April". If at the end of the year the Reds are still top 3 in all categories & we are still bottom 3 in all categories I'll drink a Budweiser Light.

[brewcrewdue80]

Some pitching stats thus far. It's still April, but it's hard to not come to the conclusion that losing Derek Johnson was a huge blow to the team.

 

Current ERA rankings, NL:

 

CIN (3rd): 3.22

MIL (15th): 5.37

 

HR allowed, NL:

 

CIN (1st): 17

MIL (15th): 43

 

OPS against, NL:

 

CIN (2nd): .668

MIL (13th): .791

 

Cincy has played Pittsburgh 6times, Mia 3 times 9 of their 21 games vs. #13(Mia) and #14(Pitts) in HRs hit this season. Prior to yesterday Pittsburgh had as many HRs as Yelich and our Pitchers combined. Also we've now played 3games more than Cincy has with this quick LA home and @St Louis turnaround yesterday. Cincy has a far more experienced staff with only 1 who had less Games started (24) than the Trio combined of Freddy-14, Corbin-0, and Brandon-13. (27) We've got a new catcher too if maybe that matters working with our guys. How does he do with pitch calling, set-up, framing? Maybe there's a little to do with Launchpad pitching on the team because the way Grandal calls it. The sequencing being predictable. Hader has given up a HR now in 3 straight appearances. 1st pitch, 0-2 count, and 1-2 count.

 

But all that could just be like said above, playing these teams it is a familiarity. Veteran teams getting the best of a young starters team.

 

Come back June 10th after Milwaukee has played Pitts and Mia in the last 10games and then compare the squads.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

This conversation was inevitable if the Brewers did anything other than dominate out of the gates. I am very worried as I've said lots of places. But it is April. This is a month where Eric Thames looked like Barry Bonds and many Brewers teams stormed out of the gates to finish below .500.

 

I got beyond frustrated watching last night and will probably take a week off from watching. But hopefully things get better soon. I think this is probably a bigger problem than DJ.

[Jopal78]

The pitching hasn't been stellar because the pitchers aren't hitting their spots. When Houser gave up hits last night he was almost always behind on the batter (only two hits came with Houser ahead in the count), so obviously there was some predictability in what was coming when he was behind in the count, and there isn't a lot of deception in his pitches because he gave up plenty of hard contact.

 

Most of the damage against Woodruff on Sunday was when he was behind in the count. He only gave up three hits when even or ahead in the count including the two homers to Joc Pederson who just had Woodruff's number hitting an 0-1 pitch out and the first pitch of an at bat for his second homer.

 

Jacob Barnes was behind in the count on every hit he gave up except the single to Molina.

 

I don't know what any pitching coach can do which would result in a pitcher getting more strikes earlier in the count. Woodruff, Houser and the other young pitchers will either adjust to start getting more strikes earlier in the count, or they'll eventually wash out of being major league starters. Some guys like Barnes, who at 29 is what he is, some nights his good fastball will get him through, other nights it won't and that's why he's a low leverage bullpen arm.

[MrTPlush]

A pitching coach is not the difference between greatness and pile of dinosaur dung.

[tmwiese55]

Of course t his is a small sample overreaction. But I'd also say the notion that a pitching coach doesn't matter is also a bit off. They're responsible for the strategies batter to batter, helping with mechanics, pitch selection. I think they're very important. Definitely more than a hitting coach. I guess just look at STL and ATL for all those years is evidence to me that a good pitching coach can be very important. Maybe there isn't a difference between say the 7th best guy and the 27th best guy but if you have one of the top top guys I think it's a big advantage. Of course DJ is still very early but it's possible he is one of those top guys. If he turns that CIN staff into good results this year it's a huge accomplishment.

[xisxisxis]

Of course t his is a small sample overreaction. But I'd also say the notion that a pitching coach doesn't matter is also a bit off. They're responsible for the strategies batter to batter, helping with mechanics, pitch selection. I think they're very important. Definitely more than a hitting coach. I guess just look at STL and ATL for all those years is evidence to me that a good pitching coach can be very important. Maybe there isn't a difference between say the 7th best guy and the 27th best guy but if you have one of the top top guys I think it's a big advantage. Of course DJ is still very early but it's possible he is one of those top guys. If he turns that CIN staff into good results this year it's a huge accomplishment.

I think this is where Johnson had his greatest contribution while pitching coach. I believe he is way underappreciated for his ability to setup pitch selection from batter to batter. This is what the current rotation is lacking and considering they went all-in on "rookies" it's even more important to have that ability to know how to approach the hitters. Add-in a catcher who is completely unfamiliar with the current pitchers and I think the current pitch selection/batter strategy is what's been the biggest loss from DJ leaving.

[Roderick]

Add-in a catcher who is completely unfamiliar with the current pitchers and I think the current pitch selection/batter strategy is what's been the biggest loss from DJ leaving.

 

Another small sample size, but look at how the pitchers have done with Manny Pina behind the plate versus Grandal.

[Warning Track Power]

FWIW, Robert Murray of The Athletic had Q&A today and he was asked about the difference between Johnson and Hook and he summarized it as Johnson being stronger at pitch sequencing and Hook being stronger at mechanics. This seems to fit the narrative specifically with Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff. I have to think sorting out sequencing is an easier remedy than mechanics. Let's hope its as simple as that.

[NYChez]

Brewers are still #2 in ESPN’s power index due to its strength of schedule.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi

 

Check back in July after the schedule gets more favorable.

[BruisedCrew]

In addition to the easier schedule, it is possible that Castillo, Roark, and Sonny Gray are better pitchers than the Brewers have without regard to coaching.

[HiAndTight]

In addition to the easier schedule, it is possible that Castillo, Roark, and Sonny Gray are better pitchers than the Brewers have without regard to coaching.

 

 

Well, Sonny Gray is a guy who's always had a lot of talent, it was my understanding that he was pegged as a guy who just couldn't handle the media spotlight in NYC.

 

Roark has been a good pitcher for a while. And I don't know Castillo other than having watched a little bit of him and seeing some nasty stuff. Looking at his stats, coupled with his stuff, he probably is a better pitching prospect that most of the guys we have.

 

But again, we haven't had an easy series yet. We're facing some of the better lineup's in the game over and over.

 

We also have the talent and we'll improve.

 

Still...everyone who saw the gains some of our pitchers had made under Johnson, we had to be a little worried that the performance may dip without him.

[HiAndTight]

Some pitching stats thus far. It's still April, but it's hard to not come to the conclusion that losing Derek Johnson was a huge blow to the team.

 

Current ERA rankings, NL:

 

CIN (3rd): 3.22

MIL (15th): 5.37

 

HR allowed, NL:

 

CIN (1st): 17

MIL (15th): 43

 

OPS against, NL:

 

CIN (2nd): .668

MIL (13th): .791

 

Both the ERA & the OPS against marks are being driven by the unsustainably high HR allowed number (in our case) & the unsustainably low HR allowed number (in the Reds case).

 

Pretty much the entirety of the "our pitching sucks" argument comes down to HR allowed which is by far the flukiest element of pitching over a sample this small (still only 211 IP as a team).

 

The most important thing you wrote relative to future results is "It's still April". If at the end of the year the Reds are still top 3 in all categories & we are still bottom 3 in all categories I'll drink a Budweiser Light.

 

 

That is an awful, horrific thing to inflict on yourself.

 

The truth is, the Reds were a darkhorse for a reason. They added some pitchers who have had really good stretches before. I'm sure you're right and the HR's will normalize, but I still think they've got a talented rotation. The very type that you'd expect to have some very good stretches.

[HiAndTight]

 

I wanted to respond to this too. The excerpt about Counsell from the book "The Chicken Runs at Midnight" was posted here, but I'm going to post it again. I suggest anyone who thinks CC is difficult to work for should read it and then explain how CC transformed from a wonderful guy to some power mad tyrant driving assistant coaches to other organizations. Sorry, I'm not buying it.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24852392/chicken-runs-midnight

 

 

I'm so late to this, it's ridiculous, but I just wanted to throw my 2 cents in here.

 

A guy I knew pretty well was having trouble with his business. I had experience and he made me a pretty good offer to leave my job and come and WITH him to help get things going. There were supposed to be clear lines. He was clear from the start that he was way too easy as a boss, guys were taking advantage of him and he wanted me to handle one aspect of the business while he handled the other.

 

I worked there for a year and I fired a few guys who were doing just stupid things on the job or at job sites, no call-no shows, etc..etc...

 

He'd hire them back because they had families and he was just too nice. I ended up leaving...not because I didn't like the guy and I don't still count among my friends, but because we just didn't work well together. We had a fundamental difference of opinion.

 

I don't mean to infer that the same type of issues occurred here OBVIOUSLY, however you can like a guy and just not believe the same things they do about how you're supposed to go about your job.

 

So if the issue WAS at all CC, I'd imagine it was that the two had a difference of opinion, Johnson didn't love the way CC handled "his" staff and along with a litany of other reasons, perhaps the Reds offered him more of a say over how the pitchers would be deployed and with a young, unproven manager(I think we can safely count Counsell among the young but proven managers by now) it was just another reason.

 

I can't imagine CC being difficult as a human being to work for, but I can easily envision a differeing of opinions on how to best run a pitching staff.