Derek Johnson leaving to go to Reds

[clancyphile]

Very curious Hook name being brought up a guy who seen a lot of these young arms coming up through their system.

 

That may be a good thing. DJ was good with reclamation projects, but he doesn't know Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta the way someone from the Brewers system would.

[NievesNoNO]

I think some of you are jumping to conclusions. I mean good for DJ. Maybe the Reds offered him enough to be the highest paid pitching coach in baseball; maybe they doubled his salary. Who knows. I will agree, he seems to have done a decent job here so I'm disappointed to see him go. That doesn't mean there's not somebody else as qualified.

 

Mark A. is going to have to pay Stearns and Counsel raises most likely in the near future. Maybe he drew the line and said "sorry, no raises for the other coaches" (or at least didn't want to overpay to keep him)

[FVBrewerFan]

1) DJ wanted out for reasons we can only speculate about.

 

2) He wasn't as irreplaceable as we think he is, at least in Stearns opinion.

 

3) Stearns bungled this and lost him.

 

At least one of these things are true. My guess is #2.

 

Ricky raised a good question earlier. DJ may not like how the pitching staff is used. Lots of baseball didnt, even though it worked. Maybe he didnt like being in the middle explaining to starters why they only got 2 innings, or were kicked to the side altogether.

 

All speculation, but I dont believe its just money. If he wanted to be here, and Stearns wanted him he would still be here.

[reillymcshane]

I'm disappointed, but it is what it is.

 

Did Johnson not get along with CC or others? Did the Brewers low-balled him on salary? Maybe and maybe and whatever.

 

But it's just as likely that Johnson wanted to be in Cincy. Maybe he wanted to be closer to his family (have no clue where they live), or maybe he is a friend of the new Cincy skipper.

 

It's part of the game.

 

In the end, I'm disappointed Johnson is leaving, and greatly appreciate what he has done. But now let's look at this as an opportunity and add someone who can help us going forward.

[HarveysWBs]

https://www.theringer.com/platform/amp/mlb/2018/10/26/18026098/world-series-dave-roberts-pitcher-hitter-matchup-decisions?__twitter_impression=true

 

This article is an interesting read about the knowledge problem for observers of baseball these days. I thought about this as I started getting caught up on this board so far.

 

I, like most people here, assumed that DJ was a driving force behind the unexpected success of the pitching staff as a whole. The general notion that pitching coaches make a huge impact has been a major narrative in baseball for a while (and one that I’ve personally been a believer in since watching the Cardinals pitchers seemingly be transmutated into gold by Dave Duncan). But what if that narrative, like the “pitching staffs need starters to go deep all the time” narrative, is wrong? And either way, how would we be able to tell?

 

Can we, as fans, tell the difference between coaching-based improvements and analytics-based improvements? And in a situation like this, where a coach has departed for another team, how can we tell if the reasons were personal, professional, monetary, strategic, none of the above, or some combination? As the Bard wrote, “men may construe things after their fashion,” and we all may as well be reading entrails here.

 

For what it’s worth, someone with a much deeper connection to the figures involved than any of us (Tom Haudricourt) seems to believe the offer from Cincinnati was just head and shoulders above where the Brewers wanted to go, and at some point, the Brewers probably had to have a ceiling, which these negotiations may very well have exceeded. What if it’s that simple?

 

At the end of the day, our knowledge problem still exists. The people with the most information and the most skin in the game made a decision. Because it wasn’t what outsiders like us necessarily expected, we instinctively fear the worst, but I’m not sure we have much reason to be worried at this point. After all, many people worried when we only added Chacín and Miley to the rotation last off-season, and look who was left standing at the biggest moments of the NLCS?

 

Long story short: is DJ leaving bad news for the Brewers?

Maybe: http://gemsofknowledge.com/parables/maybe-taoist-story/

[JohnBriggs12]

Also, Johnson grew up in gibson city, il...kind of halfway between cincy and chicago...Wouldn't surprise me in the least if he was a Reds fan growing up and/or had reasons to try and work closer to home for family reasons in addition to making more $$.

 

I've actually been in Gibson City taking a back road to Champaign. It's considerably closer to Chicago and St. Louis than Cincinnati. Gibson City is 262 miles from Cincinnati. It's 115 miles from Chicago and 183 miles from St. Louis. If you get 100 miles south of Chicago, it transitions to Cardinal territory though not Red territory.

[AdvantageSchneider]

I wonder if the fans are overrating DJ and the front office knows better. The team era was 5th in the majors, but FIP was 13th. Perhaps the thinking is that the success of the pitching staff had more to do with the defense than DJ.

[Zoo]

Maybe DJ just likes the appeal Cincy's shorter season?

[TURBO]

Maybe DJ just likes the appeal Cincy's shorter season?

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I was very impressed with the job DJ has done in his time in Milwaukee, but I have absolutely no doubt the team will be able to replace him with another top-end pitching coach. This team's pitching staff has a ton of live arms and successful guys that nearly any coach would be excited to work with. This team was one game away from a World Series appearance on the strength of their young, talented pitching staff, most of which are controlled and cost-efficient for the next several seasons. There will be no shortage of terrific candidates to take DJ's spot.

[BuckyBrewer61]

I wonder if the fans are overrating DJ and the front office knows better. The team era was 5th in the majors, but FIP was 13th. Perhaps the thinking is that the success of the pitching staff had more to do with the defense than DJ.

 

I wonder the same. This front office under Stearns has showed time and time again to be smart with their investments and ahead of the competition in terms of analyzing players and strategies. While I am certainly concerned about DJ's departure and wish he were staying, until proven otherwise I'll give them the benefit of the doubt that they know what they're doing with their assistant coaches as well.

[clancyphile]

One thought came to me...

 

I wonder if Johnson is the type of person who wants a challenge more than he wants a long time at a place.

 

He built the Cubs into World Series champs. He got the Brewers to within a game of the World Series. Cincinnati represents a big challenge - and perhaps that is what he enjoys.

[KeithStone53151]

One thought came to me...

 

I wonder if Johnson is the type of person who wants a challenge more than he wants a long time at a place.

 

He built the Cubs into World Series champs. He got the Brewers to within a game of the World Series. Cincinnati represents a big challenge - and perhaps that is what he enjoys.

 

Ehh, maybe. I would be surprised if this was anything but DJ getting blown away by the Reds. The Reds have a number of very good young pitchers that he could probably help.

[A Swing and A Drive]

It's always about the money.

[Boomer5]

Pitching coaches make less than Jordan Lyles. Their salaries don’t matter if they are performing.

 

I’m a golfer and I can only relate there but when you find a coach who you can relate to and can make those adjustments you keep him around.

[sveumrules]

Pitching coaches make less than Jordan Lyles. Their salaries don’t matter if they are performing.

 

Recent events indicate the Brewers front office believes that salary does indeed matter. The highest paid manager in MLB makes 5 million. That doesn't even buy 1 WAR on the free agent market.

 

That means either MLB front offices believe that (a) managers are worth less than 1 win per season (highly unlikely) or (2) that the players & managers/coaches are paid on two entirely different scales.

 

Maybe there is a market inefficiency to be exploited there, but it doesn't appear as though the Brewers (who have actively looked to exploit as many market inefficiencies as possible under Stearns) are interested in leading the charge on taking advantage of this specific potential market inefficiency.

[brewers888]

Personally I believe that there must be some sort of turmoil in the clubhouse between the coaches. That is really the only rational explanation that I can come up with as to why a team that was one win away from playing in the World Series would have this much turnover in their coaching staff.

 

I really hope this is not a case of Attanasio being cheap and if it is you have to wonder if he will be willing to pay Stearns at the top of the market which he has certainly earned. We must do whatever it takes to keep our GM in the fold. If Attanasio has to pay 8 or even 10 million per season to keep Stearns he just has to do it. We cannot afford to lose him and hope that we don't hire the next Bando or Taylor. Losing Johnson is a big blow and I really hope its not a sign of things to come.

[sveumrules]

One thought came to me...

 

I wonder if Johnson is the type of person who wants a challenge more than he wants a long time at a place.

 

He built the Cubs into World Series champs. He got the Brewers to within a game of the World Series. Cincinnati represents a big challenge - and perhaps that is what he enjoys.

 

Over the last three seasons the Reds have won an MLB worst 203 games with the Padres (205) & White Sox (207) not far behind, er, ahead.

 

The main culprit has been their pitching which has accrued 9.2 WAR over those three seasons. The Marlins have 24.0 WAR in 29th place. That is a monstrous gap.

 

If he wants a challenge he has definitely chosen the biggest one out there.

[FVBrewerFan]

Personally I believe that there must be some sort of turmoil in the clubhouse between the coaches. That is really the only rational explanation that I can come up with as to why a team that was one win away from playing in the World Series would have this much turnover in their coaching staff.

 

I really hope this is not a case of Attanasio being cheap and if it is you have to wonder if he will be willing to pay Stearns at the top of the market which he has certainly earned. We must do whatever it takes to keep our GM in the fold. If Attanasio has to pay 8 or even 10 million per season to keep Stearns he just has to do it. We cannot afford to lose him and hope that we don't hire the next Bando or Taylor. Losing Johnson is a big blow and I really hope its not a sign of things to come.

 

It is a rational explanation, but definitely not the only one. Many other possibilities have been mentioned in the thread, most of which are equally rational.

 

Everyone is replaceable, that includes CC and Stearns. In fact, Stearns is very young and will likely want another challenge in the near future. I'm not saying I want to lose him, but the world goes on.

[amt2138]

Pretty sure Johnson and his family (2 children) have a home in Nashville. Sure that factored in a little bit as well

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Personally I believe that there must be some sort of turmoil in the clubhouse between the coaches. That is really the only rational explanation that I can come up with as to why a team that was one win away from playing in the World Series would have this much turnover in their coaching staff.

 

I really hope this is not a case of Attanasio being cheap and if it is you have to wonder if he will be willing to pay Stearns at the top of the market which he has certainly earned. We must do whatever it takes to keep our GM in the fold. If Attanasio has to pay 8 or even 10 million per season to keep Stearns he just has to do it. We cannot afford to lose him and hope that we don't hire the next Bando or Taylor. Losing Johnson is a big blow and I really hope its not a sign of things to come.

 

It is a rational explanation, but definitely not the only one. Many other possibilities have been mentioned in the thread, most of which are equally rational.

 

Everyone is replaceable, that includes CC and Stearns. In fact, Stearns is very young and will likely want another challenge in the near future. I'm not saying I want to lose him, but the world goes on.

 

Exactly. This isn't the 90s Selig-Prieb-led Brewers we are talking about. They have a great owner in place who is a highly successful buisnessman that greatly cares about winning, and putting good people in positions of power. When you are successful, other teams are going to pony up to hire pieces of your leadership core in an effort to emulate that success. The fact that other teams are trying to hire our coaches and front office personnel away is a good thing, because it means the rest of baseball is taking notice that the Brewers are doing innovative things the right way. This is only the start. We are going to see more pieces leave, as this team is set to be highly competitive for the next 4-5 seasons at least. There is no doubt in my mind that each of those pieces is going to be replaced with someone equally as qualified.

[MrTPlush]

This is what winning does, people want your coaches, so not shocking to see DJ leave. Our hitting has been pretty suspect for two years now in different forms...not shocked he left. The bullpen coach? Well, not sure there. Maybe they just didn't like him for some reason...it is a darn BP coach for crying out loud. What do they even do?

[Madhawk23]

I have no idea if this factored in at all, but I saw someone mention that David Bell and DJ would have crossed paths by at least one year with the Cubs back around 2012. I have no idea if they may have formed a good relationship during that time or not, but it could be possible that they did become close and perhaps DJ really wanted to go help out a friend and take on a new challenge? Just spit-balling like everyone else here, but something to at least consider?

 

Then again, maybe it is just a money move - and we failed miserably here.

[tmwiese55]

Well I'd at least be happy if we got their hitting coach last year in return.

[brewmann04]

It going to be curious to see if any names leak out for the hitting the pitching coaches.

I wonder if any would be former Brewers or ties with them