Solving the Catcher Position for 2019

[tmwiese55]

No way I'd want to commit anything like 5/75 to a catcher like Grandal, really tough for any non super elite guy like your Posey types due to physical strains of catching and how much people fall off. Just can't see MKE being able to handle that kind of contract, something for 2-3 years is different but even that yearly will be tough here. I'd really be curious on what it will cost on Ramos, should be much less and thus less risk.

[jjfanec]

No idea what our actual cap is for salary but signing Ramos and Murphy would make that lineup really impressive

 

Cain

Murphy

Yelich

Braun

Aguilar

Shaw

Ramos

Arcia

 

I honestly couldnt figure out who should be 4-7.

 

You would likely be committing to go with a rotation of Chacin, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Nelson/Anderson/Davies. You would also likely be trying to move a guy like thames or someone to free up a little cap. Wouldnt mind adding a bullpen arm with Burnes leaving the bullpen.

[long ball]

That's interesting. I think I would prefer Grandal if they're going to make the multi year commitment to a FA catcher. but Ramos isn't attached to a QO.

[reillymcshane]

No way I'd want to commit anything like 5/75 to a catcher like Grandal.

I've not seen anyone predicting this kind of years or money for Grandal. Generally it's been in the three year range, at $11-16M annually. MLB Trade Rumors had him at 4 years, but I believe that was done before he had the QO attached to him. No matter, most predictions have been for three years.

[tmwiese55]

Good, that was just someone's post in this thread. Yea, that seems about right though and no way i'd go past that with our budget. Like I mentioned, tough with our yearly right now but at least it's palatable for the risk with catchers.

[Eye Black]

I still prefer Grandal, but Ramos would be a fine free agency parting-gift. His bat would be a significant upgrade over Piña.

 

Using Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Created Plus (DRC+) here are the last few years of Grandal, Ramos, and Realmuto compared with Piña.

 

[pre]Player 2015 2016 2017 2018

Yasmani Grandal 116 119 93 115

Wilson Ramos 116 99 117 109

J.T. Realmuto 93 93 99 113

Manny Piña N/A 101 95 90[/pre]

[KeithStone53151]

With Ramos, don't forget he's one of the worst defenders at his position in the league.

[JosephC]

Using Baseball Prospectus' defensive metrics for catcher.

 

In 2018, Ramos rated 45th out of 117 catchers.

In 2017, Ramos rated 91st out of 111 catchers.

In 2016, Ramos rated 6th out of 104 catchers.

In 2015, Ramos rated 15th out of 109 catchers.

 

I'd expect Ramos to provide average defense in 2019.

[TooLiveBrew]

How reliable are catching defensive metrics? I can definitely accept the judgment, for example, that Grandal simply was off his game in a small sample of the NLCS. But his mistakes weren't bad luck, he was genuinely awful behind the plate.

 

Have catching metrics evolved to the point of being reliable? Not trying to imply they haven't, I'm genuinely curious.

[Jenkins5]

After laughing whole series at how brutal Grandal was behind plate in only real extensive look at him.... hard to want to watch him everyday. Maybe he was just off but boy he was major liability

 

Ramos would be upgrade

[reillymcshane]

With Ramos, don't forget he's one of the worst defenders at his position in the league.

Could you explain this statement? I've never seen anything that says he's really bad - generally around average. I'm just wondering what you are using to arrive at this assessment.

 

Please note that I haven't seen much of Ramos - so I don't have any pre-judgements other than the stats I see and some assessments I read. I'd be curious to what people are using to judge Ramos. Thanks.

[sveumrules]

How reliable are catching defensive metrics? I can definitely accept the judgment, for example, that Grandal simply was off his game in a small sample of the NLCS. But his mistakes weren't bad luck, he was genuinely awful behind the plate.

 

Have catching metrics evolved to the point of being reliable? Not trying to imply they haven't, I'm genuinely curious.

 

I'd imagine BPro's catching metrics (which incorporate blocking, framing & throwing) are probably just about as reliable as DRS or UZR are for position players.

 

Which is to say far from perfect, but still the best we have & more reliable than any message board poster's estimation.

[adambr2]

With Ramos, don't forget he's one of the worst defenders at his position in the league.

Could you explain this statement? I've never seen anything that says he's really bad - generally around average. I'm just wondering what you are using to arrive at this assessment.

 

Please note that I haven't seen much of Ramos - so I don't have any pre-judgements other than the stats I see and some assessments I read. I'd be curious to what people are using to judge Ramos. Thanks.

 

Seconding this, I've never seen any metrics that show Ramos as one of the worst defenders in MLB. He's not going to win any gold gloves, but he's far from being an albatross.

 

I'll gladly take 'slightly below average' defense with his bat.

 

I actually take back my not going to win any gold gloves as Ramos was a finalist for a Gold Glove in 2015. For however much that means about defense which is very little.

[yoshii8]

I'm really hoping we sign Ramos. A Ramos/Pina catching duo would be pretty damn good. Especially with Ramos being so good against LHP's and Pina being above average vs. RHP's. Seems like a perfect duo and would be a major upgrade.

[OnaBadger58]

I'm really hoping we sign Ramos. A Ramos/Pina catching duo would be pretty damn good. Especially with Ramos being so good against LHP's and Pina being above average vs. RHP's. Seems like a perfect duo and would be a major upgrade.

 

The righty/lefty splits probably won't matter as much at the catcher position though. I would assume certain catchers would be catching certain pitchers.

[yoshii8]

I'm really hoping we sign Ramos. A Ramos/Pina catching duo would be pretty damn good. Especially with Ramos being so good against LHP's and Pina being above average vs. RHP's. Seems like a perfect duo and would be a major upgrade.

 

The righty/lefty splits probably won't matter as much at the catcher position though. I would assume certain catchers would be catching certain pitchers.

 

Good point, although I thought Counsell didn't really do it that way.

[Lathund]

He did in the second half of the season and the playoffs, which is what saw Kratz get so many starts as he was catching Miley and Chacin.

[JosephC]

I would have preferred Ramos, but I'm all for jumping in on Grandal at this point.

 

MLBTradeRumors had Ramos at 3 years, 36 million and he ended up with 2 years, 19.5 million (+ option). When I took a rough average of the MLBTradeRumors, Heyman and Heyman's experts, then the prediction was 2 years, 22 million. That's still a bit higher than what Ramos got, but proved to be a much better estimate.

 

Here are the same three predictions on Grandal:

MLBTradeRumors = 4 years, 64 million

Heyman's expert = 3 years, 39 million

Heyman = 2 years, 20 million

 

The average of those three is 3 years, 39 million. That's really a pretty good price on Grandal, and since the Brewers don't have an obvious catcher-of-the-future candidate in the minors, I really don't see an issue making a 3 year commitment to a player like Grandal who just turned 30. Averaged 132 games over the last three years and slashed .239/.332/.467/.799 over that time-frame. The large sample size over the last three years indicate he is plus-plus defensively. I'm not sure I like him at 4 years, 64 million....but 4 years, 52 million or 3 years, 43.5 million are price-tags that seem pretty reasonable. If he could be had for 3 years, 39 million, then the Brewers should be very aggressive here IMO.

[reillymcshane]

I would have preferred Ramos, but I'm all for jumping in on Grandal at this point.

 

MLBTradeRumors had Ramos at 3 years, 36 million and he ended up with 2 years, 19.5 million (+ option). When I took a rough average of the MLBTradeRumors, Heyman and Heyman's experts, then the prediction was 2 years, 22 million. That's still a bit higher than what Ramos got, but proved to be a much better estimate.

 

Here are the same three predictions on Grandal:

MLBTradeRumors = 4 years, 64 million

Heyman's expert = 3 years, 39 million

Heyman = 2 years, 20 million

 

The average of those three is 3 years, 39 million. That's really a pretty good price on Grandal, and since the Brewers don't have an obvious catcher-of-the-future candidate in the minors, I really don't see an issue making a 3 year commitment to a player like Grandal who just turned 30. Averaged 132 games over the last three years and slashed .239/.332/.467/.799 over that time-frame. The large sample size over the last three years indicate he is plus-plus defensively. I'm not sure I like him at 4 years, 64 million....but 4 years, 52 million or 3 years, 43.5 million are price-tags that seem pretty reasonable. If he could be had for 3 years, 39 million, then the Brewers should be very aggressive here IMO.

Fangraphs has him at 3/$45M - if that helps.

 

I agree he'd be a really nice addition. Combine him with Manny, and you have a really, really good tandem. Figure you give Grandal 2/3 of the starts - Manny gets the other 1/3. You keep each of them fresh, which is probably best for the club.

 

Still, $13-14M a year isn't cheap.

 

I wonder if the Crew is waiting to see if the price drops. This has happened with players who have draft pick comp attached to them.

 

Someone will swoop in sooner or later and get the guy.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Just waiting for the report that the Brewers have been talking to Grandal.

[brewmann04]

think Grandal going to get a higher deal than the brewers want to pay.

[3and2Fastball]

I have yet to see or hear any compelling argument as to how Yasmani Grandal is better than Manny Pina...

[tmwiese55]

I'm not in on a substantial deal to Grandal. Just don't think he's good enough to be locked into multiple years at 15ish mil at a position like C that is so up and down and prone to injuries (the position, not specific to him). Just can't see it for a budget strapped team. Especially when Ramos was theoretically available for 2/20ish. I'd just hold with Pina

[sveumrules]

Between Grandal at something like 3/40 plus the lost draft pick, or...

 

Realmuto at something like 2/16 through arby minus one of Woodruff/Peralta, Ray & another depth piece...

 

I'd probably prefer option Yasmani (even though I prefer JT as a player) just because to me keeping Woodruff/Peralta & Ray is worth more than the additional salary...

 

Which means we'll probably roll into the season with Pina, Kratz & maybe another cheap scrap heap vet.

[sveumrules]

I have yet to see or hear any compelling argument as to how Yasmani Grandal is better than Manny Pina...

 

Despite Yasmani Grandal being a year & a half younger than Manny Pina, he already has 483 more games & 1,866 more plate appearances. Yasmani was a full time starter at age 25, it took Manny until he was 30 to crack 300 PAs in a season.

 

MP 2017-18 | 266/317/410 (90 wRC+) 696 PAs

YG 2017-18 | 244/329/462 (114 wRC+) 1,000 PAs

MP career | 263/318/401 (90 wRC+) 794 PAs

YG career | 240/341/441 (117 wRC+) 2,660 PAs

 

In 2018 & 2017 Yasmani ranked 1st & 4th by BPro's catching metric which include framing, blocking & throwing. Pina ranked 19th & 31st.