What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?

[RollieTime]

I'm sure that I'm not the first one here to say this, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Brewers looked to add a bat and relief pitching rather than a starter.

 

The addition of Moustakas and Schoop last season tells me that they feel that there are holes in the lineup and/or on the bench and, after their strong showing

in the playoffs, I suspect that both Woodruff and Burnes will get a shot at the rotation in ST.

 

Chacin

Burnes (already stated by Steans/Counsell)

Woodruff

Nelson (assuming he's ready)

Anderson

Davies

Peralta

Guerra (if offered arbitration)

 

And that's not even taking into account:

 

Suter (won't be ready for ST)

Miley (FA)

Gio (FA)

 

That's not a bad group to choose from - especially for the long term. I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a move for a #1 (or a #2 with potential to get even better), but I can't see them picking up another mid-rotation starter. Of course, pulling arms from the bullpen (looking at Woodruff and Burnes) would necessitate getting replacements there...

 

Of course, I reserve the right to be completely wrong...

 

This is where I am too. The lineup will have a different face in it by opening day 2019. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Stearns be one of the front runners for Andrew Miller and showing interest in guys like David Robertson or Adam Ottavino.

[HarveysWBs]

My dream scenario would be as follows:

 

-Monitor the market on Donaldson. If it doesn’t materialize, offer a prove-it deal for 2019 and let him go eat (biggest concern here is this vague sense that Donaldson is a potential clubhouse chemistry issue—and I’m not even sure where that impression came from, but I kind of remember reading rumors to that effect).

 

-Watch as no one steps up to meet Miami’s massive ask for Realmuto, and see if they’ll bite on something like Ray, Peralta, Diplan.

 

-Re-sign Miley at 2-$12.

 

-Shop Davies and Anderson to harvest lottery ticket(s), bullpen help, and/or salary relief.

 

-Roll a ball at Woodruff, Guerra, and Nelson, saying “we’re gonna have tryouts.” Winner gets a rotation spot to start the year, and the other two become multi-inning relief aces/starters #6 and 7.

 

Lineup:

Cain-CF

Yelich-LF

Realmuto-C

Donaldson-3B

Shaw-2B

Aguilar-1B

Braun-RF

Arcia-SS

 

Bench:

Piña-C

Thames-1B

Santana-Corner OF

Perez-UTIL (ugh, we can’t get rid of him)

 

Starters:

Chacin

Burnes

Woodruff

Miley

Davies (let’s assume Anderson is traded for salary relief)

 

Bullpen:

Jeffress

Knebel

Hader

Jennings

Nelson

Guerra

Williams

Albers

 

Notes: Houser is the first man up from AAA in pitching help as needed. Schoop is not offered a contract in arbitration (hurts because of the prospects we gave up for him, but this team needs the salary relief). I’m hoping Albers rediscovers himself, but is relegated to mop-up work in this scenario, and best case they cut bait and find a replacement (see Hauser) to save another $1million. Braun becomes the 7th-best hitter on the team ([sarcasm]probably 8th on days Woodruff starts[/sarcasm]). Attanasio must approve a healthy increase in salary to make it work, with Opening Day costing $123 million and change, but I’m obviously hoping he is willing to do so after last year’s ahead-of-schedule contention. Like I said at the outset, this is a dream. H/T to JosephC for salary help, with estimates for Donaldson (1-$20 mil) coming from MLB TradeRumors.

 

Final result: win the division again, defeat Chicago in the divisional round, while the Dodgers beat the Phillies (with Harper and Machado coming up small for Philadelphia) in the other divisional round matchup. We get revenge by beating LA in 6 for a well-deserved pennant. Sadly, we fall to the Yankees in 7 because for some reason we can’t have nice things.

[Smichaelis9]

Disclaimer: this gets pretty long lol. I actually did the BCB one and copied this over, while actually shortening it slightly

 

Arbitration-eligible (with projected salaries from MLBTR):

Jonathan Schoop - $10.1 mil Non-Tender

Travis Shaw - $5.1 mil Tender

Corey Knebel - $4.9 mil Tender

Jimmy Nelson - $3.7 mil Tender

Stephen Vogt - $3.065 mil Non-Tender (I'd love for him to stay in the organization in some capacity though!)

Hernan Perez - $2.7 mil Tender

Junior Guerra -$2.7 mil Tender

Zach Davies - $2.4 mil Tender

Domingo Santana - $2.4 mil Tender

Manny Pina - $1.8 mil Tender

Erik Kratz - $1.7 mil Non-Tender

Dan Jennings - $1.6 mil Non-Tender

Xavier Cedeno - $1.5 mil Non-Tender

Tyler Saladino - $1 mil Non-Tender (I'd love to look at a minor league deal with a camp invite if he doesn't get other MLB looks)

Explain the toughest calls if necessary: I have this weird idea that Tyler Saladino is actually pretty good, so that was kind of a tough call. But, in the end I think his contributions are replaceable and upgrade-able, so I figure we clear a spot and figure it out from there.

 

(109,795,000-10,100,000-1,700,000-1,500,000-1,500,000-1,000,000= $93,995,000 total so far)

 

Contract options (pick up or buy out)

Joakim Soria: $10 mil mutual option ($1 mil buyout) Buy out

Mike Moustakas: $15 mil mutual option ($1 mil buyout) Buy out

Jordan Lyles: $3.5 mil team option ($250K buyout) Would have picked up myself, but buy out

Jeremy Jeffress: $3.175 mil team option (if declined, he opts into arbitration) Pick up

Impending Free Agents

Wade Miley: Let go

Gio Gonzalez: Let go

Curtis Granderson: Let Go

All three were great additions last year, but I bid them farewell

Free agents

#1: Daniel Descalso (1 year, $6 mil) I love the idea of Descalso for one year. Able to play second most games until Keston is ready, and can help around the field after that. As a lefty bat he hit lefties and righties well last year, and has apparently bought into the launch angle movement to resurrect his career.

 

#2: Yusei Kikuchi (6 years, $42 mil which is $50 million total including the posting fee) Kikuchi has solid offerings across the board, and a lefty starter would be ideal in our rotation. There are very legitimate concerns with the arm injuries he has incurred in his career in Japan. However, a system like ours can do a great job of keeping him from being overworked.

 

#3: Michael Brantley (3 years, $45 million) I’m fully on board with picking up Brantley and his fantastic bat for the top of our order to go along with Cain and Yelich. The kicker will have to be him being able to play some first, or playing Braun there more often. Either way I would be ok with it (remember that Brantley was drafted as a 1B by us). Also, this doesn’t actually mean anything but getting both Cain and Brantley back after the CC and Greinke deals would be a nice little bonus.

 

#4: David Robertson (2 years, $16 million) Robertson would fit in greatly with our pen (he throws the 1-2 cutter/curveball combo the Brewers love!) I’d add him to our pen and still be running without a true "closer", having CC manage the game as we go and use his best pitchers in the toughest situations regardless of inning. As the Brittons, Ottavinos, Kimbrels, etc. fly off the board, we sign Robertson to a great deal.

($93,995,000+6,000,000+8,000,000+8,000,000+$15,000,000=$130,995,000)

 

Trades

#1: Trade Yeison Coca to Toronto for Luke Maile

The Jays still have Russell Martin, Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire at catcher so they would likely be interested in getting something in return for Maile whom they claimed off waivers around a year ago. Coca is a lottery ticket guy who came over as the PTBNL in the infamous Travis Shaw/Mauricio Dubon for Tyler Thornburg trade, and maybe turns into something solid for them. For us, Maile showed pretty solid OBP skills this year with a .248/.333/.366 slash and a 34.3% hard hit percentage on Fangraphs and 43% on Statcast from the right side. Not to mention being a top 10 (maybe 5) receiving catcher in baseball. I’d feel pretty comfortable with he and Pina coming in at catcher going into next season, with Nottingham hopefully getting a solid, healthy start to the season in San Antonio.

 

(+$550,000)

 

#2: Trade Eric Thames to the Yankees for Rony Garcia and Miguel Yajure

 

This is meant to be very similar to the Adam Lind deal. Thames would be a great fit for Yankee Stadium as a bench bat or at first. For the Brewers we are acquiring two guys that are essentially lottery tickets in order to clear some cap space. Garcia sits around 93 and touches 96 with two average secondary offerings in his curveball and changeup. Yajure sits at 92 mph, has a changeup that is his best secondary pitch right now and is still working on a breaking ball. Two guys that I’d love to add to our current system.

 

(-$6,000,000)

 

#3: Trade Keon Broxton and Nathan Kirby to Seattle for James Pazos

For the Mariners, they are a team that could benefit from giving Keon a full time chance again in center. Kirby needs to be protected from the Rule 5 and I think including him in a trade to a team that will likely have plenty of 40 man room would be smart for both teams. Kirby is not done as a prospect, but I’m not sure the Crew can have the patience with him on their 40 that a team like the Mariners could. Pazos along with Robertson, really shores up the pen and for cheap in Pazos’ case. Under team control for 2019 before arbitration in 2020 this deal would give the Crew another lefty in the pen, after letting Jennings and Cedeno go, with a fastball in the mid-90’s and a solid slider he would be a really nice addition to the team.

 

#4: Trade Chase Anderson to Tampa Bay for Curtis Taylor and Taylor Walls

For the Rays they acquire a solid starting pitcher with a very reasonable contract for the team. They can possibly cover up his first inning issues (especially if it’s a mental block which it very well could’ve been) by using the opener on the day of his "start". Despite the contract being pretty team friendly, the Brewers clear $6 mil and a roster spot with this move. Curtis Taylor is a mainly two pitch guy who has touched 98 at times, with a good slider and projects to be a reliever, though his working on a changeup is to try to stay a starter moving forward. Walls is a 22 year old middle infielder who showed good bat to ball, and on base skills in 2018 at High A (12.2 BB%, 14.8 K%) and also a nice 22.7% line drive rate.

(-$6,000,000)

 

($130,995,000+550,000-6,000,000-6,000,000=$119,545,000)

 

Rotation: 5 (not really in order)

Kikuchi

Chacin

Burnes

Woodruff

Davies/Nelson (Spring training will give us a good idea if it is at least possible for Jimmy to return to form, or something near it. If not, he doesn’t make the roster. If so, Davies is in the pen most likely, or we use the last(?) option on him, he will be needed to make starts at some point)

 

Bullpen(8):

Guerra

Robertson

Pazos

Jeffress

Hader

Knebel

Albers

Houser

I honestly think Albers can bounce back. Before the injury issues he was having a fantastic start to the season. Just never got back on track after that. I would keep Houser because he is out of options and I still love his profile.

 

Shuttle guys!

Barnes, Williams, Peralta, Jake Thompson (possibly), and Davies (If Nelson is healthy and makes the roster)

 

Lineup (positional only): (12)

C: Pina, Maile

1B: Aguilar, Brantley/Braun

2B: Descalso

3B: Shaw

SS: Arcia

LF: Braun/Brantley

CF: Cain

RF: Yelich/Santana

UTIL: Perez

 

Wrap-Up:

I didn’t make any really big deals with trades. Instead I tried to improve the backup catcher spot and the bullpen, and then leverage a few of our contracts into deals for lottery tickets and use the money in free agency instead. I feel good about keeping Domingo, as Brantley and Braun are still injury risks, and he showed that he can really hit off the bench which is a skill not a ton of players have. I think I'm still set up pretty well for Hiura and/or Dubon's debut(s) and I still have Ray and most other prospects for a bigger deadline move if and when they're available.

[clancyphile]

Based on some off-season events, I am revising my plan:

 

ARBITRATION

Jimmy Nelson - TENDER

Zach Davies - TENDER

Stephen Vogt - NON-TENDER (minor-league deal with NRI)

Hernan Perez - TENDER (sign to five-year, $20 million extension)

Corey Knebel - TENDER (sign to five-year, $30 million extension)

Travis Shaw - TENDER (sign to six-year, $36 million extension)

Domingo Santana - TENDER

Jonathan Schoop - TENDER

Dan Jennings - NON-TENDER

Xavier Cedeno - TENDER

Erik Kratz - NON-TENDER

Tyler Saladino - NON-TENDER

 

FREE AGENCY OPTIONS

Mike Moustakas - (Declined his side of option, allowed to walk)

Joakim Soria - Decline

Jeremy Jeffress - Exercise

Jordan Lyles - Decline

Wade Miley - Re-sign to 4-year, $40 million deal

Gio Gonzales - Walk

Curtis Granderson - Walk

 

RELEASE

Matt Albers

 

Total spots taken on 40-man: 31

 

RULE 5 PROTECTION

OF Troy Stokes Jr., IF Jake Hager, RHPs Cody Ponce, Jon Olczak, Bubba Derby, Trey Supak, and Conor Harber to 40-man.

 

Total spots taken on 40-man: 38

 

RULE 5 DRAFT

Select C Patrick Mazieka from Mets

 

Total spots taken on 40-man: 39

 

TRADES

Minnesota Twins

Twins get:

2B/SS Jonathan Schoop

1B/OF/DH Eric Thames

 

Brewers get:

UT Willians Astudillo - to 40-man

RHP Bailey Ober

LHP Erik Cha

 

Detroit Tigers

Tigers get:

RHP Chase Anderson

OF Keon Broxton

RHP Aaron Wilkerson

 

Brewers get:

IF Kody Clemens

LHP Trent Szkutnik

 

Total spots taken on 40-man: 36

 

FREE AGENTS

LHP Tony Sipp (2 years/$10 million)

LHP Andrew Miller (3 years/$24 million)

LHP Yusei Kikuchi (5 years/$50 million - plus $10 million posting fee)

 

40-man Roster addition

IF Keston Hiura

 

Final 25-man roster:

cf: Cain

2b: Hiura

rf: Yelich

1b: Aguilar

3b: Shaw

lf: Braun

c: Pina

ss: Arcia

bench: Mazieka, Perez, Astudillo, Santana

rotation: Chacin, Miley, Burnes, Woodruff, Kikuchi

bullpen: Knebel, Sipp, Hader, Jeffress, Miller, Cedeno, Peralta, Guerra

 

Other notes: Jimmy Nelson, Zach Davies, Jake Hager, Tyrone Taylor, Troy Stokes among those optioned to minors.

 

The big changes: After Hiura's AFL performance, there is NO justification for signing Cabrera or keeping Moustakas - it's time to let the Keston Hiura era begin at second base. I instead add Miller to Sipp in bolstering the bullpen, and get Kikuchi to bolster the rotation. Peralta ends up in the pen after the September/October shutdown.

[MNBrew]

I think the best improvements the Brewers can make offensively are to reduce the number of all-or-nothing type hitters on the roster -- high K, low-ish OBP (or just plain don't hit much) types. I'm not sure how we get there without just letting guys go (which is possible) because their value to other teams would also seem to be limited, but the list of guys like that currently on our roster are:

 

Hernan Perez (positionally versatile but his clutch hitting is generally lousy & he swings at pretty much everything)

Keon Broxton (defensive is way good; bat this year was way bad)

Jonathan Schoop (not worth keeping unless there are no better possible plans; risk/reward factor seems precariously high on this one)

Orlando Arcia (if his Sept./Oct. performance can become a new norm & if he can swing at fewer crappy sliders, he could be a keeper for the next decade)

Eric Thames (about 40% k-rate, drives in relatively few runs besides himself for a power-hitting/run-producing type of player (in other words, a very concerning RBIs/HR ratio)

Tyler Saladino (2018's version of Sogard v.2017 -- great opening stretch & nothing but decline afterward with precious little anything good (esp. post-DL); early crazy stats made it take a while for folks to realize he wasn't good for much)

Eric Kratz (nothing special offensively for a backup C; needs to walk more to be worth considering keeping around for 2019; intangible factors are high)

 

To me, the only guy on there truly worth keeping regardless is Arcia. Kratz (backup C) & Broxton (5th OF) are maybes for me at best. Thames is solid enough defensively, but if he's not on a hot streak, he's a black hole in the lineup and we need to get away from that tendency. Perez is a better alternative than Saladino but I'd vote for finding a better backup utility IF option than either of them....

 

OR, looking at it from a different angle...

 

Since the Brewers seem to like keeping 13 pitchers on the roster, and if both no-remaining-options OF Santana & Broxton aren't sent elsewhere (or non-tendered in Broxton's case), you'll either have...

 

- 2 backup IFs (Thames & a Perez-type) & Santana, plus a backup C --> this means no Broxton

- 1 backup IF (Perez-type) & both Santana & Broxton, plus a backup C --> could mean Moose or Schoop is here (or not), but for sure means no Thames, w/ Shaw also as backup 1B

- ONLY 12 pitchers, and then 2 OF reserves & 2 IF reserves plus a backup C.

 

I'd guess the 1st option is the most likely, although the 3rd option might be the case until May or until they need a 5th starter regularly.

 

I think one roster consideration is having an IF, OF, or one of each who has an option remaining to allow for the sort of AAA player shuffling Stearns did a lot last year. While that might seem obvious, that's pertinent to my 3 scenarios above because keeping all of Thames, Perez, Santana, & Broxton means the Brewers DON'T have any position players with options left (unless Arcia does, and you normally wouldn't yo-yo your starting SS like that, making him have to stay down at least 10 days every time a pitcher is shuffled). I can't see Stearns putting the Brewers into that situation.

[MNBrew]

TRADES

Minnesota Twins

Twins get:

2B/SS Jonathan Schoop

1B/OF/DH Eric Thames

 

Brewers get:

UT Willians Astudillo - to 40-man

RHP Bailey Ober

LHP Erik Cha

 

Detroit Tigers

Tigers get:

RHP Chase Anderson

OF Keon Broxton

RHP Aaron Wilkerson

 

Brewers get:

IF Kody Clemens

LHP Trent Szkutnik

I haven't looked at all into the prospects in these deals Clancy proposed, but I like the spirit of them: getting something with some future value, even if it's lottery tickets, in return for reducing eventual 25-man logjams at a couple positions.

 

To me, Anderson & Broxton are the two guys with the most potential value to the Brewers. Trading Schoop rather than tendering/keeping him has a chance of Gennett-style backfiring, but as long as a remotely decent replacement is found, I think I'd pull that trigger.

 

... The Brewers aren't lacking in team-controlled depth, and there's just not room for all of them on next year's 25-man. Whether it's these guys clancyphile set forth or others, my hunch is that overall there will still be an interesting quantity of Brewers transactions this winter involving guys with respectable MLB service time.

[nate82]

Take this for what it is worth but here we go:

 

Spoke with a friend who works for the Dbacks. Asked him a few things on the baseball off season. He said the Dbacks are aggressively trying to trade Greinke and haven't found any takers a few things here and there that fell apart but nothing serious. Says Milwaukee didn't come up when discussing Greinke. Goldschmidt talks are in the early stages right now Dbacks could extend Goldschmidt or wait until the trade deadline to trade him. He was very general on that but he believes Goldschmidt won't be traded.

 

Also asked him about Patrick Corbin and he believes he will get a 5-7 year deal at about $20m a season. The holdup right now are the Indians, Mets, and the Giants. Though he doesn't believe the Mets will trade either Degrom or Syndergaard if the Cano and Diaz trade goes through.

 

Before the news broke he said the Brewers were desperately trying to find a trade partner to trade Schoop. This started around September everyone in the league didn't believe the Brewers would extend an offer to Schoop.

 

Asked him if there were any potential trades he thought could happen and he believes the Brewers and the Giants are a good fit for a trade. But he doesn't see the Brewers and the Marlins being a good fit. He went on to state the Marlins are over valuing Realmuto and they are not going to get the value that they want from him and he will be with the Marlins until the trade deadline. He says it is the same problem with Goldschmidt though with Goldschmidt there are not that many teams looking for a 1B or a DH. Value for the 1B and DH types is extremely low.

 

Finally I asked him about Moustakas and he said he shouldn't have declined his option. The 3B market is just about as bad as the 1B and DH market he will be lucky to get 3-years. He predicts that Moustakas will resign with the Brewers for 1-2 years.

 

Again take it for what it is worth just a conversation I had with a friend who works in the front office for the Dbacks.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Great stuff Nate!!!

 

Keep talking to that guy

[MNBrew]

Fun stuff, Nate. Thanks for sharing it.

 

I'm wondering who exactly he feels the Brewers & Giants would match up on (Bumgarner? I doubt the Giants would consider moving Posey, not sure about Will Smith) ... unless, that is, he meant that both were a good fit for a trade with AZ. The way you said it, though, sounds more like your friend sensed a Brewers/Giants trade could line up.

 

On a side note, it's a little funny to see some folks still predicting a week-plus ago that the Brewers would non-tender Vogt . . . . nearly 3 weeks after he was outrighted to AAA (on Nov. 1st), refused the assignment, and became a free agent.

[nate82]

Fun stuff, Nate. Thanks for sharing it.

 

I'm wondering who exactly he feels the Brewers & Giants would match up on (Bumgarner? I doubt the Giants would consider moving Posey, not sure about Will Smith) ... unless, that is, he meant that both were a good fit for a trade with AZ. The way you said it, though, sounds more like your friend sensed a Brewers/Giants trade could line up.

 

Definitely not Posey. A lot of the front offices around baseball think the Brewers need a starting pitcher. Not sure if this is something that Stearns is looking for or if this is just other front offices opinion on the Brewers roster.

 

When I talked to my friend he felt as though the Brewers weakness is their starting pitching even though they have good young pitching he is skeptical that it will work. The Brewers being linked to all of these starting pitchers is not just smoke being blown by beat writers and others. He didn't say who in the Brewers system as he is not familiar with the Brewers minor league system. He said something similar to what the Yankees gave up for Paxton is what he would call the going rate.

 

Again these are all his opinion and not any insider information.

[Smichaelis9]

,

On a side note, it's a little funny to see some folks still predicting a week-plus ago that the Brewers would non-tender Vogt . . . . nearly 3 weeks after he was outrighted to AAA (on Nov. 1st), refused the assignment, and became a free agent.

Personally he was just in the template originally so I just left him in. Not really a true prediction anyway, just a plan for what I’d do if I ran the team. At least I’m pretty sure that’s how everyone is handling it haha.

[wallus]

Yasmani Grandal- 3 years, 45 million. I know MLBTR has him at 4 years, 64 million but I think the market will be soft for him after his less than impressive playoff performance. With Grandal, that will allow Manny to be an elite backup catcher and both players should be fresh. This will also give Nottingham another year to get ready for a possible backup role in 2020.

 

Derek Dietrich- 1 year, 3.5 million with a club option of 5 million. I am concerned about Dietrich's defense at second base but I think Arcia and the shifts can help with that. He can be platooned with Hernan Perez. Dietrich has a career .816 OPS in away games and obviously Miller Park should help his home run totals.

 

Justin Wilson- 1 year, 3.5 million. I like the idea of having another lefty in the bullpen. Wilson is not a LOOGY but can provide solid production and add to the depth of the bullpen.

 

Trade Thames to the Yankees for Sonny Gray- This trade probably makes too much sense that it won't happen. Dietrich will be an insurance policy if Aguilar regresses.

 

With these moves, payroll would move up to around 120 million which wouldn't leave a tremendous amount of room to add during the season. It is possible that Grandal may opt to defer some money which could align with when Braun is off the books.

 

1. Cain

2. Yelich

3. Aguliar

4. Shaw

5. Braun

6. Grandal

7. Dietrich

8. Arica

9. Pitcher

 

Bench: Pina, Perez, Broxton, Dubon, Santana

 

SP: Chacin, Anderson, Gray, Peralta, Burnes

Pen: Hader, Knebel, Jeffress, Albers, Houser, Wilson, Guerra

 

This will leave Woodruff, Davies, Barnes, and Taylor Williams in the minors for depth. I like the lineup for being mostly balanced (minus Arcia) with formidable hitters.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Wallus, what about Jimmy?

[wallus]

Wallus, what about Jimmy?

 

I don't know what to expect from him to be honest. I would rather be safe than sorry and not expect anything from him until he is on the mound facing professional hitters.

 

It would be a huge boost to have him in the fold and performing well.

[Vollbc74]

Trades:

Eric Thames & Adrian Houser for Sonny Gray

 

Chase Anderson & Lucas Erceg for Madison Bumgarner

 

Jesus Aguilar, Zack Brown, & Keon Broxton for Paul Goldschmidt

 

Free Agents:

 

Derek Dietrich - 1/3m

 

Zach Duke - 1/2.5m

 

 

Lineup:

 

Cain - CF

Yelich - RF

Goldschmidt - 1B

Shaw - 3B

Braun/Santana - LF

Dietrich/Perez - 2B

Pina - C

Arcia - SS

 

Bench: Dubon, Nottingham, Santana, Perez

 

Rotation: Bumgarner, Chacin, Burnes, Gray, Davies/Peralta

 

Bullpen: Hader, Knebel, Jeffress, Woodruff, Albers, Guerra, Duke

[wallus]

If the Giants are moving towards rebuilding, why would they want Chase Anderson?

[Vollbc74]

If the Giants are moving towards rebuilding, why would they want Chase Anderson?

 

They get a nice 3B prospect and a Chase is a player that I believe will thrive in their park who they can flip for more prospects at the deadline or next offseason.

[wallus]

If the Giants are moving towards rebuilding, why would they want Chase Anderson?

 

They get a nice 3B prospect and a Chase is a player that I believe will thrive in their park who they can flip for more prospects at the deadline or next offseason.

 

Erceg isn't that great of a prospect as a recent publication said he might be more of a pitcher. in the future Why would the Giants want to pay an expensive player in the hopes of getting prospects when they could just trade him for actual prospects?

[A Swing and A Drive]

Vollbc74's offseason plan is my like dream offseason! Kudos

 

However, I think it will take more to land MadBum and Goldy.

 

I'll try my version:

 

Trades:

1B Eric Thames & OF Troy Stokes Jr. for RHP Sonny Gray

 

RHP Brandon Woodruff, OF Domingo Santana and RHP Zach Davies for LHP Madison Bumgarner

 

1B Jesus Aguilar, OF Corey Ray and RHP Marcus Diplan for 1B Paul Goldschmidt

 

Free Agents:

 

2B Brian Dozier- 1/$8m

 

LHP Tony Sipp - 1/$2m

 

 

Lineup:

 

Cain - CF

Yelich - RF

Goldschmidt - 1B

Shaw - 3B

Braun - LF

Dozier - 2B

Pina - C

Arcia - SS

 

Bench: Dubon, Kratz, Broxton, Perez

 

Rotation: Bumgarner, Chacin, Gray, Burnes, Peralta/Anderson

 

Bullpen: Knebel, Hader, Jeffress, Sipp, Albers, Guerra, Supak

[Vollbc74]

If the Giants are moving towards rebuilding, why would they want Chase Anderson?

 

They get a nice 3B prospect and a Chase is a player that I believe will thrive in their park who they can flip for more prospects at the deadline or next offseason.

 

Erceg isn't that great of a prospect as a recent publication said he might be more of a pitcher. in the future Why would the Giants want to pay an expensive player in the hopes of getting prospects when they could just trade him for actual prospects?

 

Erceg is still listed anywhere for 4-8 on our top prospect lists depending on where you looks with average to a-average hitting tools and plus defense.

 

Anderson is far from expensive when you factor in he has accumulated 5.2 bWAR over the last 2 years and is controlled for 3 more years at under 10M per. He had a 3% jump in his HR/FB compared to his career average which will only be helped by playing in ATT park

 

Over those same years Bumgarner has accumulated a 5.5 bWAR and is only controlled for 1 more year.

 

Now, all that being said, obviously Bumgarner is the better pitcher, but when you factor in Chase’s production, contract, and park improvement, the case can be made that Chase is a good option for the giants if they are headed toward a quick retool as opposed to a full year down.

[wallus]

Vollbc74's offseason plan is my like dream offseason! Kudos

 

However, I think it will take more to land MadBum and Goldy.

 

I'll try my version:

 

Trades:

1B Eric Thames & OF Troy Stokes Jr. for RHP Sonny Gray

 

RHP Brandon Woodruff, OF Domingo Santana and RHP Zach Davies for LHP Madison Bumgarner

 

1B Jesus Aguilar, OF Corey Ray and RHP Marcus Diplan for 1B Paul Goldschmidt

 

Free Agents:

 

2B Brian Dozier- 1/$8m

 

LHP Tony Sipp - 1/$2m

 

 

Lineup:

 

Cain - CF

Yelich - RF

Goldschmidt - 1B

Shaw - 3B

Braun - LF

Dozier - 2B

Pina - C

Arcia - SS

 

Bench: Dubon, Kratz, Broxton, Perez

 

Rotation: Bumgarner, Chacin, Gray, Burnes, Peralta/Anderson

 

Bullpen: Knebel, Hader, Jeffress, Sipp, Albers, Guerra, Supak

 

You think the Brewers are going to start Opening Day with a Payroll of around 130 million?

[A Swing and A Drive]

If they can field that roster, then yes, I think Mark will approve a $130 Payroll for 2019.

 

Let's go for it!

[wallus]

Erceg is still listed anywhere for 4-8 on our top prospect lists depending on where you looks with average to a-average hitting tools and plus defense.

 

Anderson is far from expensive when you factor in he has accumulated 5.2 bWAR over the last 2 years and is controlled for 3 more years at under 10M per. He had a 3% jump in his HR/FB compared to his career average which will only be helped by playing in ATT park

 

Over those same years Bumgarner has accumulated a 5.5 bWAR and is only controlled for 1 more year.

 

Now, all that being said, obviously Bumgarner is the better pitcher, but when you factor in Chase’s production, contract, and park improvement, the case can be made that Chase is a good option for the giants if they are headed toward a quick retool as opposed to a full year down.

 

His spot on prospect lists of a system that isn't highly regarded doesn't mean a lot. His OPS the last two season are .682 and .688 which isn't great for a third baseman. He is around the average age for those leagues so he isn't exactly young. Not that errors are a great judge of defense, but he had 23 in 117 games last season. If he wasn't a high draft pick, very few people would be talking about him.

 

Chase Anderson had a down year last year. He didn't pitch in the playoffs for us over such studs as Wade Miley and traded for little to nothing Gio Gonzalez. I agree that he should bounce back this season, if you are the Giants, why trade your "Ace" for a bounce back possibility.

 

You would highly prefer someone such as Woodruff or even Brown which are inexpensive and offer long-term upside.

[jackailius]

Free agents

LHP Wade Miley 2 yrs $12M

 

"Curtis Granderson 1yr $2m

 

Util/2b Marwin Gonzalez 4yr $36m

 

Trades

Trade Corey Ray, Eric Thames, Domingo Santana, Marcos Diplan, and Tre Supak to Arizona for Paul Goldschmidt

 

Trade Jesus Aguilar for something similar to the Adam Lind deal

 

Projected Rotation

Chase Anderson

Jhoulys Chacin

Corbin Burnes

Wade Miley

Zach Davies

 

I would love to get a TOR but I think we have a lot of good arms that we need to see how they handle themselves in the first half season ie will Anderson be 2017 or 2018 Anderson, how about Davies?, how good will Nelson be? What does Burnes look like in the MLB over a longer stretch? We may not need a TOR or if we do I would like to wait until midseason to try to fill that hole as I think any will cost you Huira + one of the Woodruff/Peralta/Burnes or we will be taking on a of cost (Grienke)

 

Projected Bullpen

3 inning relievers every 4ish days

Jimmy Nelson

Woodruff

Junior Guerra

Adrian Houser

 

High Leverage

Corey Knebel

Jeremy Jeffress

Josh Hader

 

Situational

Matt Albers

 

Projected Starting Lineup

CF Lorenzo Cain

RF Christian Yelich

2B Marwin Gonzalez

1B Paul Goldschmidt

3B Travis Shaw

LF Ryan Braun

C Manny Pina

P

SS Orlando Arcia

 

Projected Bench

C Kratz

IF/OF Hernan Perez

OF Granderson

OF Broxton

 

Summary

I am firmly of the belief that the rotation will be fine without a TOR as long as we have the bullpen to allow them to work short starts. I don’t want to see any of the starters go through the lineup more than 2 times. I added Granderson to the bench as a lefthanded on base guy who is a good clubhouse presence. I liked keeping Kratz over the cost of going with an outside addition at C for the clubhouse and game calling ability. With the addition of Gonzalez and Goldschmidt I feel we can stick with a little lower offensive production at catcher and stay with a good defensive tandem of Pina and Kratz.

 

The bench is a bit light hitting overall with no big thumpers but I feel we are going to have more of an on base approach and Braun will be sitting plenty of days to rest with Granderson starting some of those games. Broxton back was the tough one. I was close to looking at swapping him out with Matt Davidson who just was non-tendered but chose to stick with him for his defense in the outfield and will let Perez play 3b against tough lefties to spell Shaw.

 

I was thinking about bolstering the bullpen a bit and putting woodruff in AAA to start the season to stay stretched out or even just as insurance for a bullpen injury and pickup Britton or Miller but the cost of that seemed too high for my liking and the bats were more important. My plan comes in pretty much right at $125M. Not bad for our first World Series Championship ever!

[Vollbc74]

Erceg is still listed anywhere for 4-8 on our top prospect lists depending on where you looks with average to a-average hitting tools and plus defense.

 

Anderson is far from expensive when you factor in he has accumulated 5.2 bWAR over the last 2 years and is controlled for 3 more years at under 10M per. He had a 3% jump in his HR/FB compared to his career average which will only be helped by playing in ATT park

 

Over those same years Bumgarner has accumulated a 5.5 bWAR and is only controlled for 1 more year.

 

Now, all that being said, obviously Bumgarner is the better pitcher, but when you factor in Chase’s production, contract, and park improvement, the case can be made that Chase is a good option for the giants if they are headed toward a quick retool as opposed to a full year down.

 

His spot on prospect lists of a system that isn't highly regarded doesn't mean a lot. His OPS the last two season are .682 and .688 which isn't great for a third baseman. He is around the average age for those leagues so he isn't exactly young. Not that errors are a great judge of defense, but he had 23 in 117 games last season. If he wasn't a high draft pick, very few people would be talking about him.

 

Chase Anderson had a down year last year. He didn't pitch in the playoffs for us over such studs as Wade Miley and traded for little to nothing Gio Gonzalez. I agree that he should bounce back this season, if you are the Giants, why trade your "Ace" for a bounce back possibility.

 

You would highly prefer someone such as Woodruff or even Brown which are inexpensive and offer long-term upside.

 

When you consider surplus value in the trade I think Erceg and Anderson have a considerable advantage over Bumgarner.

 

Bumgarner is projected for about 2.5 WAR next year for a surplus around 11M

 

Anderson even if he levels off to a 1.5 WAR players for the next 3 years, that gets you a 16M surplus. And I’ve alrwady stated why I think he can be better than a 1.5 WAR player.

 

Erceg could very well give you at least 3 years of 1 WAR (-1oWAR & 2dWAR) play at 3B over his first 3 seasons for a 26M surplus. Not even factoring in his last 3 years of control.