Schoop news (Latest- Non-Tendered)

[Point Beer Is Best]

I'm in a tough spot regarding Schoop, because I don't want to see him on the 2019 roster, yet it would make me sick to give him up without getting any value in return.

 

I get it, but the manner in which he was acquired is clouding your judgement and turning this into an emotional decision. The Brewers gave up prospect capital to acquire him, while he was the reigning AL player of the week, under the assumption he was more than just a rental. It's akin to feeling like you're pot committed in a poker game. Your best bet is to fold under any other circumstance, but feel like you have to stay in the game because so many of your chips are already on the table.

 

If we hadn't given up anything to acquire Schoop, this thread would be like the Chris Carter one a couple of years ago where it was nearly unanimous that non-tendering him was a no-brainer.

[Outlander]

I don't think so, the fact is he did have a great 2017, is still young, it would only be a one year commitment and the Brewers need to bridge the gap until Hiura is ready. This isn't a no brainer decision, would be fine with either decision but it is a big one as it impacts the direction of the off season.

[Mr Southpaw]

I don't think so, the fact is he did have a great 2017, is still young, it would only be a one year commitment and the Brewers need to bridge the gap until Hiura is ready. This isn't a no brainer decision, would be fine with either decision but it is a big one as it impacts the direction of the off season.

 

I said this earlier, but it is worth repeating. Schoops needs to take less money to make this work. No other team is going to pay him $10M to play next year. $6 or $7 million would probably get it done.

[LouisEly]

I really enjoy reading this thread, because it is a prime example of how behavioral heuristics affect decision-making.

 

Specifically, people irrationally overvalue sunk costs and undervalue opportunity costs. What Schoop was traded for is a sunk cost. It's gone, and nothing will change that. In business, you should never make decisions based on sunk costs. This is also why people lose more money gambling than they should - they try to "make it up" by playing longer or trying another game, but rarely does it work; they are making decisions based on sunk costs (earlier gambling losses).

 

People should make decisions based on opportunity costs. That is the question here - what is the opportunity cost of resigning Schoop? Is there someone else they can get who will likely be a better value (value defined as production compared to salary)?

 

An example of opportunity cost is the argument for Dietrich. They can start Dietrich against RHP (which is ~70% of starting pitching) and bring in Perez as a defensive replacement late in games to mitigate Dietrich's defensive deficiencies. The question is how much Dietrich is going to cost, and what they can do with the $ savings (invest in an upgrade elsewhere, buy out an arbitration year, etc.). Will that provide more value? I don't know.

 

Likely the Brewers are waiting until the last minute to evaluate all possible opportunity costs. As they should.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Unless it dramatically affects their 40-man roster flexibility due to some potential trades that could require a bit more room to add players to it, I don't think Schoop gets non-tendered today even if the Brewers don't have him in their plans for 2019. There is too much time between now and opening day to just launch a viable starting 2B due to his potential payroll hit without first having a legitimate improvement already in the fold. I can see him being part of a trade, too - if that's the case you tender him to keep that control while a deal is worked out.

 

I also don't agree with the thought of his likely $10M price tag for 2019 via arbitration severely strapping the Brewers' payroll that they can't make other moves to improve their MLB roster at C or P. Part of me wants them to just tender Schoop and roll with in-house options for 2B, then focus on significant upgrades at C, starting pitcher, and reliever via trade or intelligent FA signings. Trading guys like Thames, Anderson, even Davies over the course of this winter would more than offset Schoop's payroll hit.

 

Schoop is still an asset with value - IMO it would be silly to just let him walk today for nothing.

[A Swing and A Drive]

That's the issue. He doesn't have any trade value at the price that he will receive in arbitration.

 

This is too big of a gamble with the Brewers payroll projected to be the highest in franchise history as it stands.

 

Time to move forward.

[KCBrewerfan34]

You don’t think Stearns has a Plan B at 2nd. Lol

 

A team has to actually want those guys.

[stoutdude04]

As someone who hated the trade, I hope they don't cut ties with him. It's only a one year deal and he could reach those gaudy numbers...I guess. Mainly I hope they dont cut ties with him simply because then it REALLY seems like we blew that trade. If he comes back and has a solid year... it wont sting as bad.

[clancyphile]

The thing is... Schoop's past performance indicates 2018 was the anomaly due to injury and the trade to a team in the midst of a playoff race.

 

If the BABIP goes from .253 to .300, he becomes an overpay, but a decent bridge to Hiura. If it goes to the .320 range he averaged from 2015-2017, then when Hiura forces the issue, Schoop can be dealt for a few prospects, even if it is at $10 million.

[MrTPlush]

As someone who hated the trade, I hope they don't cut ties with him. It's only a one year deal and he could reach those gaudy numbers...I guess. Mainly I hope they dont cut ties with him simply because then it REALLY seems like we blew that trade. If he comes back and has a solid year... it wont sting as bad.

 

That is like losing $50 at the casino and then deciding to throw another $50 in the slot machines cause you don't want to seem like an idiot that lost $50. All that does is make you look like an even bigger idiot when you lose $100.

 

I am not concerned though. Once the report came out that they are trying to trade him or potentially non-tender him it pretty much signals there is no chance they are handing him $10mil. Similar reports come out every year and almost all those guys are non-tendered. Similar things happened with Chris Carter.

 

Why would we be trying to trade someone with no trade value if he is exactly what we need? If we thought he would be decent next year they would offer him arby in a heartbeat, not try to trade him. We could really use a one year stopgap at 2B.

[Fear The Chorizo]

You don’t think Stearns has a Plan B at 2nd. Lol

 

A team has to actually want those guys.

 

I'm sure he does, and if "those guys" are Thames, Anderson, and Davies there will absolutely be teams interested in them at the pricetags they carry heading into 2019.

 

My point is even if Schoop isn't plan A for the Brewers at 2nd, they shouldn't non-tender him today - it's not like tendering arbitration to him today means they have to cut him a check for $10M tomorrow. Even if you truly feel like Schoop is the worst option of anything the Brewers could do at 2nd and the Brewers figure that out in Spring Training and aren't able to trade him due to his arbitration number, they could cut him and be on the hook for what, $2M tops? That would essentially be this year's version of the 2017 Boone Logan cash burn, and I think it's worth keeping options open as the offseason heats up.

[Mr Southpaw]

You don’t think Stearns has a Plan B at 2nd. Lol

 

A team has to actually want those guys.

 

I'm sure he does, and if "those guys" are Thames, Anderson, and Davies there will absolutely be teams interested in them at the pricetags they carry heading into 2019.

 

My point is even if Schoop isn't plan A for the Brewers at 2nd, they shouldn't non-tender him today - it's not like tendering arbitration to him today means they have to cut him a check for $10M tomorrow. Even if you truly feel like Schoop is the worst option of anything the Brewers could do at 2nd and the Brewers figure that out in Spring Training and aren't able to trade him due to his arbitration number, they could cut him and be on the hook for what, $2M tops? That would essentially be this year's version of the 2017 Boone Logan cash burn, and I think it's worth keeping options open as the offseason heats up.

 

I would rather make the right decision now and save $2M later.

[monty57]

I also don't agree with the thought of his likely $10M price tag for 2019 via arbitration severely strapping the Brewers' payroll that they can't make other moves to improve their MLB roster at C or P.

 

How can paying someone $10M not effect other payroll decisions?

 

Cots projects the Brewers' current roster would cost $110,250,000. The Brewers have only had an opening day payroll over $100M twice in their history (2014 & 2015), with their highest opening day payroll being $104,237,000.

 

It seems to me that if Schoop is retained at around $10M, we would probably not be able to add anyone unless we were able to trim payroll elsewhere.

 

MLBtraderumors had the Brewers as a possible destination for Syndergaard. If they are indeed looking into players who would cost some money, I don't think there's much chance that they are going to keep Schoop unless they can come to a deal with him today for considerably less than he is expected to get in arby.

[MrTPlush]

It probably wouldn't effect long term plans greatly, but giving Schoop $10mil would definitely effect us signing guys to 1 or 2 year deals. Maybe even more important it would really effect what we can add in July.

[RollieTime]

Stearns is probably shopping Schoop like crazy trying to get anything he can in a trade before the arbitration tender/non-tender deadline tonight at 7. Today will be a very interesting day for Brewers fans.

[502 to Right]

I was watching MLB Now last night (on the MLB Network) and all panelists, including former Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd, said that non-tendering Schoop was a "no-brainer."

[pacopete4]

If we give him the money, he'll stink. If we waive him, he'll go play all-star ball for someone else. We already know how this is going to play out guys.

[brewmann04]

Brew 4 u is correct

[Fear The Chorizo]

Cots projects the Brewers' current roster would cost $110,250,000. The Brewers have only had an opening day payroll over $100M twice in their history (2014 & 2015), with their highest opening day payroll being $104,237,000.

 

That includes Schoop at $11M, right? So adjusted for inflation and MLB/team revenue, $110M is actually much less of a hit to the organization than either of the other two $100M+ payrolls you mentioned.

 

Maybe I'm shortsighted, but given the team payrolls during 2016 (~$62M) and 2017 (~$57M), I don't see how Schoop's 1 year cost would cripple any other plans to add talent/payroll for 2019 and longterm. And regardless of who's at 2nd for 2019, in 2020 you're replacing that cost with the MLB minimum in Hiura at that position.

 

If they think Schoop's going to stink in 2019 and have a good idea whether his camp is open to a 1 yr contract well below his projected arbitration amount to avoid being thrown into free agency a year earlier than they initially expected in a market loaded with MIF options, then sure, non-tender him - but dollars and cents shouldn't be a factor at all whether they hang onto Schoop's control into December, 4 full months before opening day 2019 and 2 full months before Schoop's actual 2019 pricetag via arbitration would be decided.

[stoutdude04]

 

That is like losing $50 at the casino and then deciding to throw another $50 in the slot machines cause you don't want to seem like an idiot that lost $50. All that does is make you look like an even bigger idiot when you lose $100.

 

 

Slots is luck. Is what Schoop did luck? Perhaps. Schoop did have a solid year hitting just a few years ago. I would liken it to playing poker. Yea...I played a hand poorly, but I think I can make that money back and then some.

 

I do realize your point though, and I do agree. I just hated the trade and would like to see it work out better. Or would have LIKED it to work out better.

[clancyphile]

I was watching MLB Now last night (on the MLB Network) and all panelists, including former Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd, said that non-tendering Schoop was a "no-brainer."

 

In which case, tendering is a good idea, IMO.

[monty57]

Cots projects the Brewers' current roster would cost $110,250,000. The Brewers have only had an opening day payroll over $100M twice in their history (2014 & 2015), with their highest opening day payroll being $104,237,000.

 

That includes Schoop at $11M, right? So adjusted for inflation and MLB/team revenue, $110M is actually much less of a hit to the organization than either of the other two $100M+ payrolls you mentioned.

 

Maybe I'm shortsighted, but given the team payrolls during 2016 (~$62M) and 2017 (~$57M), I don't see how Schoop's 1 year cost would cripple any other plans to add talent/payroll for 2019 and longterm. And regardless of who's at 2nd for 2019, in 2020 you're replacing that cost with the MLB minimum in Hiura at that position.

 

If they think Schoop's going to stink in 2019 and have a good idea whether his camp is open to a 1 yr contract well below his projected arbitration amount to avoid being thrown into free agency a year earlier than they initially expected in a market loaded with MIF options, then sure, non-tender him - but dollars and cents shouldn't be a factor at all whether they hang onto Schoop's control into December, 4 full months before opening day 2019 and 2 full months before Schoop's actual 2019 pricetag via arbitration would be decided.

 

I agree that the team could probably handle the $110M payroll. I just think that would be about it, so if they hang on to Schoop they won't have much money to spend elsewhere unless they can shed some other salaries (Thames, Anderson?).

 

Someone earlier mentioned "opportunity cost," and that's exactly what Stearns is contemplating. Are we better with the team we currently have (including Schoop) at $110M, or are we better dumping Schoop and spending the money on other opportunities?

 

I don't doubt that when they made the trade they expected him to be their full-time 2B in 2019. I think that at this point they are probably leaning towards non-tendering or trading him to save the money to spend somewhere else.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I really enjoy reading this thread, because it is a prime example of how behavioral heuristics affect decision-making.

 

Specifically, people irrationally overvalue sunk costs and undervalue opportunity costs. What Schoop was traded for is a sunk cost. It's gone, and nothing will change that. In business, you should never make decisions based on sunk costs. This is also why people lose more money gambling than they should - they try to "make it up" by playing longer or trying another game, but rarely does it work; they are making decisions based on sunk costs (earlier gambling losses).

 

People should make decisions based on opportunity costs. That is the question here - what is the opportunity cost of resigning Schoop? Is there someone else they can get who will likely be a better value (value defined as production compared to salary)?

 

An example of opportunity cost is the argument for Dietrich. They can start Dietrich against RHP (which is ~70% of starting pitching) and bring in Perez as a defensive replacement late in games to mitigate Dietrich's defensive deficiencies. The question is how much Dietrich is going to cost, and what they can do with the $ savings (invest in an upgrade elsewhere, buy out an arbitration year, etc.). Will that provide more value? I don't know.

 

Likely the Brewers are waiting until the last minute to evaluate all possible opportunity costs. As they should.

 

Excellent post. Before I got to paragraph four, my fingers were already warming up to type the name Derek Dietrich and then you went ahead and provided him as the example. He's just one and arguably the best example of how they can shift gears. But your overall point about how these decisions have to be made is spot on.

[A Swing and A Drive]

The Schoop trade didn't make sense at the time.

 

He might have been acquired just to help against a team like the Dodgers in the playoffs with all their LHP.

 

Instead, he didn't even reach base in the NLCS.

 

Sometimes you just have to cut your losses.

[coolhandluke121]

Schoop just turned 27 in October. He's theoretically not even in his prime, yet he still has arguably had a better career than most of the other options many people have advocated, many of whom have never sniffed the success Schoop had in 2017 and, on top of that, are strong candidates to decline precipitously from their already mediocre levels in the next year or two. He's a good defender and his BABIP is due for some positive regression. He's also a reverse splits hitter, so he's a good platoon partner for Perez.

 

I think 2017 was a fluke, and I don't think such an impatient hitter is likely to ever recapture that magic. I also am not a professional scout or a trainer, and I don't know what went wrong last year. But there's a middle ground between his 2017 and his two months with the Brewers. Look at some of the terrible hitting stretches Bryce Harper has had recently. Look at how Goldschmidt and Carpenter started the season so terribly for sucha long stretch before rebounding. Their slumps were just as bad as Schoop's and lasted almost as long, and they were top-5 MVP candidates by the end of the season. I'm not saying Schoop will ever be anywhere close to a borderline MVP candidate again, but I am saying you can't judge player's based on extended slumps.

 

If there's a better option, by all means grab it. I doubt he's worth $10m next year. But I think he's going to help as much as most of the other options and is one of the only ones who will only require a 1 year commitment. There's also a slim chance he could be an all-star next season, and to me that makes it worth the gamble.