Schoop news (Latest- Non-Tendered)

[KeithStone53151]

The thing about Schoop is that as you compare him to other guys, I circle back to these things:

 

1. Age. He's only 27. The other 2B options are generally 30-35 years old. That isn't that old - but history has shown that as players age they generally don't get better. If someone is going to get better - it's more likely to be the 27 year old player, who is generally considered in his prime.

 

2. He's had recent success. 32 HR and a .293 BA just a year ago. You can hope he can return to that point - or at least get somewhere in between - say 25 HR and a .260-.270 BA. While he's not going to be a high OBP guy, that would make him a really solid player.

 

3. He plays good defense. Some guys - Daniel Murphy, for instance, are awful fielders. Schoop is a good defender, and I think that matters on this team.

 

4. The team's commitment is limited to one year. Some of the better 2B options - such as Marwin Gonzalez - are going to get 3-4 years and $10M+ a year.

 

5. He's been healthy. This is often age-related. He just doesn't have the mileage of the other players - and thus isn't as beat up. A lot of the older players have significant health-related issues.

 

I'm not saying that Schoop should be our guy. The Brewers have to believe he can get back on track. Despite his struggles last year, I can see how the club might want him back.

 

I'm not sure item 4 is very fair, at least using Marwin Gonzalez. His versatility is going to be a huge factor in his contract. If he was a 2b only, yeah then he might be comparable to Schoop. But he's basically a better version of Perez in every way, and a switch hitter.

 

I don't think we keep Schoop specifically because of Hiura and because Schoop lacks positional flexibility. Let's say Schoop posts a 850 OPS or better through mid-June, that's great and all but Hiura gets stuck in AAA. Let's say Schoop posts a 650 OPS or worse through mid-June, Hiura likely takes the job and you have a 2b only wasting roster space...or you cut him and eat a 10 million loss...but you definitely have a 2b that cost you wins. Anything between that leads to a very difficult decision. If he's low-700s(probably the most likely outcome), it's going to be tough to justify benching him when Hiura comes up because low 700s isn't terrible. Or Hiura comes up and splits time and doesn't get a true chance to prove himself. Or Hiura doesn't come up at all and we don't have the best lineup out there in the 2nd half over service time concerns. The 850 or better OPS outcome isn't a BAD outcome, but it certainly isn't ideal and is very unlikely. Far more likely is the other 2 scenarios which would be bad and inefficient outcomes.

[RollieTime]

One interesting route to think about is to let Schoop go and sign Marwin Gonzalez. Gonzalez is projected to get a 4 year, $36 million contract. What if the Brewers overspent a little here to a 4 year, $50 million contract or so to outbid other teams and draw him to Milwaukee? They can cut ties with Schoop now, make Gonzalez the everyday second baseman, and can now include Hiura in a trade for an impact player. I am pretty high on Hiura, but if he could be included in a package for a TOR starter or middle of the order impact bat for a few years, it could be worth it. Especially if you have second base locked down for a few seasons.

 

They can always go the route of signing Gonzalez, keeping Hiura and bringing him up when he is ready, and move Gonzalez into a utility role where he slides in for whoever needs an off day or incase of injury.

 

Signing Gonzalez could open up a totally different avenue for the Brewers in what they do with Hiura and what they could do in a future trade to make a run at a World Series in the next few years. I’m not sure if I would go the route of trading away Hiura, but signing Gonzalez would make it an interesting option to consider.

[sveumrules]

The Brewers faced 6 lefty starters in the playoffs and Schoop started only one of those games (and he went 0 for 5 in that game). I think that tells you all you need to know about his future with the Brewers. He's a turd.

 

Schoop career vs LHP: 693 OPS

Hernan career vs LHP: 737 OPS

 

All that tells us is that the Brewers understand basic splits.

[long ball]

I think he stays for that one year and they role the dice and try to add to the catching spot.

 

If they offer arbitration to Schoop ($10mm estimate) that puts the payroll at ~$112mm. Will they be able to fit an upgrade at catcher into the budget?

 

Sure I suppose they might be able to find a taker for Thames salary and they should pretty easily be able to find someone to take on Anderson, but then the team depth takes a hit and you're looking for reinforcements or counting on sustained success from Aguilar and putting some weight on the young pitchers to succeed and pitch a bulk of the innings in 2019.

[monty57]

One interesting route to think about is to let Schoop go and sign Marwin Gonzalez. Gonzalez is projected to get a 4 year, $36 million contract. What if the Brewers overspent a little here to a 4 year, $50 million contract or so to outbid other teams and draw him to Milwaukee? They can cut ties with Schoop now, make Gonzalez the everyday second baseman, and can now include Hiura in a trade for an impact player. I am pretty high on Hiura, but if he could be included in a package for a TOR starter or middle of the order impact bat for a few years, it could be worth it. Especially if you have second base locked down for a few seasons.

 

They can always go the route of signing Gonzalez, keeping Hiura and bringing him up when he is ready, and move Gonzalez into a utility role where he slides in for whoever needs an off day or incase of injury.

 

Signing Gonzalez could open up a totally different avenue for the Brewers in what they do with Hiura and what they could do in a future trade to make a run at a World Series in the next few years. I’m not sure if I would go the route of trading away Hiura, but signing Gonzalez would make it an interesting option to consider.

 

The Brewers need to keep good pre-arby guys on the roster at all times if they want to have some higher-priced guys. Since our current pre-arby guys will be in arby within the next three years, that means that they need to promote a couple guys every year from the farm to the MLB team in order to always have pre-arby guys on the roster. To do this, they need prospects worthy of promotion.

 

They are a small market, and signing expensive players so that you can trade your prospects for another expensive player will quickly lead you to a rebuild.

[502 to Right]

The Brewers need to keep good pre-arby guys on the roster at all times if they want to have some higher-priced guys. Since our current pre-arby guys will be in arby within the next three years, that means that they need to promote a couple guys every year from the farm to the MLB team in order to always have pre-arby guys on the roster. To do this, they need prospects worthy of promotion.

 

Exactly. We need to see what we have in Hiura, not trade him or replace him with an expensive piece.

[coolhandluke121]

The Brewers faced 6 lefty starters in the playoffs and Schoop started only one of those games (and he went 0 for 5 in that game). I think that tells you all you need to know about his future with the Brewers. He's a turd.

 

Schoop career vs LHP: 693 OPS

Hernan career vs LHP: 737 OPS

 

All that tells us is that the Brewers understand basic splits.

 

And Schoop is about 60 points better against RHP's than LHP's for his career. Assuming there is nothing physically wrong with Schoop, a Schoop/Perez platoon makes a lot more sense than paying an aging, mediocre guy about the same money you'd have to give Schoop.

 

Is Schoop ideal? No. But I think he's one of the better bets out there. If he had played so badly for 2.5 months for some other team and was a free agent right now, I bet a lot of people would be advocating a 1/$10m contract for him as a strong bounce-back candidate, but the sting of choking so bad for the Brewers probably changes the calculus for some people.

[MrTPlush]

Age is fairly meaningless. Schoop is a one year guy regardless and it’s questionable if we even need someone that long. I don’t care how old someone is if they are also a one or even a two year guy. Schoop is young, but he is also gone after the year.

 

I also think it doesn’t help Schoop is a 2B only guy. If he ends up getting bumped for Hiura he likely a crummy expensive bench bat. We don’t need that. Better off just rolling with someone more versatile.

 

He doesn’t make sense. He was absolutely terrible last year minus one week. We hated Villar because he wasn’t versatile and missed a lot...Schoop is basically the same guy with a tad more power.

 

Why focus on when he was trash here? We can just look at how terrible he was for the Orioles last year. He didn’t just get terrible when he got here, he was terrible in Baltimore.

[TURBO]

I hope we sign him just to watch people's heads explode.

 

That should probably be half blue...

[sveumrules]

Why focus on when he was trash here? We can just look at how terrible he was for the Orioles last year. He didn’t just get terrible when he got here, he was terrible in Baltimore.

 

In 85 games for the Orioles last year Schoop hit 244/273/447, good for a 96 OPS+ & 1.3 WAR. Sure, the OBP is ugly but league average 2B in 2018 only hit 254/317/397, so he's trading 44 points in OBP for 50 points in SLG. League average is not terrible.

[MrTPlush]

Why focus on when he was trash here? We can just look at how terrible he was for the Orioles last year. He didn’t just get terrible when he got here, he was terrible in Baltimore.

 

In 85 games for the Orioles last year Schoop hit 244/273/447, good for a 96 OPS+ & 1.3 WAR. Sure, the OBP is ugly but league average 2B in 2018 only hit 254/317/397, so he's trading 44 points in OBP for 50 points in SLG. League average is not terrible.

 

Like I said, ignore his one hot streak:

 

April: .610

May: .648

June: .516

 

This whole “change of scenery” causing struggle excuse is a complete lack of research and looking at the numbers. He sucked in Baltimore too. That Aug/Sept Schoop showed up almost all year.

[Mudville9]

I'm thinking we might be waiting a little bit for input from the new hitting coach. If he sees something he thinks he can fix, we keep him, otherwise we probably let him go. Why hire a hitting coach and then not listen to him right off the bat.

[Point Beer Is Best]

I will have trouble reconciling reconciling a decision to tender Schoop with the decision to non-tender Gennett (both of whom were "2B only" guys), especially considering Schoop at $10M is much more expensive and on the wrong side of the platoon split. And I totally understood the decision to non-tender Gennett at the time. Nobody knew he was going to suddenly learn to hit LHP, and he lacked the positional versatility they were seeking at the time.

[monty57]

I will have trouble reconciling reconciling a decision to tender Schoop with the decision to non-tender Gennett (both of whom were "2B only" guys), especially considering Schoop at $10M is much more expensive and on the wrong side of the platoon split. And I totally understood the decision to non-tender Gennett at the time. Nobody knew he was going to suddenly learn to hit LHP, and he lacked the positional versatility they were seeking at the time.

 

Gennett was basically because we decided to rush Arcia to the majors when Villar was having a career year. Villar proved to be horrible at 3B, so after his hot season he was given the starting 2B spot, leaving no room for Gennett. This obviously turned out to be a mistake, but it's not akin to the current situation.

 

If Huira was a year further in development, this would be a similar situation, but as it stands, we need a second baseman to start this season, as Huira will start the year at AAA. We either pay Schoop more than we probably want to in order to fill that position, or we cut him and hope we can find someone who will sign a one-year deal for a reasonable price who can hopefully be "good enough" until Huira is ready.

 

We're not getting a highly-sought-after guy to sign a one-year deal, so really the trade off is whether it's worth $10M to see if Schoop can be a good player, or whether we should save some money by rolling with a "stopgap" guy to bridge the gap to Huira. Secondarily, the question is whether we could find a better use for that money (is there a clear upgrade elsewhere that we could sign only if we save money by cutting Schoop).

 

It's definitely not a cut and dried decision, and I wouldn't be surprised if the decision is sitting on Schlesinger's desk before it gets to Stearns as it's really a payroll issue.

[RollieTime]

One interesting route to think about is to let Schoop go and sign Marwin Gonzalez. Gonzalez is projected to get a 4 year, $36 million contract. What if the Brewers overspent a little here to a 4 year, $50 million contract or so to outbid other teams and draw him to Milwaukee? They can cut ties with Schoop now, make Gonzalez the everyday second baseman, and can now include Hiura in a trade for an impact player. I am pretty high on Hiura, but if he could be included in a package for a TOR starter or middle of the order impact bat for a few years, it could be worth it. Especially if you have second base locked down for a few seasons.

 

They can always go the route of signing Gonzalez, keeping Hiura and bringing him up when he is ready, and move Gonzalez into a utility role where he slides in for whoever needs an off day or incase of injury.

 

Signing Gonzalez could open up a totally different avenue for the Brewers in what they do with Hiura and what they could do in a future trade to make a run at a World Series in the next few years. I’m not sure if I would go the route of trading away Hiura, but signing Gonzalez would make it an interesting option to consider.

 

The Brewers need to keep good pre-arby guys on the roster at all times if they want to have some higher-priced guys. Since our current pre-arby guys will be in arby within the next three years, that means that they need to promote a couple guys every year from the farm to the MLB team in order to always have pre-arby guys on the roster. To do this, they need prospects worthy of promotion.

 

They are a small market, and signing expensive players so that you can trade your prospects for another expensive player will quickly lead you to a rebuild.

 

Agreed, I think that they need to hold onto Hiura. 6 years of him is too appealing to me. He could be a staple in our lineup for a long time.

[502 to Right]

 

If Huira was a year further in development, this would be a similar situation, but as it stands, we need a second baseman to start this season, as Huira will start the year at AAA. We either pay Schoop more than we probably want to in order to fill that position, or we cut him and hope we can find someone who will sign a one-year deal for a reasonable price who can hopefully be "good enough" until Huira is ready.

 

We're not getting a highly-sought-after guy to sign a one-year deal, so really the trade off is whether it's worth $10M to see if Schoop can be a good player, or whether we should save some money by rolling with a "stopgap" guy to bridge the gap to Huira. Secondarily, the question is whether we could find a better use for that money (is there a clear upgrade elsewhere that we could sign only if we save money by cutting Schoop).

 

I think we should keep in mind that playing Shaw at 2B in 2019 is probably on the table. So that the 2B position could be filled by finding a 3B for 2019.

 

I was highly critical of playing Shaw at 2B in 2018 but the defensive metrics (that we have access to anyway) show that Shaw wasn't terrible at 2B. He easily passed the eye test as well. If the Brewers could find a stopgap 3B for 2019 they might have their answer to 2B as well. Then any contribution by Hiura in 2019 would be icing on the cake.

[sveumrules]

Why focus on when he was trash here? We can just look at how terrible he was for the Orioles last year. He didn’t just get terrible when he got here, he was terrible in Baltimore.

 

In 85 games for the Orioles last year Schoop hit 244/273/447, good for a 96 OPS+ & 1.3 WAR. Sure, the OBP is ugly but league average 2B in 2018 only hit 254/317/397, so he's trading 44 points in OBP for 50 points in SLG. League average is not terrible.

 

Like I said, ignore his one hot streak:

 

April: .610

May: .648

June: .516

 

This whole “change of scenery” causing struggle excuse is a complete lack of research and looking at the numbers. He sucked in Baltimore too. That Aug/Sept Schoop showed up almost all year.

 

Schoop started the year slow. Then he strained his oblique. Maybe lingering effects contributed to his struggles in May & June? Maybe he was already feeling some discomfort at the beginning of the year before it popped and he had to DLed? Who knows?

 

In July he posted a 184 wRC+, 7th best in MLB. Maybe his one hot streak (that lasted an entire month) was a result of finally feeling healthy & getting his swing back? Who knows? It seems like our front office believed it was at least partially a positive indicator as I don't see them trading for anyone who they believe clearly sucked. Or was a turd.

 

But why focus on a bunch of small, sliced up samples & unanswerable questions in the first place? The body of work shows that Schoop is a league average second baseman, whose poor approach leads to a higher volatility in his year to year results since his offense relies almost entirely on BABIP success.

 

Is that worth 10 million on a one year deal to a team in Milwaukee's position on the financial financial spectrum & win curve? We'll find out eventually.

[rickh150]

Nuts if we take on his big salary when he performed so poorly.

Worst looking batter against any sort of righty with mid to high 90's heat. Nice D, though, and couldn't possibly be worse at bat than what he showed last season with us, yet really this should be an easy one.

And there are a few better veteran 2B for potentially less $ on two or three year deals.

And we have Hiura in the wings.

And we have Shaw if need be...

[clancyphile]

Taking a look at some of the advanced states at Baseball Reference (https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schoojo01-bat.shtml) Schoop had a BABIP that was .259 with the Brewers. In 2015, the BABIP was .329. 2016's was .305, and 2017's was .330.

 

His overall BABIP in 2018 (.261) was the lowest since 2014, his rookie year. Injury, adjusting to a new league, and a playoff race may have thrown Schoop off. A rebound to a BABIP in the .320 range might very well be possible.

[DHonks]

clancy, one issue is that BABIP doesn't account for Schoop seemingly rarely hitting the ball

[sveumrules]

League average K%, non pitchers 2016-2018

 

20.6%, 21.2%, 21.7%

 

Jonathan Schoop K%, 2016-18

 

21.2%, 21.0%, 23.0%

 

If Schoop would have had a league average K rate in 2018 it would have meant six more balls in play.

[DHonks]

I had never heard of him until we acquired him. His 30.6% K% is what was obviously referenced, as he rarely hit the ball as a Brewer. His BABIP sucked, and that's likely a fluke. But failing to put the ball in play (aka striking out 50% more than MLB avg) AND having a low BABIP doubly explain his failure.

[502 to Right]

League average K%, non pitchers 2016-2018

 

20.6%, 21.2%, 21.7%

 

Jonathan Schoop K%, 2016-18

 

21.2%, 21.0%, 23.0%

 

If Schoop would have had a league average K rate in 2018 it would have meant six more balls in play.

 

Probably would have been 6 more GIDP.

[JohnBriggs12]

His sample size as a Brewer is all of 134 PA and 8 more in the postseason. Prior to the trade, he had spent his entire career in the Baltimore organization. It's not like he was a veteran who'd experienced being traded from a cellar dweller to a contender before. The worst thing a player in baseball can do is put extra pressure on himself and it's obvious he did. Even Machado didn't perform as well for LA (.825 OPS) as he had in Baltimore (.963 OPS).

[Thurston Fluff]

Nuts if we take on his big salary when he performed so poorly.

Worst looking batter against any sort of righty with mid to high 90's heat. Nice D, though, and couldn't possibly be worse at bat than what he showed last season with us, yet really this should be an easy one.

And there are a few better veteran 2B for potentially less $ on two or three year deals.

And we have Hiura in the wings.

And we have Shaw if need be...

 

The problem is they would need two or three year deals. That is a roster spot being used on someone who may only start for half a season. Using that spot on someone to play the same role as Perez or Dubon means losing a spot to protect someone on the 40 man roster next year. Or to risk losing someone who is out of options and equally valuable for less money. For me Schoop's main value is that it is only a one year commitment.