2019 Payroll

[Greenleaf1]

Just looking ahead at what kind of payroll the Brewers will have committed for 2019. I'm making some assumptions that guys like Chase Anderson will still be here (although I kinda forgot how cheap his non-option years were), but there's a possibility some of this money comes off the books via trade, but also a good possibility that we add more money in areas as well.

 

* = Projected in Arbitration

 

SP:

- Chase Anderson: $6M

- Jhoulys Chacin: $6M

- Jimmy Nelson: $3.7M*

- Junior Guerra: $2.7M*

- Zach Davies: $2.4M*

- Corbin Burnes: $555K

- Brandon Woodruff: $555K

- Freddy Peralta: $555K

 

RP:

- Joakim Soria: $10M mutual option ($1M Buyout)

- Corey Knebel: $4.9M*

- Jordan Lyles: $3.5M club option ($250K Buyout)

- Jeremy Jeffress: $3.175M

- Matt Albers: $2.5M

- Dan Jennings: $1.6M*

- Xavier Cedeño: $1.5M*

- Josh Hader: $555K

- Jacob Barnes: $555K

- Adrian Houser: $555K

- Brent Suter: $555K

- Taylor Williams: $555K

 

OF:

- Ryan Braun: $18M ($3M deferred)

- Lorenzo Cain: $15M ($1M deferred)

- Christian Yelich: $9.75M

- Domingo Santana: $2M*

 

IF:

- Mike Moustakas - $15M mutual option ($1M Buyout)

- Jonathan Schoop: $10.1M*

- Eric Thames: $6M

- Travis Shaw: $5.1M*

- Stephen Vogt: $3.065M*

- Hernan Perez: $2.7M*

- Manny Piña: $1.8M*

- Erik Kratz: $1.7M*

- Tyler Saladino: $1M*

- Jesus Aguilar: $555K

- Orlando Arcia: $555K

- Jacob Nottingham: $555K

 

As far as those with above-minimum salaries go, I think we can probably assume:

- Soria: $1M Buyout

- Moustakas: We exercise option, Moustakas either accepts for $15M or we owe nothing (I'm assuming that's how buyouts work with mutual options, we don't pay unless we don't exercse our end)

- Lyles: $250K Buyout

- Jennings: Tender

- Cedeno: Tender

- Nelson: Tender

- Davies: Tender

- Guerra: Tender

- Santana: Tender

- Schoop: Tender

- Shaw: Tender

- Vogt: Non-Tender

- Perez: Tender

- Pina: Tender

- Kratz: Non-Tender (guessing they'll try to sign him on a minor league deal though)

- Saladino: Non-Tender (same as Kratz, try for minor league deal)

 

Assuming all these are correct, that leaves us with a payroll for the above players of $112.28M (plus whatever the cost of Moustakas would end up, +$15M or +$1M)

 

Obviously there's more than 25 players there so cut out a few minimum salaries and maybe get down to $110

 

Don't forget that tendering a contract would still allow the Brewers to cut several guys in spring training and only pay them like 30 days salary. Guys like Jennings/Cedeño/Vogt/Kratz/Saladino could just fall into that camp. That's why I assume they tender most of those guys instead of outright releasing them. Even if there's only an outside chance some of them make the team (can't see both Jennings/Cedeño making it), might as well keep the depth around for a minimal cost.

 

 

I'd say it seems that the Brewers can't keep both Moustakas and Schoop. Which means if they pick up Moustakas' option, Schoop will certainly be on the trade block.

 

As for additional money, I think the Brewers could really benefit from another late-inning relief arm and a starting catcher, but they'll probably still be pretty good without either of those if the price is too high. We'll have to wait and see.

 

What does everyone else think?

[KeithStone53151]

That's about where I have it also. I would be surprised if we don't make some moves with infielders and pitchers, try to unload some players. We have a ton of SP and infield options. I personally think Schoop and Moose are both gone and we figure out a different 2nd utility guy to go with Perez. And do the same platoon thing at 2b with Perez and ? until Hiura takes over.

 

The easy obvious places to help the team will be the bullpen and catcher. Bullpen only because we'll lose Burnes/Woodruff to the rotation.

[MrTPlush]

Would not be shocked a all to see Chase Anderson go to save money. I don't think he is a pitching option at all next year. He wasn't bad, but not really a place with out current roster structure. I also wouldn't be shocked to see Thames moved to save that money.

 

You probably can save $10mil or so by trading away Anderson and Thames. I think you could unload Anderson with his entire salary and Thames still has to get some interest.

[KeithStone53151]

Would not be shocked a all to see Chase Anderson go to save money. I don't think he is a pitching option at all next year. He wasn't bad, but not really a place with out current roster structure. I also wouldn't be shocked to see Thames moved to save that money.

 

You probably can save $10mil or so by trading away Anderson and Thames. I think you could unload Anderson with his entire salary and Thames still has to get some interest.

 

I thought the same of both guys. Anderson wouldn't simply be a salary dump though. His contract is still team friendly, especially considering the later years are options. Thames is tougher to judge, 1b/DH can play corner OF in a pinch...big power and decent numbers but very streaky. I also wondered if Davies could be on the move depending on what we could get.

[MrTPlush]

Would not be shocked a all to see Chase Anderson go to save money. I don't think he is a pitching option at all next year. He wasn't bad, but not really a place with out current roster structure. I also wouldn't be shocked to see Thames moved to save that money.

 

You probably can save $10mil or so by trading away Anderson and Thames. I think you could unload Anderson with his entire salary and Thames still has to get some interest.

 

I thought the same of both guys. Anderson wouldn't simply be a salary dump though. His contract is still team friendly, especially considering the later years are options. Thames is tougher to judge, 1b/DH can play corner OF in a pinch...big power and decent numbers but very streaky. I also wondered if Davies could be on the move depending on what we could get.

 

Problem with Thames is he still has another year ($7.5mil player option) so a team has to commit two years to him. I still think we could save $3mil per year from someone.

 

Anderson isn't a salary dump, but not someone about to bring much meaningful (face value).

 

I think I would hold onto Davies. He still has an option and I think he is really good starter depth at AAA we will be quite happy to have when the need arises. His price tag won't be very high so the depth is definitely worth the cost.

[long ball]

I agree that we're looking at ~$110mil before Moustakas, Soria, ans Schoop decisions are made. (I don't think any will be back)

 

Anderson could be moved, but they would need to get something worthwhile, because he really is on a pretty team friendly deal.

 

Thames would basically need to be given away if a team takes on his salary. There are freely available first basemen on the free agent market and we saw how those guys did in free agency last season (hint: not well). I think he's part of a softish platoon with Aguilar at first going into next season.

[KeithStone53151]

I agree that we're looking at ~$110mil before Moustakas, Soria, ans Schoop decisions are made. (I don't think any will be back)

 

Anderson could be moved, but they would need to get something worthwhile, because he really is on a pretty team friendly deal.

 

Thames would basically need to be given away if a team takes on his salary. There are freely available first basemen on the free agent market and we saw how those guys did in free agency last season (hint: not well). I think he's part of a softish platoon with Aguilar at first going into next season.

 

Thames hasn't handled part time duty very well. I think he's gotta go. I hate to say it because he's a good dude and I've enjoyed watching him, but that 2 1b thing really limits our flexibility in a bad way and is only worth it if both mash.

[long ball]

I agree that we're looking at ~$110mil before Moustakas, Soria, ans Schoop decisions are made. (I don't think any will be back)

 

Anderson could be moved, but they would need to get something worthwhile, because he really is on a pretty team friendly deal.

 

Thames would basically need to be given away if a team takes on his salary. There are freely available first basemen on the free agent market and we saw how those guys did in free agency last season (hint: not well). I think he's part of a softish platoon with Aguilar at first going into next season.

 

Thames hasn't handled part time duty very well. I think he's gotta go. I hate to say it because he's a good dude and I've enjoyed watching him, but that 2 1b thing really limits our flexibility in a bad way and is only worth it if both mash.

 

I'm fine if they trade Thames, but you're going to have to find a team to take on most of the money without giving anything back in return. Matt Adams, Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison are all available on the FA market and offer basically the same thing Thames offers for ~ the same price on a 1 year commitment.

[clancyphile]

If the Crew either trades or lets Soria, Vogt, Jennings, Lyles, Anderson, Thames, and Schoop walk, they'd have about $40 million to work with.

 

Use $10 million or so for Kikuchi, then maybe look at getting Michael Brantley for the outfield and moving Braun back to first.

[MrTPlush]

Chase Anderson isn’t really on a team friendly deal when he is a homer prone bullpen arm. If he isn’t in our rotation how nice is that deal?

[tmwiese55]

I agree that we're looking at ~$110mil before Moustakas, Soria, ans Schoop decisions are made. (I don't think any will be back)

 

Anderson could be moved, but they would need to get something worthwhile, because he really is on a pretty team friendly deal.

 

Thames would basically need to be given away if a team takes on his salary. There are freely available first basemen on the free agent market and we saw how those guys did in free agency last season (hint: not well). I think he's part of a softish platoon with Aguilar at first going into next season.

 

Thames hasn't handled part time duty very well. I think he's gotta go. I hate to say it because he's a good dude and I've enjoyed watching him, but that 2 1b thing really limits our flexibility in a bad way and is only worth it if both mash.

 

I'm fine if they trade Thames, but you're going to have to find a team to take on most of the money without giving anything back in return. Matt Adams, Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison are all available on the FA market and offer basically the same thing Thames offers for ~ the same price on a 1 year commitment.

 

If you could dump Thames for nothing just to clear salary it would really help justify Moose since it's close to covering half right there. If Schoop or whoever you get to play 2B is competent vs RH Shaw can get a lot of starts at 1B vs righties. This is assuming Jesus ends up back to more of a platoon type player who you don't play every day. I hope Jesus proves me wrong but that's the more likely future for him imo. Keeps him fresh and optimizes splits.

[JosephC]

Cot's Baseball Contracts has Thames' 2020 season as a club option. If that is correct, he is owed 6 million dollars for 2019 and a 1 million dollar buyout for 2020 (7.5 million dollar salary if that season is picked up).

[adambr2]

Yeah Thames' option for 2020 is team, not player. So it's a 1 year commitment with flexibility for the team.

[Outlander]

With Moose/Schoop/Soria there is $35 million dollars that can go one way or the other so it is hard to tell how much flexibility they really have right now. Really can have anywhere between 95-135 million payroll before free agency begins.

[adambr2]

With Moose/Schoop/Soria there is $35 million dollars that can go one way or the other so it is hard to tell how much flexibility they really have right now. Really can have anywhere between 95-135 million payroll before free agency begins.

 

My guess is none of the 3 are back and we have that 35M to work with. Would you really miss any of them that much?

 

Soria - It's not outrageous at $10M but it's telling that Stearns has never paid that much for a reliever. I think he's concerned about the volatility of relievers from year to year, and rightfully so. He will go into this year with the guys he has, check out the reliever market on non-contending teams in late July, and then use the depth of the farm to rent a Soria type that he's not sure he is going to be able to keep anyway. That's been his model the last 2 seasons.

 

Schoop - I get the temptation to see if he can rebound to 2017 form, but we can't afford to compound the mistake here. Just cut your losses and move on. When Eduardo Escobar types are going for $7M a year, Schoop at 10 is just not a worthwhile investment. I guess I could be sold on giving him another shot at $3-$5M after a non-tender, but I don't get the vibe that he has any interest in being here.

 

Moustakas- I think we tend to overrate him. He's okay. He doesn't get on base well. He's not a good baserunner. He's a decent glove at 3rd, but he's certainly not the Orlando Arcia of 3rd basemen. He's got nice pop in his bat but doesn't really offer much else. There's nothing really about Moose that Travis Shaw doesn't do equally well or better for much less of a cost. I think we acquired him because we could easily afford the luxury in both dollars and trade capital. For $15M or a multi-year deal, I think our assets are best applied elsewhere.

[3and2Fastball]

Anderson seems like the type of pitcher who would thrive more in a pitcher's park like San Diego or Miami. I think he'll be traded to somebody for prospects. Davies & Thames will likely be traded too

[long ball]

Anderson seems like the type of pitcher who would thrive more in a pitcher's park like San Diego or Miami. I think he'll be traded to somebody for prospects. Davies & Thames will likely be traded too

 

If the trade Davies and Anderson that's a huge hit to the pitching depth and would need to be replaced by either trade or free agency. You're not going to get a pitcher as good as Davies in free agency for what Davies will cost in arbitration. I think it makes sense to move Anderson if they can get a decent return, but I can't see moving both.

 

If they moved both they're down to Chacin and Guerra as your established MLB starters. Then counting on Peralta, Burnes, Woodruff to take a step forward and a healthy bounce back season from Nelson.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't think there's any way they trade both Davies and Anderson. I could see one going, but the return would have to be good. You simply don't give away inexpensive, established and controllable above-average starting pitching. Despite Anderson's faults, his overall numbers in 2018 were solid after his breakout 2017. Davies is young and cheap. There is a lot of value there in both of them.

 

It is shaping up to be a super interesting offseason.