Brewers offseason trades

[clancyphile]

Trade One

Mets get:

RHP Chase Anderson

OF/1B Eric Thames

 

Brewers get:

IF Jeff McNeil

SS/2B Gavin Cecchini

C Patrick Mazeika

RHP Bobby Wahl

 

Trade Two

Twins get:

2B/SS Jonathan Schoop

OF Keon Broxton

 

Brewers get:

RHP Bryant Perez

LHP Erik Cha

UT Ruben Santana

 

Trade Three

Marlins get:

1B Jesus Aguilar

C Jacob Nottingham

RHP Adrian Houser

SS/2B Maurico Dubon

RHP Marcos Diplan

 

Brewers get:

C JT Realmuto

OF Tristan Pompey

 

McNeil is acquired to be a cheap stopgap at second base, and he can provide a high-average bat that puts the ball in play. He addresses the weakness that became apparent during the NLCS. Cecchini and Mazeiki also do so, and could be valuable reserves. Wahl is a late-inning relief type. If the Crew keeps Moustakas, then McNeil joins Perez on the bench. McNeil has minor-league experience at SS, 3B, and the OF as well.

 

The Twins deal is for lottery tickets. With McNeil and Cecchini, plus Hiura, the Crew can deal Schoop to the Twins and try to get something for him. I picked a starter, a reliever, and a utility player.

 

For the Marlins, I go for the catcher upgrade in Realmuto, and add Pompey as a lottery pick, since the Crew is giving up five players.

 

Opening day 2019 lineup:

cf: Cain

1b: Braun

lf: Yelich

c: Realmuto

2b: Shaw

3b: Moustakas

rf: Santana

ss: Arcia

bench: Pina, McNeil, Perez, Granderson, Taylor

rotation: Kikuchi, Burnes, Woodruff, Miley, Chacin

bullpen: Jeffress, Knebel, Hader, Peralta, Barnes, QTC, Guerra

[MadThinker88]

I don't see the Marlins accepting that deal for Realmuto. They were demanding one of Robles or Soto in a possible deal with Washington & the Nationals passed.

 

Unless Hiura is in the package, I doubt the Marlins entertain any offer from the Brewers.

[OldHeidelberg]

I don't see the Marlins accepting that deal for Realmuto. They were demanding one of Robles or Soto in a possible deal with Washington & the Nationals passed.

 

Unless Hiura is in the package, I doubt the Marlins entertain any offer from the Brewers.

 

Aguilar had 3.2 bWar this season and Realmuto 4.3 and Aguilar has several more season of control remaining than Realmuto. I am not sure I disagree the Marlin's would not do this trade but Aguilar would be the big piece in place of Hiura. That said I would love that trade for the Brewers, probably means it would never happen.

[LouisEly]

Opening day 2019 lineup:

cf: Cain

1b: Braun

lf: Yelich

c: Realmuto

2b: Shaw

3b: Moustakas

rf: Santana

ss: Arcia

bench: Pina, McNeil, Perez, Granderson, Taylor

rotation: Kikuchi, Burnes, Woodruff, Miley, Chacin

bullpen: Jeffress, Knebel, Hader, Peralta, Barnes, QTC, Guerra

Where are the Nelson, Davies, and Anderson trades? And how are they going to financially fit Kikuchi, Miley, and Moustakas (plus Realmuto's arby increase) into their budget?

[JosephC]

Aguilar was a 3+ WAR player this season, but he's a one-year wonder who slashed .245/.324/.436/.760 after the All-Star break in that one year, and that is rather average for a first baseman. If teams didn't put "apparent" value on a player like Domingo Santana last year, I find it hard to believe they would give the Brewers a 3+ WAR price for a 28 year old first baseman who had 1/2 of a great season. I'm not saying Aguilar has no value, but I can't believe he would be the headliner in a trade for a player like Realmuto.

 

At least now we are at the point where Realmuto is only controlled for 2 more seasons, so while the price tag will be high it shouldn't be astronomical. If I'm the Marlins I'd start even higher than this but in the end would be happy to get a package like Keston Hiura, Adrian Houser, Zack Brown and Trey Supak.

[clancyphile]

Kikuchi, Realmuto, and Miley are affordable thanks to the dealing of Schoop, Thames, and Anderson, while letting Soria walk.

 

That's $32.5 million, give or take.

 

Nelson and Davies are on the outside looking in - mostly due to missing so much time with injury this past season.

 

The Aguilar-Nottingham package is really a good one for the Marlins - they get a first baseman and a replacement for Realmuto. Diplan and Houser give them a couple of arms (one major-league ready), and Dubon is a good option at short for them (the Crew gets McNiel and Cecchini, a pair of high-average professional hitters from the Mets in the Anderson-Thames deal).

[StCroixCtyBrewer]

I don't feel that you get Realmuto without including Peralta and even making him a headliner probably doesn't get it done

[paul253]

I’d still like to see them make a run at Degrom or Syndergaard. Seeing starting pitchers going 2 innings during the playoffs because you don’t trust them to go through the lineup a second time makes me cringe a bit, as does using Josh Hader in the third inning. We have plenty of quantity in the rotation but not much quality. I’m really hesitant to move Hiura but man would it look good to have Degrom in the rotation.

[adambr2]

I’d still like to see them make a run at Degrom or Syndergaard. Seeing starting pitchers going 2 innings during the playoffs because you don’t trust them to go through the lineup a second time makes me cringe a bit, as does using Josh Hader in the third inning. We have plenty of quantity in the rotation but not much quality. I’m really hesitant to move Hiura but man would it look good to have Degrom in the rotation.

 

It's not so much that they don't trust them, it's a lot more that the analytics that this team uses has determined that this is the best approach to playoff games.

 

Very few pitchers don't get more susceptible the more times they see a hitter. Even DeGrom does. (.420, .523, .606, and .742 OPS against the 1st-4th times through the order).

 

Even as constructed our pitching was good enough to win a pennant. If we had hit in the NLCS, we'd be going to the World Series tomorrow. Next year we've got a whole wave of new options for the rotation and the presumable return of Jimmy Nelson. Plus, you may see guys like Brown, Diplan and Supak step into the late season roles that Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff had this year.

 

So I say hang onto the bats, particularly the right handed ones. That's what is going to take us to the next level. The pitching is already there.

[cvollbrecht]

Ray, Peralta, Aggy/Santana for Realmuto

 

Move Braun to 1B full time if you trade Aggy

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Realmuto

Moose (Schoop if Moose opts out)

Santana

Arcia

P

 

Lot to give up for Realmuto, but that's the best 9 we could realistically send out.

[clancyphile]

I’d still like to see them make a run at Degrom or Syndergaard. Seeing starting pitchers going 2 innings during the playoffs because you don’t trust them to go through the lineup a second time makes me cringe a bit, as does using Josh Hader in the third inning. We have plenty of quantity in the rotation but not much quality. I’m really hesitant to move Hiura but man would it look good to have Degrom in the rotation.

 

It's not so much that they don't trust them, it's a lot more that the analytics that this team uses has determined that this is the best approach to playoff games.

 

Very few pitchers don't get more susceptible the more times they see a hitter. Even DeGrom does. (.420, .523, .606, and .742 OPS against the 1st-4th times through the order).

 

Even as constructed our pitching was good enough to win a pennant. If we had hit in the NLCS, we'd be going to the World Series tomorrow. Next year we've got a whole wave of new options for the rotation and the presumable return of Jimmy Nelson. Plus, you may see guys like Brown, Diplan and Supak step into the late season roles that Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff had this year.

 

So I say hang onto the bats, particularly the right handed ones. That's what is going to take us to the next level. The pitching is already there.

 

The rotation was patchwork by the end of the regular season:

Nelson's recovery took longer than anticipated, and he remains a question mark going into 2019.

Davies only had 13 starts (you expect a starter to have 32 or 33 based on a five-man rotation) due to injury

Suter was gone for the season around July with a Tommy John

Chase Anderson missed time with injury

Wade Miley missed about half the season

Freddy Peralta was, for all intents and purposes, shut down on September 1

 

So, I look at the rotation, and I see four guys who missed a lot of time in 2018 or who will miss time in 2019 due to injury (Nelson, Davies, Suter, Miley), one who had some missed time, but also regressed in giving up homers (Anderson), and then there is Peralta, who was shut down, and thus off the board.

 

Do I see potential with adding Burnes and Woodruff? Yes. I'd like to add Kikuchi and bring back Wade Miley (he'll come cheaper than Gio) to solidify it. But those are moves that don't gut the system.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm not going to look up the targeted players, but I assume trades 1 and 2 are trading our spare parts for some caliber of prospects. Hard to call any of them spare parts as we are losing some solid players. Trade 3 is the key though. That's definitely a quantity over quality trade, but they would stand to potentially get 5 solid players for 2 years of 1 catcher. Aguilar is a stud now, Nottingham would likely open on the 25 man in 2019, and the other 3 could all make legit contributions in 2019...with diplan being the furthest out. A lot of value there.

 

Nobody like Peralta/Burnes/etc in this trade, but at this point the value on those guys is through the moon. Teams had their chances to get those guys, it didn't work out. I wouldn't trade Burnes for Realmuto straight up at this point, and I'm not sure I'd trade Hiura and Burnes for Degrom. The value on those young pitchers is crazy high, better to keep the young guys and use payroll dollars to supplement the roster elsewhere.

[clancyphile]

I'm not going to look up the targeted players, but I assume trades 1 and 2 are trading our spare parts for some caliber of prospects. Hard to call any of them spare parts as we are losing some solid players. Trade 3 is the key though. That's definitely a quantity over quality trade, but they would stand to potentially get 5 solid players for 2 years of 1 catcher. Aguilar is a stud now, Nottingham would likely open on the 25 man in 2019, and the other 3 could all make legit contributions in 2019...with diplan being the furthest out. A lot of value there.

 

Nobody like Peralta/Burnes/etc in this trade, but at this point the value on those guys is through the moon. Teams had their chances to get those guys, it didn't work out. I wouldn't trade Burnes for Realmuto straight up at this point, and I'm not sure I'd trade Hiura and Burnes for Degrom. The value on those young pitchers is crazy high, better to keep the young guys and use payroll dollars to supplement the roster elsewhere.

 

Jeff McNeil becomes the Brewers' backup 2B. In 2018 he posted a .328/.381/.471 line - a left-handed Cirillo with more speed than pop.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcneije01.shtml

 

Gavin Cecchini has seen two cups of coffee, but is a solid SS/2B with a track record of hitting for average in the minors:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cecchi001gav

 

Mazeika is a catcher, good OBP skills, and was high-average hitter until this year:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mazeik000pat

 

Bobby Wahl is a Knebel-esque pitcher, two cups of coffee with the A's and Mets:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=wahl--001rob

 

Bryant Perez was in the DSL in 2018:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=perez-000bry

 

Erik Cha, a rookie-league left-handed reliever:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cha---000eri

 

Ruben Santana is a switch-hitting IF prospect:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=santan003rub

[Lathund]

With 6 full seasons of team control remaining for McNeil, coming off a 140 OPS+ debut season, I really can't see why the Mets would ever want to give that up for Chase Anderson and Eric Thames. Chase is a useful starter for someone, but the Mets might be the last team in the league who would give up significant assets for a starter. They're pretty well stocked as is.

[LouisEly]

Kikuchi, Realmuto, and Miley are affordable thanks to the dealing of Schoop, Thames, and Anderson, while letting Soria walk. That's $32.5 million, give or take.

Not quite. Schoop and Soria were acquired at the deadline and thus the Brewers only had to pay a fraction of their salary in 2018. The Brewers could afford them because they were only paying 1/3rd of their salary - they only cost the Brewers ~$6M in 2018, not $17.5M. It's only about $18.5M off the books ($6M for Schoop/Soria, $12.5M for Anderson/Thames).

 

Kikuchi, who you generously think will only cost the Brewers $10M but we'll go with that, Realmuto (estimate $6M in arby), and Miley (assuming same deal as Chacin, $8M), plus Moustakas ($15M) will cost at least $39M, and increase of $21M in the payroll. Then add in the arby increases for Shaw, etc.

 

And if you want to jettison Nelson... I'm glad you're not the GM.

[markedman5]

Nelson has 2 minor league options remaining if needed

[clancyphile]

Nelson has 2 minor league options remaining if needed

 

I'd consider using one - just to get him pitching regularly. The Crew has the depth that Nelson can get back into form at AAA. I think Davies still has one as well. Again, same principle, depending on how Spring Training goes.

[LincolnDD]

Trade One

Mets get:

RHP Chase Anderson

OF/1B Eric Thames

 

Brewers get:

IF Jeff McNeil

SS/2B Gavin Cecchini

C Patrick Mazeika

RHP Bobby Wahl

 

Why on earth would the Mets do that? McNeil is their starting second baseman. And they don't need a first baseman. Makes zero sense for New York.

[MNBrew]

I'm not opposed to the first two trades but I don't agree on Realmuto's worth or the cost to our system's depth you're paying to get him.

 

Even if Aguilar's production is in proportion to his 2017 vs. his 2018, I think he's well worth keeping, so shipping him out along with several other potential future regulars (Nottingham & Dubon, for instance) is a foolish underestimation of his worth to the Brewers.

[clancyphile]

I'm not opposed to the first two trades but I don't agree on Realmuto's worth or the cost to our system's depth you're paying to get him.

 

Even if Aguilar's production is in proportion to his 2017 vs. his 2018, I think he's well worth keeping, so shipping him out along with several other potential future regulars (Nottingham & Dubon, for instance) is a foolish underestimation of his worth to the Brewers.

 

In some ways, the first two trades make the third more palatable.

 

Nottingham and Dubon are for all intents and purposes replaced by Mazeika and McNeil. Houser is replaced by Wahl, while Diplan is replaced by the younger version of himself in Perez. Cecchini, Santana, and Cha are added to the mix.

 

Nottingham's had some offensive struggles, while Mazeika is a high-contact hitter.

 

As for why the Mets would do the first trade: One or both of DeGrom and Syndergaard could be dealt by the Mets this off-season. They'd want some sort of solid starter with control to replace those two.

[JosephC]

I think both Thames and Anderson would be really, really tough sells this off-season. OPS, FIP....those are one thing. But when healthy players are left entirely off post-season rosters, I would think that would speaks volumes to the rest of the league regarding a player's value. And no, I don't think it is a "well the Brewers just had that much depth" situation. Good major league players should be on playoff rosters, that fact that these guys were left off the playoff roster (a decision that pretty much everyone on this board, myself included, probably agrees with) has to be a major red flag if you are trading for a player.

 

Anderson is more realistic. His salary isn't ridiculous for a big market team that is looking for a 5th starter, so there could be some interest from a large market team that is pretty solid in the front of the rotation and is looking for a marginal veteran with experience to fill out the back end. And even so, the Brewers probably only net a couple of low level lottery tickets in return.

 

Thames is a much tougher sell IMO. I only see him getting moved for another high-priced veteran that another team wants to move. Maybe someone like Addison Reed? Now before everyone thinks that would be crazy and lop-sided for Milwaukee, consider that Reed (A) has lost 2 MPH off his fastball from 2016 to 2018 (B) had a FIP > 5 last year which is terrible © is scheduled to make 8.5 million next year which is 1.5 million more than Thames 2019 salary plus his 2020 buyout. Twins need a 1B if Mauer doesn't return and might be pretty happy to get Reed's money off the books considering how bad he was last year. I can't see Thames as really commanding more than that in a trade.

[LincolnDD]

As for why the Mets would do the first trade: One or both of DeGrom and Syndergaard could be dealt by the Mets this off-season. They'd want some sort of solid starter with control to replace those two.

 

You're offering expensive spare parts to the Mets for their young, inexpensive, controllable starting second baseman. That's like the Mets offering Jason Vargas and Todd Frazier for Corbin Burnes.

 

IF they trade any starters, there are plenty of ways to go get replacements without having to surrender nearly as much as you suggest. And they'd have no use at all for Thames.