Hader (as a starter, or not)

[Boomer5]

Zero reason to make him a starter. We have plenty of young starting pitching options and Hader as a relieve is one of the top weapons in the game.

 

I’m surprised it’s even being considered.

[adambr2]

Zero reason to make him a starter. We have plenty of young starting pitching options and Hader as a relieve is one of the top weapons in the game.

 

I’m surprised it’s even being considered.

 

It's not. They have already said he'll enter 2019 in the same role.

[markedman5]

I'm awaiting the Braun to 3rd base thread .......haven't had one of those for a few months.....

[TURBO]

I'm awaiting the Braun to 3rd base thread .......haven't had one of those for a few months.....

 

As far as I can tell, there is only one poster on this entire site who thinks that is a good idea...

[3and2Fastball]

I could see Hader as an occasional "opener", pitching the first 2-3 innings vs a lefty heavy opponent, especially if we continue to build high level bullpen depth like I think we will. But as a traditional "starter"? No. I think the Brewers are going to move further away from the concept of starting pitchers anyways...

[NievesNoNO]

I'm awaiting the Braun to 3rd base thread .......haven't had one of those for a few months.....

 

Braun has proven he can't play 3rd. Hader, has not proven he can't start.

[MrTPlush]

I could see Hader as an occasional "opener", pitching the first 2-3 innings vs a lefty heavy opponent, especially if we continue to build high level bullpen depth like I think we will. But as a traditional "starter"? No. I think the Brewers are going to move further away from the concept of starting pitchers anyways...

 

I don’t see it, in the regular season. The Brewers would not dare do this with how reluctant they are to use him as is. He is lucky to get into an occasional tie game when it is late in the game. To use him to start a game for 2 innings? Yah, there just is no way...and I wouldn’t do it either.

 

The concept is intriguing, but not sure I buy how effective it would be over the long 162 game schedule.

[brewcrewdue80]

Did someone just throw a link to Chris Sale's splits to refute the idea that the vast majority of MLB starting pitchers have a significant dropoff their 2nd and 3rd time through the order? No one ever said pitchers like that don't exist. There just so rare and coveted that a small market team doesn't have much chance of one being around very long. If you're lucky they become that dominant by your 3rd year of control. Then you have 3 more years to enjoy them before they're off to greener pastures. And that window you have them is only if they stay healthy. Rather than banking on getting a true unicorn of a pitcher like that, get ACE-like numbers from your entire staff by limiting them to 1-2 trips through.

 

This whole shift in usage is quite the paradox. The dominance these guys are showing via limited exposure has many of you thinking they'd keep right on mowing down batters if given 3 more innings. It doesn't work that way for so, so many reasons.

 

Btw, McCalvy has now twice hinted very recently that tandems are likely to be utilized in 2019, just as I predicted. Now why would they not push Hader, Burnes, Woodruff, or Peralta to be possibly the next Sale, Clemens, Verlander, or Martinez? For one, they're not going to use pitchers that way going forward. Two, getting away from 35 starts and 200 innings will better protect their arms. And three, none are ready with their secondary stuff to be those guys and may never be. Peralta is the one of those 4 who actually has had success 3 times through. But why pursue the unicorn when you literally can replace them with just about any MLB pitcher for one time through and get better results than a 3rd time through with your initial out getter. I'll pull this out one more time. Every pitcher on the Brewers playoff roster had better stats their 1st time through a lineup than Ben Sheets career 3rd time through. That's the best pitcher the Brewers have developed in the last 20 years and you were still better off bringing in a fresh arm rather than giving batters a 3rd look at him.

 

Its a moot point at this moment with the declare Hader stays in bullpen in 19. It was mself that put up Chris Sale stats. Similar style/profile, has worked incredible for him. Did I say Hader will continue to mow down batters a 2nd/3rd time through? Hader's not perfect as a Reliever he didnt finish with a 0ERA. He doesnt have to mow down bats. Just rack up 0s and the occasional 1/2run innings. Im just advocating that hes tried as SP. Say he succeeds, going 6-8innings with a below 3ERA? Is it foolish to use him that way just because his 3rd time through the order "supposedly" would be worse than another RP picking up that time through? There are more ways to get outs than just via a strikeout. The fact that he Ks batters at such a high rate, giving up a higher OPS doesn't mean he'll give up runs. He can strand runners on base. Its a team game, he shouldnt have to always allow 3ERs or less every time he throws 6IP. The offense needs to score it's share of runs, and clearly have for SPs who can have have an ERA above 4, yet win 16 or 17 games that season.

Its a 25man roster, we lost in the NLCS due to offense not producing. How many pitchers do you need to carry to cover all these 2IP stints vs a starter giving nearly 200IP? How often are you using Hader effectively two times a week? Maybe 3? What when he has a poor outing? Doesnt go 2IP? It's odd that Ace type pitchers, it used to be get to them in the 1st inning, otherwise they find their groove suddenly go 6/7innings of shutout pitching. But then this style is addressing the 3rd time seen in an order when SPs should be giving up more runs....I gtg cant finish this rant be back another time.

[JohnBriggs12]

I’d only be open to Hader being a starter if he can add a third pitch to his arsenal.

 

He does have a changeup but he very rarely brings it out as a reliever. You really have to watch close, because it usually gets by the guys in the booth and he'll throw it like no more than once every 4 or 5 appearances. It's not a bad pitch either, but one time through the order there's no reason to bring it out.

[KeithStone53151]

I’d only be open to Hader being a starter if he can add a third pitch to his arsenal.

 

He does have a changeup but he very rarely brings it out as a reliever. You really have to watch close, because it usually gets by the guys in the booth and he'll throw it like no more than once every 4 or 5 appearances. It's not a bad pitch either, but one time through the order there's no reason to bring it out.

 

It was pretty clear to me that Hader focused last offseason on his slider. The increased usage and effectiveness of that pitch in 2018 makes that pretty obvious in my opinion. I would like to think he'll do the same this offseason with his changeup. That said, he hasn't really shown great stamina and that could hold him back from being a SP. I would like to see them try him in the rotation, but with the other young guys we have coming through I can also understand keeping him in his current relief role.

[topper09er]

Everyone understands that if Hader pitched 7 straight inning and faced guys 3 or 4 times he would not be as effective. No one thinks that if Hader has to face guys a 4th time his ERA would not increase. The point of debate is how to get the most value out of Hader.

 

Hader pitched 80 inning and put up 2.7 fWAR and 2.2 bWAR. In both measures that is basically the same value as Chacin.

 

So, how bad is only having 2 pitches, is Hader going to become Manny Parra if hitter face him too often? Seems to me that are not maximizing Hader's talents and he should be pitching more innings, maybe not starting, but still I think his usage has room for improvement.

 

1 thing I would like to see if trying to use him more as a "LOOGY" in a big spot. I get he can pitch multiple innings but the times with late inning, bases loaded, 2 outs type situations I think we should have leaned on him a little more, even if he pitched 2 innings the day before. He can warm and throw 4 pitches to get us out of a big jam.

[clancyphile]

Everyone understands that if Hader pitched 7 straight inning and faced guys 3 or 4 times he would not be as effective. No one thinks that if Hader has to face guys a 4th time his ERA would not increase. The point of debate is how to get the most value out of Hader.

 

Hader pitched 80 inning and put up 2.7 fWAR and 2.2 bWAR. In both measures that is basically the same value as Chacin.

 

So, how bad is only having 2 pitches, is Hader going to become Manny Parra if hitter face him too often? Seems to me that are not maximizing Hader's talents and he should be pitching more innings, maybe not starting, but still I think his usage has room for improvement.

 

1 thing I would like to see if trying to use him more as a "LOOGY" in a big spot. I get he can pitch multiple innings but the times with late inning, bases loaded, 2 outs type situations I think we should have leaned on him a little more, even if he pitched 2 innings the day before. He can warm and throw 4 pitches to get us out of a big jam.

 

Hader's use in 2018 was nearly perfect, IMO.

 

That said, I'd save the back-to-back stuff for playoffs. Wouldn't hurt to maybe try using him as the initial out-getter once or twice. The Crew would go to bat knowing Hader could shut the other team down for the first couple of innings and get a lead.

[tmwiese55]

I think with the current roster and SP depth (assuming all guys are back and Burnes/Woodruff end up more like starters) that it is best for the team to use Hader similar to last year. Perhaps the year after if you lose a couple guys like Davies, Anderson or whoever then maybe it would be better to move him into a starter type role. So I'm on board with it from a team perspective. Any comments I made on the other side were more if his agent and himself desire trying to start to maximize future payday. Sounds like that's not a concern right now that we know of though, so proceed as is and look at again the year after. hopefully he continues working on the change up in the meantime.

 

My nitpick of the strategy if i had one though is that when he pitches 2-3 innings he's seemingly off limits for at least 2 days, sometimes 3. Well, then might as well just have him start and pitch 5-7 innings and be off 4 days. But again, the current roster and our yank SPs early strategy requires a multi inning guy or two like him so he's crucial for wins in this role.

[KeithStone53151]

Everyone understands that if Hader[insert any pitcher in the league] pitched 7 straight inning and faced guys 3 or 4 times he would not be as effective.

 

Fixed

[monty57]

I think Hader's maximum value would be for him to become an ace starting pitcher, and I think that he could. That said, I do not see any way the Brewers will ever move him out of the bullpen. He has the potential to be Randy Johnson, but we will max out his potential at Andrew Miller.

 

With that in mind, I now turn my attention to Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, and any future guys who have good potential as a starting pitcher. We can live with limiting the potential of one potential ace, but we need to put some of these guys into the rotation and stick with them through the ups-and-downs. I still like the thought of giving young guys a shot in the rotation and moving them to the pen only if they fail as starters far more than the thought of paying for "good enough" older starting pitchers and putting our good, young arms in the pen.

 

I hope that this year was an anomaly due to the situation, and it doesn't become the norm to say "we think he's a starter, but we need them in the pen for the playoff run," only to be followed up by "he's too valuable in his current role to take him out of it." We need some of these young guys to fill out our rotation for the foreseeable future, as we can't afford to pay the cost (in dollars and/or prospects) for starting pitching over the long-run through free agency and trades.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think Hader's maximum value would be for him to become an ace starting pitcher, and I think that he could. That said, I do not see any way the Brewers will ever move him out of the bullpen. He has the potential to be Randy Johnson, but we will max out his potential at Andrew Miller.

 

With that in mind, I now turn my attention to Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, and any future guys who have good potential as a starting pitcher. We can live with limiting the potential of one potential ace, but we need to put some of these guys into the rotation and stick with them through the ups-and-downs. I still like the thought of giving young guys a shot in the rotation and moving them to the pen only if they fail as starters far more than the thought of paying for "good enough" older starting pitchers and putting our good, young arms in the pen.

 

I hope that this year was an anomaly due to the situation, and it doesn't become the norm to say "we think he's a starter, but we need them in the pen for the playoff run," only to be followed up by "he's too valuable in his current role to take him out of it." We need some of these young guys to fill out our rotation for the foreseeable future, as we can't afford to pay the cost (in dollars and/or prospects) for starting pitching over the long-run through free agency and trades.

 

I agree with every word of this. Right down to the Andrew Miller comparison. The only difference is that Andrew Miller was at least given the opportunity to fail as a starter (which he did) before becoming a dominant reliever. If the Brewers never give Hader that opportunity, it is simply a waste in my opinion.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

But isn't there something to be said of Hader's value as a reliever? The obvious benefit there is that you don't start him every 5 days and use his outing on a day you win 8-1. I get that is a bit of a catch 22, but you don't get to be as selective with his innings.

 

I don't doubt that Hader can be a starting pitcher, but I am not convinced that he isn't more valuable in the bullpen.

[NievesNoNO]

But isn't there something to be said of Hader's value as a reliever? The obvious benefit there is that you don't start him every 5 days and use his outing on a day you win 8-1. I get that is a bit of a catch 22, but you don't get to be as selective with his innings.

 

I don't doubt that Hader can be a starting pitcher, but I am not convinced that he isn't more valuable in the bullpen.

 

I think those of us that think he should get the chance to start aren't sure either but you'll never know if you don't give him a chance. If he's just an average starter, then sure he's likely more valuable in the pen. I just don't like the "What If", in the back of my mind. What If: he's the next Jacob DeGrom. You'd have a hard time convincing me that Jacob DeGrom would be more valuable from the bullpen over the course of the regular season.

 

I also don't really buy into the way the Brewers organized their pitching in the last month as being the new norm or a trend that will be sustainable for the entirety of the regular season. Plus starting pitching will still win games; I still think we need some TOR arms.

[monty57]

But isn't there something to be said of Hader's value as a reliever? The obvious benefit there is that you don't start him every 5 days and use his outing on a day you win 8-1. I get that is a bit of a catch 22, but you don't get to be as selective with his innings.

 

I don't doubt that Hader can be a starting pitcher, but I am not convinced that he isn't more valuable in the bullpen.

 

I think those of us that think he should get the chance to start aren't sure either but you'll never know if you don't give him a chance. If he's just an average starter, then sure he's likely more valuable in the pen. I just don't like the "What If", in the back of my mind. What If: he's the next Jacob DeGrom. You'd have a hard time convincing me that Jacob DeGrom would be more valuable from the bullpen over the course of the regular season.

 

I also don't really buy into the way the Brewers organized their pitching in the last month as being the new norm or a trend that will be sustainable for the entirety of the regular season. Plus starting pitching will still win games; I still think we need some TOR arms.

 

Agree. I believe that the Dodgers and Red Sox are fairly "stats driven," and I don't see them taking Buehler or Sale out of the rotation for 2019 to put them into the "Hader role" in the pen. The same can be said of every other team in baseball who has a good, top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. That is arguably the most valuable commodity in baseball.

[tmwiese55]

But isn't there something to be said of Hader's value as a reliever? The obvious benefit there is that you don't start him every 5 days and use his outing on a day you win 8-1. I get that is a bit of a catch 22, but you don't get to be as selective with his innings.

 

I don't doubt that Hader can be a starting pitcher, but I am not convinced that he isn't more valuable in the bullpen.

 

I think those of us that think he should get the chance to start aren't sure either but you'll never know if you don't give him a chance. If he's just an average starter, then sure he's likely more valuable in the pen. I just don't like the "What If", in the back of my mind. What If: he's the next Jacob DeGrom. You'd have a hard time convincing me that Jacob DeGrom would be more valuable from the bullpen over the course of the regular season.

 

I also don't really buy into the way the Brewers organized their pitching in the last month as being the new norm or a trend that will be sustainable for the entirety of the regular season. Plus starting pitching will still win games; I still think we need some TOR arms.

 

Right, think of it this way. Is Chris Sale or prime Andrew Miller/current Hader more valuable? Clearly Sale. Miller/Hader or a mid level starting pitcher who's still good like IDK James Shields from a few years ago or Chris Archer? Well, then probably Miller.

[pacopete4]

Outs are the most important thing in baseball. Starters get more outs over the course of a season. If he can start and do it well, he should. That being said, he was so electric this season and with all of the other young arms itching to get in that rotation, I understand why they are doing what they are doing.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

But isn't there something to be said of Hader's value as a reliever? The obvious benefit there is that you don't start him every 5 days and use his outing on a day you win 8-1. I get that is a bit of a catch 22, but you don't get to be as selective with his innings.

 

I don't doubt that Hader can be a starting pitcher, but I am not convinced that he isn't more valuable in the bullpen.

 

I think those of us that think he should get the chance to start aren't sure either but you'll never know if you don't give him a chance. If he's just an average starter, then sure he's likely more valuable in the pen. I just don't like the "What If", in the back of my mind. What If: he's the next Jacob DeGrom. You'd have a hard time convincing me that Jacob DeGrom would be more valuable from the bullpen over the course of the regular season.

 

I also don't really buy into the way the Brewers organized their pitching in the last month as being the new norm or a trend that will be sustainable for the entirety of the regular season. Plus starting pitching will still win games; I still think we need some TOR arms.

 

Right, think of it this way. Is Chris Sale or prime Andrew Miller/current Hader more valuable? Clearly Sale. Miller/Hader or a mid level starting pitcher who's still good like IDK James Shields from a few years ago or Chris Archer? Well, then probably Miller.

 

Perhaps they have some sort of advanced metric that indicates that Hader wouldn't be effective as a starting pitcher, but I sure would like to see it tried before writing it off completely. There are plenty of failed starters that are effective relievers. In fact, I'd venture to say that most relievers come from a starting background. And there is nothing keeping the team from moving Hader back into a relief role should starting not work out as effectively as they had hoped. But to simply give up on the idea of him starting simply because he is a great reliever is short-sighted, in my opinion. I mean Wily Peralta .. WILY PERALTA ... is now an effective closer. Good starters are tougher to find than good relievers, so they have to try starting him at some point.

[istanbultaye]

I think it's a little too soon to call Wily's switch to a bullpen role a complete success. Sure he did ok in terms of ERA/Ks in his 30 odd innings, but his walk rate was actually even worse... so doesn't really seem very sustainable. He at least did enough that the Royals can give him another shot next year.

[reillymcshane]

Wily Peralta walked 23 guys in 35 innings. He had a 1.485 WHIP. His 3.67 ERA was fine, but his FIP was 4.73. And we are talking about 34 innings, so the sample is pretty small.

 

I'm not saying he can't be an effective reliever - just that he has a lot more to do to be considered good.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Wily Peralta walked 23 guys in 35 innings. He had a 1.485 WHIP. His 3.67 ERA was fine, but his FIP was 4.73. And we are talking about 34 innings, so the sample is pretty small.

 

I'm not saying he can't be an effective reliever - just that he has a lot more to do to be considered good.

 

I think it would be safe to say that he looked far better as a reliever, though, than he did at any point in his last year in the Brewers' rotation.