Hader (as a starter, or not)

[adambr2]

Don't know why he would say he likes coming in games late if he doesn't actually mean it. If he wanted to start but wanted to be a team player too he could easily just say "I'm on board with whatever is best for the team" and no one would give it a second thought.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I think the idea that Hader would struggle after 3IPs is absurd. Harping on his FB ratio is irrelevant to me when it fans numerous batters. Hes not seeing batters 2 and 3 times through. But he clearly has a good secondary pitch when he threw it. That pitch would be thrown more If he were starting and keeping batters guessing a 2nd and 3rd time throughthe order. How'd we do versus Kershaw? He certainly isnt bringing his FB at 94+ like I remember. That slurveball is all it takes to keep hitters off balance. Brewers bats got to see that pitch from Hill as well, it didnt help them hit that pitch. Theres too much respect on hitters here, when this game is at a low for hits to high strikeouts since before I was born or ever. I dunno. What was Hader at? 22pitches? For 3innings? Taking his ability to starting vs the ability of Brent Suter? You have to at least give it a shot. Aroldis Chapman got one, then he became the bullpen great. He's young and fireballing today. He has a long time to be a relief Ace. Starter he doesnt.

 

Largely due to the specialization and changed use of pitchers. You actually just showed how well limited repeat looks is working.

[obobo55new]

26 weeks in the season. If he pitches twice a week, going 2+ each for an avg of 5 innings, that is 130 innings pitched. A normal starter only gets 36 starts. With how Counsell handles starters, they rarely get more than 5 innings. That translates to 180 innings if you never miss one or have a short outing. Considering those 2 outings are generally high leverage and crucial to wins (not pitching in blowouts), losing those innings don't hurt much.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

The assumption that a pitcher who exits a game after a dominant 3 inning stint would have continued to mow down batters will be the hardest notion to shed. The stats show the dropoff for most pitchers but plenty of people don't bother to look at the numbers.

[Oxy]

Could you pair up Hader with Freddy Peralta and get 7 innings out of them every 4 days?

[adambr2]

Could you pair up Hader with Freddy Peralta and get 7 innings out of them every 4 days?

 

Probably, but I think you're going to lose a lot of value limiting Hader especially to that limited of a role.

[tmwiese55]

Don't know why he would say he likes coming in games late if he doesn't actually mean it. If he wanted to start but wanted to be a team player too he could easily just say "I'm on board with whatever is best for the team" and no one would give it a second thought.

 

I'm sure he does like it, and I'm sure he'd like starting too. those quotes were just saying the right thing, I want to help the team however they see fit. Especially as a young generally unproven player. That's what he should say publicly.

 

Behind the scenes after he's now established himself comes the real talk with the agent who sees Chris Sale with a 200 mil contract coming and Andrew Miller with a 4/36 and Chapman 5/86. Don't get me wrong, that's still a lot of money but it's logical to think his agent would advise that he should try to start at some point, if it doesn't work go back to this role.

[FVBrewerFan]

We're making the mistake of thinking of starters the traditional way. What we could very well see is a continued expansion of the "out getters" approach.

 

"Start" Chacin, Anderson, Davies, maybe Gio..Nelson...who knows. Then in the "pen" Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Guerra. All guys capable of pitching multiple innings. If the starter has a lead after 4-5 innings, you can go to Hader/Burnes and win that game. Still have Knebel/ Jeffress to "close." If you're losing, go to Guerra. In theory, Hader, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta would get almost as many innings as they would being a starter, but used in games they're more likely to win.

 

I don't know if Stearns will take it that far, but I assure you they are looking at how to maximize these very talented young arms. They all need work with their off-speed pitches. Very often their curve or change is little more than a "get me over" pitch. It's all a work in progress. They all have 4-5 years of control left, so there's time to develop them into more traditional starters. Until then, we'll see what Stearns comes up with in his pitching lab.

[long ball]

I could see them doing something creative with the pitching staff, but over the course of the season it will have to be somewhat structured like what the Rays did with the opener where they knew who was the opener and who was the bulk guy.

 

Traditional starters: Chacin and Davies. They go every 5th day.

 

Piggyback/extended out-getters: Woodruff, Guerra, Burnes, Anderson, Nelson, Peralta. Pitch 1-2x through the order, but rarely come in for single innings. Available on 2-3 days rest depending on the player.

 

Short relievers: Knebel, JJ, Hader, Williams/Barnes/Albers/Houser/Depth piece.

 

The roles can be flexible and change as the season goes on and players develop. I don't know if the Brewers will get this creative, but with the depth of options they have before making any off season moves they can afford to be creative. Take those middle to back end rotation prospects and elevate their skills by only asking them to get 6-12 outs.

[danzig6767]

I have been a proponent of making Hader a starter but the emergence of Woodruff, Burnes, and Peralta has changed my mind. I had thought Hader was our only chance of developing our own ace but these guys have more upside than I gave them credit for at mid season. 2 months ago I thought we were in a 2-3 year window and needed to trade for a deGrom this offseason to maximize our chances. Not anymore, the future is very bright for this pitching staff, just need to fix that offense which is a little easier.

 

I agree that with other young starters ready to join the rotation, i'm fine with Hader staying in the pen.

 

Plus, today's baseball is just a different game from the past. Bullpens are as important or close to as important as a rotation is. Look at the Brewers this year. They won 96 games and would be in the World Series if they simply scored more than one run in a 13 inning game, even with a rotation where Chacin was their best starter.

 

Next year one of or both of Burnes/Woodruff will be added to the rotation, Peralta could be, and hopefully Nelson is good again. Remove Hader though from the pen and there is a chance that the bullpen goes from a huge strength to a question mark.

[markedman5]

Stearns said today he is staying in the pen.

 

End of story

[JohnBriggs12]

Hader has a changeup. He used it very sparingly not because it's that bad a pitch, but because he didn't need it one time through an order. But he did use it a few times.

[OnaBadger58]

A little off topic, but I wonder how his arbitration process will go (won't have to worry until '21 I think). With the way the Brewers changed the game this year, I wonder if he will be paid like a traditional set up pitcher or if there will be more of a hybrid category that will allow him to get more money. Or maybe the Brewers should just get him signed for a couple years past arbitration and get hat over with.

[brewcrewdue80]

The assumption that a pitcher who exits a game after a dominant 3 inning stint would have continued to mow down batters will be the hardest notion to shed. The stats show the dropoff for most pitchers but plenty of people don't bother to look at the numbers.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=salech01&year=Career&t=p/

 

Look for his stats on repeat through the order. Ops is always below .700. Lefty, high K rate. Mentioned just above on a 200million contract vs the 80-something mil given to Chapman. Lumping the stats for SPs and how the times faced/repeats, worsen is ignoring attempts of having a Chris Sale that doesnt follow that trend. The state of SPs not going deeper and Counsell's use on SPs not to see 180IP+ is also wrong as Chacin was 192? I believe this season. we celebrated the starts Chacin/Miley gave us during the Playoffs prior to game 7, being 5IP. 0ERs and such.

Why do we have to argue Hader from doing that seeing batters a 2nd/3rd time all because the stats show a decline by pitchers when doing so? Chacin just gave 192IP below 3.5ERA with Slider/FB as his go to pitches. Let Hader show himself if he's just another 1 time through the order stud and dud #s 2&3, or the next Chris Sale.

[danzig6767]

A little off topic, but I wonder how his arbitration process will go (won't have to worry until '21 I think). With the way the Brewers changed the game this year, I wonder if he will be paid like a traditional set up pitcher or if there will be more of a hybrid category that will allow him to get more money. Or maybe the Brewers should just get him signed for a couple years past arbitration and get hat over with.

I don't see any way the Brewers could get away with low balling Hadar in arbitration by calling him just a traditional set up pitcher.

 

That said, as the game is changing in regards to how bullpen arms are being used, it can't only be closers with high save totals getting big money in arbitration, so some sort of model will have to be developed for guys like Hadar and other very good relievers who aren't just used as a closer with save numbers to compare to other closers.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Did someone just throw a link to Chris Sale's splits to refute the idea that the vast majority of MLB starting pitchers have a significant dropoff their 2nd and 3rd time through the order? No one ever said pitchers like that don't exist. There just so rare and coveted that a small market team doesn't have much chance of one being around very long. If you're lucky they become that dominant by your 3rd year of control. Then you have 3 more years to enjoy them before they're off to greener pastures. And that window you have them is only if they stay healthy. Rather than banking on getting a true unicorn of a pitcher like that, get ACE-like numbers from your entire staff by limiting them to 1-2 trips through.

 

This whole shift in usage is quite the paradox. The dominance these guys are showing via limited exposure has many of you thinking they'd keep right on mowing down batters if given 3 more innings. It doesn't work that way for so, so many reasons.

 

Btw, McCalvy has now twice hinted very recently that tandems are likely to be utilized in 2019, just as I predicted. Now why would they not push Hader, Burnes, Woodruff, or Peralta to be possibly the next Sale, Clemens, Verlander, or Martinez? For one, they're not going to use pitchers that way going forward. Two, getting away from 35 starts and 200 innings will better protect their arms. And three, none are ready with their secondary stuff to be those guys and may never be. Peralta is the one of those 4 who actually has had success 3 times through. But why pursue the unicorn when you literally can replace them with just about any MLB pitcher for one time through and get better results than a 3rd time through with your initial out getter. I'll pull this out one more time. Every pitcher on the Brewers playoff roster had better stats their 1st time through a lineup than Ben Sheets career 3rd time through. That's the best pitcher the Brewers have developed in the last 20 years and you were still better off bringing in a fresh arm rather than giving batters a 3rd look at him.

[TURBO]

Brewers GM David Stearns confirmed Tuesday that Josh Hader will remain in the bullpen in 2019.

 

Hader worked as a starter in the minors, but he has absolutely flourished in a relief role at the major league level, posting a 2.30 ERA, 0.876 WHIP, and 211 strikeouts across his first 129 innings with the Brewers. This announcement by Stearns comes as no surprise.

 

 

Source: Adam McCalvy on Twitter

Oct 23 - 4:02 PM

[BrewFan130]

I’d only be open to Hader being a starter if he can add a third pitch to his arsenal.

[Bob Skube Snacks]

I think a better question is whether Hader ought to be a six-out closer? He’s dabbled in a role sort of like that, but other than brief periods, he’s never been the designated closer with Knebel in 2017 and Jeffress in 2018 assuming the closer roles.

[long ball]

I think a better question is whether Hader ought to be a six-out closer? He’s dabbled in a role sort of like that, but other than brief periods, he’s never been the designated closer with Knebel in 2017 and Jeffress in 2018 assuming the closer roles.

 

Don't be a slave to the save. Counsell should continue to use Hader when it's most advantageous for the Brewers. Sometimes that will mean 1 inning. Sometimes that will be 2-3 innings. Sometimes the 5th inning. Sometimes the 9th.

 

Honestly, it would be great if they did the same thing with Knebel and JJ next season even though I imagine one of those two will settle into the traditional "closer role" at some point during the regular season.

[Bob Skube Snacks]

Has nothing to do with saves. I think, as we found out a few times in the postseason, that the highest leverage moment is the 8th and 9th.

[long ball]

Has nothing to do with saves. I think, as we found out a few times in the postseason, that the highest leverage moment is the 8th and 9th.

 

Would you rather have Hader come in for the 7th inning with a one run lead to face Votto, Gennett, and Suarez or have him come in for the 9th and face a PH, Hamilton, and Peraza?

 

Game situations should dictate how a reliever is used, not "just" because it's the 8th or 8th inning.

 

As you saw, sometimes Hader will pitch the 9th inning. Like game 163 vs the Cubs.

[Bob Skube Snacks]

Has nothing to do with saves. I think, as we found out a few times in the postseason, that the highest leverage moment is the 8th and 9th.

 

Would you rather have Hader come in for the 7th inning with a one run lead to face Votto, Gennett, and Suarez or have him come in for the 9th and face a PH, Hamilton, and Peraza?

 

Game situations should dictate how a reliever is used, not "just" because it's the 8th or 8th inning.

 

As you saw, sometimes Hader will pitch the 9th inning. Like game 163 vs the Cubs.

 

I understand the argument, I just don’t entirely agree with it.

 

See NLDS Game 1 for an example. Hader kills off the last part of the 7th and 8th. Great, but then Jeffress allows two leadoff singles in the 9th and has to face the meat of the Rockies order anyway when he’s clearly not on his game. The Brewers were very fortunate to escape the 9th with just a tie game to contend with.

 

(And I know Jeffress was very good during the regular season, but I don’t think anyone would argue he’s better than Hader.)

 

I’d rather take the risk in the 7th, when you still have time to theoretically make up for any bullpen problems with your own lineup, than in the 9th, when you’ve burned your most dominant reliever and (maybe) have one turn at-bat to deal with it.

 

I want my most dominant reliever to kill the game when the game is there to be killed, not in a theoretic sense earlier in the game.

 

The Dodgers use Kenley Jansen in that traditional sense and it works just fine for them. It can work fine for us too with the relief corps we have.

[tmwiese55]

Hader's multi inning ability makes it different though as you don't always know how long he'll be able to go. So if you bring him in planning for 2-3 innings to 'close' at the end. but then the pitch count gets high and you've already used the others (Knebel, Jeffress) then you're left with who knows what to finish it. So if you keep holding him to pitch 1 inning or maybe the last out or two of the 8th if lefties then you'll end up lowering his innings. Also, his multi inning usage makes him unavailable for days at a time, thus creating more variables. Personally I like what they did to start the year when Knebel was down, just go with who ever is fresh and based on matchups. Forget that Save is even a stat.

 

Also, his left handedness is a factor. you want to use him when the pile of lefties are up in a lineup to maximize his value, and you can't predict when that will be in a game. Also, if you bring him in earlier in the game and the other team then yanks all their lefties it provides Knebel/Jeffress an advantage later in that the lefties are out.

[GAME05]

As far as money goes for Hader after his arbitration years (granted it's a while yet), I'd think he'd be in a better position to make the most money remaining as the game's elite bullpen guy than trying to be a starter, especially as the bullpen has taken on more importance around the league.