David Stearns must do's for the offseason

[82brewcrew82]

I think the concept of "pitching" is still evolving for this team. It evolved throughout the season and morphed into something different at the end of the season than it was at the beginning. Anyone who thinks they know how this will work next season is guessing. A couple things keep going through my head. How much did handedness matter late in the season? Seems like our LOOGYs were not very LOOGY-ish but guys like Hader, Burnes and Woodruff dominated no matter the handedness. The other is if an "initial out getter" is only going to pitch 3 to 4 innings, can they pitch more frequently? Maybe they just have a notion of "long arms" and "short arms"

 

I think True Blue Brew Crew was almost there in his earlier post but could we be seeing the evolution to split starters? I haven't thought through but could you expect to get 6-8 innings a game from something like this:

 

Anderson/Hader

Chacin/Burnes

Davies/Woodruff

Nelson/Guerra

 

Knebel, Jeffress, LOOGY, Albers (or whoever)

 

If you are only going to user Hader every three or four days anyway, why not use him as a quazi-starter. You have the flexibility to choose who "starts" and who "relieves" based on match-ups and if a starter goes seven innings you can always re-calibrate the pairings. You don't spend a dime outside of arbitration raises and whatever AAAA depth you bring in so it keep the cost minimal. You retain a ton of depth to manipulate the 40 man the way they did all year this year to deal with injuries and/or usage issues. The idea isn't to have strict "pairings" but to have a pool of "long arms" with the goal of getting 6-9 innings from that group and a pool of "short arms" with the expectation of getting 0-3 innings from that group. This would also, hopefully, help limit innings. The key, in my mind, would be to have enough depth (with options) to manipulate the 40 man. I don't know but this sure seems to be where things are going.

 

I don't know options but........

 

Long arm depth: Peralta, Z. Brown, Lyles, Houser and a couple of AAAA types (like Miley)

Short arm depth: T. Williams, QTC, Barnes and whoever else they sign/retain

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think we are somewhat glancing over the idea that the Brewers perhaps went the bullpenning and "initial out getter" route in part because they had a group of starters that they didn't feel 100% comfortable in letting go more than 4-5 innings. It was pretty obvious that, outside of Chacin, the team's most talented pitching was in the pen. Miley did well to string together some great starts, but I always got the feeling watching him pitch that he was a powder keg with a lit fuse just waiting to blow up. It was the same way with Davies and Anderson this year, Suter before he went down, and Gonzalez after he came over. Peralta had some very good starts, but had some blow-ups as well.

 

I think if they are serious about putting Burnes and Woodruff in the rotation, you are going to see more traditional type starts, as those guys are more talented than anything they had in the rotation this year. If Peralta matures he can get there as well. The good thing is that with all the depth, they are going to have guys with starting experience such as Guerra, Houser, Lyles and whoever gets beaten out for rotation spots that will be able to provide multiple innings of good relief.

[coolhandluke121]

I like Hernan Perez a lot as the 25th man/top utility player on the roster. But I think Stearns has to move him to another team so Counsell can't do things like bat him 5th in game five of a tight playoff series.

 

That's #1 on my "must do" list.

 

He's about as good a 5 hitter as anyone on the team against LHP's. They all chase junk pitches. They're all free swingers. But not a lot of them are bad against LHP's so Hernan was often there by default.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I like Hernan Perez a lot as the 25th man/top utility player on the roster. But I think Stearns has to move him to another team so Counsell can't do things like bat him 5th in game five of a tight playoff series.

 

That's #1 on my "must do" list.

 

He's about as good a 5 hitter as anyone on the team against LHP's. They all chase junk pitches. They're all free swingers. But not a lot of them are bad against LHP's so Hernan was often there by default.

 

This team matched up so bad against lefty starters at the end of the year. I guess I don't understand the people that are saying that they need to acquire more lefty hitters. I suppose a lot of that is that the guys that are theoretically supposed to crush lefties (Cain, Braun, Aguilar, Schoop, Santana) just didn't.

[tmwiese55]

I think we are somewhat glancing over the idea that the Brewers perhaps went the bullpenning and "initial out getter" route in part because they had a group of starters that they didn't feel 100% comfortable in letting go more than 4-5 innings. It was pretty obvious that, outside of Chacin, the team's most talented pitching was in the pen. Miley did well to string together some great starts, but I always got the feeling watching him pitch that he was a powder keg with a lit fuse just waiting to blow up. It was the same way with Davies and Anderson this year, Suter before he went down, and Gonzalez after he came over. Peralta had some very good starts, but had some blow-ups as well.

 

I think if they are serious about putting Burnes and Woodruff in the rotation, you are going to see more traditional type starts, as those guys are more talented than anything they had in the rotation this year. If Peralta matures he can get there as well. The good thing is that with all the depth, they are going to have guys with starting experience such as Guerra, Houser, Lyles and whoever gets beaten out for rotation spots that will be able to provide multiple innings of good relief.

 

I agree with this and it was what I was getting at in my post last night. If Burnes/Wood/Peralta pan out they'll be treated like normal starters in today's world.

[adambr2]

I could see Dubon being a fairly substantial contributor next year. Between him and Perez they can play basically anywhere so we can afford luxury bats elsewhere on the bench.

 

Dubon could be like our Ian Happ next year, probably not as much power but better contact and speed. He was really breaking out in 2018 prior to his injury. Granted you have to take the PCL with a grain of salt but he had a really good season with Boston in 2016 too prior to regressing some in '17 and rebounding in '18.

[adambr2]

I think we are somewhat glancing over the idea that the Brewers perhaps went the bullpenning and "initial out getter" route in part because they had a group of starters that they didn't feel 100% comfortable in letting go more than 4-5 innings. It was pretty obvious that, outside of Chacin, the team's most talented pitching was in the pen. Miley did well to string together some great starts, but I always got the feeling watching him pitch that he was a powder keg with a lit fuse just waiting to blow up. It was the same way with Davies and Anderson this year, Suter before he went down, and Gonzalez after he came over. Peralta had some very good starts, but had some blow-ups as well.

 

I think if they are serious about putting Burnes and Woodruff in the rotation, you are going to see more traditional type starts, as those guys are more talented than anything they had in the rotation this year. If Peralta matures he can get there as well. The good thing is that with all the depth, they are going to have guys with starting experience such as Guerra, Houser, Lyles and whoever gets beaten out for rotation spots that will be able to provide multiple innings of good relief.

 

I agree with this and it was what I was getting at in my post last night. If Burnes/Wood/Peralta pan out they'll be treated like normal starters in today's world.

 

I tend to be more in the 'traditional starter is dying in Milwaukee' crowd. These guys are really data driven and I don't think they want anyone going a 3rd time through the order if they can help it.

 

I'm not sure how they are going to approach 2019 but I'd be surprised if they just put together a traditional 5 man rotation and 7-8 man pen and leave it at that.

[Roderick]

I like Hernan Perez a lot as the 25th man/top utility player on the roster. But I think Stearns has to move him to another team so Counsell can't do things like bat him 5th in game five of a tight playoff series.

 

That's #1 on my "must do" list.

 

He's about as good a 5 hitter as anyone on the team against LHP's. They all chase junk pitches. They're all free swingers. But not a lot of them are bad against LHP's so Hernan was often there by default.

 

This team matched up so bad against lefty starters at the end of the year. I guess I don't understand the people that are saying that they need to acquire more lefty hitters. I suppose a lot of that is that the guys that are theoretically supposed to crush lefties (Cain, Braun, Aguilar, Schoop, Santana) just didn't.

 

I assume 65-75% of starters are righties. You need to make the playoffs before you worry about how you will do against specific teams in the playoffs. We need another lefty stick (or someone that hits righties well) if Moose leaves - unless you expect more out of Thames next year (I wouldn't plan on it).

 

It would seem the opening would be 2B. And that position is hopefully just a caretaker position until Hiura gets here. So target someone in free agency that isn't expecting a long-term deal or trade for someone in same circumstance. Lowrie, Murphy, Walker look to be a few that may fit the bill. Worst case is Perez and his .785 OPS against lefties platoons with them.

 

There is no guarantee that Ryu and Kershaw will even be Dodgers next year and Hill will be 39. I assume one or both of Hamels and Montgomery will not be in the Cubs starting rotation.

[82brewcrew82]

I'm not sure how they are going to approach 2019 but I'd be surprised if they just put together a traditional 5 man rotation and 7-8 man pen and leave it at that.

I agree in that this philosophy was born out of necessity but also agree that they think they have found something revolutionary here and I don't see them going back. To me, starting pitchers are now the running backs of baseball. You may have a couple of workhorse studs but for the most part they are interchangeable/replaceable pieces that breakdown too often (or are too hard to find) to waste many resources on.

[BrewersSuperCollector]

Burnes threw 58.7% fastballs, 34.2% sliders & 6.8% curves this year in MLB, so yes, essentially a two pitch pitcher.

 

Wow, this couldn't possibly be lazier. Actually yes it could, you could say "well...I've only ever seen him throw 2 pitches so.....". But come on man. Every scouting report that exists says that Burnes throws 4 pitches.

 

Throwing four pitches in the minor leagues is much different than throwing four pitches in the Major Leagues. When Burnes has pitched a full season deploying all four pitches with success against Major League hitters I will consider him a four pitch pitcher. If the curve or change up were currently as good as the slider, I believe they would have been thrown more even in relief.

 

If Corbin starts next year, pitches 175 innings & throws 50% fastballs, 30% sliders, 10% curveballs & 10% change ups, would you consider that a four pitch pitcher? Because to me, that still looks like effectively a two pitch guy.

 

Even if 10% usage is enough, there were only 15 qualified starters this season who had four pitches each at 10% usage or higher, so the four pitch pitcher appears to be pretty rare at this point.

 

As long as Burnes can throw those 4 pitches for strikes, then yes that is a 4 pitch pitcher. In a 10 pitch at bat that would be 5 fastballs, 3 sliders, 1 curve ball, and 1 change up. Do you expect pitchers to throw ever pitch equally? The point is to keep the hitter off balance.

[tmwiese55]

I think we are somewhat glancing over the idea that the Brewers perhaps went the bullpenning and "initial out getter" route in part because they had a group of starters that they didn't feel 100% comfortable in letting go more than 4-5 innings. It was pretty obvious that, outside of Chacin, the team's most talented pitching was in the pen. Miley did well to string together some great starts, but I always got the feeling watching him pitch that he was a powder keg with a lit fuse just waiting to blow up. It was the same way with Davies and Anderson this year, Suter before he went down, and Gonzalez after he came over. Peralta had some very good starts, but had some blow-ups as well.

 

I think if they are serious about putting Burnes and Woodruff in the rotation, you are going to see more traditional type starts, as those guys are more talented than anything they had in the rotation this year. If Peralta matures he can get there as well. The good thing is that with all the depth, they are going to have guys with starting experience such as Guerra, Houser, Lyles and whoever gets beaten out for rotation spots that will be able to provide multiple innings of good relief.

 

I agree with this and it was what I was getting at in my post last night. If Burnes/Wood/Peralta pan out they'll be treated like normal starters in today's world.

 

I tend to be more in the 'traditional starter is dying in Milwaukee' crowd. These guys are really data driven and I don't think they want anyone going a 3rd time through the order if they can help it.

 

I'm not sure how they are going to approach 2019 but I'd be surprised if they just put together a traditional 5 man rotation and 7-8 man pen and leave it at that.

 

Have to remember 40 man rosters and a day off after 2 or 3 games is different than the rest of the season.

 

I agree 'traditional' in the sense to try and get 7-9 innings is likely not going to be a thing here. And that we're more concerned about times through the order than pitch count. But 2-3 times through the order and 5-6 innings is completely normal to the rest of the league though at this point. But we are just going to be very quick to pull at first sign of trouble in that 3rd time through. Plus we're going to 'plan' for the 5-6 inning start by having several guys who can go multiple innings in the pen, as opposed to other teams still stuck in the 1 inning relivers. I guess that's all I'm saying, the avg mlb start is probably like 5.33 innings (just guessing) so doing that isn't weird at this point.

 

They tried a traditional route all this year with blah starters, now that they have some real talent to work with in these 3 young guys (plus possibly Nelson) I don't see them trying a 3-4 inning playoff model. you just don't have enough arms in the pen to do it.

[KeithStone53151]

Throwing four pitches in the minor leagues is much different than throwing four pitches in the Major Leagues. When Burnes has pitched a full season deploying all four pitches with success against Major League hitters I will consider him a four pitch pitcher. If the curve or change up were currently as good as the slider, I believe they would have been thrown more even in relief.

 

If Corbin starts next year, pitches 175 innings & throws 50% fastballs, 30% sliders, 10% curveballs & 10% change ups, would you consider that a four pitch pitcher? Because to me, that still looks like effectively a two pitch guy.

 

Even if 10% usage is enough, there were only 15 qualified starters this season who had four pitches each at 10% usage or higher, so the four pitch pitcher appears to be pretty rare at this point.

 

I'd argue anything as far down as in the 7-8% range makes it a pitch, so even this year his curve was a pitch in my opinion. That's roughly the mix I'd expect from Burnes as a starter, probably a bit more curveballs and less changeups unless he really works on that pitch. It won't be his best pitch right away, but 7-8% is enough to keep a guy thinking about it...or put him off balance if he isn't thinking about it and you throw a decent one. Especially when you consider he will certainly only throw that pitch to LHB. This year he faced 1/3 LHB, if he faced similar next year that would mean 20% of his pitches to LHB would be changeup. This is part of why I argue his curve was actually a legit pitch this year. He threw it almost exclusively to LHB, so again about 20% of his pitches to LHB was a curve. And I saw the pitch, it was a solid pitch...not as good as his other 2 but easily a good enough pitch to keep a guy off his best 2 offerings.

 

Coming out of the bullpen, you don't get side sessions to work on things like starters do, every outing counts. A starter can throw his changeup in a side session and get to a point of feeling comfortable with it in game action. For a reliever with 4 pitches, it's much easier to ditch the weakest offering temporarily and stick with your 3 best ones...and especially to ride your 2 best pitches.

[LouisEly]

If Corbin starts next year, pitches 175 innings & throws 50% fastballs, 30% sliders, 10% curveballs & 10% change ups, would you consider that a four pitch pitcher? Because to me, that still looks like effectively a two pitch guy.

 

Even if 10% usage is enough, there were only 15 qualified starters this season who had four pitches each at 10% usage or higher, so the four pitch pitcher appears to be pretty rare at this point.

Remember, 10% usage means one out of every 10 pitches, or 1-2 per inning. If you combine 10% CB and 10% CU, that's 20%, or one out of every five pitches.

 

One out of every five pitches not being a FB or SL is a 3-pitch pitcher to me.

 

I think we are somewhat glancing over the idea that the Brewers perhaps went the bullpenning and "initial out getter" route in part because they had a group of starters that they didn't feel 100% comfortable in letting go more than 4-5 innings. It was pretty obvious that, outside of Chacin, the team's most talented pitching was in the pen.

I don't know about that. Half of the pitchers on the post-season roster are or were starters - Chacin, Miley, Burnes, Woodruff, Guerra, Peralta. I think the analytics showed a significant increase in OPS-A the third time through the order and that's what they were trying to avoid.

 

If you have a guy go 2-3 innings he can come back two days later, maybe one inning the next day if it was two with a low pitch count; if you have a guy go five innings he can't come back until at least four days later. I think it was more about guys going only once, twice max, through the order and being available sooner as opposed to going 5+ innings and not being available the next 3-4 days.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

LouisEly, you're right on. You can safely subtract the words "I think" from your sentences above. There's no doubt it. The analytics definitely show those things and the Brewers are definitely going to exploit it going forward. The tandems and piggybacking are coming and they will be here to stay.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

LouisEly, you're right on. You can safely subtract the words "I think" from your sentences above. There's no doubt it. The analytics definitely show those things and the Brewers are definitely going to exploit it going forward. The tandems and piggybacking are coming and they will be here to stay.

 

I'm skeptical that this is actually going to happen, but I guess we'll see. I don't think any of us know anything about what the plan actually is. It's all speculation at this point.

[pacopete4]

Don’t see piggy backing happening as a long term solution. Handcuffs your pen too much over 162 games.

[MNBrew]

^^This. Lots of folks who know a lot more about baseball than we posters here do seemed to think that the Brewers' heavy BP usage was a logical plan for the postseason but overall, and even in the postseason, raised questions with regularity about its sustainability. Obviously it mostly worked out well in September spurts and in the playoffs. Counsell knew what he had on his staff and had pretty good if not unorthodox ideas about how to get the most out of those guys.

 

However, like many of those "expert" types, I have serious doubts about it being something that can be sweepingly effective on a long-term basis without frying arms, whether that specifically means significant/debilitating fatigue or simply effectiveness.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

^^This. Lots of folks who know a lot more about baseball than we posters here do seemed to think that the Brewers' heavy BP usage was a logical plan for the postseason but overall, and even in the postseason, raised questions with regularity about its sustainability. Obviously it mostly worked out well in September spurts and in the playoffs. Counsell knew what he had on his staff and had pretty good if not unorthodox ideas about how to get the most out of those guys.

 

However, like many of those "expert" types, I have serious doubts about it being something that can be sweepingly effective on a long-term basis without frying arms, whether that specifically means significant/debilitating fatigue or simply effectiveness.

 

That would be my fear. Is pitching a guy like Corbin Burnes three innings every three days sustainable long term, or is that going to cause more wear and tear on an arm? There may be something that points to shorter starts being feasible, but I just simply think the Brewers played to their strength, which was a deep bullpen full of stud power pitchers. If they had those sort of horses in the starting rotation, we would have saw longer starts. My hope is that Burnes and Woodruff can be that type of starter that regularly goes 7 innings. We saw several times during the season where the pen was burned out, and I'd argue that Game 7 of the NLCS was there as well.

[adambr2]

^^This. Lots of folks who know a lot more about baseball than we posters here do seemed to think that the Brewers' heavy BP usage was a logical plan for the postseason but overall, and even in the postseason, raised questions with regularity about its sustainability. Obviously it mostly worked out well in September spurts and in the playoffs. Counsell knew what he had on his staff and had pretty good if not unorthodox ideas about how to get the most out of those guys.

 

However, like many of those "expert" types, I have serious doubts about it being something that can be sweepingly effective on a long-term basis without frying arms, whether that specifically means significant/debilitating fatigue or simply effectiveness.

 

That would be my fear. Is pitching a guy like Corbin Burnes three innings every three days sustainable long term, or is that going to cause more wear and tear on an arm? There may be something that points to shorter starts being feasible, but I just simply think the Brewers played to their strength, which was a deep bullpen full of stud power pitchers. If they had those sort of horses in the starting rotation, we would have saw longer starts. My hope is that Burnes and Woodruff can be that type of starter that regularly goes 7 innings. We saw several times during the season where the pen was burned out, and I'd argue that Game 7 of the NLCS was there as well.

 

I don't see any regular 7 inning starters in this rotation because again, I just don't think that fits our organizational philosophies. Almost everyone gets hit hard the 3rd time through the order and these guys will likely be no exception.

 

The 7 inning starter is pretty much dead anyway, it's not just us. Chris Sale himself averaged less than 6 IP in 2018.

 

I also don't really buy that the pen just got worn down. They were almost all, for the most part, phenomenal in the playoffs. They didn't look worn down at all, if anything they looked better than the regular season. Maybe Jeffress, but he still had flashes of good stuff and plenty of bad luck involved.

 

You do bring up an interesting point on these guys though and I'm curious to know the answer, too. We know top end starters can go 200+ innings and top pen arms 80-90. So what is the likely annual workload for a guy throwing 2-4 innings every 3-4 days? Is 135-140 IP a year feasible in that role?

[tmwiese55]

I think we can agree that the pen was burned out heading into the ASB and during the 17 game stretch after can't we? This is all very different when you have 25 man roster limits and you don't have an off day for 9-12 days at a time. Come September and October though, let's get weird.

[adambr2]

I think we can agree that the pen was burned out heading into the ASB and during the 17 game stretch after can't we? This is all very different when you have 25 man roster limits and you don't have an off day for 9-12 days at a time. Come September and October though, let's get weird.

 

You do have to figure out how to balance an analytical approach with how you are going to manage the rigors of a 162 game season, yes. Things will happen and approaches will have to be flexible.

 

It doesn't mean that a traditional 5 man rotation is the only way to do that, though.

[JosephC]

History is littered with power pitchers like Tom Seaver and Nolan Ryan that often pitched on 3 days rest and threw 260+ innings per season. Now we question whether a pitcher can throw on two days rest when being limited to 60 pitches per outing and throw 162 innings in a season?

 

The 3-3-3 should be renamed the 60-60-60 because that's what the "experts" figure is the pitch limit when throwing on two days rest. I haven't seen the numbers for 2018, but for 2017 the average half inning was 18 pitches. So, on average, the 60 pitches translates to 3 innings of work.

[shanedog19]

Stearns must improve the offense this offseason. The disparity in hitting between us and Boston is pretty glaring. The Red Sox are constantly putting pressure on the opposition and driving in runners in scoring position. If we want to be a likely World Series champion like they are, we have to get close to where they are offensively in my opinion. It will be interesting to see how Stearns goes about this going into the offseason.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Stearns must improve the offense this offseason. The disparity in hitting between us and Boston is pretty glaring. The Red Sox are constantly putting pressure on the opposition and driving in runners in scoring position. If we want to be a likely World Series champion like they are, we have to get close to where they are offensively in my opinion. It will be interesting to see how Stearns goes about this going into the offseason.

 

Yep, more putting the ball in play, less striking out. The acquisitions of Cain and Yelich helped them make strides in this area, but obviously more lineup reconstruction is needed. If wasn't obvious by now, the Brewers do not believe in bunting. When a leadoff batter makes it to first or second, they want 3 cracks at delivering a hit to bring the runner in. And just putting the ball in play can advance the runner. Schoop and Moustakas both struggle in this area and would take way too much payroll. Keeping both of those two would eat up payroll and set the team back in its pursuit of cutting down unproductive outs.

[FVBrewerFan]

Don't rule out Stearns acquiring another OF. He has always shown he will sign just about anyone, regardless of position, to improve the roster. If that means he's able o sign or trade for an OF, they'll make it work. Just like last season, with all the fear of where will everyone play in the OF/1B it worked out.

 

Also, part of me wants to just roll the dice with Dubon at 2B if he looks ready in ST. I rather see him than the laundry list of Saladino/Sogard types. If Dubon can hit MLB pitching even decently, he can slide right over to UT eventually when Hiura comes up.