David Stearns must do's for the offseason

[nate82]

1. Sign Marwin Gonzalez to play 2B

2. Braun to the bench with Santana taking 80% of the starts.

3. Add another bullpen arm or two

4. Trade Schoop to anyone for anything

5. Anderson to the Angels for low level prospects

[KeithStone53151]

 

Big things are depth and financial flexibility. The team's payroll is going to rise with all the arby cases, so avoiding big contracts on luxuries (like Soria) and focusing on our homegrown talent is critical. We add a few 2nd tier FAs, but nothing more.

 

To win, this team needs to take some chances on young players. It's just the way baseball works for a small market club.

 

A lot of good points. Especially payroll, your plan payroll is probably 125-130ish depending on how much Miley/2b/C cost. I'd expect around 20-25 combined per year.

 

I can understand Peralta/Burnes/Woodruff kinda competing for that 5th starter role with the biggest loser ending up in AAA and 2nd loser ending up in the bullpen. One guy you didn't fit in anywhere was Nelson, not sure if you are ignoring him and figuring anything he provides is a bonus. That's a reasonable take considering the injury.

 

I'd like to give 2 rotation spots to younger guys if we can. 2 of Woodruff/Peralta/Burnes. We do have options coming up behind them in AAA. I'm not entirely sold that Chacin/Miley can do this again, so I don't think I want to count on either as more than a 4th or 5th starter. Those young arms are our chance for mid-rotation or better starters...the odds of them becoming that are greater than another low 3s ERA out of either one of Miley/Chacin in my opinion.

[OnaBadger58]

Burnes threw 58.7% fastballs, 34.2% sliders & 6.8% curves this year in MLB, so yes, essentially a two pitch pitcher.

 

Burnes specifically said he will throw four pitches if he goes back to starting.

 

“I mixed in the curveball and slider out of the pen … obviously we didn’t throw the changeup much because we didn’t need a fourth pitch,” he said. “I’d mix it more in as a starter.

 

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2018/10/21/brandon-woodruff-corbin-burnes-showcase-potential-2019-brewers-rotation/1694782002/

 

I'm not saying he will be effective as a starter, just that using the data for his time as a reliever does not reflect on how he would pitch in the rotation.

Burnes' main focus this year in the minors was to work on the off speed pitches; specifically the change up. That, along with playing in Colorado Springs, were why is numbers looked more average than one would expect out of Burnes. It's also why he was in the minors longer than perhaps he needed to be since he transitioned to a RP for the year. His fastball/cutter/slider are quite obviously MLB ready. I have no doubts that Corbin will start the year out in the rotation.

[OnaBadger58]

I'm going to bet we get a TOR arm via trade. If not, a solid #2 type.

 

I feel like we say this every offseason and trade deadline. I'm not saying it will for sure not happen, but I think we've seen that Stearns has a completely different perspective on his pitching staff than outsiders, and we have a much better future pitching staff already in place now than we did at this time last year.

 

There's not a TOR or solid #2 type that won't cost us Keston Hiura, and I think that would be a really bad move.

 

I think people (not saying you) are looking at losing Game 7 and thinking "Oh crap. I guess we really do need to go get an ace." I don't think Stearns is looking at it that way. I think he looks at it and says, "We started this at 68 wins. We went from there to 73, to 86, to 96 and one win away from a World Series. What we are doing is working and we are going to keep on going this direction."

 

I think we say it every offseason, but did we really expect it? I know I was happy we didn't trade for a TOR SP because I wasn't sure exactly where this team stood. I think heading into this offseason it's clear there is a nice window for contending on a yearly basis which has not been the case in previous years.

 

So I'm not sold on Stearns having a different perspective on SP's as opposed to Stearns didn't want to trade away prospects for a TOR starter when the team was still a year or two away from contending. I would not be surprised to see a high quality starter traded/signed to the Brewers in this offseason.

[Lathund]

That's one potential solution to the infield situation gone. Is 3/21 for Eduardo Escobar something you guys would've been happy with?

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/d-backs-agree-to-new-deal-with-eduardo-escobar.html

[pacopete4]

Doesn’t scream to me that Arizona is selling.

[502 to Right]

Can people stop suggesting the Brewers trade Schoop? He has no trade value. The Brewers will either non-tender him (I hope), or keep him and hope he turns into 2017 Jonathan Schoop.

[adambr2]

3/21 is a lot cheaper than I thought Escobar would be. Either he really loves Arizona or players are just terrified to get anywhere near free agency.

[Devinep]

3/21 is a lot cheaper than I thought Escobar would be. Either he really loves Arizona or players are just terrified to get anywhere near free agency.

 

Good news for a team looking for a 2B

[benji]

Yes lower than I expected too. Maybe get Lowrie 2 years?

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Can people stop suggesting the Brewers trade Schoop? He has no trade value. The Brewers will either non-tender him (I hope), or keep him and hope he turns into 2017 Jonathan Schoop.

 

And this is exactly why I think there is still a chance he is retained and kept saying in IGTs. Because if you can get him to be even a slight regression of the player he was in 2017 he has value to the Brewers. He is 27. He has an offseason to study what went wrong, possibly work with some coaches and a spring training to adjust and get a fresh start. Not every player adapts to a new place like that right away.

 

I don't feel bad for him and his performance was as terrible as everyone says, but I believe the Brewers are yet to decide what they're doing with him. It is not this cut and dry "he sucked, bye" thing that everyone seems think it is.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

3/21 is a lot cheaper than I thought Escobar would be. Either he really loves Arizona or players are just terrified to get anywhere near free agency.

 

Yeah, I thought he might want to try for 3/25 or more, but maybe guys like him are changing mindsets. This gives him 20 mil guaranteed through his age 33 season. Bad news is he's off the board. Good news is this might mean FAs will be more affordable for us.

[pacopete4]

3/21 is a lot cheaper than I thought Escobar would be. Either he really loves Arizona or players are just terrified to get anywhere near free agency.

 

Yeah, I thought he might want to try for 3/25 or more, but maybe guys like him are changing mindsets. This gives him 20 mil guaranteed through his age 33 season. Bad news is he's off the board. Good news is this might mean FAs will be more affordable for us.

 

And since his contract is nice, he’s still tradable.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Folks, almost every pitcher is a 3-4 pitch pitcher. They all either actively work on or toy with a variety of pitches. It all depends on what role they're called on to do. Relievers are former high school or college starters who just didn't have major league caliber 3rd and/or 4th pitches. So they depend on their 1-2 MLB quality pitches and appear in short stints. The ones who have at least 3 different looks of MLB quality are the ones who stick as starters. Burnes throws 4 pitches but only 2 were MLB ready when they temporarily switched him to the pen midseason. If they felt his curve and or change was ready there was plenty of need for a starter when Suter and Davies were on the shelf. He was still having trouble with his secondary stuff in AAA.

 

sveumrules was not being deceptive or disingenuous showing that Burnes was a 2-pitch pitcher with the Brewers this year, Heck, Ben Sheets was essentially a 2-pitch pitcher. No one is downgrading Burnes when they say he no lock to be an ACE or even a once every 5 days guy. He could be a once every 3-4 days guy who starts one appearance and then piggybacks in relief the next. We're only saying he has yet to show he has more than 2 MLB grade pitches. He has a curveball he wasn't afraid to throw in the majors and that's a good start. He didn't need to throw anything other than fastballs and sliders because opponents were only getting one look at him. If the Brewers thought his curve or change were ready he would have been brought up to start this past year. Simple as that. It doesn't mean he won't get there. We all anticipate him being an initial out getter in 2019 right from the get go. Call that a starter and in the rotation if that's what feels comfortable. It just won't be entirely what you're used to.

[JosephC]

I like Hernan Perez a lot as the 25th man/top utility player on the roster. But I think Stearns has to move him to another team so Counsell can't do things like bat him 5th in game five of a tight playoff series.

 

That's #1 on my "must do" list.

[Eye Black]

People here still way underestimating Peralta. Odd because so many want to stick with the traditional model with a rotation and relievers and Peralta is the one out of he, Burnes, and Woodruff that actually holds up multiple times through. I saw someone call Woodruff an "ACE". Might want to wait and see if he can fool hitters with more offerings beyond one trip through the order before you make that leap. Lots to be excited about, but most of these suggestions are way off imo. Lots of false assumptions and extrapolations that aren't realistic.

In the last week we have had posters speak in sweeping generalities that “the board” is too much in love with Peralta, and now alledge that he is being way underestimated. I think a lot of people here actually have a more balanced view on Peralta than is being portrayed. He is a pitcher that obviously saw both success and failure over the course of the season. He throws his fastball nearly 80% of the time and is prone to losing his command. He does, however, possess elite extension off the rubber for someone his size that seems to lead to really good deception against hitters. At this point I don’t think even the Brewers know for sure how viable his long-term prospects are as a starter, and I think a lot of people here understand the performance variance possible with Peralta going forward.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

 

Well, you're going to be disappointed. Because he is a starter in 2019 unless he is hurt, or implodes in March.

 

He is a 4-pitch pitcher and has been for a while, read any scouting report on him. When you are getting 3-6 outs per game you are not going to have a 4-pitch distribution so his 2018 pitch splits are useless for that discussion.

 

But the team has stated he is a starter. So I don't know why this is a thing.

 

I'm not going to be disappointed because I've stated over and over that he's an initial out getter for the Brewers out of spring training in 2019. I don't use the term starter for the same reason Counsell doesn't use it. Where you'll be surprised is if you think he's going to be deployed like a traditional starter in a 5-man rotation. He'll be managed in a variety of creative ways. There's no sense trying to get Burnes to the 35-start, 210 inning level when the team has no intent of calling on pitchers to do that anymore.

[LouisEly]

Will there be room for Woodruff, Burnes, and Peralta in the rotation?

If no injuries and no trading Anderson (which I give a 95% chance of happening), no.

 

They have plenty of SP depth:

Majors: Chacin, Davies, Burnes, Woodruff, and one of Nelson/Anderson

Swing man/emergency starters: Guerra, Houser

AAA depth: Peralta, Z. Brown, Supak, Derby, Wilkerson

AA depth: Webb, Diplan

 

They don't need Peralta in the rotation - he still has command issues to work on and should start in AAA. He'll be the first one up in case of injury, and I could see them giving him the Burnes bullpen treatment but Burnes has a lot better command than Peralta. If Nelson isn't ready they'll either keep Anderson or have Houser as the 5th starter; Houser is out of options next year so he will need to be kept on the major league roster in some capacity.

 

Based on this, I don't think they need to go out and get starting pitching. Assuming they keep Guerra and Houser, they'll have two long relievers in the pen if for some reason they want to limit Burnes or Woodruff's innings.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Woodruff, Peralta, Burnes, Nelson, Chacin, Anderson, and Davies can all be in the rotation if they piggyback. Heck, Guerra could be in there too.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a 12-man staff set up like this for 2019...

 

Initial Out Getters - Two to Three Times Through Guys

 

Chacin

Burnes

Peralta

Nelson

Anderson (or a LHP TBNL)

Guerra (or a LHP TBNL)

Davies (or a LHP TBNL)

 

With any of Anderson, Guerra, or Davies to be moved at some point to make room for a LHP or even two LHPs.

 

Mid-to-Late Game Out Getters - One Time Through Guys

 

Hader

Knebel

Jeffress

Woodruff

Jennings or Cedeno or a LHP to be named later

 

Woodruff could very easily be in the top group and swap places with Anderson, Guerra, or Davies. If Soria isn't moved, they'll likely have to stash someone in AAA at the outset.

 

I would expect one if not both of Anderson/Davies to be moved in the offseason. Need a LH initial out getter or two and the Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff trio are ready to break camp in the majors.

[reillymcshane]

 

Big things are depth and financial flexibility. The team's payroll is going to rise with all the arby cases, so avoiding big contracts on luxuries (like Soria) and focusing on our homegrown talent is critical. We add a few 2nd tier FAs, but nothing more.

 

To win, this team needs to take some chances on young players. It's just the way baseball works for a small market club.

 

A lot of good points. Especially payroll, your plan payroll is probably 125-130ish depending on how much Miley/2b/C cost. I'd expect around 20-25 combined per year.

 

I can understand Peralta/Burnes/Woodruff kinda competing for that 5th starter role with the biggest loser ending up in AAA and 2nd loser ending up in the bullpen. One guy you didn't fit in anywhere was Nelson, not sure if you are ignoring him and figuring anything he provides is a bonus. That's a reasonable take considering the injury.

 

I'd like to give 2 rotation spots to younger guys if we can. 2 of Woodruff/Peralta/Burnes. We do have options coming up behind them in AAA. I'm not entirely sold that Chacin/Miley can do this again, so I don't think I want to count on either as more than a 4th or 5th starter. Those young arms are our chance for mid-rotation or better starters...the odds of them becoming that are greater than another low 3s ERA out of either one of Miley/Chacin in my opinion.

 

I forgot about Nelson, but I will stick with my ideas until I know he is healthy. If he is, then we could entertain trading a starter such as Anderson. But I'll hold my breath on Jimmy until I see him. It would be a huge boost if he could come back and pitch next year.

[tmwiese55]

2-3 times through the order is essentially a completely normal starter these days, outside of your super aces like Max. That's not out of the ordinary at all. They're not all of a sudden going to go to the playoff model all the time we saw this year. I feel like we're overthinking or overdoing it a touch. For most of the year you have 25 man rosters and you don't have a day off after 2 or 3 games every time and you won't have 40 man rosters like they had in September.

 

They will have to deploy a somewhat normal starting rotation, just like the did this season because you just can't handle the innings otherwise. The difference is that we're going to yank at the first sign of trouble during that 3rd time through the lineup instead of going to 100 pitches every time, like most teams are still trying to do if they can. To make up for this tweak they're going to have a couple multi inning guys like Hader, Guerra, and maybe Wood/Peralta.

 

Long story short, having starters go 2-4 innings like in the playoffs isn't sustainable for a whole season. They will still have the goal of developing normal starting Ps like they have a great chance to do in Burnes, Wood, Peralta, Brown, and more. The potential is there for all these guys, will they make it? Who knows. But I think their chances of success are high and I think higher because of the tweaks they're making to pull guys a touch early which keeps their stats looking better, arms fresher, confidence higher, etc.

 

Come September and beyond though, they're going to do all they can to maximize their depth and any advantages it can give.

[MNBrew]

I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a 12-man staff set up like this for 2019...

 

Initial Out Getters - Two to Three Times Through Guys

 

Chacin

Burnes

Peralta

Nelson

Anderson (or a LHP TBNL)

Guerra (or a LHP TBNL)

Davies (or a LHP TBNL)

 

With any of Anderson, Guerra, or Davies to be moved at some point to make room for a LHP or even two LHPs.

 

Mid-to-Late Game Out Getters - One Time Through Guys

 

Hader

Knebel

Jeffress

Woodruff

Jennings or Cedeno or a LHP to be named later

 

Woodruff could very easily be in the top group and swap places with Anderson, Guerra, or Davies. If Soria isn't moved, they'll likely have to stash someone in AAA at the outset.

 

I would expect one if not both of Anderson/Davies to be moved in the offseason. Need a LH initial out getter or two and the Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff trio are ready to break camp in the majors.

I don't see this setting up quite the way you have it -- my hunch is something that looks more like the "traditional" SP/RP model -- but I think most of those names are in the mix. One name seemingly missing here from the 2nd group (and many others' posts) is Taylor Williams. He was in the 1st half what Soria was acquired to be in the 2nd half when Williams (rightly, unfortunately) lost some of that high-leverage status. It was only Williams' 1st year in the bigs and he fizzled some in the 2nd half, but I think he's still a viable piece in the long run.

 

The fun of this is that we seemingly have pretty excellent pitching depth even though we lack a Scherzer/Kershaw/TOR type. But sooner or later you can't keep all the current depth because new/other depth pieces push their way toward the top, too, and something eventually has to give.

[MNBrew]

1. Get a catcher to platoon with Pena. Wilson Ramos would be sweet. Kratz is not the answer. I'm fine giving the guy a job at AAA as depth, but not the big league roster.

2. Determine if you want to have Schoop as your 2B in 2019. I am skeptical after his 2018 season, but he was very good just a year ago. The price of $9M+ might help us make this decision. The lure of Schoop putting up his 2017 numbers (.290+BA, 30+ HR) might be too hard to pass up. Otherwise, add a one year stop-gap player. Dozier, Murphy and Harrison are few options. There are some other guys out there as well. All these guys have their warts (age, injuries, etc.), so there's no perfect situation. Hiura may be an option by season's end.

3. Figure out what's up with Domingo Santana. I just don't know. A 30 HR hitting RF would be nice to have - I just don't know if that guy is coming back.

4. Resign Miley to a shorter term deal. Hopefully, two years. Maybe have an option if it's necessary. I'm happy checking in on Patrick Corbin, but he's going to be the top pitcher on the market (barring Kershaw reaching FA), and will just get way too much cash and too many years.

5. Let Soria and Moose become FAs. $10M for a reliever is just a lot of money - especially one who's not that great. Moose just doesn't have a position.

6. Don't tender contracts to Jennings, Cedeno. Neither is that good. It's not a big deal to keep either, but there are other options who will be cheaper.

 

The rest of the roster is good.

 

C - Pina

1B - Aguilar/Thames - I'd keep Thames in case Aguilar plays more like the post-all-star game Jesus. Thames can still contribute as a PH and occasional starter, and he provides valuable depth if Aguilar falters or is hurt. If a trade was worked out for Thames this off season, I'd want to make sure there was a decent fallback available in case Aguilar struggled.

SS - Arcia with Dubon as a fallback.

3B - Shaw - His struggles against lefties were troublesome, but he still hit 30 HR and played good defense. Just keep him and hope he can rebound a bit.

OF - Yelich, Braun, Cain are set. Again, not sure about Santana. If Domingo is traded, then a solid reserve is needed.

SP - Chacin, Anderson, Burnes, Davies, Miley (while Anderson and Davies had their issues last season, they have shown the ability to do well, and I think they can provide solid production, which is really important over a long season).

RP - Jeffress, Hader, Torres-Costa, Barnes, Knebel, Guerra, T. Williams, Woodruff

Peralta or Woodruff can step into the rotation as needed. Peralta may need to start at AAA to work on his control, but he'll likely be up sooner than later as injuries or someone else's ineffectiveness comes into play. He could also work his way into the bullpen if the club elects to move him there.

 

Big things are depth and financial flexibility. The team's payroll is going to rise with all the arby cases, so avoiding big contracts on luxuries (like Soria) and focusing on our homegrown talent is critical. We add a few 2nd tier FAs, but nothing more.

 

To win, this team needs to take some chances on young players. It's just the way baseball works for a small market club.

I'm right about on the same wavelength with all this. A couple variances:

 

- I'd resign Miley if the price is reasonable enough.

- I like Soria but not for $10M.

- I'd keep Santana. Your 4th OF needs to be someone who you'd be comfortable with starting 100 games (due to others' injuries, slumps, or whatever). His K rate isn't good, but he still has a sorta-respectable OBP relative to his BA in spite of the ugly K rate. He's a much more productive version of Broxton at the plate, plus he's 2+ years younger. And his September & October performance off the bench was encouraging -- not unlike what got him into the mix as a potential OF starter in the first place a couple years ago. He's still under control and not that expensive. If we rid ourselves of Santana somehow, we're just going to be spending more money or assets on someone who hopefully could do what Santana's already shown he can do.

- I'm not sold on Schoop. Hot streak right before the trade made him look (temporarily) like the Schoop of 2017. But the yearlong view of 2018 Schoop was much worse than the 2017 version. I fear we already may have seen what the emperor's new clothes are actually like.

- I like Moustakas on several levels, but the guy absolutely has to do better at not trying to pull 98% of the pitches thrown to him. I'd keep him & leave Shaw at 2B for another year IF a half-decent one-year contract could happen. I'd prefer keeping him over Schoop for sure. But I'm not convinced he's here next year. (Side note: Shaw's career OBP is a good 25 points above Moose's, and his career OPS is 70 points higher... and he's significantly cheaper.)

- One utility player needs to have some experience in that role. Perez isn't stellar but fits the utility role well -- good D versatility, some speed, good team guy, somehow ends up with a not-complete-garbage BA with sporadic PT even if his K rate is horrid. If a better utility IF comes along, I'm definitely not opposed to moving on from Perez.

- I like the Dubon idea but a) who knows if he's healthy yet, and b) if he is, who knows if his bat is going to be MLB-ready with a many-month layoff underway. He was as hot as could be up to the injury, but I doubt he's quite as good as he was during that 23-game hit streak. And even if he does end up on the roster, who knows if he's ready to be in a Perez-like backup role. I suspect he'll start in AAA and get a shot at some MLB time if his play merits it.

- I think Vogt (if healthy) & Kratz both are worth keeping in the mix, but they both seem likely to be NRI candidates with a legit MLB contract to activate if they can earn a spot. I'm not convinced Nottingham's ready to be an everyday MLB roster guy -- though I think he'd have to be by 2020 -- so I'd guess either Kratz or Vogt is our backup C next year, and the other may still end up in AAA.

 

To me, however we get there, one very important point is continuing to shift toward guys who make better contact more consistently. Maybe some of our suspect guys can improve (Arcia?), maybe not. But Moose & Schoop were definite steps backwards in that respect. Moose hit okay his first month-plus here, but eventually regressed closer to his career norms..... Guys are still going to strike out, but the swing rate at bad pitches seems way too high over the course of this year.

[sveumrules]

Burnes threw 58.7% fastballs, 34.2% sliders & 6.8% curves this year in MLB, so yes, essentially a two pitch pitcher.

 

Wow, this couldn't possibly be lazier. Actually yes it could, you could say "well...I've only ever seen him throw 2 pitches so.....". But come on man. Every scouting report that exists says that Burnes throws 4 pitches.

 

Throwing four pitches in the minor leagues is much different than throwing four pitches in the Major Leagues. When Burnes has pitched a full season deploying all four pitches with success against Major League hitters I will consider him a four pitch pitcher. If the curve or change up were currently as good as the slider, I believe they would have been thrown more even in relief.

 

If Corbin starts next year, pitches 175 innings & throws 50% fastballs, 30% sliders, 10% curveballs & 10% change ups, would you consider that a four pitch pitcher? Because to me, that still looks like effectively a two pitch guy.

 

Even if 10% usage is enough, there were only 15 qualified starters this season who had four pitches each at 10% usage or higher, so the four pitch pitcher appears to be pretty rare at this point.