David Stearns must do's for the offseason

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Burnes should have been starting long ago, for whatever reason they didnt.

 

There's a very apparent reason he wasn't starting for the Brewers in 2018. He was a 2-pitch pitcher who could dominate in shorter spurts. And he was a big part of their late season success in that role. It's also why he can't just be penciled in to make 35 starts and pitch 200+ innings in 2019. There is a way to have him be one of your stalwarts from Opening Day right on through October while throwing 150-160 innings though.

[MrTPlush]

They need to shake up the roster or else we will see a nice drop in the win column. I think Stearns needs to really make an effort to create a force with the offense. The pitching is there and will be there. If we are going to sell the farm it will be for a RHB...pretty confident there. I don't think he shoots for a TOR guy as I don't see the need. This team is bullpen heavy and will work that way again.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I think Stearns needs to really make an effort to create a force with the offense.

 

They really need another contact bat. Moustakas and Schoop weren't guys that fit the profile of what they want long-term. They were what was available at the deadline at a price the Brewers were comfortable with. If the Dodgers hadn't trumped the Brewers offer for Machado, it's very likely neither would have been Brewers. I expect both to be gone and the resources instead directed at someone or someones who better fit the mold of defense and putting the ball in play.

[Roderick]

Burnes should have been starting long ago, for whatever reason they didnt.

 

There's a very apparent reason he wasn't starting for the Brewers in 2018. He was a 2-pitch pitcher who could dominate in shorter spurts. And he was a big part of their late season success in that role. It's also why he can't just be penciled in to make 35 starts and pitch 200+ innings in 2019. There is a way to have him be one of your stalwarts from Opening Day right on through October while throwing 150-160 innings though.

 

Are you mixing up Burnes with Woodruff?

 

I thought Burnes has four pitches that are at least ML average.

 

Whereas, I thought Woodruff is maybe a guy that might get dinged up hard the third time through a lineup.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Burnes has 4 pitches and is almost definitely a starter in 2019.

[MrTPlush]

Burnes has 4 pitches and is almost definitely a starter in 2019.

 

Yes, the Brewers were pretty adamant about this the second he went into a reliever. I have no reason to believe otherwise. Their tone was a lot different than when they spoke about Hader.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Burnes should have been starting long ago, for whatever reason they didnt.

 

There's a very apparent reason he wasn't starting for the Brewers in 2018. He was a 2-pitch pitcher who could dominate in shorter spurts. And he was a big part of their late season success in that role. It's also why he can't just be penciled in to make 35 starts and pitch 200+ innings in 2019. There is a way to have him be one of your stalwarts from Opening Day right on through October while throwing 150-160 innings though.

 

Are you mixing up Burnes with Woodruff?

 

I thought Burnes has four pitches that are at least ML average.

 

Whereas, I thought Woodruff is maybe a guy that might get dinged up hard the third time through a lineup.

 

Nope. Burnes is further along than Woodruff though. Burnes certainly does not have 4 pitches MLB average or higher just yet. He hasn't even reached the point of using his 4th pitch (changeup) in the majors much less gotten it to the level of being an MLB average pitch.

 

He IS one of the best initial out getters on the team however. And he's definitely got a shot to be a guy who goes longer than most going forward. I'm less sure that Woodruff will be more than a "once through guy" (OTG) but I still have that hope for him as well.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Burnes has 4 pitches and is almost definitely a starter in 2019.

 

There's simply no way he can be in the traditional sense. Unless you want to watch him shut down come September. I agree he's an initial out-getter. It's probably safe to say he's a 2.5-3 pitch pitcher right now with projectable ability to be a 4 pitch pitcher. He's not a 4-pitch pitcher today. When we talk about the future model with your best guys throwing 150 innings, Burnes is definitely one of those guys.

[sveumrules]

Burnes threw 58.7% fastballs, 34.2% sliders & 6.8% curves this year in MLB, so yes, essentially a two pitch pitcher.

[buckybrewer232]

Burnes is going to be a starter next season, the organization has stated that publicly multiple times. I'm not sure why people keep saying the Brewers need to make a decision on whether to keep him in the pen or not. They have already stated their decision. The only way he's not in the rotation to start the season is if he's injured or totally sucks in Spring Training.

 

Also, very unlikely that Miley will be a Brewer next season. Someone will overpay him now and Stearns is smart enough to avoid that. I fully expect him to scrounge the market for another reclamation project or two similar to Miley on cheap/minor league deals.

 

Woodruff I would move to the rotation and Guerra permanently to the bullpen. Anderson might get traded, but Davies probably sticks around to see if he can bounce back. I don't see any need to deal or sign a SP that people consider a "TOR" guy. The cost is not worth it based on all the options the Brewers already have.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Burnes threw 58.7% fastballs, 34.2% sliders & 6.8% curves this year in MLB, so yes, essentially a two pitch pitcher.

 

Yet he's boldly proclaimed to be a 4-pitch pitcher when he's barely thrown 3. He was dominant and ready for the role he was called upon for in 2018 because he could get through 3 innings with two pitches. He got the ability to improve his curve and change but many of the best arms in the game fail to pull it off. What teams are starting to realize is why bang your head against the wall trying to make these guys perfect 3-4 pitches when they can almost ALL dominate with their best 1-2 in shorter spurts. You still need some to be able to go longer than 3 innings. Those will be the guys who have 3 or more MLB pitches. I expect Burnes to be one of those guys.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Burnes is going to be a starter next season, the organization has stated that publicly multiple times. I'm not sure why people keep saying the Brewers need to make a decision on whether to keep him in the pen or not. They have already stated their decision. The only way he's not in the rotation to start the season is if he's injured or totally sucks in Spring Training.

 

True. My guess right now is as part of a piggyback combo. He's an initial out-getter for sure. They'll have a rigid plan for him.

[pacopete4]

Burnes threw 58.7% fastballs, 34.2% sliders & 6.8% curves this year in MLB, so yes, essentially a two pitch pitcher.

 

Yet he's boldly proclaimed to be a 4-pitch pitcher when he's barely thrown 3.

 

Because stats are deceiving. Relieving and starting are a totally different approach. It's the same as guy barking about Hader. Yes, he would be fastball dominant but he definitely would mix in his other pitches more often.

[Roderick]

Burnes threw 58.7% fastballs, 34.2% sliders & 6.8% curves this year in MLB, so yes, essentially a two pitch pitcher.

 

Not really a pertinent stat. If you know you are only pitching two innings, obviously you are going to throw only your best pitches. I assume it would be more of a mixture if he knew the goal was 6-7 innings of work.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Burnes threw 58.7% fastballs, 34.2% sliders & 6.8% curves this year in MLB, so yes, essentially a two pitch pitcher.

 

Yet he's boldly proclaimed to be a 4-pitch pitcher when he's barely thrown 3.

 

Because stats are deceiving. Relieving and starting are a totally different approach. It's the same as guy barking about Hader. Yes, he would be fastball dominant but he definitely would mix in his other pitches more often.

 

Exactly. He's on record saying that if he were starting, he'd be using his change-up. Basically scrapped it working out of the pen.

[tmwiese55]

Right, both Burnes and Woodruff have a change up the would be using if they were starting. Woodruff did use it here and there. Making a guess this far out is obviously a fools errand, but i'd guess Burnes opens the year as a starter and Woodruff takes the Burnes BP role and waits his turn to start when someone else gets hurt. Woodruff could also be one to stash in AAA at times to keep his inning down and stretched out to come up when someone gets hurt. Peralta is obviously a candidate for that as well.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

They had him working on his curve and change in AAA to the detriment to his numbers. They finally determined he'd be of better use to dominate out of relief with 2 pitches in the majors. He just hadn't made enough progress yet on those 2 pitches. There's no doubt he's going to be furthered pushed to be more than a dominant reliever. He still needs more work on his secondary offerings to be one of your innings leaders. I do believe he'll get there.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Burnes has 4 pitches and is almost definitely a starter in 2019.

 

There's simply no way he can be in the traditional sense. Unless you want to watch him shut down come September. I agree he's an initial out-getter. It's probably safe to say he's a 2.5-3 pitch pitcher right now with projectable ability to be a 4 pitch pitcher. He's not a 4-pitch pitcher today. When we talk about the future model with your best guys throwing 150 innings, Burnes is definitely one of those guys.

 

Well, you're going to be disappointed. Because he is a starter in 2019 unless he is hurt, or implodes in March.

 

He is a 4-pitch pitcher and has been for a while, read any scouting report on him. When you are getting 3-6 outs per game you are not going to have a 4-pitch distribution so his 2018 pitch splits are useless for that discussion.

 

But the team has stated he is a starter. So I don't know why this is a thing.

[Jose Cardenal1]

I think Stearns needs to really make an effort to create a force with the offense.

 

They really need another contact bat. Moustakas and Schoop weren't guys that fit the profile of what they want long-term. They were what was available at the deadline at a price the Brewers were comfortable with. If the Dodgers hadn't trumped the Brewers offer for Machado, it's very likely neither would have been Brewers. I expect both to be gone and the resources instead directed at someone or someones who better fit the mold of defense and putting the ball in play.

 

 

Agree with this sentiment. How about we don't bring back Moose or Schoop and instead sign Michael Brantley and Jed Lowrie. Braun would then play mostly 1B in a platoon with Thames or Shaw. Aguilar could then be moved as part of a package for a good player either a SP or Realmuto. Does an Aguilar, Pina, Davies & M.Diplan & T. Lutz get Realmuto?

 

With Shaw being able to play 3B/2b/1B, Lowrie 3B,SS,2B and Perez everywhere, it really would give the team a lot flexibility both day to day and within games. The addition of Brantley would add more "professional" AB's into a lineup that really needs it and create a table setting monster with him, Cain and Yellich at the top. Plus you would have a starting OF of guys who have or can play CF. Should cover good ground.

[KeithStone53151]

Burnes threw 58.7% fastballs, 34.2% sliders & 6.8% curves this year in MLB, so yes, essentially a two pitch pitcher.

 

Wow, this couldn't possibly be lazier. Actually yes it could, you could say "well...I've only ever seen him throw 2 pitches so.....". But come on man. Every scouting report that exists says that Burnes throws 4 pitches. Every single one. Clearly he ditched the change temporarily because you don't need a 4th pitch to get through 2-3 inning stints. And I find it frustrating that this is the exact same argument I had with many on Hader last year, when you all said he was a 1 pitch pitcher despite mountains of evidence to the contrary. Now in one years time Hader magically became to a 2 pitch pitcher, but how could that be you all definitively said he was a 1 pitch guy? And I'd bet that improving his changeup will be a priority this offseason...

 

None of these 23-25 year old pitchers are finished products right now. It is incredibly common for very good starting pitchers to be very fastball heavy early in their career with one primary secondary pitch...and develop the others over time. Kershaw, Scherzer, Sale, Price etc...they were all heavy fastball guys and threw 1 secondary far more than the other. They put the finishing touches on their other secondaries at the mlb level and became elite. Maybe Burnes isn't elite, but he's shown the big fastball and plus slider/cutter as well as a very solid curve when he's needed it. I would bet you'll see both his curve and change thrown significantly more in a starting role next year.

[jonescm128]

From what I have seen from Stearns so far, he will not be paying for elite pitching. Whether that is money or prospect capital, I don't think he is going to do it. Everyone will be calling for the Brewers to sign Corbin or Evoaldi this offseason but its not going to happen. Pitchers are too volatile for a small market team like the Brewers to throw a lot of money or prospects at. If there are big acquisitions it will be for hitters.

 

I think the future of the Brewers will be to draft and develop pitching and spend on hitting when its needed. That is much more sustainable.

[MrTPlush]

From what I have seen from Stearns so far, he will not be paying for elite pitching.

 

Yah, he didn't go get it when it looked like a blatant need and easily could have had a WS birth in the end. He instead got hitting in the OF last winter (something everyone thought we didn't need). I don't know why now he would go get an elite starter.

[reillymcshane]

Burnes threw 58.7% fastballs, 34.2% sliders & 6.8% curves this year in MLB, so yes, essentially a two pitch pitcher.

 

Burnes specifically said he will throw four pitches if he goes back to starting.

 

“I mixed in the curveball and slider out of the pen … obviously we didn’t throw the changeup much because we didn’t need a fourth pitch,” he said. “I’d mix it more in as a starter.

 

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2018/10/21/brandon-woodruff-corbin-burnes-showcase-potential-2019-brewers-rotation/1694782002/

 

I'm not saying he will be effective as a starter, just that using the data for his time as a reliever does not reflect on how he would pitch in the rotation.

[reillymcshane]

1. Get a catcher to platoon with Pena. Wilson Ramos would be sweet. Kratz is not the answer. I'm fine giving the guy a job at AAA as depth, but not the big league roster.

2. Determine if you want to have Schoop as your 2B in 2019. I am skeptical after his 2018 season, but he was very good just a year ago. The price of $9M+ might help us make this decision. The lure of Schoop putting up his 2017 numbers (.290+BA, 30+ HR) might be too hard to pass up. Otherwise, add a one year stop-gap player. Dozier, Murphy and Harrison are few options. There are some other guys out there as well. All these guys have their warts (age, injuries, etc.), so there's no perfect situation. Hiura may be an option by season's end.

3. Figure out what's up with Domingo Santana. I just don't know. A 30 HR hitting RF would be nice to have - I just don't know if that guy is coming back.

4. Resign Miley to a shorter term deal. Hopefully, two years. Maybe have an option if it's necessary. I'm happy checking in on Patrick Corbin, but he's going to be the top pitcher on the market (barring Kershaw reaching FA), and will just get way too much cash and too many years.

5. Let Soria and Moose become FAs. $10M for a reliever is just a lot of money - especially one who's not that great. Moose just doesn't have a position.

6. Don't tender contracts to Jennings, Cedeno. Neither is that good. It's not a big deal to keep either, but there are other options who will be cheaper.

 

The rest of the roster is good.

 

C - Pina

1B - Aguilar/Thames - I'd keep Thames in case Aguilar plays more like the post-all-star game Jesus. Thames can still contribute as a PH and occasional starter, and he provides valuable depth if Aguilar falters or is hurt. If a trade was worked out for Thames this off season, I'd want to make sure there was a decent fallback available in case Aguilar struggled.

SS - Arcia with Dubon as a fallback.

3B - Shaw - His struggles against lefties were troublesome, but he still hit 30 HR and played good defense. Just keep him and hope he can rebound a bit.

OF - Yelich, Braun, Cain are set. Again, not sure about Santana. If Domingo is traded, then a solid reserve is needed.

SP - Chacin, Anderson, Burnes, Davies, Miley (while Anderson and Davies had their issues last season, they have shown the ability to do well, and I think they can provide solid production, which is really important over a long season).

RP - Jeffress, Hader, Torres-Costa, Barnes, Knebel, Guerra, T. Williams, Woodruff

Peralta or Woodruff can step into the rotation as needed. Peralta may need to start at AAA to work on his control, but he'll likely be up sooner than later as injuries or someone else's ineffectiveness comes into play. He could also work his way into the bullpen if the club elects to move him there.

 

Big things are depth and financial flexibility. The team's payroll is going to rise with all the arby cases, so avoiding big contracts on luxuries (like Soria) and focusing on our homegrown talent is critical. We add a few 2nd tier FAs, but nothing more.

 

To win, this team needs to take some chances on young players. It's just the way baseball works for a small market club.

[jjfanec]

Will there be room for Woodruff, Burnes, and Peralta in the rotation? If not one will be great out of the pen. I could easily see one being packaged in the right deal. The Brewers have the ammo to make a big splash if Stearns wants to give up young talent (one of the pitchers, Huira, Ray). They have the ammo to strengthen part of the roster from depth (Anderson, Davies, Thames, Santana, Broxton). It will be a very interesting off-season.