2018-10-20 (NLCS Game #7): Dodgers (Buehler) at Brewers (Chacín) 7:09 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 5-1 -- 2018 Season Comes to a Close]

[Bulldogboy]

Disagree. Bunting has its place. Getting a guy to 2nd or 3rd with a bunt, especially with a pitcher or low OBP guy to turn the lineup over, is needed especially when top notch pitching is on the hill. For the big inning, no, bunting has no place, I'll agree with you. You are talking about one run. Having a contact hitter or three on your bench to hit the ball when a guy is at 3rd has its place, as well. In Game 7, I agree with you. It's not why we lost.

 

 

You are simply wrong. A runner on 2nd with no outs vs a runner on 3rd with 1 out is a 4% increase in a chance to score a single run. The odds with a runner on 1st vs runner on 2nd are similar. So you have to be successful with the bunt over 90% of the time for it to be a valid strategy. It is extremely rare for this to be the case. Bunting in the current game of baseball is a huge mistake unless you have a pitcher up or an elite bunter up.

I don't think bunting is the issue but you have to hit a ground ball on the right side. Hit a flyball. Fundamental baseball.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Do whatever it takes to get Paul Goldschmidt, bring up Keston Hiura, who very hopefully pans out, get rid of Aguilar, get rid of Schoop, and this offense should be way more efficient. Not sure about Moustakas. Arcia needs to take that mojo into 2019

 

No scenario allows for acquiring PG without giving up Hiura. We shot our bullets this year.

 

Never say never - this Brewer roster probably needs to make a few deals using current 40 man roster players to make sense for next year...despite reaching Game 7 of the NLCS, I anticipate Steams making alot of moves again this offseason while trying to keep the young pitching talent around.

[NievesNoNO]

I agree, there's a lot to be optimistic about but losing at home in a game 7, regardless of opponent and situation is super disappointing. It was all right there for the taking.

 

Starting pitching still matters.

 

That would be fine if we had those but we don’t. At least not WS caliber starters. No one is going to take you seriously if you are trotting out Chacin and especially Gio in a championship series. That’s why Counsel had to get creative with the hand he was dealt.

 

Had the offense been even averag it would have worked too.

 

I'm not arguing that they should've played it differently. In fact, Counsel did a great job and did what you're supposed to do. Manage to the team's strengths. I'm simply saying when it mattered the Dodgers were able to turn to two really good starters. I'm not disagreeing about the offense, but in playoff baseball, little things do matter. If you could swap out even 3 plays in the series it might be a sweep (for either side). It's so closely contested. I don't necessarily blame the offense, but yes one hit here or there and it's a completely different outcome. They might be one player, career year, lucky bounce, trade away or the opportunity may never come again in my lifetime. I don't think I'm even responding to your post anymore, lol.... anyway I'm super disappointed and optimistic at the same time. Everything in the organization is in place for another strong showing. The season, and then the post season is soooo long though. I think that what makes baseball the best sport and most rewarding to be a fan of. When it finally happens you know you've earned it.....still waiting.....

[rickh150]

Guys, the stars aligned this year. We are going to rue this game for a long time.

 

Not this game, but Game 2 and Game 4, yeah. I can't do the "great memories were made", "good job guys!" thing. Just can't. We are known for losing and we lost again. We should have won this series. The crowning achievement will be game 163, the rest of this will largely be forgotten. It's an '08, '11. An insignificant blip.

 

Wonderful season, heartbreaking Game 7..... I agree that Game 2 and 4, one of them, should have been a win. I don't agree with your take on how this season will be remembered..... significant September and October that was shocking and special.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

How many NLCS losers do you remember 5, 10 years later? Who last it last year or the year before? Yeah, exactly. Ultimately they are a blip. Tonight was their chance to go down in lore and they blew it. Again.

[DuWayne Steurer]

With strikeout rates being what they are in todays game, bunting is a waste, unless you're doing it with your pitcher. Putting a man on third with one out, to give ONE batter a chance to score a run with a grounder or flyball, just doesn't make sense. If I have a man on 2nd, give me 3 tries at a base hit, vs one try at a fly ball, and one try at a basehit. Strikeout rates are just too high in the current iteration of the game to count on sac flies and the like to make bunting a viable strategy.

[owbc]

I feel like this game really hurt our chances at winning the series.

[TURBO]

How many NLCS losers do you remember 5, 10 years later? Who last it last year or the year before? Yeah, exactly. Ultimately they are a blip. Tonight was their chance to go down in lore and they blew it. Again.

 

You may not remember other teams who lost in the NLCS, but we sure as hell will remember ours!

 

I get the negativity, we are all severely disappointed in the outcome, but compare this season to most of the recent ones, and this IS a very memorable season.

 

It wasn't perfect, not even close, but being a Brewers fan since their inception, it is for sure in the top 3 or 4 seasons ever.

 

I'm not accepting losing, but I am accepting the fact that we played deep into the playoffs, which is far better than not playing in October at all.

[Oxy]

Disagree. Bunting has its place. Getting a guy to 2nd or 3rd with a bunt, especially with a pitcher or low OBP guy to turn the lineup over, is needed especially when top notch pitching is on the hill. For the big inning, no, bunting has no place, I'll agree with you. You are talking about one run. Having a contact hitter or three on your bench to hit the ball when a guy is at 3rd has its place, as well. In Game 7, I agree with you. It's not why we lost.

 

 

You are simply wrong. A runner on 2nd with no outs vs a runner on 3rd with 1 out is a 4% increase in a chance to score a single run. The odds with a runner on 1st vs runner on 2nd are similar. So you have to be successful with the bunt over 90% of the time for it to be a valid strategy. It is extremely rare for this to be the case. Bunting in the current game of baseball is a huge mistake unless you have a pitcher up or an elite bunter up.

 

 

One has to account for the reality of the self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

In playoff baseball, every run matters, so every little tiny thing to get one run or to prevent one run from scoring makes a HUGE difference. Over the course of the regular season that just isn't the case--primarily because one both faces average pitching and one has to put average pitching on the mound FAR more often, so playing for a big inning makes more sense (like putting on the "contact play") A team simply cannot focus so singularly on every little thing during the regular season because they will burn out...and that is part of what makes baseball the greatest game in eternity.

 

To be more specific about bunting and the "self-fulfilling prophecy"--well, the more one de-emphasizes bunting (and other small ball skills), the more they become a poorer strategy, since the players playing in the game will not have been working on those types of skills. Which is fine, in the regular season....

 

But in playoff baseball, every run matters....

[clancyphile]

I agree, there's a lot to be optimistic about but losing at home in a game 7, regardless of opponent and situation is super disappointing. It was all right there for the taking.

 

Starting pitching still matters.

 

Nelson out all year, Suter lost for the season (and most of 2019) with a Tommy John at around the all-star break, Davies done for most the season, Anderson missed time, Miley missed time...

 

Yes, the bullpen was amazing. Yes, the bullpenning got the Crew to the NLCS. But by the NLCS, Johnny Wholestaff was gassed, Jeffress in particular. He thrown 83.1 innings, counting the post-season - his previous career high was 68.

[NievesNoNO]

I feel like this game really hurt our chances at winning the series.

 

That made me smile (sort of ), thanks

[OldSchoolSnapper]

How many NLCS losers do you remember 5, 10 years later? Who last it last year or the year before? Yeah, exactly. Ultimately they are a blip. Tonight was their chance to go down in lore and they blew it. Again.

 

You may not remember other teams who lost in the NLCS, but we sure as hell will remember ours!

 

I get the negativity, we are all severely disappointed in the outcome, but compare this season to most of the recent ones, and this IS a very memorable season.

 

It wasn't perfect, not even close, but being a Brewers fan since their inception, it is for sure in the top 3 or 4 seasons ever.

 

I'm not accepting losing, but I am accepting the fact that we played deep into the playoffs, which is far better than not playing in October at all.

 

Better than not playing in October, sure, but I would have preferred the 5-1 loss yesterday when most people expected it. Something about this state that its teams must always string you along and then kill you.

[The stache]

There is almost no situation in baseball where a major league hitter bunting helps your chances to score a run unless you have a really fast runner and an elite bunter. This has nothing to do with why we lost.

 

You're right. That second run, giving the Dodgers a 2-1 lead, instead of making it a tie game, had nothing to do with Counsell pulling Chacin, and going to Hader in the third inning. Being behind, instead of being in a tied game, had nothing to do with the batters pressing at the plate.

 

In fact, I don't know why hitters ever try to bunt a batter over into scoring position. Just go up there swinging away from now on, guys!

 

[The stache]

Come on you guys. This whining is friggin pathetic. So easy to be a monday morning qb. It's been a fun season. Move on, be optimistic that we can improve

 

I've been optimistic that we could improve since I went to my first home game in 1979. At what point does the annual optimism just fall by the wayside? At some point, a franchise has to win. Instead, we've had decades of "wait until next year". I'm tired of people feeling the need to blow sunshine up my butt. We can spin all we want, but every year, we lose the last game of the season, and it's become incredibly deflating.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

There is no reason to be optimistic at this moment. The Dodgers kicked our crotch on our field. That was emotionally 2011 Game 6. Unexciting and uninspired.

 

Yeah, there is talent on the roster, there is also Chicago, St. Louis, Pittsburgh and hell, Cincinnati in our division. And yeah, we'd still have to beat the Dodgers.

 

There will be a lot of regression too. Can they get back? Yeah I guess it is possible. But highly, highly unlikely. The Cubs and Dodgers at a minimum are favorites.

[The stache]

You are simply wrong. A runner on 2nd with no outs vs a runner on 3rd with 1 out is a 4% increase in a chance to score a single run. The odds with a runner on 1st vs runner on 2nd are similar. So you have to be successful with the bunt over 90% of the time for it to be a valid strategy. It is extremely rare for this to be the case. Bunting in the current game of baseball is a huge mistake unless you have a pitcher up or an elite bunter up.

 

So Machado is an elite bunter then? Good to know. Musta been one of those "extremely rare" cases.

[MrTPlush]

Haha the Dodgers booed Machado during their celebration.

 

That is why I thought it was so stupid from the start. He got the last laugh and I can’t help but chuckle. Worry about winning games not some douche just trying to get in everyone’s head.

 

Shows the Dodgers are a pathetic team though. Any normal team would sweep anything to do with the POS play under a carpet and ignore it.

[valpocrewsader]

This was a wasted opportunity. An opportunity that comes along very rarely. There is reason to be optimistic about next year but next year is not guaranteed to even be a good season. They had one game at home to get a W and go to the World Series, and couldn't get it done. This one will hurt for the rest of my lifetime.

 

Good post. Every year there will be new challenges, relentless competition, etc, and we somehow navigated to get so close this year. And had our chance at home. And we score 1 run. And Jeffress struggles AGAIN. Ugghh. Even if we have a good team going forward, we could go years without making the playoffs and especially an NLCS clincher.

 

I didn't even want to win it all, just the NL pennant and the WS appearance. Which is sad to admit, but true. Sigh.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Jeffress was salt in the wound and nothing more. After we started playing the "put a guy on 2nd then fart three times" game I knew where this was headed. Strategy didn't matter tonight. Talent won in the end.

[The stache]

With strikeout rates being what they are in todays game, bunting is a waste, unless you're doing it with your pitcher. Putting a man on third with one out, to give ONE batter a chance to score a run with a grounder or flyball, just doesn't make sense. If I have a man on 2nd, give me 3 tries at a base hit, vs one try at a fly ball, and one try at a basehit. Strikeout rates are just too high in the current iteration of the game to count on sac flies and the like to make bunting a viable strategy.

 

Maybe if batters were proficient in situational hitting, strikeout rates would be lower? We get a guy on base, and Brewers hitters come up there trying to knock the ball into the seats. When they fail to do so, they whiff at pitchers six inches above the strike zone, or bouncing in the dirt (see Moustakas and Aguilar). Adjust the approach like Anthony Rizzo did against us in the one game playoff. Behind in the count, I think it was 1-2, with a runner on base, he choked up on the bat, sacrificing the home run in order to foul pitches off, and force the pitcher to throw him what he wanted. When was the last time a Brewer bat came up to the plate with that kind of approach? Rizzo ultimately fouled 8 or 9 pitches off, and while I don't recall what he did, he worked the count, and increased the pitcher's pitch count in doing so. If he's successful, his team scores. Even if he just makes contact, and doesn't reach safely, he moves a runner over, which is a hell of a lot more than a strikeout does. If nothing else, the pitcher on the mound is out of the game that much sooner.

 

We look at metrics, and say, "this doesn't make sense". Well, if batters attained a more team friendly approach at the plate, strikeout rates wouldn't be what they are. Aguilar whiffed four times tonight swinging at crap that a high school batter knows to lay off of.

[PinaMadness]

One game at home to get to the World Series for the first time since 1982. What does the offense do?

 

1 run scored. 7 hits. No walks. 14 strikeouts.

 

Pathetic. Sorry, just pathetic.

No walks. Wow. All the pressure on a rookie starter and they never even made him sweat.

 

That pitcher of theirs is gonna be a good one.

 

I hope there is a change in our hitting coach. The approach by a lot of our guys left a lot to be desired all season and it came home to roost big time tonight.

Lack of offensive discipline has been a problem for not only years, but decades. I don't know why switching hitting coaches would work now. Not that I think they shouldn't.

[Bulldogboy]

Johnathan Schoop pinch hit tonight with two men on down a run. Think about that folks. Why?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Jeffress was salt in the wound and nothing more. After we started playing the "put a guy on 2nd then fart three times" game I knew where this was headed. Strategy didn't matter tonight. Talent won in the end.

 

Chacin matches up talent-wise with Hill and maybe Ryu. Not Buehler or Kershaw. He was put in a tough situation tonight where he would have to pretty much be perfect. He wasn't, and a monkey wrench was thrown in the plan for tonight. You can have the best pen in the world, but you still have to start someone.

[The stache]

Jeffress was salt in the wound and nothing more. After we started playing the "put a guy on 2nd then fart three times" game I knew where this was headed. Strategy didn't matter tonight. Talent won in the end.

 

Chacin matches up talent-wise with Hill and maybe Ryu. Not Buehler or Kershaw. He was put in a tough situation tonight where he would have to pretty much be perfect. He wasn't, and a monkey wrench was thrown in the plan for tonight. You can have the best pen in the world, but you still have to start someone.

 

Agreed.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Johnathan Schoop pinch hit tonight with two men on down a run. Think about that folks. Why?

 

Well, because despite the disaster that trade was, he IS a good hitter and could have had a hit at any moment. But the reason he was picked was obvious. It was super early in the game, close, and you don't want to use your best option there.

 

But really, I'm beyond nitpicking in-game decisions. There is no shame in losing to that team, on paper we were badly overmatched. I am not upset with the performance; I am just depressed that I don't think this franchise will ever get it done. It is just too hard for a team like them to succeed. You have to basically get lucky and finish the job when the stars align, and that was this year.

 

Good night guys. I am not around much at all in the offseason. I need to get away from this now for a very long time.