Trading for Paul Goldschmidt

[adambr2]

I don't get the ripping Braun going back to 3rd. His second half stats were great, what more do you want considering Jesus was falling apart and who else was doing so well offensively in that stretch to put in that spot? now, planning on him to be 3rd for next year, that's a different call. But are you saying they should have had Jesus stay there hitting .230 or whatever he did second half?

 

Also, add in the Yelich baserunning blunder vs LA and his avg/obp goes to 275/322 in that series. Again, who hit so well vs LAD that this was at all the worst of their problems? Add in Yelich's two baserunning blunders for the playoffs and his avg/obp goes to 333/363.

 

Yeah I mean I guess you can make a reasonable argument that anything else they would have done probably wouldn't have made much difference anyway since no one else was really doing a ton besides Arcia.

 

But yeah going forward I'd be much more comfortable with Braun at #6 or so in more of a supportive offensive role; obviously that will depend on what we do in the offseason.

[3and2Fastball]

Moving Braun back to hitting 3rd was the right move, but it was more a reflection of not having a better choice, than any sort of affirmation of Braun's resurgence. I'd have to look, but I'm fairly sure that (based on season stats) Braun was the worst 3 hole hitter among any postseason team this year.

[pacopete4]

Braun in the 3rd spot was the right move. We needed him to channel his inner MVP during the playoffs but he was just good. Couple that with almost everyone around him not doing their part and you get the offense we got in the playoffs. Going forward, if we can get Braun down to the 5-hole, it will be because Stearns is doing his magic again and providing this lineup with game changing batters. It is either that or the Brewers need to get Braun to buy in shortening the bat and his approach to the ball and becoming a different hitter than he has ever been. He could do it, but it is doubtful well, because, ego. Either way, as the original poster, it is clear to us all we could use a Goldschmidt type batter (who doesnt?) in this lineup if we want to get real serious about this thing.

[MrTPlush]

If Braun is in the 3-hole next year Stearns failed us in the offseason. Braun is a decent bat overall (some pretty rough stretches, but had a nice hot streak to end the year), but that should not be that high in the lineup. Braun is more like a #6 (#7 if we acquire Realmuto) at this stage in his career. We need someone a little more consistently reliable than him to produce runs and get on base.

 

The guy is 35 years old, average is nothing to sneeze at. It just isn't #3 spot worthy.

[adambr2]

Braun in the 3rd spot was the right move. We needed him to channel his inner MVP during the playoffs but he was just good. Couple that with almost everyone around him not doing their part and you get the offense we got in the playoffs. Going forward, if we can get Braun down to the 5-hole, it will be because Stearns is doing his magic again and providing this lineup with game changing batters. It is either that or the Brewers need to get Braun to buy in shortening the bat and his approach to the ball and becoming a different hitter than he has ever been. He could do it, but it is doubtful well, because, ego. Either way, as the original poster, it is clear to us all we could use a Goldschmidt type batter (who doesnt?) in this lineup if we want to get real serious about this thing.

 

Quite frankly, Braun is one of the most upgradeable spots on offense behind catcher and 2B, and probably just catcher after Hiura comes up. I don't include Arcia because he's not going anywhere, we'll live with what he gives on offense as long as we have his glove.

 

I realize because of his contract and the fact that he wouldn't provide much value as a bench player, he isn't going anywhere. But if we're talking upgrades from the Diamondbacks, wouldn't David Peralta be an offensive upgrade? He'd be more controllable, and cost loss.

 

Guess I just don't see why people assume Aguilar is a fluke, and think Braun just deserves a spot. Over the entire season, Aguilar was the better offensive player. No question. Why are people assuming Aguilar won't return to his 1st half form, but think Braun at age 35 is going to be fine?

 

I don't really buy that Braun is just going to shorten the bat, change his approach, and get better. I don't see a lot of ego right now and think he buys into the team vision. If they felt that way, I think there's enough mutual respect where that conversation would have already taken place. I think age and decline has far more to do with it than ego.

 

If Ryan is batting anywhere higher than #5 to start 2019, we didn't do nearly enough to improve the offense.

[tmwiese55]

Adam is pretty spot on. The goal should be to add a couple more bats so that Braun should be batting lower, like when Jesus was going well. The Shaws and Moose's are just as streaky and hit or miss as Braun has been, plus have the drastic split problems.

 

To his point, the reason we don't discuss it is that first we know due to contract he's going to be here. Second, the likely replacement for him if he struggles should be here already in Santana.

[coolhandluke121]

There's not a reliable 3-hole of clean-up hitter on the team right now. There are lots of guys who have looked up to the task for maybe half of the time over their last 2 seasons, but most of them are short of even that standard. I suppose you could make a case for Aguilar seizing the spot again, but it's hard to reconcile what he did in the first half with what he did in the 2nd half and for 10 years in the minor leagues. The problem is, it's not easy to find an upgrade, and it's not like they'd be the only team hitting 5/6 guys in the 3/4 spots. They'd be one of the only contenders doing so though.

 

Choi may have been better than any of them this year.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

There's not a reliable 3-hole of clean-up hitter on the team right now. There are lots of guys who have looked up to the task for maybe half of the time over their last 2 seasons, but most of them are short of even that standard. I suppose you could make a case for Aguilar seizing the spot again, but it's hard to reconcile what he did in the first half with what he did in the 2nd half and for 10 years in the minor leagues. The problem is, it's not easy to find an upgrade, and it's not like they'd be the only team hitting 5/6 guys in the 3/4 spots. They'd be one of the only contenders doing so though.

 

Choi may have been better than any of them this year.

 

Hard to find fault with them trading Choi. Aguilar was hotter than ever in June, Braun was logging some time at 1B, and Thames was about to be activated from the DL. Choi wanted his shot in the majors, and he probably wasn't going to get it as the 4th string 1B. Plus the Brewers needed a 2B, and Brad Miller probably seemed like the best option available at the time.

[pacopete4]

I assume Aguilar won't return to his first half form because to me it is not realistic. He's an .800 OPS guy for me. It's not that he is a terrible player (although I cannot stand his lack of hustle) it just makes more sense. Braun might be upgradable but with roster construction, it probably isn't going to happen, so the focus could be put on Aguilar.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Yelich can and should be your 3-hole guy. It just requires either a high on base leadoff type to knock Cain down to the 2 hole or a high contact 2 hole guy with Cain remaining at the top. They might even have their #2 hole guy soon to be ready in the wings in the form of Keston Huira. Regardless of whose names appear next to #1 and #2 on the lineup card, Yelich is about as prototypical #3 as they come.

[wallus]

Yelich can and should be your 3-hole guy. It just requires either a high on base leadoff type to knock Cain down to the 2 hole or a high contact 2 hole guy with Cain remaining at the top. They might even have their #2 hole guy soon to be ready in the wings in the form of Keston Huira. Regardless of whose names appear next to #1 and #2 on the lineup card, Yelich is about as prototypical #3 as they come.

 

I would rather our best hitter getting more at bats rather than caring about being a prototypical #3 hitter.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Yelich can and should be your 3-hole guy. It just requires either a high on base leadoff type to knock Cain down to the 2 hole or a high contact 2 hole guy with Cain remaining at the top. They might even have their #2 hole guy soon to be ready in the wings in the form of Keston Huira. Regardless of whose names appear next to #1 and #2 on the lineup card, Yelich is about as prototypical #3 as they come.

 

I would rather our best hitter getting more at bats rather than caring about being a prototypical #3 hitter.

 

I would rather he come up to the plate with more runners on base.

[adambr2]

I assume Aguilar won't return to his first half form because to me it is not realistic. He's an .800 OPS guy for me. It's not that he is a terrible player (although I cannot stand his lack of hustle) it just makes more sense. Braun might be upgradable but with roster construction, it probably isn't going to happen, so the focus could be put on Aguilar.

 

Why .800? He was .890 this year and .837 last year. It's not like he's at a declining age or anything. Yes it's probably unlikely for him to go back to his first half form. But I think he's more than likely a pretty good hitter who wore down in 2018 with daily playing time.

 

If Yelich was a free agent after 2019 and we wanted to take a shot, I'd say go for it. But I think we have to look at this from a big picture perspective. Is Goldschmidt an upgrade for this year, certainly. But for what he'd cost in trade capital and then payroll cost if we kept him, no I don't think its worth it. I seriously doubt he would go for a 5/110 type extension anyway and then we'd be back to square one. Even if he did, I have some major concerns about a 5 year extension for a then 32 year old first baseman.

 

I think if we could land Wilson Ramos and Jed Lowrie we'd be in pretty good shape with what we can upgrade offensively, and we'd get to keep our trade pieces.

[pacopete4]

I assume Aguilar won't return to his first half form because to me it is not realistic. He's an .800 OPS guy for me. It's not that he is a terrible player (although I cannot stand his lack of hustle) it just makes more sense. Braun might be upgradable but with roster construction, it probably isn't going to happen, so the focus could be put on Aguilar.

 

Why .800? He was .890 this year and .837 last year. It's not like he's at a declining age or anything. Yes it's probably unlikely for him to go back to his first half form. But I think he's more than likely a pretty good hitter who wore down in 2018 with daily playing time.

 

If Yelich was a free agent after 2019 and we wanted to take a shot, I'd say go for it. But I think we have to look at this from a big picture perspective. Is Goldschmidt an upgrade for this year, certainly. But for what he'd cost in trade capital and then payroll cost if we kept him, no I don't think its worth it. I seriously doubt he would go for a 5/110 type extension anyway and then we'd be back to square one. Even if he did, I have some major concerns about a 5 year extension for a then 32 year old first baseman.

 

I think if we could land Wilson Ramos and Jed Lowrie we'd be in pretty good shape with what we can upgrade offensively, and we'd get to keep our trade pieces.

 

I tend to believe that much of his stat line this season was a fluke. In over 4,000 minor league at bats his stat line was .271/.348/.454/.802. In the end, arguing about it doesn't do much because you're a believer and I'm not. I feel as though we will have pages full of IGT next season questioning what Stearns was doing by not being proactive with Aguilar and trying to move him or upgrade that position.

[adambr2]

I don't see it. His BABIP was lower than 2017, so it's not like he was just getting lucky. The minor league stat line is a fair argument but players can change and evolve over time.

 

As you said, you're just not a believer so we're not going to agree on it, but you would at least agree it isn't worth giving up Keston Hiura for what might just be a year of Goldschmidt, wouldn't you? Or Corbin Burnes. These guys are deal breakers even for Goldie, don't you think?

 

Goldschmidt is bound to be a hot commodity if the Diamondbacks even do dangle him out there and I have major doubts that they will. If they do I'm guessing the prospect laden offers will win out. If he's not available I'm not sure what else is really out there that is pretty much a slam dunk guaranteed upgrade from Aguilar.

 

And even though I like Aguilar more than you I do have doubts too, I just happen to not think the cost is worth it. The more I think about it I would probably keep Thames around as insurance, he still had a 106 OPS+ in a down year and should be due for positive regression. At the very least I think you'd get decent results from a Aguilar/Thames platoon.

 

Between Braun, Santana, Thames and Aguilar I'd expect good years out of at least 2 which is enough.

[tmwiese55]

And assuming Thames is still here or you have a good enough infielder for Shaw to play some 1B, or Braun can play some 1B vs RH then you could go back to more of a platoon or shared role like it was to start the year. Jesus again had about a 30 point split in obp and 55ish split in OPS. It would also keep him fresh so hopefully he doesn't tail off like this year. I'd assume it wouldn't be as strict as it was to begin with him only playing vs LH but one or two games per week vs RH to keep him fresh.

[JosephC]

Yelich can and should be your 3-hole guy. It just requires either a high on base leadoff type to knock Cain down to the 2 hole or a high contact 2 hole guy with Cain remaining at the top. They might even have their #2 hole guy soon to be ready in the wings in the form of Keston Huira. Regardless of whose names appear next to #1 and #2 on the lineup card, Yelich is about as prototypical #3 as they come.

 

I would rather our best hitter getting more at bats rather than caring about being a prototypical #3 hitter.

 

I would rather he come up to the plate with more runners on base.

 

This would have been the ideal year for the Brewers to bat the pitcher 8th. In hindsight, I'm actually really surprised Counsell didn't do this. But in fairness, Arcia would have been the guy hitting 9th and he didn't hit any better than a pitcher for about 2/3rds of the season.

[pacopete4]

I don't see it. His BABIP was lower than 2017, so it's not like he was just getting lucky. The minor league stat line is a fair argument but players can change and evolve over time.

 

As you said, you're just not a believer so we're not going to agree on it, but you would at least agree it isn't worth giving up Keston Hiura for what might just be a year of Goldschmidt, wouldn't you? Or Corbin Burnes. These guys are deal breakers even for Goldie, don't you think?

 

Goldschmidt is bound to be a hot commodity if the Diamondbacks even do dangle him out there and I have major doubts that they will. If they do I'm guessing the prospect laden offers will win out. If he's not available I'm not sure what else is really out there that is pretty much a slam dunk guaranteed upgrade from Aguilar.

 

And even though I like Aguilar more than you I do have doubts too, I just happen to not think the cost is worth it. The more I think about it I would probably keep Thames around as insurance, he still had a 106 OPS+ in a down year and should be due for positive regression. At the very least I think you'd get decent results from a Aguilar/Thames platoon.

 

Between Braun, Santana, Thames and Aguilar I'd expect good years out of at least 2 which is enough.

 

If you check my poster history on just about any deal, I've been against shipping any of these guys off. I think I've written stay the course on about 50 posts. My original post was intended that if the Dbacks were selling off everything, that they might take younger prospects they feel have a high ceiling. To be honest, I'm not even sure I see the Dbacks selling off at this point so all of this probably is pretty pointless. I just feel we need a major boost to the offense and Goldschmidt would be that game changer at the expense of Aguilar. But again, it is probably not too realistic.

[Lathund]

Lineup construction has very little impact beyond the basics of putting your best hitters 1-5 and trying to stagger L/R somewhat. Having said that, Sabermetric lineup construction would say that Yelich is the ideal #2 hitter; I don't recall though if that's the ideal spot only when the pitcher bats 8th, or if it's true regardless. When you have such a good hitter though you can't really go wrong, has both the OBP and SLG to fit in at #1, #2 and #4. It's more to do with the players around them; Cain is perfect as a leadoff man, and Aguilar/Shaw suit the #4 spot so well that it makes #2 an easy choice.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm seeing an awful lot of smoke about a Goldschmidt to the Cardinals trade. Is anyone else seeing similar? I wonder what the Cardinals would do with Carpenter if this happens. He's a pretty bad 3b and 2b defensively...and that's one less spot for Jose Martinez to play. They could have a truly dreadful defense next year if this trade happens.

 

[tmwiese55]

IDK, maybe Martinez would go back to AZ, then STL plays Carpenter at 3B and live with it.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't know about you guys, but Goldschmidt going to the Cardinals would bother the crap out of me. Because he's good.

[bill hAll Star]

Jose Martinez has to be dealt to an AL team. He's that bad on defense.

[Lathund]

Jose Martinez batting stance makes me irrationally angry, so I hope he does gets traded to the AL so I won't have to see it as often. He's also a good hitter, so there's another reason right there.

[brewmann04]

Goldschmidt makes the cards much better.