Trading for Paul Goldschmidt

[tmwiese55]

I get that it seems that way due to how bad their struggling now. But overall: Cain kills lefties, Yeli was better vs lefties. Braun of course is always good vs lefties. Jesus as well. So 'roster building' it seemed to be fairly balanced other than Schoop crapping the bed completely so you're left playing Perez.

 

Yelich is 100 OPS points better against RHP's for his career. Only about 20 points this year, but that doesn't have nearly the same statistical significance. I don't really think you can use Braun and "always good" in the same sentence ever again, in any baseball context. Aguilar could be one of those guys who had a spike peak at prime age. That's not an unusual trajectory. He had a year that would make Eric Thames proud, though he did sustain his best hitting for longer than Thames last year.

 

I'm down to give all of them except Schoop another chance next year (even Hernan!), but whom they replace Schoop with is going to be a huge factor like you said. And if Moustakas is gone, you also probably want an LHB middle infielder option too.

 

Right, but when they built this plan they thought they had righties to handle this situation, that's all I was saying, that basically they were one RH IF short of being covered (and Schoop falling off that hard couldn't be foreseen). It's not like they were clueless to it all. And again, Braun's advanced stats vs lefties were top 10 in the whole league. Still, you can't bank on it due to the injuries and another year older. But, if Santana is fixed you have that covered for next year. And I know Schoop isn't a big splits vs LH guy, but to not have to play atrocious Shaw or Moose vs lefties it was still an improvement according to plan. Jesus, IDK what happened there, he just looks so different now than 2-3 months ago.

 

Also, think you're being a touch harsh on Braun in this series. He's 5/21 overall and was the only guy to show up in game 4. And in that 21, remember the 110 MPH rocket to 3B Turner who just covered his face and caught it, Yelich's base running blunder cost him a hit too since it counts as a FC. He has also had a gapper to RC in one of those games that would've scored a run but got chased down by a great catch. Has he been great, no, but he hasn't been awful either. Now specific to lefties, he was 0-4 vs the one RH starter. So now up to 5/17 vs lefties with a walk. 5/14 vs lefties if you take out the Kershaw in the shadows game. Again, nothing special and I grant I hate how often he's swung early in counts and that he has had a few head scratching bad ABs/Ks where you're shocked he looked that bad.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Who is a similar comp salary wise to Goldy? Would trading for him then signing a 5 yr 100 mil contract work? Pair him up with Robbie ray? The extension would be tough with Bruan on the team, but it’s possible. Like a poster on here said, he would transform this lineup. 300/400 avg obp guy with some pop. 900 or north ops. 31 years old. I hope and pray Aguilar isn’t our long term solution. Nice story but just don’t see it long term.

[tmwiese55]

It's risky given Goldy's age. But contract/salary wise he'd only overlap with Braun for 19 and 20. And Goldy's extension would only be one year overlap. If he only took 20 mil per year you could probably swing it. Especially if you backload it a bit. But even after Braun is off then you have close to 40 mil wrapped up in Goldy/Cain as they hit their mid 30s. Plus factor in the prospects you'd have to give up. Not sure you can take that risk. But considering their likely going to have all their pitching in arbitration salaries now is probably the time if any that you can swing for the fences on something like this.

 

Safer route is probably riding a Jesus and someone platoon or shared job so hopefully Jesus doesn't crash like this year. Top of my head it seems like we don't have any 1B legit prospects beating down the door though either.

[OnaBadger58]

Who is a similar comp salary wise to Goldy? Would trading for him then signing a 5 yr 100 mil contract work? Pair him up with Robbie ray? The extension would be tough with Bruan on the team, but it’s possible. Like a poster on here said, he would transform this lineup. 300/400 avg obp guy with some pop. 900 or north ops. 31 years old. I hope and pray Aguilar isn’t our long term solution. Nice story but just don’t see it long term.

Perhaps Jose Abreu? I view Abreu more of a discount version of Goldy, but he also hasn't had much talent around him in the recent years. Abreu is a FA and will be 32 next baseball season, so I'm not sure what his market will look like this offseason.

[Lathund]

I'm not too keen on the idea of giving up a lot for just one year of a player, no matter how good. Especially not in a position where we already have a pretty good set of options. Some combination of Aguilar, Braun, Shaw and Thames will provide good enough production there. Goldschmidt is obviously better than them, being arguably the best 1B in the majors (Him, Freeman and Votto are in a class of their own) and you get that better production from just one player. But because he's so very good even that one year will cost a lot. More than the upgrade in production is worth. An extension isn't impossible, but I think that 20m AAV won't be enough. Carlos Santana got 60m/3 (Plus an option year) at the same age, and Goldy is much, much better.

 

If we're gonna give up something of real value for a short-term upgrade, I'd do it where it'll have the greatest impact, i.e a position of weakness. Even finding a league-average or slightly above starter at 2B would improve us by almost as much as the difference between Aguilar and Goldy. And likely giving up less for it. 2B, a righty 3B, catcher, LHP are all better areas to target in a trade IMO.

[tmwiese55]

I'm not advocating this at all due to how bad that contract is. But given the OP's premise here, perhaps Votto would be a more logical move. First, he's already signed to the contract (whereas Goldy is not). Second, the contract is so bad that you shouldn't have to give up many legit prospects (AZ is gonna demand legit back) and if you do you would make CIN toss in money. Third, they should toss in many regardless to reduce the cost. Fourth, Reds aren't contending anytime soon whereas AZ is still kinda good. Fifth, Reds would probably want Thames based on what they've seen (JK).

 

Gets you that professional hitter and high contact, high OBP. Should be able to trust him as still good for at least the next 2-3 years. Just need enough money tossed in to make it palatable. Looks to me like he has 5/132 left on his deal, man, can't believe someone was dumb enough to give that.

[coolhandluke121]

I get that it seems that way due to how bad their struggling now. But overall: Cain kills lefties, Yeli was better vs lefties. Braun of course is always good vs lefties. Jesus as well. So 'roster building' it seemed to be fairly balanced other than Schoop crapping the bed completely so you're left playing Perez.

 

Yelich is 100 OPS points better against RHP's for his career. Only about 20 points this year, but that doesn't have nearly the same statistical significance. I don't really think you can use Braun and "always good" in the same sentence ever again, in any baseball context. Aguilar could be one of those guys who had a spike peak at prime age. That's not an unusual trajectory. He had a year that would make Eric Thames proud, though he did sustain his best hitting for longer than Thames last year.

 

I'm down to give all of them except Schoop another chance next year (even Hernan!), but whom they replace Schoop with is going to be a huge factor like you said. And if Moustakas is gone, you also probably want an LHB middle infielder option too.

 

Right, but when they built this plan they thought they had righties to handle this situation, that's all I was saying, that basically they were one RH IF short of being covered (and Schoop falling off that hard couldn't be foreseen). It's not like they were clueless to it all.

 

 

I'm not criticizing how the team was built. Like I said, I'd give all of them except Schoop another chance. I'm just saying that whereas it once appeared they should be fine against LHP's, it now appears to be a potential weakness because we might have hoped for a little too much from certain players.

 

ETA: I'd take a chance on Votto. That would represent a pretty reliable, consistent upgrade in the 3-hole. They're sitting on a whole bunch of 5/6 caliber hitters right now, and the consistency just isn't there.

[pacopete4]

I'm not advocating this at all due to how bad that contract is. But given the OP's premise here, perhaps Votto would be a more logical move. First, he's already signed to the contract (whereas Goldy is not). Second, the contract is so bad that you shouldn't have to give up many legit prospects (AZ is gonna demand legit back) and if you do you would make CIN toss in money. Third, they should toss in many regardless to reduce the cost. Fourth, Reds aren't contending anytime soon whereas AZ is still kinda good. Fifth, Reds would probably want Thames based on what they've seen (JK).

 

Gets you that professional hitter and high contact, high OBP. Should be able to trust him as still good for at least the next 2-3 years. Just need enough money tossed in to make it palatable. Looks to me like he has 5/132 left on his deal, man, can't believe someone was dumb enough to give that.

 

 

Votto still has six more years on his contract and will be getting paid $25M a year. That is not at all what I wanted in my original post. I do love me some Votto though.

[tmwiese55]

I'm not advocating this at all due to how bad that contract is. But given the OP's premise here, perhaps Votto would be a more logical move. First, he's already signed to the contract (whereas Goldy is not). Second, the contract is so bad that you shouldn't have to give up many legit prospects (AZ is gonna demand legit back) and if you do you would make CIN toss in money. Third, they should toss in many regardless to reduce the cost. Fourth, Reds aren't contending anytime soon whereas AZ is still kinda good. Fifth, Reds would probably want Thames based on what they've seen (JK).

 

Gets you that professional hitter and high contact, high OBP. Should be able to trust him as still good for at least the next 2-3 years. Just need enough money tossed in to make it palatable. Looks to me like he has 5/132 left on his deal, man, can't believe someone was dumb enough to give that.

 

 

Votto still has six more years on his contract and will be getting paid $25M a year. That is not at all what I wanted in my original post. I do love me some Votto though.

 

Gotcha, I guess I took the leap that you were then hoping to sign him for something like a 5/100 extension afterwards(thus making his contract similar-ish to Votto but he's way younger). I think someone threw that idea out through this somewhere at least

 

What I saw on Sportrac is 5/125 and the 6th year is team option with a 7 mil buyout. That's where i got 5/132. Maybe I read wrong.

 

CHL's last post, yea I get that for sure. We're on the same page.

[pacopete4]

I would gladly give PG an extension. If he would accept scratching his deal he has and just take a 5 year, $110M contract after we traded for him, that would take him through his 31-35 years of age. He's been a healthy guy and he's put up numbers in just about every season.

 

What I can't get behind is paying Votto into his early 40's so that makes it completely different for me.

[tmwiese55]

I would gladly give PG an extension. If he would accept scratching his deal he has and just take a 5 year, $110M contract after we traded for him, that would take him through his 31-35 years of age. He's been a healthy guy and he's put up numbers in just about every season.

 

What I can't get behind is paying Votto into his early 40's so that makes it completely different for me.

 

Yup, I agree. That's where the tradeoffs I threw out come in. Do they make it worth it? IMO they don't because that contract is so bad/risky. Well I guess until you start thinking about how much they'd kick back to us financially I suppose. And production wise one could probably convince themselves that either one of them can basically be trusted to be good for 2-3 more years then who knows. I know Votto is older, but he was still #1 in OBP this year in the NL so can't expect him to fall off completely right away. Jeez, I'm almost talking myself into it, haha.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

I would gladly give PG an extension. If he would accept scratching his deal he has and just take a 5 year, $110M contract after we traded for him, that would take him through his 31-35 years of age. He's been a healthy guy and he's put up numbers in just about every season.

 

What I can't get behind is paying Votto into his early 40's so that makes it completely different for me.

 

5 years 110 mil? I’m in! Go get em David!

[HiAndTight]

Not sure this really fits for either team to be honest. For Goldy you're talking a one year rental, so you're definitely all-in on 2020 and likely losing him after. I think Stearns would probably prefer a model of sustainability.

 

For the Diamondbacks if they're selling Goldy they're definitely going full fire sale. They're going to want a prospect laden return, not something centered around a 28 year old 1B coming off a career year. Probably matches them up better with someone like the Yankees, IMO.

 

 

It's the first full year OF his career...so it seems premature to say this was his career year. Aguilar is a guy who has power to all fields and in part time action two years ago and as a starter this year looks like a outstanding hitter. It seems like a lot of the people who warn about sample sizes on here seem to put more emphasis on a poor small sampling than the opposite.

 

I'm sure the D-backs would want more back for an MVP type bat, but Aguilar seems to be exactly like the type of guy they'd want. They have the talent to make a playoff push now. You could plug Aguilar in a have a great replacement for Goldshmidt.

 

But that's not the direction they're going if they're selling Goldschmidt, that's the thing. If Goldschmidt goes, it's likely a full fire sale.

 

And if Aguilar is indeed for real, why are we trading him + pieces for 1 year of Goldschmidt? He fits our necessary model of cost control perfectly.

 

 

Well, first of all, I'm not in favor of trading for Goldschmidt...I'd love to have him, but not given what it'd likely take in terms of prospects and money over Aguilar who's already here.

 

As for AZ not trying to win anymore if they move Goldschmidt, you often see teams move on from an elite player and move around resources and continue to be a contender. As long as they have pitching, they can compete. And they have a good core group of starters. In this scenario, from a D-backs view point, they trade Goldy, plug in Aguilar...a downgrade obviously, but one that has more team control and they can look to upgrade elsewhere. I personally think losing Corbin is going to be a bigger problem for them than losing Goldy in this hypothetical scenario...

[brewcrewdue80]

I dont follow a playoff contending team trading with another playoff contending players of same position that were big reasons to contending for playoffs in the first place. Goldy is staying with Arizona. Were there even grunblings that Arz wants to trade him?

 

As to this series LHB/RHB. Scope ruined this team by being completely useless, as I can now see why he was acquired. A bat to face the Dodgers. The Dodgers pitching absolutely matchex up perfectly to defeat the LHBs we had. Kershaw, Ryu, Wood, Urias..Im sure Im forgetting another..Madson? Was he lefty?

Scope should have been the RHB to start vs Moose or Shaw playing or Perez to combat that. Aguilar crapped the bed with runners on i the favorable LHP/RHB matchup.

 

1 RHB that can get on base better than .333 and I think its Santana returning over Braun in Of. Braun to 1b. Aguilar traded for any value.

[LouisEly]

I don't think Goldy is the guy either, but I agree, they need a middle of order RH bat going into next season.

Braun had a .879 OPS in the 2nd half. I think Braun and Aguilar qualify as middle of the order bats.

 

FWIW, Boston is in the World Series and according to B-R.com they had the worst production at C and 2nd worst production at 2B of any team in the majors (no, MIL wasn't worse at 2B, the Brewers were 18th in MLB at 2B).

 

The Brewers got to game 7 of the NLCS with what they had. I think you're overestimating what it takes to get back to the NLCS.

[3and2Fastball]

Ryan Braun hit .246/.336/.523 vs LHP in 2018. He is well into his decline, and should not be hitting in the top half of the lineup unless the Brewers continue to struggle to have RH power in the lineup.

 

I'd prefer not to overpay for one year of Goldschmidt, and doubt Stearns would go that route. I do like the thinking though because we really do need upgrades in RH power.

 

Aguilar hit .245/.324/.436 in the 2nd Half of 2018. That is terrible.

 

The lack of RH power on the roster is a real & legit problem. I don't know if Domingo Santana is the answer, but he sure looked good in his small sample of action in SEPT/OCT. He certainly deserves a lot of looks in Spring Training.

 

Is Goldschmidt that much better than Aguilar that it would be worth giving up Jesus's control plus probably more for one year of Goldy?

 

Yes, he is. But I think it'd take a heckuva lot more than Jesus to get Paul.

[long ball]

I question whether it's really important to sink in a lot of $$ or prospect capital into first base. Just look at the first baseman of the playoff teams:

 

Astros: Gurriel- Cuban FA signed for ~$10m/yr

Red Sox: Steve Pearce/Mitch Moreland platoon. Couple of cheap journeyman types.

Yankees: Bird/Walker/Voit pretty much a dumpster fire all year until they got lighting in a bottle with Voit

Indians: Yonder Alonso is just a cheap veteran

A's: Matt Olson is a solid young player, but never really a top prospect

 

Braves: Freeman is a legit franchise cornerstone type player

Cubs: Rizzo is also a legit franchise cornerstone type player

Brewers: Aguilar was a scrap heap pick up and Thames was a KBO signing for relatively cheap

Rockies: Ian Desmond is a highly paid veteran who is pretty worthless and they just stuck him at first base

Dodgers: Bellinger was a legit top prospect + Freese came in late as a cheap platoon bat.

 

So there are 2 legit awesome first basemen on this list while the most are sort of cheap young guys or bargain bin shopping. Then when you look at first basemen signed to big contracts they've basically crippled team payrolls: Hosmer, Pujols, Votto, Cabrera.

 

Basically my point is that you can find a cheap hitter anywhere or an aging veteran (Braun in this case) and stick them at first base while focusing resources on a position that much harder to find like CF, MI, 3b, or C.

[JosephC]

Braun finished the year with a .313 OBP and having a guy making that many outs from the third spot in the lineup really can hinder an offense. Moving Braun back to 3rd in the order was a mistake by Counsell. The Brewer schedule was murderous to start the second half but it was easy after they got past August 20. Braun's slash line on August 19 was .250/.301/.457/.758 and then he finished .254/.313/.469/.782. His slash line in September was .266/.382/.609/.991 when beating up on bad teams. Get to the playoffs and Braun slides back down to .286/.318/.333/.652 and against LA's quality staff he could only muster .241/.290/.310/.601. Counsell needs to have Braun hitting in about the 6th spot to start next year, and if Braun starts off the year well then he earns the chance to move back up in the lineup. I'm not a big believer in slash lines out of particular spots in the order, but Braun slashed .217/.269/.386/.655 when hitting third this year in the regular season.

[adambr2]

Basically my point is that you can find a cheap hitter anywhere or an aging veteran (Braun in this case) and stick them at first base while focusing resources on a position that much harder to find like CF, MI, 3b, or C.

 

Yes. Or we could just stick with our already pretty good 1st baseman who OPSed .929 off of LHP this season, and. 902 in 2017. Upgrading from that is not an easy thing to do especially when we're weak hitting LHP.

 

IMO we're far too concerned with 1B next year. If we're talking about finding an upgrade from Aguilar at 1B, why aren't we talking about finding a corner OF upgrade from Braun and getting Yelich back into his position of strength, LF?

 

I'd bet on Aguilar being the more productive hitter in 2019.

[adambr2]

Braun finished the year with a .313 OBP and having a guy making that many outs from the third spot in the lineup really can hinder an offense. Moving Braun back to 3rd in the order was a mistake by Counsell. The Brewer schedule was murderous to start the second half but it was easy after they got past August 20. Braun's slash line on August 19 was .250/.301/.457/.758 and then he finished .254/.313/.469/.782. His slash line in September was .266/.382/.609/.991 when beating up on bad teams. Get to the playoffs and Braun slides back down to .286/.318/.333/.652 and against LA's quality staff he could only muster .241/.290/.310/.601. Counsell needs to have Braun hitting in about the 6th spot to start next year, and if Braun starts off the year well then he earns the chance to move back up in the lineup. I'm not a big believer in slash lines out of particular spots in the order, but Braun slashed .217/.269/.386/.655 when hitting third this year in the regular season.

 

Agreed. Braun should never have been moved back to #3, he simply wasn't good there at all for whatever reaaon and when Counsell switched Braun and Aguilar back, it really backfired.

 

Braun was far from being our biggest postseason problem but when your every day #3 hitter posts a .652 playoff OPS it's a pretty good recipe for a sluggish offense which is exactly what we witnessed.

 

I get what Counsell was thinking -- not many others were doing a ton either and if it was a crapshoot anyway he wanted to roll the dice on the veteran. But at this point in his career you have to count on Braun as a role player, not a primary source of offense.

 

Crazy as it may sound, going with Arcia at #2 and going Yelich-Aguilar-Shaw-Braun-Moose at 3-7 probably wouldn't have been a bad idea the last few games of the LCS.

[long ball]

Basically my point is that you can find a cheap hitter anywhere or an aging veteran (Braun in this case) and stick them at first base while focusing resources on a position that much harder to find like CF, MI, 3b, or C.

 

Yes. Or we could just stick with our already pretty good 1st baseman who OPSed .929 off of LHP this season, and. 902 in 2017. Upgrading from that is not an easy thing to do especially when we're weak hitting LHP.

 

IMO we're far too concerned with 1B next year. If we're talking about finding an upgrade from Aguilar at 1B, why aren't we talking about finding a corner OF upgrade from Braun and getting Yelich back into his position of strength, LF?

 

I'd bet on Aguilar being the more productive hitter in 2019.

 

I totally agree that first base isn't the mot important position of opportunity. I think a Thames/Aguilar/Braun group provides sufficient coverage there.

 

Second or third base seems to be the easiest way to upgrade the offense. (I'm not in favor of just having a place holder at 2b for 2 months hoping Hiura can make the transition flawlessly by June, but he's pretty good insurance).

 

Catcher- this is going to be admittedly tough to do. I mean there's basically competing with every other MLB team for Grandal or Ramos or paying a huge prospect package for Realmuto.

 

SS would also be pretty darn tough to upgrade since there just aren't that many good SS who will be available. If they get 2017 Arcia that's a pretty good player.

[jonescm128]

You guys are all crazy if you think they are getting rid of Aguilar. The only 1B they will be getting rid of would be Thames. We don't need Thames when we have a guy like Shaw that can play 1B and spell Aguilar.

 

Yes, Aguilar didn't have a great second half but that was his first full season and big guys like that tend to wear down more quickly.

 

I do agree that they need an offensive upgrade but it won't be a guy like Goldschmidt.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

You guys are all crazy if you think they are getting rid of Aguilar. The only 1B they will be getting rid of would be Thames. We don't need Thames when we have a guy like Shaw that can play 1B and spell Aguilar.

 

Yes, Aguilar didn't have a great second half but that was his first full season and big guys like that tend to wear down more quickly.

 

I do agree that they need an offensive upgrade but it won't be a guy like Goldschmidt.

 

If they decide to keep Moose, I could definitely see Aguilar dealt. That would enable them to slide Shaw to 1B, likely in a platoon situation with Braun. I agree that Goldschmidt is an extreme long shot.

[tmwiese55]

I don't get the ripping Braun going back to 3rd. His second half stats were great, what more do you want considering Jesus was falling apart and who else was doing so well offensively in that stretch to put in that spot? now, planning on him to be 3rd for next year, that's a different call. But are you saying they should have had Jesus stay there hitting .230 or whatever he did second half?

 

Also, add in the Yelich baserunning blunder vs LA and his avg/obp goes to 275/322 in that series. Again, who hit so well vs LAD that this was at all the worst of their problems? Add in Yelich's two baserunning blunders for the playoffs and his avg/obp goes to 333/363.

[pacopete4]

I don't get the ripping Braun going back to 3rd. His second half stats were great, what more do you want considering Jesus was falling apart and who else was doing so well offensively in that stretch to put in that spot? now, planning on him to be 3rd for next year, that's a different call. But are you saying they should have had Jesus stay there hitting .230 or whatever he did second half?

 

Also, add in the Yelich baserunning blunder vs LA and his avg/obp goes to 275/322 in that series. Again, who hit so well vs LAD that this was at all the worst of their problems? Add in Yelich's two baserunning blunders for the playoffs and his avg/obp goes to 333/363.