Trading for Paul Goldschmidt

[pacopete4]

The guy has one year left (team option) at $14.5M. You want a bat to stick after Yelich? It’s this guy.

 

Cain

Yelich

Goldschmidt

Shaw

Braun

Moustakas

Pina

Arcia

[pitchleague]

And what would we be offering for him?

 

I love dreams, rainbows, and unicorns, too. But it's gonna take a major offer to land him.

[TURBO]

Start with Jesus... One year left, so he is basically a rental. Start with Jesus and see what happens.

 

I know this is a pipe dream, but it would be a pretty sweet season in 2019!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Start with Jesus... One year left, so he is basically a rental. Start with Jesus and see what happens.

 

I know this is a pipe dream, but it would be a pretty sweet season in 2019!

 

Is Goldschmidt that much better than Aguilar that it would be worth giving up Jesus's control plus probably more for one year of Goldy?

[pacopete4]

Start with Jesus... One year left, so he is basically a rental. Start with Jesus and see what happens.

 

I know this is a pipe dream, but it would be a pretty sweet season in 2019!

 

Is Goldschmidt that much better than Aguilar that it would be worth giving up Jesus's control plus probably more for one year of Goldy?

 

IMO, yes. Aguilar’s regression candidacy started happening this year already. Goldschmidt is a bat that transforms lineups much like adding Cain and Yelich did this season. You could have your 1-3 of the lineup getting on base at a 38-40% rate. Wow, would that be fun to watch.

[adambr2]

Not sure this really fits for either team to be honest. For Goldy you're talking a one year rental, so you're definitely all-in on 2020 and likely losing him after. I think Stearns would probably prefer a model of sustainability.

 

For the Diamondbacks if they're selling Goldy they're definitely going full fire sale. They're going to want a prospect laden return, not something centered around a 28 year old 1B coming off a career year. Probably matches them up better with someone like the Yankees, IMO.

[Boomer5]

Not going to happen. We are out of the star trade market at this point.

[Roderick]

Start with Jesus... One year left, so he is basically a rental. Start with Jesus and see what happens.

 

I know this is a pipe dream, but it would be a pretty sweet season in 2019!

 

Is Goldschmidt that much better than Aguilar that it would be worth giving up Jesus's control plus probably more for one year of Goldy?

 

Age 31 Goldschmidt @ $14.5M plus the following draft pick when we don't end up keeping him in FA is not worth four years of cheap (one team control, 3 yrs of arby) Age 29-32 Aguilar - unless you think Aguilar is just the .809ops guy he was Jul-Sep. Which would seem to be a valid concern if he were tail off any more.

[coolhandluke121]

I'm so cynical it hurts, but with guys like Aguilar and Thames being so dominant for several months and then tailing off so much, I automatically start to think PEDs. Tests are less frequent in the off season and that's a time when guys might be more willing to take the chance. Then they come out hitting way above career norms but can't sustain it. I wouldn't bet on them being on PEDs, but I'd also be pretty reluctant to bet against it.

 

That said, I don't think I'd trade Aguilar+ for Goldschmidt. Just too short-term. I'd probably give Thames more starts at 1B next year in an effort to keep him sharp and give Aguilar more off days.

[MNBrew]

I believe I recall hearing some commentary during games about Aguilar playing more -- and longer -- this season than he ever has. If that's the case, how is this not like a rookie hitting something of an August/September wall? I'm not saying it's the same thing, but the guy hasn't played everyday for a couple years, and never in the bigs, meaning this season's a good 5-6 weeks longer -- plus the All-Star Game & postseason -- than anything he's ever done.

 

The 2nd half decline is definitely noteworthy. I'm not turning a blind eye to that. But a possibly very valid explanation does exist.

 

To the thread topic, I like the idea but I'm not sure how worth it the cost would be, both short- & long-term.

 

Side note: Goldy is a very good friend of a former student of mine, now a colleague, who played several years in the AZ system with him. It would be all the more fun from that angle for Goldy to be a Brewer. Chase Anderson and Jake Elmore (with us part of 2016) are a couple of his other really good friends.

[nate82]

I'm so cynical it hurts, but with guys like Aguilar and Thames being so dominant for several months and then tailing off so much, I automatically start to think PEDs. Tests are less frequent in the off season and that's a time when guys might be more willing to take the chance. Then they come out hitting way above career norms but can't sustain it. I wouldn't bet on them being on PEDs, but I'd also be pretty reluctant to bet against it.

 

That said, I don't think I'd trade Aguilar+ for Goldschmidt. Just too short-term. I'd probably give Thames more starts at 1B next year in an effort to keep him sharp and give Aguilar more off days.

 

That's not how PED's work. They are not a wonder drug that all of a sudden makes a player super man. Players like Thames and Aguillar will have months where they are hot and months where they are extremely cold. This happens to almost every single player in MLB even players like Trout go through swings like this but for players like Trout their month to month stats don't differ too much as they stay rather close to their career average.

 

PED's would have more of an impact on say a player going from 0 HR's a year to 50 a year. That would be more of a PED flag than someone having a hot few months and then all of a sudden cooling off.

[HiAndTight]

Not sure this really fits for either team to be honest. For Goldy you're talking a one year rental, so you're definitely all-in on 2020 and likely losing him after. I think Stearns would probably prefer a model of sustainability.

 

For the Diamondbacks if they're selling Goldy they're definitely going full fire sale. They're going to want a prospect laden return, not something centered around a 28 year old 1B coming off a career year. Probably matches them up better with someone like the Yankees, IMO.

 

 

It's the first full year OF his career...so it seems premature to say this was his career year. Aguilar is a guy who has power to all fields and in part time action two years ago and as a starter this year looks like a outstanding hitter. It seems like a lot of the people who warn about sample sizes on here seem to put more emphasis on a poor small sampling than the opposite.

 

I'm sure the D-backs would want more back for an MVP type bat, but Aguilar seems to be exactly like the type of guy they'd want. They have the talent to make a playoff push now. You could plug Aguilar in a have a great replacement for Goldshmidt.

[jerichoholicninja]

I don't see Goldschmidt bringing back that great of a return unless a bunch of teams get in a bidding war. He's got one year left and he plays a position (with no defensive versatility) that is more often than not a platoon position these days or at least one where teams aren't committing lots of resources to. Jose Abreu is out there too, if both are available that drives the price down for both. I'd really hesitate to give up any pitchers but our offense is flat our embarrassing so often I might. Especially if Moose isn't back.

[coolhandluke121]

 

PED's would have more of an impact on say a player going from 0 HR's a year to 50 a year. That would be more of a PED flag than someone having a hot few months and then all of a sudden cooling off.

 

Aguilar was an .800 OPS guy in the minor leagues for nearly 10 years, without being an especially young minor league player at most levels, so it is actually a pretty dramatic improvement to be doing what he's done this year. I'm not going to push the PED theory very hard, but I do think it would fit. You train hard and build some muscle in the off season with a little boost, but muscle mass disappears over the course of the season if you're not able to stay on the program. I think hitting the wall is slightly more likely and he might benefit from shedding some weight to stay effective all year next year, but I don't quite agree that PEDs don't work that way.

[adambr2]

Not sure this really fits for either team to be honest. For Goldy you're talking a one year rental, so you're definitely all-in on 2020 and likely losing him after. I think Stearns would probably prefer a model of sustainability.

 

For the Diamondbacks if they're selling Goldy they're definitely going full fire sale. They're going to want a prospect laden return, not something centered around a 28 year old 1B coming off a career year. Probably matches them up better with someone like the Yankees, IMO.

 

 

It's the first full year OF his career...so it seems premature to say this was his career year. Aguilar is a guy who has power to all fields and in part time action two years ago and as a starter this year looks like a outstanding hitter. It seems like a lot of the people who warn about sample sizes on here seem to put more emphasis on a poor small sampling than the opposite.

 

I'm sure the D-backs would want more back for an MVP type bat, but Aguilar seems to be exactly like the type of guy they'd want. They have the talent to make a playoff push now. You could plug Aguilar in a have a great replacement for Goldshmidt.

 

But that's not the direction they're going if they're selling Goldschmidt, that's the thing. If Goldschmidt goes, it's likely a full fire sale.

 

And if Aguilar is indeed for real, why are we trading him + pieces for 1 year of Goldschmidt? He fits our necessary model of cost control perfectly.

[reillymcshane]

I love Goldschmidt, but - for various reasons - I don't think he fits with Milwaukee.

 

- 1 year of control

- Fairly expensive ($14.5M for 2019)

- Will cost a lot to obtain

- Already have a decent, low-cost alternative

 

Perhaps if we had a loaded farm system - I could see making such a deal. Or if we only had a one-year 'window' before us. Goldschmidt's bat would be great in our lineup. But this team is being built for long-term success. A one-year rental of a great player is a very 'all in' move - especially when we lack a really deep farm system.

 

It does not hurt to check in on what the cost of Goldy would be - but I'm guessing it will be a lot.

[Boomer5]

He is a 6 time AS, 3 time GG, and has a 5.4 WAR in what was an off year for him.

 

We aren’t trading for him and certainly not for Aguilar who we like but most teams wouldn’t consider in such a deal.

[coolhandluke121]

You can sure see how Aguilar and Thames were considered fringe MLB players for much of their professional careers until recently. I don't know if it's conditioning or the length of the season or PED's wearing off or just regressing to the bad habits that put their MLB careers in jeopardy in the first place, but they've been a big bag of suck an awful lot lately. I don't think the Brewers are going to get Goldschmidt but in no way are they set at 1B for the long haul. The problem is that it's easy to find a 2-3 WAR player to replace a 0-1 WAR player, but it's not so easy to find a 4-5 WAR player to replace a bunch of wannabe top of the order hitters like Thames, Aguilar, Santana, Moustakas, Shaw, Granderson, Braun, and possibly Schoop if he rebounds at all.

 

I wish they had just kept Choi. Sucks to give away a younger player with that kind of potential. I'd be more optimistic with Choi and Aguilar, hoping that at least one of them could find sustainable success, and if not you at least have a solid platoon. But they're probably going to roll with Thames and Aguilar again next year, which is good but not quite as inspiring. Just makes you wonder how they're going to upgrade the lineup overall. I don't think Shaw's bat is much of an asset if he plays a lot of 1B either.

[MrTPlush]

They need to get a right handed bat that can be considered a middle of the order force...they need that just in general. This series against the Dodgers has really shown our weakness of no righty bats. Our best player is rendered useless, Shaw hardly plays, and Moustakas struggles against the lefties. That's already 3/5 of our top hitters. Add in our best righty bat struggling and that is why the offense is a pile of garbage. Then you have a solid righty...but oh wait he has nowhere to play (Santana).

 

Yes we have struggled regardless of who is pitching, but our utter lack of righty bats has been exposed pretty well. That is why adding a guy like Machado would have been absolutely massive for us...instead we are watching a team beat us with him.

 

Not sure Goldy is the guy, but I am guessing there aren't to many impact RH bats available via trade. Not sure how you go into next season with the same problem.

[Surhoff5]

They need to get a right handed bat that can be considered a middle of the order force...they need that just in general. This series against the Dodgers has really shown our weakness of no righty bats. Our best player is rendered useless, Shaw hardly plays, and Moustakas struggles against the lefties. That's already 3/5 of our top hitters. Add in our best righty bat struggling and that is why the offense is a pile of garbage. Then you have a solid righty...but oh wait he has nowhere to play (Santana).

 

Yes we have struggled regardless of who is pitching, but our utter lack of righty bats has been exposed pretty well. That is why adding a guy like Machado would have been absolutely massive for us...instead we are watching a team beat us with him.

 

Not sure Goldy is the guy, but I am guessing there aren't to many impact RH bats available via trade. Not sure how you go into next season with the same problem.

 

 

Yeah and I think that is why Stearns went and got Schoop even though it made no sense to a lot of people. Clearly Schoop has been awful and he got the wrong guy, but I give him credit for knowing they would struggle against LA/Chicago if it got to that point.

 

I don't think Goldy is the guy either, but I agree, they need a middle of order RH bat going into next season.

[tmwiese55]

I get that it seems that way due to how bad their struggling now. But overall: Cain kills lefties, Yeli was better vs lefties. Braun of course is always good vs lefties. Jesus as well. So 'roster building' it seemed to be fairly balanced other than Schoop crapping the bed completely so you're left playing Perez. The guys just aren't performing at the biggest time.

 

But really adding one RH infielder who is a better hitter is all you can do from a roster building view of it. That way you can sit at least one of Shaw/Moose. Same problem will be there next year even without Moose since Shaw is so bad vs lefties. So you need someone to play 2B and 3B. Perez isn't awful but you need better if you're playing for a title, and Schoop really needs to play better. After that you have a Keston waiting. Still a RH hitting contact hitting guy who can play 2B/3B seems to be a key target to me.

[coolhandluke121]

The infuriating thing with Aguilar and Braun is that they're facing a lot of LHP's and still can't do jack. It stinks. Big difference between the way they're struggling and their terrible approach vs. Yelich, who will surely start to see dividends as long as he maintains his sound approach.

[coolhandluke121]

I get that it seems that way due to how bad their struggling now. But overall: Cain kills lefties, Yeli was better vs lefties. Braun of course is always good vs lefties. Jesus as well. So 'roster building' it seemed to be fairly balanced other than Schoop crapping the bed completely so you're left playing Perez.

 

Yelich is 100 OPS points better against RHP's for his career. Only about 20 points this year, but that doesn't have nearly the same statistical significance. I don't really think you can use Braun and "always good" in the same sentence ever again, in any baseball context. Aguilar could be one of those guys who had a spike peak at prime age. That's not an unusual trajectory. He had a year that would make Eric Thames proud, though he did sustain his best hitting for longer than Thames last year.

 

I'm down to give all of them except Schoop another chance next year (even Hernan!), but whom they replace Schoop with is going to be a huge factor like you said. And if Moustakas is gone, you also probably want an LHB middle infielder option too.

[jerichoholicninja]

Assuming Moose isn't back, Hernan Perez is basically a regular starter next year playing multiple positions. That can't happen. This offense needs an actual hitter somewhere after Yelich and Cain, probably more than one to be honest. Maybe that's Hiura, maybe Braun stays healthy and on top of his game all year but I wouldn't count on either of those things. Aguilar is basically Geoff Jenkins, gets hot for a couple games and hits a bunch of homeruns and then does pretty much nothing the rest of the time. And while he seems to make some athletic plays defensively, he doesn't seem that smart as there's been multiple times this playoffs where he's held the bag on a throw with no chance of an out and let the ball get past him.

 

The most logical positions for a bat are 1B and 3B. Shaw can hold his own at 2B until Hiura is ready or move to 1B if we bring in a 3B.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I get that it seems that way due to how bad their struggling now. But overall: Cain kills lefties, Yeli was better vs lefties. Braun of course is always good vs lefties. Jesus as well. So 'roster building' it seemed to be fairly balanced other than Schoop crapping the bed completely so you're left playing Perez. The guys just aren't performing at the biggest time.

 

But really adding one RH infielder who is a better hitter is all you can do from a roster building view of it. That way you can sit at least one of Shaw/Moose. Same problem will be there next year even without Moose since Shaw is so bad vs lefties. So you need someone to play 2B and 3B. Perez isn't awful but you need better if you're playing for a title, and Schoop really needs to play better. After that you have a Keston waiting. Still a RH hitting contact hitting guy who can play 2B/3B seems to be a key target to me.

 

That's why I could see the Brewers being a key player for DJ LeMahieu or Jed Lowrie this offseason. I think LeMahieu would be an excellent fit. The only issue is he may be looking for more of a long-term contract, and with Hiura potentially waiting in the wings, I'm not sure I'd want to go more than two years on him. They could throw a cheap 1-year deal at someone like Jordy Mercer, too, and see if he bites. The Pirates may be moving on from Josh Harrison as well.