A Word on Mark Rogers

[Rogers8Fan]

I'm going to go all out in this. I would post it in that other topic but I feel I deserve my own http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

 

I can confidently say I know more about Mark Rogers than anyone on this board. Mt. Ararat played against us, I saw him play (hah, I'm the scorekeeper, though.) He struck out against my friend's 55 MPH change-up. I've also researched a ton on him and read every article I have found since September on him. I spent $40 to get a Baseball America subscription just to find out more stuff about him. I also just saw him pitch yesterday.

 

Okay, so Mark Rogers is your first overall pick. I love the guy, and I hope he becomes the next hall of famer. But someone who is supposed to be biased about him has this to say:

 

Hah, that's a pretty bad pick.

 

Here's why: I'm sure a lot of people agree with me, and I would probably argue he's a good pick because I like him so much if I saw someone say something bad about him.

 

I believe wholeheartedly in the philosophy of drafting college players. Everything about me says I go against that philosophy (Josh Beckett has been my favorite player since I saw him throw his first pitch off the mound at Hadlock Field for the Portland Sea Dogs, and I'm a Braves fan, who take mostly high schoolers.) But everything goes against it. ESPECIALLY high school pitchers. Not that there are no good high school pitchers in the majors out there... but more because they are just so tough to project and it's almost as likely an 8th rounder will become an ace as a 5th overall pick when it comes to high school pitchers. Hitters are a little better, I do not know why exactly, but they are.

 

But Mark Rogers is an even greater risk than other high school pitchers! He's from Maine! Ugh, I love this state, but this is not a place to be drafting high school pitchers 5th overall from. Our best major leaguer in the past 20 years is either Mike Bordick (who wasn't even born here!) or Bill Swift, who was taken out of college. Our high school pitchers... the only 2 I know of are Jeremy Shorey and Matt Kinney. Shorey was never a big prospect, but he never made it past Ogden, which I believe was yout low-A affiliation at the time. Kinney is actually a "success" story. If Rogers advances as much as Kinney did, then he will be a solid #2 starter, which would certainly be considered successful to me.

 

So let's look at the 2 most recent success stories from high school so far. Josh Beckett and Kerry Wood. Both have injury troubles, and both are from Texas. That's why... you should have taken Homer Bailey! Ahh it would have been such a much better pick for the Brewers. I would have gone with any college pitcher available over Rogers, anyway.

 

Rogers' wind-up is so very erratic. It's not smooth in the least bit. It's almost like a less exaggerated Chan Ho Park and he throws way across his body. What's good about it is he seems to get a ton of arm action in there... his arm is a freakin' whip when he is pitching.

 

The competition he faced in Maine also isn't even the best possible. Maine's class A (the highest possible) has 2 divisions... the KVAC (Kennebec Valley Athletic Conference) and the other one. I think they are just considered "south" or something. Well, anyway, Mt. Ararat is in the KVAC, which doesn't even compare to the competition of southern Maine. Let's use my school as an example. Last year we were in the south and won 2 games, losing 12. Our worst loss was 22-0 to Deering. This year, with what I thought was a worse team than last year's, we went 6-10 and our worst loss was 10-0 to Mt. Ararat. It was the only game we lost by the 10-run rule, compared to about 3 or 4 last year. Southern Maine also has like 5 less teams. The 5 extra teams in the KVAC aren't really that fantastic. Even schools with good records aren't necessarily great because they are up north and play the other bad teams from up north.

 

He is a tremendous athlete, but don't be fooled by his hockey skills. Reports that he'd get a hockey scholarship are right, but he was only the 5th or 6th best player in the state. He has a killer slapshot that is about as fast as his fastball, but that's about it. My school eliminated Mt. Ararat in the playoffs earlier this year. Rogers only had an assist, and couldn't score a goal on my friend who later struck him out...

 

 

I think Rogers would have been much better off accepting his scholarship to Miami. But he had to be so unstoppable this year and the Brewers had to take him 5th overall. I can't blame him for not taking the 2+ million dollars the Brewers will throw at him and run with it when there's a risk if he goes to Miami he becomes nothing.

 

This is such a very disorganized post, I realize, which poor grammar and stuff. Heh, I'm out of school for the summer and I'm not thinking. I'm also preoccupied.

 

Anyway, now I will say what's good about Rogers.

 

Mark comes from a very athletic family. A family of lobstermen! That's what his dad, Craig (Mt. Ararat's coach) does and his whole family works doing that in the summer. His older brother is a pitcher for UMaine, and it isn't often a Mainer pitches in a D1 college. His younger brother might even be the best of them all! He's in 8th grade and throws in the early 80s. I've seen the kid, too, he's only like 5'5"! He has a ton of growing to do. So it's evident Rogers comes from a very un-Mainelike family, which is beneficial to him.

 

I know he has the potential to be good. He has tremendous potential. However, it all depends on how the Brewers treat him. Not many mistakes can be made with him. And no offense, but I'm not quite sure the Brewers can handle him. I really mean no offense by it, but I think there are better organizations (like the Marlins or Yankees) for him. The Brewers are a decent team this year, but they need help and may want to have him before he is ready.

 

Finally, he's Mark Rogers! I know he has as much determination to succeed as it will take to succeed. That could be wishful thinking, but I hope not. I've heard stuff from people he may be a brown-noser and a little cocky, though. That may not be good.

[JoeHova]

Very interesting post. I don't necessarily agree with your reasoning about why he's a bad pick (being from Maine, after all, Schilling is from Alaska), but the stuff about his delivery is illuminating.

 

I have the same apprehension about HS pitchers that you do (because of injury concerns) but I don't see why Mark would be a bigger risk than any other HS pitcher. In fact, he may be less of one because he would have pitched fewer games in his career.

[Rogers8Fan]

It's the competition he's faced. He hasn't faced much so he's untested. He has good control but not when he has to do his best. He may go into the minors trying to do too much.

 

And no, it's worse he hasn't pitched much because he's going to go from 50 innings a year to 150, instead of 80 or so innings a year to 150.

 

And Curt Schilling is a rare case.

[JoeHova]

well, I'm not sure that will be the case innings wise. I'm sure the Brewers will build his stamina up slowly. I doubt they want him to jump 100 inning in 1 year.

 

I realize the comp was not what it is in other states but he did dominate some showcase didn't he? Also, plenty of guys have made the majors despite being from small towns/schools.

[Rogers8Fan]

It's just something that is against him. There aren't many first round picks that are high school pitchers from a small state that became good.

[batman]

Rogers8Fan, have I mentioned I'm really glad you founds this board? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

Great points all, and it's awesome to have some real, local knowledge of a player we otherwise only know about from the mainstream media. I made the same observation about his inconsistent delivery and arm angle/action after watching the MLB.com video before the draft, and I really think that's going to prove to be a problem. If he can't get his mechanics "normalized," he's going to be an injury waiting to happen and he'll have trouble developing consistency. I'm not saying he can't change, I'm just saying that we're relying a lot on projecting him into a different pitcher than he is now.

 

Thanks again, Rogers8Fan.

 

~Bill

[Rogers8Fan]

Yes, that I agree with that. But he needs to fix it while keeping that whip of an arm. I really think his whole wind-up is just a disaster waiting to happen.

[go brewcrew]

Pitcher myself and buying Dick Mills program and havinga part time pitching coach, I know more about mechanics then most here. If he could stop throwing accross his body he could add mph which i had a problem with i threw 87 before i fixed that fault now i can reach 92. Also he would have to work on his balance seein as how when you pitch a certain way your whole life ie throwing across your boddy you become acclimatized to that form, when you change it so your landing foot is in line with the ball of your back foot your balance will tend to be shakey.

[bjamesw22]

I also noticed the same things about his throwing motion after watching the mlb.com video.

 

go brewcrew,

 

I'm going to add to what you said about pitching mechanics. You may know more than most here, but not all, so I will add something. The day we learn everything about baseball is the day we should quit watching it! Which is never. The thing that I noticed the most was the way that Mark crouches over when he's supposedly reaching his balance point. It really looks like he needs to strengthen his core(abs, back, and obliques). The less extra movement in his delivery the better he will be at repeating his delivery and the more consistency he will have. Also, if he stays more upright in his delivery he will create a better downhill plane to the plate. As his delivery is right now, his plane to the plate is that of a 5'10 pitcher instead of a 6'2 pitcher. That's just my opinion. The biggest thing you will see with high school pitchers is their weak core. This is why many of them develop arm problems because of the way they hunch over or lean backwards when they throw. IMO, this is what he needs to work on the most.

 

After watching the mlb.com videos I would also have prefered Homer Bailey just by watching the throwing motions and taking into account where they are both from and the competition they faced. The Brewers must be really banking on Rogers ability to tweak his throwing motion because it looked to me like Bailey had very good mechanics already. I hope Rogers proves me wrong.

[BucEbadger1979]

Gotta say i like the Pick still, Rogers or Bailey both were solid options in my book. But here is the thing i like about Rogers the best; he has not thrown a heck of alot of innings this year plus he comes from a cold weather school which means he has a better idea of what it takes to get ready to pitch in a city like Beloit or Milwaukee.. He is less likely to have arm problems IMO from not being properly warmed up, Mechanics can be fixed its just gonna take him most his minor league options to do so.

[igor67]

Why would it take Rogers 6-7 years to fix his mechanics? As a High schooler we have him for 4 years before he has to be on the 40 man roster and burning options. I'd be concerned if his mechanics hadn't noticeably improved by then.

[colbyjack]

Thanks again Rogers8fan for your thoughts, and thanks for other for their input as well, especially for some of bjamesw22's oberservations. His crouch & delivery do seem a little odd, so it will be interesting if our pitching coaches get him to "straighten" up a little bit.

 

I know cress mentioned Rogers' delivery before the draft, with him throwing across his body, so this isn't the first time we've heard this. I can't say that's exactly pleasing, because it's not the easiest thing to correct. The more I read about Rogers the more I yearn for Sowers or even Bailey. I'll root for Rogers just like everyone else, but when & if he falls to a serious injury I may just have to join greg's "I told you so" camp http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

 

Then again, I don't think the Brewers would have taken the guy unless they feel they can do something to fix his mechanics.

[JoeHova]

fixing mechanics shouldn't really be too hard. Just send him to work with Tom House.

[H0FFY]

Interesting how Jack Z was said to have been following Rogers for years. So, how can the guys here find so many obvious flaws with the kid? I actually do believe you guys, by the way.

 

To me it is a really odd pick, Mr Rogers. But, I am now wondering 'if we can fix up his 97 mph flawed mechanics, what sort of a horse will remain'. Will he be some steed that shoots them down at 102 mph?

 

You all know how grumpy I was at a high school kid so high in the draft. So I calm myself with Capuano's 2 something era and Parra's sudden health and improvement. And, heck, maybe even this Josh Baker guy can be a Mark Mulder or Hudson. The fouth round is a good place to pick a good pitcher. (Does he come with a free Berkman?)

 

But back to hoping Mark Rogers is hitting triple figures after we fix up his condition and mechanics.

[biedergb]

If we can sign the top15 or so and a couple late sleeper picks (or in Drew Bowman's case, a non-sleeper who fell), I will really like this pick. Here's why,

*Rogers likely has the same ceiling as many of the other high end pitchers drafted. (That is to say everyone in the 1st round has the "ace" potential by some scout by virtue of being drafted there). But there were no gimme picks, like a Mark Prior, or even a Rickie Weeks at the top of this draft.

*Arm injuries don't seem to discrimminate (although many Wisconsonites may beg to differ given the Brew Crew's disproportionate number of prospects flaming out). So Bailey or Niemann or Sowers could have a major injury next year, as could this kid (heck even JP jinxed him by comparing him to JM Gold).

*He may take less time to negotiate with, and possibly a little less money to sign (maybe?) meaning a little extra to kick around to the top picks and a few late round reaches (like Bowman, Pryor, etc).

 

So his upside is on par with others, maybe with a few questions, and who knows what happens with any of these first rounders, it's alway a crapshoot. So if we had a choice of let's say Weaver/Verlander and only a handful of our top 20, or Rogers and most of our top 20 picks, I go with the latter, because in minor league baseball quantity goes a long way.

(Maybe I'm over-rationalizing this pick, but it make me feel better that way)http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/happy.gif

[Rogers8Fan]

Haha, speaking of "Mr. Rogers"

 

When Deering beat Mark Rogers someone was over a bridge with a sign saying "Mr. Rogers can't hang in this neighborhood."

 

I thought it was pretty witty.

[endaround]

So I'm the only one who reads "Colt Griffin" when I see Mark Rogers?

[giezer007]

Good News

 

 

""General manager Doug Melvin said he expected negotiations with first-round draft pick Mark Rogers to come to a successful conclusion by the end of the week.

 

"That's the way it's looking," Melvin said. "We don't expect any problems. One of the reasons we drafted him was because we thought we could sign him fairly quickly and get his career started."

 

The commissioner's office recommended a signing bonus of $2.5 million for the fifth pick last year, but teams have been asked to reduce bonuses this year. Under those guidelines, Rogers probably will get a signing bonus of around $2.3 million. ""

[tyguy20204]

Thanks for the update giezer.

[colbyjack]

So I'm the only one who reads "Colt Griffin" when I see Mark Rogers?

 

Rogers actually can throw more than just a fastball, and his curveball at this stage is better than Mike Jones' when he was at Beloit. All 3 can dominate with their fastballs, but Colt Griffin IMO isn't a fair comparison.

[Cdiddy34]

Maybe we shoulda drafted that posters friend.. he sounds like a much better athlete

[Rogers8Fan]

I wouldn't say "athlete." Rogers is a great athlete.

[Sandiegokid3]

Rogers8Fan---Although you claim to be a Mark Rogers fan, your post indicates otherwise IMO. While you are able to post on this forum in relative anonymity, Mark Rogers' status as a 1st round draft pick seems to come with a bullseye painted on his back. Since you claim to know so much about Rogers and his family---have you told them these same things face-to-face or do you find it preferable to go behind their backs? Do you wish to share with us your name, your high school, and your credentials for evaluating baseball prospects and their talent? That certainly would increase your credibility. The Brewers have the #1 rated development system in all of baseball. I'm confident that the Brewers scouting department knew what they were doing when they drafted Mark Rogers. Time will tell.

[emunney]

Sandiegokid, being a fan needn't imply a perceived invincibility of the object. The guy is voicing his concerns, and isn't being particularly critical of Rogers at all. He's basing his criticisms on historical precedence, and while that may not be the best way to predict success, it's no worse than you (and many of us, including me) leaning on the successes of the Brewers scouting department.

 

Now, I don't need your name or home phone number. Just tell me how your "calling out" of this guy adds to the discourse in the same way that Rogers8Fan's criticism does. What credentials would be acceptable to you, what prerequisites necessary for simple research? Not that I think Rogers8Fan has anything to cower from in the first place. I highly doubt he's scared to be recognized for identifying the negatives in selecting a high school pitcher from Maine with the fifth pick.

 

EDIT: Also, since your post struck a particular minor chord with me, when you get the chance, and before you get in another argument, do a Google search on "ad hominem" and "fallacy".

[MassBrew]

Sandiegokid3

 

Hmmm, Matt Bush -- is that you? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif