Dodgers v Brewers

[pacopete4]

And if he brings in Soria and he gives up runs, people complain about not using Jeffress in the 8th. No win situation. Players just need to start doing their jobs.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I've been a fervent defender of CC all year and will continue to be one, but he blew it bringing Jeffress out for the 8th. I was surprised to see him because I thought it was obvious he didn't have it.

[TURBO]

And if he brings in Soria and he gives up runs, people complain about not using Jeffress in the 8th. No win situation. Players just need to start doing their jobs.

 

I'd never complain about not using Jeffress for multiple innings, NEVER!

[TURBO]

I've been a fervent defender of CC all year and will continue to be one, but he blew it bringing Jeffress out for the 8th. I was surprised to see him because I thought it was obvious he didn't have it.

 

That is my point basically, everyone but CC knew he didn't have his A game, but yet he brings him out anyway. Made no sense then, makes even less sense now.

[pacopete4]

And if he brings in Soria and he gives up runs, people complain about not using Jeffress in the 8th. No win situation. Players just need to start doing their jobs.

 

I'd never complain about not using Jeffress for multiple innings, NEVER!

 

I love the enthusiasm!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I've been a fervent defender of CC all year and will continue to be one, but he blew it bringing Jeffress out for the 8th. I was surprised to see him because I thought it was obvious he didn't have it.

 

That is my point basically, everyone but CC knew he didn't have his A game, but yet he brings him out anyway. Made no sense then, makes even less sense now.

 

I'm not going to say I wasn't nervous when Jeffress came out for the 8th, but given the options that were available (Soria or Knebel for a two-inning save I guess), I would have been nervous regardless. In hindsight, I wish they would give Guerra more high leverage spots. He's been great in relief. I wouldn't have trusted Peralta at all in that spot, though.

 

For those wanting Counsell to move Jeffress to low-leverage spots, this is his quote on it from yesterday:

 

He hasn't had the results so far. But he's going to get the ball again. We're going to need him to get outs. I'll tell you that for this to work, we need to count on our guys. And we're going to continue to."

 

I know the hindsight and "told-you-so" police will be waiting to jump on this if the Brewers don't make the WS, but I'm good with it. For this team to make the series, they need Jeffress to do exactly what he did throughout the regular season - be great in high-leverage spots. There's no hiding him at this point.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Again, I accept that. They can't have their 2nd or 3rd best reliever getting comfy on the bench in the playoffs. He has to pitch again, if he does and blows it, that's baseball.

 

But I wanted Knebel out there because he is generally much better at avoiding contact. Counsell should have been thanking the baseball Gods that JJ got that DP to end the 7th and realized he gambled and won. Guerra didn't occur to me, but I am guessing that he was banking on getting a lot of use out of him in LA.

 

I wouldn't have complained if someone else gave up the runs, just like I am not complaining that he yanked Miley. That made sense. Leaving JJ out there did not, to me.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Knebel also threw roughly twice as many pitches as Jeffress did in Game 1, meaning Jeffress was the better option to try and get more than 1 IP between the 7th/8th once it was obvious Burnes was not the answer. To me, it boils down mostly to the decision to pull Miley with two outs in the 6th and the tying run at the plate at the time. I think he pulled him 1 batter too early, because if he gets Turner out in that spot he probably can send him back out to start the 7th and potentially eliminate the rally Burnes' poor performance started. CC was counting on Burnes getting them to the 8th and he failed.

 

Miley has shown the ability to work deep into games on occasion, including against the Dodgers - he should have been given the opportunity to get into the 7th inning, especially with how the pen was used in game 1 of this series. Jeffress has been inconsistent, but the hits he gave up in game 1 were largely luck and he came into the game with the bases juiced. Knebel made things super interesting in the 9th in game 1, too. A big part of this is the Dodgers are just a damn good team full of tough outs - it's going to be a struggle no matter who's on the mound.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Knebel also threw roughly twice as many pitches as Jeffress did in Game 1, meaning Jeffress was the better option to try and get more than 1 IP between the 7th/8th once it was obvious Burnes was not the answer. To me, it boils down mostly to the decision to pull Miley with two outs in the 6th and the tying run at the plate at the time. I think he pulled him 1 batter too early, because if he gets Turner out in that spot he probably can send him back out to start the 7th and potentially eliminate the rally Burnes' poor performance started. CC was counting on Burnes getting them to the 8th and he failed.

 

Miley has shown the ability to work deep into games on occasion, including against the Dodgers - he should have been given the opportunity to get into the 7th inning, especially with how the pen was used in game 1 of this series. Jeffress has been inconsistent, but the hits he gave up in game 1 were largely luck and he came into the game with the bases juiced. Knebel made things super interesting in the 9th in game 1, too. A big part of this is the Dodgers are just a damn good team full of tough outs - it's going to be a struggle no matter who's on the mound.

 

Yep, in all this hand-wringing and second guessing, few are mentioning that the Dodgers are just a really good team and are gonna get theirs regardless.

 

As for Jeffress, I look at things this way. How ludicrous does it sound if I say "Yelich just doesn't look right, and he's choked so far against the Dodgers. Maybe he should take a seat on the bench, and maybe take the Domingo Santana '4th inning pinch hitter' role."

 

See how dumb that sounds? Hitters and pitchers go through slumps. When they are your stars, you stick with them, and let them work out of it. You sink or swim with your stars. Yelich is a star. So is Jeffress.

[coolhandluke121]

 

You can't just bench the guy who has arguably been the best reliever in the league after a rough week. That would be akin to benching Yelich right now due to poor play,

 

It's not really like that. Relievers are supposed to be utilized that way. And regardless of how many times JJ successfully worked over multiple innings this year, I'm sure there's plenty of evidence showing that, like most relievers, he's best in his first inning of work and against the first few batters he faces - let alone against a team like LAD and the top of their order. That's just how bullpens go. And the accumulation of innings and appearances throughout the year is a factor, too. He's got a ton of miles on him right now. It's not the same as pulling Yelich at all.

 

Also, hitters had a BABIP of .249 against him this year. He was good, but more of a candidate for "luckiest good reliever" than "best reliever".

[tmwiese55]

JJ had the bad game in game 1 vs COL. Came back in game 2 and went two shutout innings in game 2 didn't he? He essentially gave up bloopers/dribblers for hits in both these LAD games besides the HR to a really good hitter. Bases loaded walk sucked too but it was a curveball that just missed low. Don't get me wrong, it sucks he hasn't been his normal self, but he's been your best most consistent guy all year with a low 1 ERA. Hits are gonna happen, stick with him and he'll be fine.

 

If he leaves Miley in there and Miley gives up a ding dong or double down the line CC gets ripped for that too. It came down to Burnes/JJ having bad days. If Burnes mows down that next inning like he has been doing for months now, they probably cruise to an easy W. It happens, Dodgers are good too, as much as I joked MKE would sweep the whole playoffs I think we all knew they'd lose a game. The sky isn't falling, go back out tonight with the same strategy that got you here and win the game.

[KeithStone53151]

 

You can't just bench the guy who has arguably been the best reliever in the league after a rough week. That would be akin to benching Yelich right now due to poor play,

 

It's not really like that. Relievers are supposed to be utilized that way. And regardless of how many times JJ successfully worked over multiple innings this year, I'm sure there's plenty of evidence showing that, like most relievers, he's best in his first inning of work and against the first few batters he faces - let alone against a team like LAD and the top of their order. That's just how bullpens go. And the accumulation of innings and appearances throughout the year is a factor, too. He's got a ton of miles on him right now. It's not the same as pulling Yelich at all.

 

Also, hitters had a BABIP of .249 against him this year. He was good, but more of a candidate for "luckiest good reliever" than "best reliever".

 

I generally agree with luke here, I don't want to see JJ right away if we can help it. Considering pretty much everyone aside from miley should be available today, I don't think we NEED to use him in a game we are winning. We have other good back end relievers that can close one down. Maybe go Soria, Knebel, Hader for 1 each and have Guerra bridge the gap to the 7th if Chacin starts to struggle. Jeffress will have to pitch and will probably have to pitch a game we are winning, I just don't think I'd do it right away. Everyone here is speculating as to why he's struggling right now, nobody definitively knows if it's a mental thing or his stuff simply isn't as sharp, or if it's simple BABIP regression against some of the best hitters in baseball. I won't fault CC if he goes to him right away, but based on the knowledge we have I think I would try to avoid using him if possible...at least today.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

You can't just bench the guy who has arguably been the best reliever in the league after a rough week. That would be akin to benching Yelich right now due to poor play,

 

It's not really like that, in my opinion. Relievers are supposed to be utilized that way. And regardless of how many times JJ successfully worked over multiple innings this year, I'm sure there's plenty of evidence showing that, like most relievers, he's best in his first inning of work and against the first few batters he faces - let alone against a team like LAD and the top of their order. That's just how bullpens go. And the accumulation of innings and appearances throughout the year is a factor, too. He's got a ton of miles on him right now. It's not the same as pulling Yelich at all, in my opinion.

 

Also, hitters had a BABIP of .249 against him this year. He was good, but more of a candidate for "luckiest good reliever" than "best reliever".

 

There, I fixed your quote for you.

 

There is plenty of blame to go around. Does Jeffress deserve some? Yep. But so do Burnes and the middle of the order, especially our MVP. You stick with the guys that got you here. That means pitching Jeffress in key spots, and expecting Yelich to get key hits. This pen has been great, but it is not good enough to overcome Jeffress suddenly becoming Oliver Drake.

[tmwiese55]

JJ has given up 5 hits in these two games. At least 3 of them were bloopers/dribblers, then the HR and I don't remember the 5th. And the one walk which he just missed freezing a guy on a curveball 3-2 pitch. If two of those 3 bloops are the outs they're supposed to be things look way different. I just hope they cruise to an easy W today so there is no drama to worry about, but after a day off I'm more than confident in JJ if needed.

[KeithStone53151]

JJ has given up 5 hits in these two games. At least 3 of them were bloopers/dribblers, then the HR and I don't remember the 5th. And the one walk which he just missed freezing a guy on a curveball 3-2 pitch. If two of those 3 bloops are the outs they're supposed to be things look way different. I just hope they cruise to an easy W today so there is no drama to worry about, but after a day off I'm more than confident in JJ if needed.

 

I can understand that and I know some of his hits allowed were weak. Turner is also notoriously a beast in the postseason. I'd just prefer to give him one more day and use other relievers today if possible. We certainly have that option. I'll trust whatever CC decides here, if they do go with Jeffress he should have a quick hook though.

[coolhandluke121]

 

You can't just bench the guy who has arguably been the best reliever in the league after a rough week. That would be akin to benching Yelich right now due to poor play,

 

It's not really like that, in my opinion. Relievers are supposed to be utilized that way. And regardless of how many times JJ successfully worked over multiple innings this year, I'm sure there's plenty of evidence showing that, like most relievers, he's best in his first inning of work and against the first few batters he faces - let alone against a team like LAD and the top of their order. That's just how bullpens go. And the accumulation of innings and appearances throughout the year is a factor, too. He's got a ton of miles on him right now. It's not the same as pulling Yelich at all, in my opinion.

 

Also, hitters had a BABIP of .249 against him this year. He was good, but more of a candidate for "luckiest good reliever" than "best reliever".

 

There, I fixed your quote for you, in my opinion.

 

 

We could do this all day. Comparing pulling a struggling reliever in his 2nd inning of work to benching an MVP hitter is a reach at best.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If he leaves Miley in there and Miley gives up a ding dong or double down the line CC gets ripped for that too.

 

Whoever would do that has an unrealistic view of the bullpen over the course of playing an opponent up to 7 straight games, no matter how good or deep it is. Bringing in relievers doesn't guarantee any sort of improved success over a starter that's rolling, has a pitch count in the low 70's, and is completely settled into the moment. I'd love to see some flexibility in how soon games are handed over to the pen based on how the starter is performing. Miley was great on Saturday and there was no reason to pull him when CC did - even if the pen is your strength, getting into it knowing your best reliever (Hader) is not pitching and forcing it to get you 10 outs when the Dodgers were going to start attacking platoon advantages with substitutions is asking a lot. The more looks these good Dodger hitters get of the relievers, the more difficult it will be for them to get outs.

 

It's great having a deep bullpen, but I think the rush to get into it at times burns a team, particularly when your starter has just retired 16 straight and had a 2 run lead.

[MrTPlush]

I think the double play gave Counsell a false sense of confidence that Jeremy Jeffress was a little more okay than he was. After a bad first game, giving up a hit, and then walking a guy with the bases loaded is probably a sign he doesn't have it. I am not buying into the "well he almost froze him on a curveball" talk. Almost doesn't matter and really doesn't in a situation like that. You have to throw a strike, HAVE TO! It didn't help matters that he couldn't dispose of a garbage hitter and instead walked him to give up a run. That was not the situation to gamble and risk walking a batter. Definitely not when it is an absolutely poor hitter. If that was Turner (or another really good hitter) maybe then you don't just toss a cookie cutter FB and instead risk walking in a run because that is better than a grand slam. You just can't do it there though.

 

But like I said in the IGT it isn't like the other bullpen options were that great and despite an inexplicable walk he wasn't a total dumpster fire. I wish Junior Guerra would have gotten a chance to start an inning with a clean slate to see what he could do. I think he could help us, but obviously Counsell just wants to stick to the guys who have done it all year. Win with them or die.

[coolhandluke121]

The sky isn't falling, go back out tonight with the same strategy that got you here and win the game.

 

I agree, but that strategy involves trusting the depth of the pen, not just riding JJ and Hader all the time. In that sense, they're not sticking with what got them here, and it's not just Saturday. It's letting Hader hit just so he can pitch a 3rd inning with a 5-1 lead. It's giving JJ an extra inning with a 4-0 lead against the Rockies when you have a golden opportunity to get someone else some work. It's putting JJ and Hader out there in the 9th on a wet mound with a 6-0 lead against the Rockies. Each one of those moves is fine on its own, but all of them combined constitute a strain on your best relievers and a definite deviation from their year-long strategy of making it a 25-man team where you rely on contributions from everyone.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

We could do this all day. Comparing pulling a struggling reliever in his 2nd inning of work to benching an MVP hitter is a reach at best.

 

The argument is playoff teams need to ride their best players, and the blame needs to be placed on them if they struggle and the team loses. That is all. It's the same argument regarding Jeffress and Yelich. If Jeffress doesn't pitch well, this team doesn't move on, in my opinion. If Yelich doesn't start hitting, this team doesn't move on, in my opinion. I mean yeah, they might have a slight chance to do it if one of those happens, but I don't think there is any way they make the WS if both Jeffress and Yelich continue to struggle. Neither is replaceable.

 

I saw and continue to see posts blaming Jeffress for the loss. Very rarely is only one player to blame for a loss. That idea is far from a reach.

[KeithStone53151]

The sky isn't falling, go back out tonight with the same strategy that got you here and win the game.

 

I agree, but that strategy involves trusting the depth of the pen, not just riding JJ and Hader all the time. In that sense, they're not sticking with what got them here, and it's not just Saturday. It's letting Hader hit just so he can pitch a 3rd inning with a 5-1 lead. It's giving JJ an extra inning with a 4-0 lead against the Rockies when you have a golden opportunity to get someone else some work. It's putting JJ and Hader out there in the 9th on a wet mound with a 6-0 lead against the Rockies. Each one of those moves is fine on its own, but all of them combined constitute a strain on your best relievers and a definite deviation from their year-long strategy of making it a 25-man team where you rely on contributions from everyone.

 

This is right. What got us here is general bullpen depth. Pitchers like Hader are a definite strength, but another strength is our 4th-8th best relievers being as good as anybody's in baseball and are much better than a version of Jeffress that isn't clicking right now. Guerra is a prime candidate for it as he was very very good in September. Woodruff is another example and guy that was good in September, and look what he's doing.

 

I'm not saying we straight bench Jeffress, but giving him an extra day and using him in more platoon friendly situations is probably a good idea over the next few days. Also ideally in lower leverage situations.

[coolhandluke121]

 

It's great having a deep bullpen, but I think the rush to get into it at times burns a team, particularly when your starter has just retired 16 straight and had a 2 run lead.

 

I think the schedule was a huge factor. They want him to be able to go 2 times through the order on 3 days rest on Wednesday. ~75 pitches was probably a number they had in their head, and a reasonable one at that. Third time through the order, seeing a perennial MVP caliber RHB, is a big factor too. And look at Ryu; he was just as unhittable as Miley, if not better, until all of a sudden he wasn't.

 

There's just too many good, evidence-based reasons to pull him. You can't deviate from good strategies on hunches all the time. He had to get Taylor out if he wanted to go 6. It was a fair chance but it wasn't meant to be.

[KeithStone53151]

 

It's great having a deep bullpen, but I think the rush to get into it at times burns a team, particularly when your starter has just retired 16 straight and had a 2 run lead.

 

I think the schedule was a huge factor. They want him to be able to go 2 times through the order on 3 days rest on Wednesday. ~75 pitches was probably a number they had in their head, and a reasonable one at that. Third time through the order, seeing a perennial MVP caliber RHB, is a big factor too. And look at Ryu; he was just as unhittable as Miley, if not better, until all of a sudden he wasn't.

 

There's just too many good, evidence-based reasons to pull him. You can't deviate from good strategies on hunches all the time. He had to get Taylor out if he wanted to go 6. It was a fair chance but it wasn't meant to be.

 

I was mildly annoyed by pulling Miley there, but as noted if they intend on having him pitching Wednesday I would understand it a bit more. We will be pretty thin on pitching if he doesn't pitch Wednesday so I'm hoping he does.

 

I'll be a bit annoyed if he lets Hader pitch 3 innings today. Gotta make it 2 max so he's available on Wednesday if we get a lead. I could also get onboard with him simply being a 1 inning closer during this 3 game stretch so he's available everyday.

[tmwiese55]

Yea my almost froze a guy on the curve type line isn't trying to say walking the guy isn't bad, I'm bringing it up to say that he wasn't drastically way off on any of those pitches in that AB, including the ball 4. Unlike say Knebel back when he was struggling and the ball was nowhere near the plate, the curveball wouldn't break and the C would almost have to stand up to catch it. When you see that you know somethings up, when a guy barely misses a perfect pitch by 2 inches I don't think there's too much to read into. That's all I meant by it.

 

For the yanking Miley. This has been their strategy all year, the "there's no reason to yank him" just isn't true. First, they've done it all year. Second, the stats/math show this 3rd time through the order stuff is mathematically sound. They already pushed it a couple hitters more than planned. At which point you had their 345 of the order coming up, and the first guy a RH hitter who's very good. This is the exact situation the whole strategy is trying to avoid. So you go to the guy who mows down righties. It's perfectly sound strategy that has worked all year and got us to this point.

[coolhandluke121]

 

I'm not saying we straight bench Jeffress, but giving him an extra day and using him in more platoon friendly situations is probably a good idea over the next few days. Also ideally in lower leverage situations.

 

Exactly. I don't want to be grouped in with anyone suggesting they bench him or that he's all of a sudden not a good reliever. I didn't call for JJ to come out of the game after the walk to Barnes, for example. Not even in hindsight. He had the right to finish that inning and he's a great ground-ball pitcher. But when a reliever sits for half an inning and you bring him back in against the top of the order after he labored like that, you're asking for trouble. He may have worked multiple innings on many occasions this year, but not against the best hitters from the best offense in the NL when he's been struggling a lot in the playoffs already. I am very confident that the statistics on relievers in their 2nd inning of work are similar to stats on starters working their 3rd time through the order.