Dodgers v Brewers

[Eye Black]

I don’t have a great feeling about Monday’s game, but I am confident the Brewers will win at least one in LA and bring it back to Milwaukee.

 

I think this series is going to last seven games. I can’t even imagine how stressful a Game 7 in this series would be.

[benji]

Not sure if this has been mentioned elsewhere, but why has Rob Edwards been replaced as the Miller Park PA announcer for the playoff games? I don't remember this being the case in 2008 or 2011. I don't like it. I want to hear that familiar voice when I go see games at Miller Park. I'm hoping it for some reason other than MLB dictating this situation (like perhaps Edwards had a vacation planned or some other personal situation). I also sure hope he didn't retire.

 

I thought I read somewhere that he is sick?

 

 

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[josh]

Our MVP has pretty much been a thunderous fart since the start of October

 

[ilikewisco]

Don't mean to rehash this, but if you throw 95+ why ever throw anything but high heat to Turner? He hasn't been able to get around on it all year. The long out to center he had was the only one he's hit solid, and it was still just a deep fly out. Until he shows he can catch up to a high fastball that is all he should see from pretty much anyone but Cedeno in our pen.

 

I'm still on the JJ train, but let Knebel handle the 9th for now. They've got the arms in the pen, play the hot hand.

[MrTPlush]

Normally being in a 1-1 tie I’d feel okay...but for our pen to blow it big time in both games is a pretty bad sign moving forward. We depend on them to win games and pitch more innings than our starters(sometimes the entire game pretty much). If they can’t get it done just start digging the Brewers a grave.

[AZBrewCrew]

Everyone needs to chill and remember we are the 22nd lowest payroll in MLB competing against the 3rd highest payroll. We aren’t supposed to be playing right now,MLB certainly doesn’t want us playing right now. Enjoy it for what it is and realize that the odds are disproportionately stacked against us and to only lose by a run and have the series split is pretty freaking awesome.

 

 

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[tomwopat]

Just read that MLB told Suter to stay out of the dugout since he's not on the 40 man. He tweeted about it, but then deleted the tweet.

 

How come this wasn't an issue in the regular season? Is it different in the post season? And what difference does it make if he's there if he isn't playing??

 

Now I see he deleted that tweet. What is really going on here?

 

I think the rule has good intent, have to draw the line somewhere to keep every Tom/Dick/Harry out of the dugout, potentially serving as additional coaches. So limiting it to the 40 man roster seems pragmatic. That the 60-day DL doesn't count against the 40 man roster is another technicality, so they could make the letter of law more closely match the intent of the law by amending the rule to include the 60-day DL too.

 

Whether they want to add this complication for this specific instance is another question.

[MrTPlush]

Why are we destined to suck and drop 2/3 in LA? I have seen it even before the series started. The Dodgers were worse at home vs. the road. Our road record matches their home record.

 

This isn’t college basketball. Home field advantage isn’t that big.

[Patrick425]

The schedule for the home plate umpires in this series is as follows...

 

Game #1: Scott Barry

Game #2: Alan Porter

Game #3: Gerry Davis (crew chief)

Game #4: Hunter Wendelstedt

Game #5: Jim Wolf

Game #6: Brian Gorman

Game #7: Greg Gibson

 

Here is a great resource for evaluating how accurate each home plate umpire is:

Plot of Called Balls in Strike Zone (BiZ%) and Called Strikes Outside of Strike Zone (SoZ%)

 

You have to zoom in to find some of the umpires. The “best” home plate umpires are the ones in the upper right corner of the graph.

 

Game two home plate umpire Alan Porter for instance is very good as compared to his peers. Of the pitches Porter has called balls just 6.2% were actually in the strike zone (good), and of the pitches Porter has called strikes just 13.9% were actually balls (very good).

 

Others in this series have a much higher SoZ% including Davis (20.5%), Gorman (19.9%), Wendelstedt (18.4%), Barry (17.9%), and Wolf (17.6%). Potential Game #7 home plate umpire Gibson is also solid at 15.6% of his called strikes actually being outside the zone.

 

It just kills me that Joe West is the crew chief for the ALCS. Umpires have absolutely zero accountability.

[SRB]

The Dodgers got extremely lucky in both games. I don't know how you could have watched the games and not conclude that. They deserved to lose both.

 

That being said, luck obviously helped us get to where we are. (Remember when a Cardinals runner fell over?!)

 

It's just frustrating to lose such a pivotal game when we should be up 2-0.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Everyone needs to chill and remember we are the 22nd lowest payroll in MLB competing against the 3rd highest payroll. We aren’t supposed to be playing right now,MLB certainly doesn’t want us playing right now. Enjoy it for what it is and realize that the odds are disproportionately stacked against us and to only lose by a run and have the series split is pretty freaking awesome.

 

 

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That's precisely why we can't give away a game like we did last night. I really believe Monday's game decides the series. Either the Brewers bounce back, assure it's coming back to Milwaukee and play with house money for the next two days, or they go 1-2, lose all the mojo and I think stand a good chance of ending this in LA.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Again, I just can't get behind the idea that we "gave away" Game 2. This is the playoffs. It's a totally different brand of baseball. You're getting the best hitters at their most focused, and every out is that much harder to get.

 

It's good to be up 3 runs in the 7th. But nine outs is a lot to get, and good teams win postseason games after trailing late all the time.

 

I was very nervous in the 9th inning of Game 3 of the NLDS, despite a 6-0 lead, because things can turn really quickly. Just off the top of my head, the Cubs did the same thing very late against the Giants in 2016, and the Royals did it to the A's in 2014. And in those cases, compared to Game 2 yesterday, the trailing team was either down by more (Royals) or had a lot fewer outs to work with (Cubs).

 

I get it. Emotional investment makes everything feel so different for fans. We will think it's over down 1-0 in the 8th but be terrified of losing it up 5-1 in the 9th. For me personally, I am just trying to treat every inning as 0-0 because that seems much closer to how the postseason operates. Wins are not wins until the last out is recorded. Thinking any other way just feels like a recipe for a roller coaster of expectation, and the games are nerve-wracking enough. Having to map them on to a win probability chart is too much for me.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think they gave it away by leaving Jeffress out there to serve up a meatball when everyone in the state of Wisconsin knew something wasn't right and hasn't been for some time. I get the dilemma he's put Counsell in though, because if he's out of gas or mentally out of it they are done anyway. He's been a crutch all year so there's no way they're doing anything without him.

[FVBrewerFan]

Why are we destined to suck and drop 2/3 in LA? I have seen it even before the series started. The Dodgers were worse at home vs. the road. Our road record matches their home record.

 

This isn’t college basketball. Home field advantage isn’t that big.

 

I don't know, why are you destined to be negative? Destined to suck? Best record in NL, celebrated in the Cardinals locker room, beat the Cubs and celebrated there. Swept the Rockies and now even 1-1 in the NLCS. You really cant just sit back and enjoy that?

 

By the way, even if they DO drop 2/3 in LA I'm fine with that. Win two games at home yo make it the WS? Yea, I'll take it.

[NYChez]

How about mixing up the top of the lineup a bit? Have Grandy hit leadoff and protect Yelich with Moose. Braun gets a night off against a tough righty.

[Ennder]

Everyone needs to chill and remember we are the 22nd lowest payroll in MLB competing against the 3rd highest payroll. We aren’t supposed to be playing right now,MLB certainly doesn’t want us playing right now. Enjoy it for what it is and realize that the odds are disproportionately stacked against us and to only lose by a run and have the series split is pretty freaking awesome.

 

 

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This isn't really how baseball works. High payroll is not a free win at all in the playoffs. If we lose this playoff round it has almost nothing to do with payroll.

[adambr2]

Why are we destined to suck and drop 2/3 in LA? I have seen it even before the series started. The Dodgers were worse at home vs. the road. Our road record matches their home record.

 

This isn’t college basketball. Home field advantage isn’t that big.

 

I don't know, why are you destined to be negative? Destined to suck? Best record in NL, celebrated in the Cardinals locker room, beat the Cubs and celebrated there. Swept the Rockies and now even 1-1 in the NLCS. You really cant just sit back and enjoy that?

 

By the way, even if they DO drop 2/3 in LA I'm fine with that. Win two games at home yo make it the WS? Yea, I'll take it.

 

I think you misunderstood his message. It was anything but negative.

[KeithStone53151]

I think they gave it away by leaving Jeffress out there to serve up a meatball when everyone in the state of Wisconsin knew something wasn't right and hasn't been for some time. I get the dilemma he's put Counsell in though, because if he's out of gas or mentally out of it they are done anyway. He's been a crutch all year so there's no way they're doing anything without him.

 

I understand that thought, I also think that if he's not right, we need to pivot to other guys and shift him to low leverage role immediately. Just because Jeffress has gotten us here doesn't mean we have to sink or swim on his arm. We have other guys, I'm not definitively going to say that he needs to move to a low leverage role immediately...I'll trust CC and Stearns regardless of what they decide. Peralta has yet to pitch, Guerra has barely pitched. I understand both are flyball pitchers that will play up a bit in a more pitcher friendly environment, so pitching them in LA makes sense. We will have to try and use them in some games. Cedeno, Jeffress and Burnes have all struggled so far. We probably should plan on Hader for 2 and Knebel for 1 in any game we are winning. Or honestly get through 7 by any means necessary and give the ball to Hader to finish. He is our best pitcher against both RHB and LHB.

 

Above all else, Yelich needs to get back going. He's a guy I don't think we can win unless he gets rolling.

[KeithStone53151]

How about mixing up the top of the lineup a bit? Have Grandy hit leadoff and protect Yelich with Moose. Braun gets a night off against a tough righty.

 

I don't hate the idea to be honest. Give either Braun or Aguilar the day off as a bat off the bench later in the game. If it's Aguilar, you go with Schoop at 2b and Shaw at 1b. I suspect he's been working with Coles in the cages, only way to explain him being completely unused.

 

Granderson

Yelich

Cain

Shaw

Moustakas

Schoop

Pina

Arcia

 

You can PH Braun for Granderson when they inevitably put in a lefty in that spot. You also could PH aguilar for Shaw at that point in the lineup if they go with a lefty there. I don't know that CC will do that, we will see.

[Boomer5]

We lost one game by one run vs a great team with our best player completely crashing to earth. As they say Relax.

 

JJ is a problem. He probably can’t be trusted the rest of this series. Yelich must start hitting. But don’t count this team out. The formula is CC and DJ find a way.

[MrTPlush]

They are going to trust JJ so he better figure it out. I bet he finds himself on a shorter leash, but the dude is going to be trotted out there if we are winning/tied.

[Boomer5]

They are going to trust JJ so he better figure it out. I bet he finds himself on a shorter leash, but the dude is going to be trotted out there if we are winning/tied.

 

That would be a mistake. Most of the runs we have allowed so far in the playoffs came with him on the mound.

 

I’m a huge fan of JJ but he isn’t getting it done and when our offense is this bad our bullpen startegty is only as strong as our weakest pitcher.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

They are going to trust JJ so he better figure it out. I bet he finds himself on a shorter leash, but the dude is going to be trotted out there if we are winning/tied.

 

That would be a mistake. Most of the runs we have allowed so far in the playoffs came with him on the mound.

 

I’m a huge fan of JJ but he isn’t getting it done and when our offense is this bad our bullpen startegty is only as strong as our weakest pitcher.

 

You can't just bench the guy who has arguably been the best reliever in the league after a rough week. That would be akin to benching Yelich right now due to poor play, and if they did that, the majority of fans at this site would grab torches and pitchforks. I think we already saw Counsell take precautions by bringing Jeffress in in the 7th inning, rather than holding him for the 9th.

 

The guy has been nails this year, probably the MVP of the pitching staff. There is no doubt in my mind that he is going to pitch in huge, meaningful spots over the next three days. Will it be successful? I sure hope so. But there is absolutely no way that they are going to move him to a mop-up role at this point. None. Whether they sink or swim, JJ is going to have a major role it it, like it or not.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I agree that they are joined at the hip with him, and if he can't pitch they are done, but nobody can really believe he is our best reliever. That is Hader and it isn't close. Yes, he's been very good this season, but he was downright lucky with BABIP this year and when they are both at the top of their game it is Hader all the way. Would anyone here really prefer JJ to Hader in the 9th inning of game 7?

[TURBO]

I think we already saw Counsell take precautions by bringing Jeffress in in the 7th inning, rather than holding him for the 9th.

 

 

True, however, trotting him back out there for the 8th was not very smart... Hindsight is always 20/20 of course, but he was shaky in the 7th, and trying to use him for another inning was not the most sound idea. For the most part, CC has done a great job, even though I am one of his critics at times, however, it sometimes feels like he is the last one in the park to see that his pitchers don't have it on certain nights and in certain situations...