Dodgers v Brewers

[coolhandluke121]

I may be the only guy walking around in a Brewers jersey in LA today! So fired up. Got my tix for next week too so very much looking forward to this.

 

Aside from my obvious excitement for the Crew...I love some things about this series. Both teams are extremely likable. I don't think you've always been able to say that about the Dodgers, but there has been a real culture change in the organization since McCourt sold that has made the team fun to watch and root for. I even find Puig entertaining...the guy is harmless. The Brewers clubhouse has been amazing...it's been so fun to watch this team gel.

 

You've got the best two front offices in the NL. I love what Stearns/Counsell have done. A scrappy counter insurgent move to get competitive and try new things. Exactly what they should do as a small market team. The Dodgers have certainly used their payroll power to ramp up, but to their credit it's been more than that with guys like Turner, Muncy & Taylor. Funny thing is their young guys are just starting to hit...the Dodgers are built much more for the future than other big market NL teams like the Cubs.

 

I'll give the nod to the Dodgers in talent and acknowledge they should be the favorite, but what I love about the Brewers is they are perfectly built to exceed expectations and win close games. That makes them dangerous. I think they pull it out...Crew in 7!

 

Same here. Love the Brewers, respect the heck out of both teams. The Dodgers do get to spend a lot, but at least they don't spend impulsively like when Magic first joined the ownership group. I hate when a big market team just tries to buy a title with impulsive decisions. At least the Dodgers kept their best young prospects instead of mortgaging their future. Sustainable success and good management is respectable, even with their big market advantage.

[Hambrewer]

Is it possible that Counsell is pulling some extreme trickery on the Dodgers tonight?

 

I think most people would agree that Wade Miley is a much stronger starting pitcher than Gio Gonzalez. And Miley is on regular rest after pitching Sunday. So why pitch Gio tonight over Miley?

 

Half of the Dodgers lineup is a platoon. So what would the Dodgers do if the Brewers replaced Gio with Woodruff after the first batter? Their options would be to either (1) use the wrong side of their platoon against Woodruff and then assumedly Burnes or (2) burn four of their five bench players to readjust their platoon. That would leave only Austin Barnes on their bench (and teams are reluctant to burn their last backup catcher). It would also leave them with no moves if we used Xavier Cedeno against their LH batters later in the game (maybe that's a reason he's on the roster).

 

Anyway, it would be interesting if they did it. I tried to run it by my wife but she doesn't understand and also couldn't care less so I had to tell somebody my crazy theory.

[KeithStone53151]

Is it possible that Counsell is pulling some extreme trickery on the Dodgers tonight?

 

I think most people would agree that Wade Miley is a much stronger starting pitcher than Gio Gonzalez. And Miley is on regular rest after pitching Sunday. So why pitch Gio tonight over Miley?

 

Half of the Dodgers lineup is a platoon. So what would the Dodgers do if the Brewers replaced Gio with Woodruff after the first batter? Their options would be to either (1) use the wrong side of their platoon against Woodruff and then assumedly Burnes or (2) burn four of their five bench players to readjust their platoon. That would leave only Austin Barnes on their bench (and teams are reluctant to burn their last backup catcher). It would also leave them with no moves if we used Xavier Cedeno against their LH batters later in the game (maybe that's a reason he's on the roster).

 

Anyway, it would be interesting if they did it. I tried to run it by my wife but she doesn't understand and also couldn't care less so I had to tell somebody my crazy theory.

 

Setting it up this way gives miley 2 starts in Milwaukee, and that's beneficial as a ground ball pitcher. That likely factored in. I doubt gg faces one guy, but I fully expect a pretty intense chess match between the two. Both are good managers and sharp guys, so should be a good one.

[adambr2]

Is it possible that Counsell is pulling some extreme trickery on the Dodgers tonight?

 

I think most people would agree that Wade Miley is a much stronger starting pitcher than Gio Gonzalez. And Miley is on regular rest after pitching Sunday. So why pitch Gio tonight over Miley?

 

Half of the Dodgers lineup is a platoon. So what would the Dodgers do if the Brewers replaced Gio with Woodruff after the first batter? Their options would be to either (1) use the wrong side of their platoon against Woodruff and then assumedly Burnes or (2) burn four of their five bench players to readjust their platoon. That would leave only Austin Barnes on their bench (and teams are reluctant to burn their last backup catcher). It would also leave them with no moves if we used Xavier Cedeno against their LH batters later in the game (maybe that's a reason he's on the roster).

 

Anyway, it would be interesting if they did it. I tried to run it by my wife but she doesn't understand and also couldn't care less so I had to tell somebody my crazy theory.

 

It's an interesting theory. My response would be that I don't think there's trickery going on, that it's more based on Gio's historical success against the Dodgers. With that said, Gio being out after 2-3 innings or before his first AB wouldn't surprise me at all depending on how things are falling. That same scenario wouldn't really surprise me behind any starter except maybe Chacin. It's just how we play our cards with our pitching staff and having multiple long guys who didn't even pitch last series plus an extra pitcher this series makes it even more likely IMO.

[SRB]

Is it possible that Counsell is pulling some extreme trickery on the Dodgers tonight?

 

I think most people would agree that Wade Miley is a much stronger starting pitcher than Gio Gonzalez. And Miley is on regular rest after pitching Sunday. So why pitch Gio tonight over Miley?

 

Half of the Dodgers lineup is a platoon. So what would the Dodgers do if the Brewers replaced Gio with Woodruff after the first batter? Their options would be to either (1) use the wrong side of their platoon against Woodruff and then assumedly Burnes or (2) burn four of their five bench players to readjust their platoon. That would leave only Austin Barnes on their bench (and teams are reluctant to burn their last backup catcher). It would also leave them with no moves if we used Xavier Cedeno against their LH batters later in the game (maybe that's a reason he's on the roster).

 

Anyway, it would be interesting if they did it. I tried to run it by my wife but she doesn't understand and also couldn't care less so I had to tell somebody my crazy theory.

 

I think the risk would outweigh the reward on that one. If the Dodgers lineup was totally incompetent against RHP then maybe, but they're not, so you would be burning a pitcher for a platoon advantage against a few hitters (likely more than cancelled out by the remainder of the Dodgers lineup pummeling RHP).

[Patrick425]

The schedule for the home plate umpires in this series is as follows...

 

Game #1: Scott Barry

Game #2: Alan Porter

Game #3: Gerry Davis (crew chief)

Game #4: Hunter Wendelstedt

Game #5: Jim Wolf

Game #6: Brian Gorman

Game #7: Greg Gibson

 

Here is a great resource for evaluating how accurate each home plate umpire is:

Plot of Called Balls in Strike Zone (BiZ%) and Called Strikes Outside of Strike Zone (SoZ%)

 

You have to zoom in to find some of the umpires. The “best” home plate umpires are the ones in the upper right corner of the graph.

 

Game two home plate umpire Alan Porter for instance is very good as compared to his peers. Of the pitches Porter has called balls just 6.2% were actually in the strike zone (good), and of the pitches Porter has called strikes just 13.9% were actually balls (very good).

 

Others in this series have a much higher SoZ% including Davis (20.5%), Gorman (19.9%), Wendelstedt (18.4%), Barry (17.9%), and Wolf (17.6%). Potential Game #7 home plate umpire Gibson is also solid at 15.6% of his called strikes actually being outside the zone.

 

[sarcasm]Geez...what a surprise. Joe West is one of the worst umps by far[/sarcasm]. Could not find Angel Hernandez on that graph.

[Eye Black]

Angel is on the graph, he isn’t listed as great but also isn’t near the worst of them. For some of the umpires you have to click the dots to have their names appear.

[stoutdude04]

Am I reading that correctly that Porter is very good while getting about 20% of his calls incorrect? If so, that's one of every 5 pitches being called wrong. I wonder what it would be if you took out pitches that are clearly balls or clearly strikes? 1 out of 4...3? These guys should be weathermen in the off season.

[Patrick425]

The umpires' families/friends were sitting in the two rows in front of us last night. That was interesting to say the least.

[PeaveyFury]

Nice that we have a statistically good umpire behind the plate tonight, with relatively poor Gerry Davis on deck for game 3. I'll add that Scott Barry lived up to his below average reputation last night, as that Kratz strike 3 call was horrendous.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Game 2 starter Ryu, like most major league pitchers, has a pretty significant dropoff in numbers the 2nd time through the order (.576 1st, .724 2nd). Will the Dodgers continue to use a traditional pitching model as the Brewers limit most Dodgers hitters to one look a night? If the Dodgers don't adjust, it statistically gives the Brewers a notable advantage.

 

Note: Game 3 starter Walker Buehler holds up very well multiple times through (.512 1st, .592 2nd) while Game 4 starter Rich Hill becomes significantly less effective (.511 1st, .819 2nd)

 

Hopefully Roberts feels compelled to keep giving Brewers batters multiple looks. It doesn't guarantee anything, but the math tilts the Brewers way.

[BuckyBrewer61]

Nice that we have a statistically good umpire behind the plate tonight, with relatively poor Gerry Davis on deck for game 3. I'll add that Scott Barry lived up to his below average reputation last night, as that Kratz strike 3 call was horrendous.

 

But so was the Justin Turner strike 3 call against Soria. We came out ahead in that deal.

[obobo55new]

I fully expected something like this. The brewers absolutely need Chacin to pitch in LA to save the bullpen over 3 straight days.

 

Really think this is the reason why Chacin goes in #3. Hope he can give you a longer start than the other options and allow for a pretty rested pen in #4.

 

Still very curious who starts that game and #5 though. Might just depend on the series situation. If up 3-0, might go with Guerra and see how many innings he can go (even if he gives up several runs). If it 2-1 or 1-2, you have to really pitch the pen harder.

[DHonks]

I’m pretty sure Counsel understands the critiques that you need to manage a 7-game series differently than a 5-gamer. That’s why I think he wants this thing done in 4-5 games, with a week to rest.

 

As much as I think Peralta is there in case of a blowout or extra innings affair, I think his natural cutter could be huge vs this Dodgers lineup that loves to try to ambush fastballs. We saw they also love to swing at high cheese too, and that’s his pitch. We’re all expecting Miley for 3-5 and then Burnes, but maybe they go Miley for 3-5, Peralta for 2-3, then Burnes and Knebel/Jeffress to finish

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

That is a good point about Peralta and fastballs. I will add, though, that the Dodgers are also one of the more disciplined, patient lineuos out there. For a guy who struggles with control like Freddy, that scares me.

 

Hopefully Miley can muster a clean 3 tonight. I think between Guerra, Burnes, and Freddy, we will have guys who can cover innings in the absence of Hader. Knebel, JJ, and Soria didn't throw a ton of pitches either, so they should be okay.

[BuckyBrewer61]

I get the logic of why people worry about the bullpen after using Johnny Wholestaff in game 1. But:

 

1) It worked. Again. Its worth using your best guys when you win. I have to chuckle when I hear the pundits insinuate the Brewers’ strategy may be flawed because now guys are tired. Isn’t it more important that they won the game? Would you rather be the Dodgers down 0-1 right now?

 

2). This Brewers bullpen is just a whole other animal. Hader is down for today, clearly, and yes that’s big but he doesn’t pitch back-to-back days ever.

 

The rest of the guys can still go, including a number of really good relievers, and with a guaranteed off day tomorrow. Burnes can go 2 or 3. Soria. Knebel. Jeffress. And even Guerra or Peralta can give some quality innings. Would we worry about any of these guy pitching two straight days in July? Then why worry so much now?

 

Plus, god willing it won’t happen, but we may put up a stinker today. Then our long guys eat innings and our full bullpen in available for game 3, having at least earned us one win.

 

Counsell is a master right now.

[tmwiese55]

Right, almost all relievers can go back to back days. The only time to be concerned about this is the 3 straight in the middle. But really in 5/7 games you can use them very freely. And knowing you only have to win 4 games, it makes great sense.

[DHonks]

The entire media storyline has been Dodgers rotation vs Brewers relievers. But the Dodgers rotation has been outpitches, while our pen has been outhit

[Pugger]

I wasn't a fan of taking Miley out today. He was frustrating the Dodger hitters and was pitching fine. Plus he was getting freaking hits.

 

I get a little miffed when I hear these "experts" telling everyone CC using Hader in 3 innings yesterday was a mistake. Hader hasn't pitched in back to back games all season. He'll be ready to go on Monday. IMO all we need to do is get one of these games this week in LA.

[pacopete4]

Jeremy Jeffress sounded like a total idiot after today’s game. So there’s that.

[stoutdude04]

Jeremy Jeffress sounded like a total idiot after today’s game. So there’s that.

 

What'd he say?

[adambr2]

Jeremy Jeffress sounded like a total idiot after today’s game. So there’s that.

 

"If I’m going to give up a hit, it’s going to be a hit like that," Jeffress said of the homer. "They hit a home run, something that’s left up, you can’t take nothing away from those guys over there. They’re professionals like everybody else.

 

"Just make a pitch. That’s all I’ve got to do."

 

 

Did I miss a quote other than this? Don't really see anything idiotic here. Just standard stuff.

[jerichoholicninja]

I wasn't a fan of taking Miley out today. He was frustrating the Dodger hitters and was pitching fine. Plus he was getting freaking hits.

 

I get a little miffed when I hear these "experts" telling everyone CC using Hader in 3 innings yesterday was a mistake. Hader hasn't pitched in back to back games all season. He'll be ready to go on Monday. IMO all we need to do is get one of these games this week in LA.

 

I've seen this lots of places and it's not true.

 

He pitched on April 21 and 22, June 26 and 27, August 4 and 5, August 19 and 20, and August 29 and 30.

[brewmann04]

brewers really need to win game 3 IMO

[pacopete4]

Jeremy Jeffress sounded like a total idiot after today’s game. So there’s that.

 

"If I’m going to give up a hit, it’s going to be a hit like that," Jeffress said of the homer. "They hit a home run, something that’s left up, you can’t take nothing away from those guys over there. They’re professionals like everybody else.

 

"Just make a pitch. That’s all I’ve got to do."

 

 

Did I miss a quote other than this? Don't really see anything idiotic here. Just standard stuff.

 

#Brewers reliever Jeremy Jeffress: "You saw the hits. I ain’t got to tell nobody, man. If I say it’s lucky, it’s lucky."

 

Then doubled down when asked about the Turner homer, “he got lucky”.