Dodgers v Brewers

[dlk9s]

The more Puig talks, the happier I am. Seeing the tweet earlier tonight from Alden Gonzalez that Puig said he's "100 percent" sure LA is going back to the World Series made me happy.

 

Beat these guys.

 

Eh, whatever. He's just having fun, pumping up his team. We loved it when Aguilar said that the Cubs knew they were in trouble.

Sure, but I think there is a difference between "they know they have a problem tomorrow" and "we're going to beat Milwaukee, 4 games" or saying he's "100 percent" sure they're going back to the world series

 

Puig. Is. Just. Having. Fun.

[fondybrewfan]

I am obviously more nervous about this series than the last one but the Dodgers aren't some unbeatable juggernaut. Last time I checked the Brewers won more game and more or less split with the Dodgers.

 

Both teams should be confident after dispatching their NLDS opponents fairly easily. I understand why the media is picking the Dodgers to win as they have the big flashy pitching, I guess we will just who fares better. The Dodgers starting pitching or the Brewers bullpen. I think one is more dominant than the other and one is likely to pitch more innings than the other. No one pitches 7 innings in the playoffs anymore it seems.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Brewers lost the 7 game season series 3-4 to the Dodgers, but based on when they played there's alot to be looked at here from who the Dodgers actually faced in terms of Brewer pitching.

 

The season series occurred starting the 2nd half after the AS break - so right after all the media circus with Hader's twitter account and in the midst of a bunch of games without an offday. In looking at the 4 brewers losses, here are the pitchers who gave up most of the runs the Dodgers scored:

 

Williams

Suter

Albers

Hernan Perez

Burnes/Woodruff

Anderson

Chacin

 

Chacin of course had that bad start in LA that resulted in a 21-5 drubbing (8ER in less than 5IP) - however he was more or less forced to bite the bullet even though it was obvious he didn't have it considering it was the last game of a long road trip and the pen was gassed before flying home to start a series the next night against the Rockies. Hader had very little usage during this stretch of the season (pitched in only 2 of the 7 dodger games despite 5 of them being close late), Knebel was scuffling along, Jeffress pitched well in a few of the Brewer wins against the Dodgers, Burnes/Woodruff were just up from AAA and Soria was just getting his feet wet after the deadline trade. Many of the runs Williams gave up came at the hands of facing LH hitters, and the Brewers were in the process of finding out post-DL Albers just didn't have it. The Dodgers did win 4 games, winning two handily thanks to bad starts by Suter and Chacin and winning 2 tight contests. The 3 Brewer wins came with 2 Miley starts, one Peralta start, and their current key bullpen arms fresh and available.

 

With the exception of Chacin and improved Woodruff/Burnes from their July selves, I'd be surprised if any of the other pitchers the Dodgers did damage to even make the NLCS roster, let alone pitch meaningful innings.

[long ball]

The Brewers lost the 7 game season series 3-4 to the Dodgers, but based on when they played there's alot to be looked at here from who the Dodgers actually faced in terms of Brewer pitching.

 

The season series occurred starting the 2nd half after the AS break - so right after all the media circus with Hader's twitter account and in the midst of a bunch of games without an offday. In looking at the 4 brewers losses, here are the pitchers who gave up most of the runs the Dodgers scored:

 

Williams

Suter

Albers

Hernan Perez

Burnes/Woodruff

Anderson

Chacin

 

Chacin of course had that bad start in LA that resulted in a 21-5 drubbing (8ER in less than 5IP) - however he was more or less forced to bite the bullet even though it was obvious he didn't have it considering it was the last game of a long road trip and the pen was gassed before flying home to start a series the next night against the Rockies. Hader had very little usage during this stretch of the season (pitched in only 2 of the 7 dodger games despite 5 of them being close late), Knebel was scuffling along, Jeffress pitched well in a few of the Brewer wins against the Dodgers, Burnes/Woodruff were just up from AAA and Soria was just getting his feet wet after the deadline trade. Many of the runs Williams gave up came at the hands of facing LH hitters, and the Brewers were in the process of finding out post-DL Albers just didn't have it. The Dodgers did win 4 games, winning two handily thanks to bad starts by Suter and Chacin and winning 2 tight contests. The 3 Brewer wins came with 2 Miley starts, one Peralta start, and their current key bullpen arms fresh and available.

 

With the exception of Chacin and improved Woodruff/Burnes from their July selves, I'd be surprised if any of the other pitchers the Dodgers did damage to even make the NLCS roster, let alone pitch meaningful innings.

 

 

I looked at the previous meetings yesterday too. Interesting tidbit i found was Hader, Soria, Knebel, JJ, and Burnes combined to pitch 13.1 innings giving up 3 runs vs the Dodgers.

 

Both the Dodgers and Brewers played extremely well down the stretch. While it's fun to look at, I wouldn't get too bogged down in the head to head matchups from earlier this season.

[TURBO]

Friday is taking FOR-E-VER to get here.

 

Geez.

[KeithStone53151]

Sure, but I think there is a difference between "they know they have a problem tomorrow" and "we're going to beat Milwaukee, 4 games" or saying he's "100 percent" sure they're going back to the world series

 

Puig. Is. Just. Having. Fun.

 

He can say what he wants and be as confident as he wants. If he was like "everyone in the Brewers clubhouse knows we're the better team"...similar to Javi trash Baez...that would irritate me more. Being confident in yourself is whatever.

 

That said, I hope his comments are posted all over the Brewers clubhouse the rest of the series. In fact, I hope he provides even more motivation.

[KeithStone53151]

Looks like it's going to be GG and Miley games 1 and 2. Chacin starting game 3.

 

[bill hAll Star]

Gio, Miley, Chacin games 1, 2, 3.

 

Must really not want to face many lefties in Miller Park.

[long ball]

Counsell is totally going to piggyback Gio and Miley with Woodruff and Guerra/Peralta/Davies.

 

Force Roberts to either pinch hit in the 4th innings or let Taylor/Kemp/Freese face the RHP and keep Joc, Puig, and Muncy on the bench.

[KeithStone53151]

Gio, Miley, Chacin games 1, 2, 3.

 

Must really not want to face many lefties in Miller Park.

 

Have to assume game 4 will be started by Anderson or Davies on a short leash or go the bullpen route. Chacin pitching game 7 may depend on how he looks game 3, but this is generally a good strategy to try and keep the lefties on the bench with that short porch in left. Also allows GB pitcher Miley games 2 and 6 both at Miller Park.

[KeithStone53151]

Counsell is totally going to piggyback Gio and Miley with Woodruff and Guerra/Peralta/Davies.

 

Force Roberts to either pinch hit in the 4th innings or let Taylor/Kemp/Freese face the RHP and keep Joc, Puig, and Muncy on the bench.

 

Right, and as soon as he does that...he won't have as many PH options later for if we are winning and Hader comes in for 2 innings to mow down lefty after lefty.

[long ball]

Counsell is totally going to piggyback Gio and Miley with Woodruff and Guerra/Peralta/Davies.

 

Force Roberts to either pinch hit in the 4th innings or let Taylor/Kemp/Freese face the RHP and keep Joc, Puig, and Muncy on the bench.

 

Right, and as soon as he does that...he won't have as many PH options later for if we are winning and Hader comes in for 2 innings to mow down lefty after lefty.

 

Exactly. The Dodgers are pretty much the perfect team to "bullpen" against. Neutralize part of what makes their offense so good by either eliminating that platoon advantage or eliminate their depth early in games.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Looks like it's going to be GG and Miley games 1 and 2. Chacin starting game 3.

 

 

The idea that they might be starting Gio was bouncing around in the back of my head. I love this move. I guy who didn't throw a pitch in the NLDS is your NLCS Game 1 starter. Ultimate matchup baseball!

[KeithStone53151]

GG didn't pitch against the Dodgers this year, but last year had a 407 OPS against and in 2016 had 583 OPS against. Notables like Puig, Taylor, Turner, Grandal had a combined 2 hits against him the last 2 years combined. Someone posted this earlier and I've putzed with it a decent amount.

 

http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/stats/sortable_batter_vs_pitcher.jsp?c_id=col#season=2017&batting_team=119&batter=&pitching_team=120&pitcher=461829

[bjkrautk]

GG didn't pitch against the Dodgers this year, but last year had a 407 OPS against and in 2016 had 583 OPS against. Notables like Puig, Taylor, Turner, Grandal had a combined 2 hits against him the last 2 years combined. Someone posted this earlier and I've putzed with it a decent amount.

 

http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/stats/sortable_batter_vs_pitcher.jsp?c_id=col#season=2017&batting_team=119&batter=&pitching_team=120&pitcher=461829

 

Gio's Pitcher v. Batter data (via ESPN)

Not too surprisingly, Matt Kemp and Manny Machado are the bats to work around.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If I'm the Dodgers, I don't really care who the Brewers start - I'd just write the best, most balanced RH/LH lineup I could down on the card and roll with it so there are a diverse set of pH options for later in the game. If the Dodgers try to configure their lineup based on righty or lefty platoon advantages, I think they'd just be playing right into the Brewers' hands.

[DHonks]

I fully expected something like this. The brewers absolutely need Chacin to pitch in LA to save the bullpen over 3 straight days.

[Warning Track Power]

As a 36 year old diehard who was born, raised and still lives in Southern California, I would never hear the end of a loss to the Dodgers in the NLCS. Give me these bragging rights!

 

Let’s go Crew!

[dlk9s]

Today.

[Eye Black]

Today.

NLCS Game #1 In-Game Thread now posted and open for commentary. Let’s Gooooooo!

[Eye Black]

The schedule for the home plate umpires in this series is as follows...

 

Game #1: Scott Barry

Game #2: Alan Porter

Game #3: Gerry Davis (crew chief)

Game #4: Hunter Wendelstedt

Game #5: Jim Wolf

Game #6: Brian Gorman

Game #7: Greg Gibson

 

Here is a great resource for evaluating how accurate each home plate umpire is:

Plot of Called Balls in Strike Zone (BiZ%) and Called Strikes Outside of Strike Zone (SoZ%)

 

You have to zoom in to find some of the umpires. The “best” home plate umpires are the ones in the upper right corner of the graph.

 

Game two home plate umpire Alan Porter for instance is very good as compared to his peers. Of the pitches Porter has called balls just 6.2% were actually in the strike zone (good), and of the pitches Porter has called strikes just 13.9% were actually balls (very good).

 

Others in this series have a much higher SoZ% including Davis (20.5%), Gorman (19.9%), Wendelstedt (18.4%), Barry (17.9%), and Wolf (17.6%). Potential Game #7 home plate umpire Gibson is also solid at 15.6% of his called strikes actually being outside the zone.

[stalton]

Today.

NLCS Game #1 In-Game Thread now posted and open for commentary. Let’s Gooooooo!

Not going to lie, after having a bad week the first thing I thought of was the UGH. Thanks!

[Lathund]

A good preview of the series from Fangraphs:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-nlcs-will-be-a-study-in-contrasts/

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I may be the only guy walking around in a Brewers jersey in LA today! So fired up. Got my tix for next week too so very much looking forward to this.

 

Aside from my obvious excitement for the Crew...I love some things about this series. Both teams are extremely likable. I don't think you've always been able to say that about the Dodgers, but there has been a real culture change in the organization since McCourt sold that has made the team fun to watch and root for. I even find Puig entertaining...the guy is harmless. The Brewers clubhouse has been amazing...it's been so fun to watch this team gel.

 

You've got the best two front offices in the NL. I love what Stearns/Counsell have done. A scrappy counter insurgent move to get competitive and try new things. Exactly what they should do as a small market team. The Dodgers have certainly used their payroll power to ramp up, but to their credit it's been more than that with guys like Turner, Muncy & Taylor. Funny thing is their young guys are just starting to hit...the Dodgers are built much more for the future than other big market NL teams like the Cubs.

 

I'll give the nod to the Dodgers in talent and acknowledge they should be the favorite, but what I love about the Brewers is they are perfectly built to exceed expectations and win close games. That makes them dangerous. I think they pull it out...Crew in 7!

[TURBO]

I may be the only guy walking around in a Brewers jersey in LA today! So fired up. Got my tix for next week too so very much looking forward to this.

 

 

Hope you don't have to dodge any bullets...