Dodgers v Brewers

[KeithStone53151]

 

I feel that Santana should get the start in right and move Braun to first as well. They need a spark in the lineup and Jesús has been a black hole with runners on in the postseason. Santana is playing well and deserves to make an impact in this series before it’s too late. Braun has been playing well and won’t be benched. He’s been unlucky this postseason and could have another 3-4 hits to his name.

 

I'd be ok with that. This doesn't have to be a permanent move either. It could be just for the first 4-6 innings and double switch Shaw or Aguilar to that spot for defense later once Ryu gets pulled. I think it's critical to get the best offense possible on the field tomorrow and Santana is part of that.

 

Remember, Aguilar was a monster PH for us a lot of last year and a big part of this year. I would like to think he'll respond well to that move.

[adambr2]

Benching Braun again? He's the only player to show up to both series. Some of this is just too comical.

 

He isn't going to be benched and shouldn't, but he has a .638 OPS this postseason; to call that showing up is pretty generous. If he's shown up to both series' I would say Orlando Arcia has definitely shown up to both.

 

I would be more comfortable with Braun back at #5 where he had more success this season, but I don't know what they can really do. Aguilar is tough to trust right now. I'd just like to see Braun (or anyone) start driving the ball a little more as we just aren't picking these guys up when they get on base.

 

I don't know that benching Aguilar to get Santana here is the right call either. At this point you probably just have to stick with what got you here and hope a couple of them are ready to break out the next 2 games.

[coolhandluke121]

Benching Braun again? He's the only player to show up to both series. Some of this is just too comical.

 

If everyone "showed up" like his postseason all year they'd have won 65 games.

[PeaveyFury]

Seems like we're debating semantics a ton here, but I think it would be hard to debate saying that though Braun hasn't hit for power, he certainly has contributed more than most of the others on offense the past few games.

[owbc]

If we had to face the Dodgers top-3 pitchers all year then yes, we probably would have won about 65 games.

[tmwiese55]

When dealing with such small sample here one has to remember that Yelich cost Braun 2 hits on base running blunders. That's 57 points of OBP and more in OPS once slugging is added in from my quick eyeballing of it. Again, Braun isn't killing it or anything since mostly been all singles and he hasn't taken enough walks like he should be. But he's been the least of their problems.

[adambr2]

Here's a guy who has contributed this postseason: Manny Pina, who has gotten 12 plate appearances in the playoffs. He's reached base 8 times, a .667 OBP.

He's also well above average defensively. But no one notices his contributions, because he can't buy an AB while Erik Kratz is killing the offense at the bottom of the order. It's baffling.

[Bob Skube Snacks]

I was cool with pitching to Bellinger. You just need one out. I was surprised, though, that he wasn't pitched more carefully.

 

I'm not following this logic at all. Yes, you just need one out. So wouldn't you want to face a pitcher who gives you far and away the best chance at getting that one out?

 

The optimal move would have been to walk Bellinger to get to Grandal. Set up a force at third or second and face a struggling hitter.

 

Walking the bases loaded? Hell no ... and I don’t care if the pitcher was up or not.

 

Guerra was tiring and he’s a breaking ball pitcher. There would have been a high probability of a ball going in the dirt. Remember ... MACHADO WAS IN SCORING POSITION IN THE FIRST PLACE DUE TO A WILD PITCH! Game over if there’s another one.

 

Given how tired he was and the stakes, there was a decent probability he might walk the pitcher, who, given the situation, would be ordered not to swing the bat. Game over at that point.

 

I saw one analyst surmise that he could have thrown BP fastballs and got the out. I find that dubious, and even so, are you willing to stake a playoff game on that?

 

I think the only thing Counsell should have done was walk Bellinger. Everything else is 20/20 hindsight at its worst.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Here's a guy who has contributed this postseason: Manny Pina, who has gotten 12 plate appearances in the playoffs. He's reached base 8 times, a .667 OBP.

He's also well above average defensively. But no one notices his contributions, because he can't buy an AB while Erik Kratz is killing the offense at the bottom of the order. It's baffling.

 

Kratz hasn't been very good against the Dodgers, but overall in the playoffs he has a .316 average and .771 OPS. Plus Chacin and Miley both have been significantly better pitchers with Kratz behind the plate. I don't think that's coincidental.

[adambr2]

I was cool with pitching to Bellinger. You just need one out. I was surprised, though, that he wasn't pitched more carefully.

 

I'm not following this logic at all. Yes, you just need one out. So wouldn't you want to face a pitcher who gives you far and away the best chance at getting that one out?

 

The optimal move would have been to walk Bellinger to get to Grandal. Set up a force at third or second and face a struggling hitter.

 

Walking the bases loaded? Hell no ... and I don’t care if the pitcher was up or not.

 

Guerra was tiring and he’s a breaking ball pitcher. There would have been a high probability of a ball going in the dirt. Remember ... MACHADO WAS IN SCORING POSITION IN THE FIRST PLACE DUE TO A WILD PITCH! Game over if there’s another one.

 

Given how tired he was and the stakes, there was a decent probability he might walk the pitcher, who, given the situation, would be ordered not to swing the bat. Game over at that point.

 

I saw one analyst surmise that he could have thrown BP fastballs and got the out. I find that dubious, and even so, are you willing to stake a playoff game on that?

 

I think the only thing Counsell should have done was walk Bellinger. Everything else is 20/20 hindsight at its worst.

 

Bellinger was "struggling" too, so no your logic here is flawed. 1 for 21 entering that AB.

 

Simple solution to your concerns about Guerra, put in Cedeno. Guerra wasn't going another inning anyway. If Cedeno can't throw 3 pitches in the strike zone, well, too bad, but there's sure a lot better chance at Bellinger or Grandal coming up with a single.

 

Am I willing to stake a playoff game on being able to retire a pitcher? Uh, yeah, a lot more so than that same exhausted pitcher being able to retire a position player.

 

And it's not "20/20 hindsight" whatsoever as people were saying to do this at the time and Counsell himself said that Grandal was going to be walked to load the bases next.

[adambr2]

Here's a guy who has contributed this postseason: Manny Pina, who has gotten 12 plate appearances in the playoffs. He's reached base 8 times, a .667 OBP.

He's also well above average defensively. But no one notices his contributions, because he can't buy an AB while Erik Kratz is killing the offense at the bottom of the order. It's baffling.

 

Kratz hasn't been very good against the Dodgers, but overall in the playoffs he has a .316 average and .771 OPS. Plus Chacin and Miley both have been significantly better pitchers with Kratz behind the plate. I don't think that's coincidental.

 

Well, we need offense at the moment. I'm not saying Pina needs to start every game and catch Chacin and Kratz, but I wish they would do a better job working him in

 

As far as Miley and Chacin being better with Kratz, I'll have to take your word for it. I'm sure the stats bear it out, I just personally don't understand guys all of the sudden having much greater success with one particular catcher. I've got to imagine that some of that just becomes mental after awhile. Kratz is likely to not return next year and I don't expect Chacin to suck because of it.

[coolhandluke121]

Yeah, once again it's really all about refusing to trust role players. I know Cedeno isn't very good and you're kind of hoping he gets lucky, but when Guerra or JJ or Woodruff looks gassed or is otherwise struggling, aren't you kind of just hoping he gets lucky too? Arguably even luckier? It's baffling. That's what Cedeno is for. He could have faced Muncy when Woodruff was around 60 pitches and clearly starting to struggle, not to mention being his third time through the order. They've stopped bring in less talented pitchers when they need them in the post season, and I don't like it. A less talented pitcher is still often better than an over-worked pitcher. The whole season was a testament to how you can get good pitching from a less talented staff if you distribute the workload wisely, and now they refuse to do it.

[tmwiese55]

And I know Cedeno hasn't been great for us but I thought this last night when he came in and they had his stats up, he really did have a great year overall. One or two bad outings happen for relief pitchers, if he's on the roster to face lefties you have to let him do it or he shouldn't have been on the roster to begin with.

[pacopete4]

Benching Braun again? He's the only player to show up to both series. Some of this is just too comical.

 

If everyone "showed up" like his postseason all year they'd have won 65 games.

 

Time for you to go toss around some blame to some other players.

[pacopete4]

Here's a guy who has contributed this postseason: Manny Pina, who has gotten 12 plate appearances in the playoffs. He's reached base 8 times, a .667 OBP.

He's also well above average defensively. But no one notices his contributions, because he can't buy an AB while Erik Kratz is killing the offense at the bottom of the order. It's baffling.

 

Kratz hasn't been very good against the Dodgers, but overall in the playoffs he has a .316 average and .771 OPS. Plus Chacin and Miley both have been significantly better pitchers with Kratz behind the plate. I don't think that's coincidental.

 

Well, we need offense at the moment. I'm not saying Pina needs to start every game and catch Chacin and Kratz, but I wish they would do a better job working him in

 

As far as Miley and Chacin being better with Kratz, I'll have to take your word for it. I'm sure the stats bear it out, I just personally don't understand guys all of the sudden having much greater success with one particular catcher. I've got to imagine that some of that just becomes mental after awhile. Kratz is likely to not return next year and I don't expect Chacin to suck because of it.

 

I get that you don't understand it but it just is how it is. In a perfect world, any catcher should be able to catch a pitcher but it is just not the reality. The pitcher-catcher relationship is and has always been a weird one. Counsell found a mix that has been working for his pitchers and working quite well. The catchers on this team have been doing their jobs for the most part. Could we use an upgrade there? Yeah, just about every team probably thinks they could.

[Boomer5]

Notable OPS in the NLCS

 

Cain 655

Yelich 442

Braun 558

Jesus 708

Moose 232

Arcia 947

Shaw 917

Schoop 000

Perez 365

 

Not much a manager can do with that. The series has just been too much for our regular season stars.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Offense really fell off a cliff when it went out to LA. Maybe this is all they need.

[KeithStone53151]

I think we need to get Shaw in the lineup. Ryu actually has reverse splits on the season. 591 OPS vs RHB and 720 vs LHB. In 2017 he was far worse, but the splits were even more dramatic against LHB. We definitely should have all of Cain, Yelich, Braun, Shaw, Moustakas, Pina, Arcia in the lineup. I really don't care too much who else we try to sneak in the lineup, but all 7 of those bats should be in there.

[KeithStone53151]

You can consider getting Santana or Granderson in there instead of Aguilar if you trust Braun at 1b for 4-6 innings. I can also understand sticking with Aguilar. We are going to have a ton of thump in that lineup if all those bats are in there...will look very very good on paper.

[BuckyBrewer61]

Notable OPS in the NLCS

 

Cain 655

Yelich 442

Braun 558

Jesus 708

Moose 232

Arcia 947

Shaw 917

Schoop 000

Perez 365

 

Not much a manager can do with that. The series has just been too much for our regular season stars.

 

This.

 

Talk all you want about not walking Bellinger, leaving Woodruff in to long, etc. The pitching has been phenomenal, IMO the managing has as well. The offense is losing this series for us, plain and simple.

[coolhandluke121]

Benching Braun again? He's the only player to show up to both series. Some of this is just too comical.

 

If everyone "showed up" like his postseason all year they'd have won 65 games.

 

Time for you to go toss around some blame to some other players.

 

I blame plenty of other players so I don't see your point there. The difference is Braun's the one who's in front of a superior option against RHP's in Granderson.

 

It's time for you to start being a little more objective about Braun. The only player to show up? You can't be serious.

[homer]

Granderson career vs RHP = 850 OPS

Braun career vs RHP = 860 OPS

 

For the year Granderson has a 798 OPS against RHP and Braun 745 (difference due to OBP, SLG is identical). The problem becomes later in the game when you have to sub out Granderson against a lefty. Braun hits both sides well. Probably depends on the opponent and might not make a big difference but it's not really cut and dried.

[tmwiese55]

Granderson career vs RHP = 850 OPS

Braun career vs RHP = 860 OPS

 

For the year Granderson has a 798 OPS against RHP and Braun 745 (difference due to OBP, SLG is identical). The problem becomes later in the game when you have to sub out Granderson against a lefty. Braun hits both sides well. Probably depends on the opponent and might not make a big difference but it's not really cut and dried.

 

Pull Braun's last two months or some timeframe like that and he probably trumps him big time.

 

It is crazy that Grandy has gotten 3 ABs and smoked all 3 of them though. And with our WI sports luck, the only one that fell was the meaningless one while the other two would've won games.

[coolhandluke121]

Granderson career vs RHP = 850 OPS

Braun career vs RHP = 860 OPS

 

For the year Granderson has a 798 OPS against RHP and Braun 745 (difference due to OBP, SLG is identical). The problem becomes later in the game when you have to sub out Granderson against a lefty. Braun hits both sides well. Probably depends on the opponent and might not make a big difference but it's not really cut and dried.

 

A .798 OPS as a Blue Jay is much more impressive though. Miller Park is more hitter-friendly. But it's not just that. A big part of Milwaukee's problem is their hitters being over-aggressive and swinging at everything. Guys need to work the count more and wait for a good pitch to hit. Braun is not doing that at all.

 

ETA: And having to pull Granderson against an LHP is fine, since Braun doesn't really have dramatic splits anyway. And career splits are misleading in Braun's case. His decline from his peak has been more dramatic than Granderson's.

[tmwiese55]

Think the argument us much ado about nothing anyway since only one game has been started by a RH anyway. Any late game swaps bring in the issue of the vs LH dropoff of Grandy. So you probably don't wanna PH Grandy for Braun and then leave him in. Combine that with presumably worse D. Braun is only ok at D but I recall when we got Grandy that people posted that he is basically awful now, like sub Santana last year bad now. So it's all this about whether Grandy should've started game 3, and we won that game.