Dodgers v Brewers

[Oxy]

If Moose is a decent bunter and he's facing a lefty with the shift on, he should absolutely bunt if there isn't anybody out. I don't remember if that was the case last night.

[Ennder]

Would this be the place to revise the "why didn't Arcia bunt" thread?

 

That was a pretty easy choice.

 

Assuming average players everywhere you expect to score at least 1 run 61.5% of the time with a runner and 2nd and no outs. That goes up to 66% with runner at 3rd and 1 out.

 

So assuming the bunt is successful you gain 4.5%. Now you take into account that Pina is a very slow runner and that margin goes down. Take into account that Arcia doesn't bunt very often and the successful odds are way under 100%. Then add in a high K guy coming up to bat against a high K pitcher which lowers the odds even more. There is almost no way him bunting in that situation is a net positive.

 

If it were say Broxton on 2nd and Cain was up next it makes total sense.

[MrTPlush]

I think the move would've been only walking Bellinger. With Guerra's frequent spiking of the breaking ball and splitter you don't want to walk the bases loaded and open up the wild pitch. Also want to leave wiggle room in case of a legit walk. Plus want the next inning to start with the P if you can make it happen

 

You aren’t spiking anything against the pitcher so that is pretty irrelevant. I think I will take risking spiking a pitch to let in a run (incredibly unlikely in that situation...like less than 5%) instead of pitching to a legit hitter with a guy on second.

 

Counsell was either oblivious to the pitcher being 2 guys away OR he was to divulged in his gamble to have Grandal/Pitcher be the first two guys up the next inning...which is just terrible logic with the winning run on second. Can’t do that and definitely not in the postseason.

[tmwiese55]

Good point, basically shouldn't throw a breaking ball vs the P.

 

I agree with your second guess, I think he was gambling so that it helped make the next inning easier. Maybe they wanted more of a "throw junk and if he swings great" approach rather than being so close to the zone though, who knows.

[dlk9s]

I was cool with pitching to Bellinger. You just need one out. I was surprised, though, that he wasn't pitched more carefully.

[MrTPlush]

From dreams of a 3-1 lead to 2-3 deficit in 24 hours. Much like in 2011 they look dead at this point. Won’t be tuning in on my TV, hope they can pull out a win.

[adambr2]

I was cool with pitching to Bellinger. You just need one out. I was surprised, though, that he wasn't pitched more carefully.

 

I'm not following this logic at all. Yes, you just need one out. So wouldn't you want to face a pitcher who gives you far and away the best chance at getting that one out?

[Fear The Chorizo]

I was cool with pitching to Bellinger. You just need one out. I was surprised, though, that he wasn't pitched more carefully.

 

I'm not following this logic at all. Yes, you just need one out. So wouldn't you want to face a pitcher who gives you far and away the best chance at getting that one out?

 

The only marginal defense of it is that walking 2 to get to the pitcher in that spot guarantees the middle of their order comes up the next inning, and CC wanted to try and leave as many "easier" outs in the current Dodger batting order for the bottom of the 14th. To win that game they were going to need to get at least 4 more outs without giving up a run. I'm not saying it's the right move, but that had to factor in the equation.

 

What ticks me off is the fact Guerra was in that spot against Bellinger, in large part because the Brewers' situational lefty who was still available can't be counted on to get a lefty out (Cedeno).

 

Last two games have been disappointing, obviously...but I'm hoping this ride doesn't end in a couple days - really want to see the offense wake up with some home cooking and get things to a game 7 winner take all scenario!

[adambr2]

I was cool with pitching to Bellinger. You just need one out. I was surprised, though, that he wasn't pitched more carefully.

 

I'm not following this logic at all. Yes, you just need one out. So wouldn't you want to face a pitcher who gives you far and away the best chance at getting that one out?

 

The only marginal defense of it is that walking 2 to get to the pitcher in that spot guarantees the middle of their order comes up the next inning, and CC wanted to try and leave as many "easier" outs in the current Dodger batting order for the bottom of the 14th. To win that game they were going to need to get at least 4 more outs without giving up a run. I'm not saying it's the right move, but that had to factor in the equation.

 

What ticks me off is the fact Guerra was in that spot against Bellinger, in large part because the Brewers' situational lefty who was still available can't be counted on to get a lefty out (Cedeno).

 

Last two games have been disappointing, obviously...but I'm hoping this ride doesn't end in a couple days - really want to see the offense wake up with some home cooking and get things to a game 7 winner take all scenario!

 

I buy your logic, but I disagree with it a lot. Get to that next inning is all that mattered. The Dodgers were out of pitchers and going to be forced to use a future starter.

 

Cody Bellinger is way too talented of a bat to take a chance with when the winning run is in scoring position and 2 out when you literally have the option of making the pitcher bat in the same situation.

 

I think what Counsell also feared is using more pitchers and not having them for today. I love CC, wouldn't want any other manager. But he was locked in a game of extra inning chicken with Roberts to see who was going to blink first and worry about something other than the moment at hand, right now. And he lost.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Yeah, in no way did I think it was the right move (I posted right after Machado took 2nd on that ball in the dirt questioning why Bellinger wasn't just walked to at least get to Grandal in that spot) - just trying to come up with something that makes sense as to why they kept pitching to Bellinger.

 

During the whole AB, all I kept thinking was - "this dude actually changed his approach against Hader to almost beat you in the 9th and made a ridiculous catch to prevent runs from likely scoring in the 13th - take away the chance for him to be the hero, because he sure as heck seems like he's destined for it in this game"

[coolhandluke121]

Yelich hasn't been hitting well but he's not a mess either. His K% is below his regular season level despite facing good pitching most of the series, including some very good LHP's. He's been on base 7 times (tied with Cain for the team lead) and taken 90 pitches if I added them up right. He's not making great contact but if he had half the luck of the Dodgers hitters, he'd be hitting .300 with a lot of walks on top of that. If everyone on the Brewers had the same plate approach as he did, they'd be scoring 4-5 runs per game. He is not the problem.

 

I said before the series started I would have Granderson ahead of Braun if it came to that. Of course they were going to keep both, but Granderson needs to see more at-bats. No amount of mocking that stance can make it appear unreasonable unless you're a Braun fan. Braun has been swinging away at the first pitch at the worst possible time on a regular basis and has taken 58 pitches this series by my count. That's less than 3 per plate appearance. Granderson is a more disciplined hitter whose approach translates better to postseason baseball, and even his regular season production has been every bit as good as Braun's for 2 years now. He's taken 17 pitches in just 3 appearances, made good contact on a regular basis, and nearly came up with one of the greatest clutch HR's in Brewers history in his first at-bat. He also has a lot more experience in RF than Braun, allowing Yelich to stay in LF.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yelich hasn't been hitting well but he's not a mess either. His K% is below his regular season level despite facing good pitching most of the series, including some very good LHP's. He's been on base 7 times (tied with Cain for the team lead) and taken 90 pitches if I added them up right. He's not making great contact but if he had half the luck of the Dodgers hitters, he'd be hitting .300 with a lot of walks on top of that. If everyone on the Brewers had the same plate approach as he did, they'd be scoring 4-5 runs per game. He is not the problem.

 

I said before the series started I would have Granderson ahead of Braun if it came to that. Of course they were going to keep both, but Granderson needs to see more at-bats. No amount of mocking that stance can make it appear unreasonable unless you're a Braun fan. Braun has been swinging away at the first pitch at the worst possible time on a regular basis and has taken 58 pitches this series by my count. That's less than 3 per plate appearance. Granderson is a more disciplined hitter whose approach translates better to postseason baseball, and even his regular season production has been every bit as good as Braun's for 2 years now. He's taken 17 pitches in just 3 appearances, made good contact on a regular basis, and nearly came up with one of the greatest clutch HR's in Brewers history in his first at-bat. He also has a lot more experience in RF than Braun, allowing Yelich to stay in LF.

 

I love what Granderson brings to this team, but the guy just cannot hit lefties at this point in his career. So really, the only time you are going to theoretically start him is against Bueller. This Brewers team is just not set up to face tough lefties, especially those with big sweeping breaking stuff, which is exactly what Kershaw, Ryu and Hill bring to the table. If the Brewers make it to Game 7, and Bueller is tabbed to start, I'd love to see Granderson get a start in RF. Then you can swap him out if they go to one of their lefty relievers.

 

There just aren't that many solid lefty starters in MLB, yet the Dodgers have three of them. That's along with three lefties in the pen. They are set up for this Brewers team almost perfectly. The Brewers need to do something this offseason to rectify the line-up's weakness against lefty starters.

[KeithStone53151]

I'll agree on Granderson in general. I'd like to get him a start, but not against a lefty starter. Maybe in game 7 against Buehler, and Braun can come in when they put in kershaw.

[adambr2]

Yelich hasn't been hitting well but he's not a mess either. His K% is below his regular season level despite facing good pitching most of the series, including some very good LHP's. He's been on base 7 times (tied with Cain for the team lead) and taken 90 pitches if I added them up right. He's not making great contact but if he had half the luck of the Dodgers hitters, he'd be hitting .300 with a lot of walks on top of that. If everyone on the Brewers had the same plate approach as he did, they'd be scoring 4-5 runs per game. He is not the problem.

 

I said before the series started I would have Granderson ahead of Braun if it came to that. Of course they were going to keep both, but Granderson needs to see more at-bats. No amount of mocking that stance can make it appear unreasonable unless you're a Braun fan. Braun has been swinging away at the first pitch at the worst possible time on a regular basis and has taken 58 pitches this series by my count. That's less than 3 per plate appearance. Granderson is a more disciplined hitter whose approach translates better to postseason baseball, and even his regular season production has been every bit as good as Braun's for 2 years now. He's taken 17 pitches in just 3 appearances, made good contact on a regular basis, and nearly came up with one of the greatest clutch HR's in Brewers history in his first at-bat. He also has a lot more experience in RF than Braun, allowing Yelich to stay in LF.

 

Yeah Braun is not doing enough either. Had a nice 3 for 6 the other night but still only 5 for 21 in the series and hitting for almost no pop.

 

The problem is first that L.A. has too many lefties which don't match up well for Granderson. Secondly that guys like him and Santana can only play the OF. They deserve to play, but Braun isn't getting benched right now.

 

It's a terrible time for Yelich to slump but we could get away with it if Braun and Aguilar were picking them up. They are not.

[shanedog19]

I would give Santana the start in RF and have Braun at 1B on Friday. Aguilar looks lost at the plate and needs a breather.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Braun has been fine, he may be 5/21 but he is a a couple millimeters away 8/21 or something. He has been knocking the hell out of the ball, but right at people, and frankly is the only guy I trust for the most part to put together a good at bat in any situation.

 

Moose, Yelich, Cain, Aguillar, have all mostly disappeared. With how bad that group has been it is amazing this is even coming back to MKE.

[FVBrewerFan]

Cain had two hits yesterday including ringing double to straight away CF. Every AB is against a really, really good pitcher and we're just not going to see these guys get hits in bunches. Obviously they need to string a few hits together here and there though.

 

Brewers are outhitting the Dodgers, this is just what you get in a playoff series with two pitching staffs on top of their game. Nothing more than a gut feeling, but I think Yelich comes through in these games.

 

*Back to the two times CC didn't IBB walk guys to get to the pitcher. Did anyone in the media ask him about this?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

*Back to the two times CC didn't IBB walk guys to get to the pitcher. Did anyone in the media ask him about this?

 

Yes, and to paraphrase, Counsell said the plan was to not give Bellinger anything to hit. Then they would have walked Grandal to get to the pitcher. But Junior caught too much of the plate, and Bellinger smoked it. In hindsight, that's the whole point of an intentional walk.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I would give Santana the start in RF and have Braun at 1B on Friday. Aguilar looks lost at the plate and needs a breather.

 

If the Dodgers are indeed starting Ryu on Friday, I would hesitate to get too righthanded as he actually profiles as a reverse-split type of pitcher the past few seasons. Despite how much Moose is struggling at the plate and Shaw's typical struggles against lefties, I'd want both him and Shaw in the lineup. I think Shaw could use a game's worth of ABs instead of being a later inning replacement to be productive, regardless of whether the pitching he faces is righty or lefty. I also think Santana needs to find a way into the starting lineup, too - so Jesus can sit and take that RH power pinch hitting role with Braun sliding over to 1st. Then shake the lineup up a bit more by inserting Santana in the cleanup spot and moving Aguilar down to the 5 hole. With how Arcia is hitting, I actually move him up a notch in the order and then have Moose slide down to 8th.

 

Cain CF

Yelich LF

Braun 1B

Santana RF

Shaw 2B

Kratz/Pina C

Arcia SS

Moose 3B

Miley

 

I don't want to see Perez or Schoop in the starting lineup just because Ryu is a lefty starter - Brewers need to find the best lineup that combines the horses that got them to this point and gets the bats who are hot in the best places possible.

[Fear The Chorizo]

*Back to the two times CC didn't IBB walk guys to get to the pitcher. Did anyone in the media ask him about this?

 

Yes, and to paraphrase, Counsell said the plan was to not give Bellinger anything to hit. Then they would have walked Grandal to get to the pitcher. But Junior caught too much of the plate, and Bellinger smoked it. In hindsight, that's the whole point of an intentional walk.

 

That just sounds like an answer that's trying to avoid blame for the decision - makes zero sense with a tiring Guerra to entrust him throwing pitches outside the zone to try and make Bellinger chase, particularly when the decision came at a 1-0 count after Machado got into 2nd on that first pitch in the dirt. IIRC, Guerra threw Bellinger several very hittable pitches during that AB, so I don't believe CC's answer for a second.

 

I think the decision to pitch to Bellinger had more to do with how they wanted to approach pitching the 14th, knowing that walking the bases loaded to get to the pitcher's spot in the lineup would mean the Dodgers would get the top of their order back through for the next 3 outs - which they have to get regardless to win or continue the game. Getting Bellinger out in that spot would've meant their 14th inning batting order would be Grandal, pitcher's spot, Peterson - all lefthanded bats that I'm guessing Cedeno would've been sent out to try and get out. Plus, Guerra's spot in the order was due up 4th in the 14th - Brewers were out of position players on the bench, so Guerra (former catcher) wouldn't have been the worst option to hit again before being pulled for Cedeno had they started a rally. It wasn't the right decision because they didn't get Bellinger out, but there's no way the reasoning was to try and pitch around Bellinger to ultimately face the pitcher's spot in the 13th.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

*Back to the two times CC didn't IBB walk guys to get to the pitcher. Did anyone in the media ask him about this?

 

Yes, and to paraphrase, Counsell said the plan was to not give Bellinger anything to hit. Then they would have walked Grandal to get to the pitcher. But Junior caught too much of the plate, and Bellinger smoked it. In hindsight, that's the whole point of an intentional walk.

 

That just sounds like an answer that's trying to avoid blame for the decision - makes zero sense with a tiring Guerra to entrust him throwing pitches outside the zone to try and make Bellinger chase, particularly when the decision came at a 1-0 count after Machado got into 2nd on that first pitch in the dirt. IIRC, Guerra threw Bellinger several very hittable pitches during that AB, so I don't believe CC's answer for a second.

 

I agree completely. I think Counsell got caught thinking too far ahead, and it cost him. Now I think the chances of the team's offense doing anything at that point were slim, but it would have been better to at least give them the chance than take the bat out of their hands.

 

You are right, though, that Guerra was cashed by that time. He just as easily could have spiked one against Urias, and Machado scores easily from 3rd.

[Hambrewer]

Is it possible that Counsell is pulling some extreme trickery on the Dodgers tonight?

 

I think most people would agree that Wade Miley is a much stronger starting pitcher than Gio Gonzalez. And Miley is on regular rest after pitching Sunday. So why pitch Gio tonight over Miley?

 

Half of the Dodgers lineup is a platoon. So what would the Dodgers do if the Brewers replaced Gio with Woodruff after the first batter? Their options would be to either (1) use the wrong side of their platoon against Woodruff and then assumedly Burnes or (2) burn four of their five bench players to readjust their platoon. That would leave only Austin Barnes on their bench (and teams are reluctant to burn their last backup catcher). It would also leave them with no moves if we used Xavier Cedeno against their LH batters later in the game (maybe that's a reason he's on the roster).

 

Anyway, it would be interesting if they did it. I tried to run it by my wife but she doesn't understand and also couldn't care less so I had to tell somebody my crazy theory.

 

 

I guess I predicted the strategy correctly but the game incorrectly.

[coolhandluke121]

I wasn't suggesting they start Granderson instead of Braun against an LHP, but he should easily have more than 3 pa's. Their bullpen doesn't have many good LHP's. There's nothing wrong with benching Braun later in a game, like they often do with Aguilar. I guess they want to keep an LHB on the bench, rather than start all of them against RHP's, but I think it would be better to get Granderson 3 pa's against Buehler at the expense of not having an LHB to hit against one of their relievers once.

 

I doubt we see Braun at 1B again. Didn't seem to work out the way anybody wanted it to, because of his back pain if nothing else.

[pacopete4]

Benching Braun again? He's the only player to show up to both series. Some of this is just too comical.

[RollieTime]

 

If the Dodgers are indeed starting Ryu on Friday, I would hesitate to get too righthanded as he actually profiles as a reverse-split type of pitcher the past few seasons. Despite how much Moose is struggling at the plate and Shaw's typical struggles against lefties, I'd want both him and Shaw in the lineup. I think Shaw could use a game's worth of ABs instead of being a later inning replacement to be productive, regardless of whether the pitching he faces is righty or lefty. I also think Santana needs to find a way into the starting lineup, too - so Jesus can sit and take that RH power pinch hitting role with Braun sliding over to 1st. Then shake the lineup up a bit more by inserting Santana in the cleanup spot and moving Aguilar down to the 5 hole. With how Arcia is hitting, I actually move him up a notch in the order and then have Moose slide down to 8th.

 

Cain CF

Yelich LF

Braun 1B

Santana RF

Shaw 2B

Kratz/Pina C

Arcia SS

Moose 3B

Miley

 

I don't want to see Perez or Schoop in the starting lineup just because Ryu is a lefty starter - Brewers need to find the best lineup that combines the horses that got them to this point and gets the bats who are hot in the best places possible.

 

I feel that Santana should get the start in right and move Braun to first as well. They need a spark in the lineup and Jesús has been a black hole with runners on in the postseason. Santana is playing well and deserves to make an impact in this series before it’s too late. Braun has been playing well and won’t be benched. He’s been unlucky this postseason and could have another 3-4 hits to his name.