Dodgers v Brewers

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

I'm not saying we straight bench Jeffress, but giving him an extra day and using him in more platoon friendly situations is probably a good idea over the next few days. Also ideally in lower leverage situations.

 

Exactly. I don't want to be grouped in with anyone suggesting they bench him or that he's all of a sudden not a good reliever. I didn't call for JJ to come out of the game after the walk to Barnes, for example. Not even in hindsight. He had the right to finish that inning and he's a great ground-ball pitcher. But when a reliever sits for half an inning and you bring him back in against the top of the order after he labored like that, you're asking for trouble. He may have worked multiple innings on many occasions this year, but not against the best hitters from the best offense in the NL when he's been struggling a lot in the playoffs already. I am very confident that the statistics on relievers in their 2nd inning of work are similar to stats on starters working their 3rd time through the order.

 

I think the plan was for Burnes to have the full 7th, and for Jeffress to pitch the 8th. I doubt that the initial plan ever called for Jeffress to pitch multiple innings. The surprisingly bad outing by Burnes threw a monkey wrench in the plan, though, and there apparently wasn't a solid Plan B in place.

[MrTPlush]

I think the plan was for Burnes to have the full 7th, and for Jeffress to pitch the 8th. I doubt that the initial plan ever called for Jeffress to pitch multiple innings. The surprisingly bad outing by Burnes threw a monkey wrench in the plan, though, and there apparently wasn't a solid Plan B in place.

 

Yup, that is what happens when you call for your bullpen to pitch 4+ innings consistently every day. Fortunately it worked most of the time the last month and a half.

 

We are in serious trouble the next 3 days if our bullpen can't figure it out and/or if Counsell won't give the Guerra's and Peralta's of the world a chance. All these off days and playing max 2 days in a row has been nice. We won't get that luxury right now.

[Outlander]

I do wish that they showed some confidence in Peralta against some of these tough right handed hitters. Yes, he is a rookie but so is Burnes and he has been put in some high leverage spots.

[RollieTime]

I do wish that they showed some confidence in Peralta against some of these tough right handed hitters. Yes, he is a rookie but so is Burnes and he has been put in some high leverage spots.

 

The difference between Burnes and Peralta is that Burnes consistently throws strikes while Peralta’s achilles heel his entire career is his command. I can see why they don’t want to put a guy out there that frequently struggles in his first inning on the mound before settling in. You’re playing a dangerous game in the NLCS using him in a tight situation.

[tmwiese55]

Agree on Peralta, I think he's more there for odd situation of needing to eat multiple innings due to extra innings or maybe if they're significantly down in the game so you don't want to burn guys up. Of course could be wrong and maybe they'll use him for a key RH heavy stretch at some point. But Walks can kill and that's risky business in a tight game or with runners on already.

[Fear The Chorizo]

 

It's great having a deep bullpen, but I think the rush to get into it at times burns a team, particularly when your starter has just retired 16 straight and had a 2 run lead.

 

I think the schedule was a huge factor. They want him to be able to go 2 times through the order on 3 days rest on Wednesday. ~75 pitches was probably a number they had in their head, and a reasonable one at that. Third time through the order, seeing a perennial MVP caliber RHB, is a big factor too. And look at Ryu; he was just as unhittable as Miley, if not better, until all of a sudden he wasn't.

 

There's just too many good, evidence-based reasons to pull him. You can't deviate from good strategies on hunches all the time. He had to get Taylor out if he wanted to go 6. It was a fair chance but it wasn't meant to be.

 

I get your point, but I don't like basing taking him out off a presumed plan for 3 games later when Miley was the biggest reason the Brewers had a great chance to take a 2-0 series lead. The third time through the order reasoning is definitely a factor, however that can't be the only thing put into the vacuum used to make a pitching change decision. With how he was pitching, Miley should have been given the chance to get Turner out and start the 7th. All the comparisons the Brewers' pen utilization has to the 2015 Royals - the Royals pen was much better, IMO, and they still got 2 Volquez starts of 6IP and a complete game out of Cueto in 3 of their 5 WS games. Ventura and Young were on the short leashes (~4-5IP), and they had to pull Cueto early from an ALCS start that he got rocked...but they still had 2 starters they relied on to log much heavier innings than what the Brewers have.

 

Part of what made this strategy so effective during the regular season was the bullpen shuttle and having a ton of good relievers after September callups to get outs - i.e. using the full 40 man to the team's advantage. Seeing the same quality team/same hitters during a playoff series with reduced relief options makes getting all 27 outs much tougher, particularly when many of those late inning relievers had pitched less than 24 hours earlier in Game 1. Simply restricting the roster to 25 guys has limited how the Brewers can approach their pitching staff, and it should mean giving their best starters at least some leash. Every call to the bullpen is a hunch just as much as pulling the trigger on a starter before it's obvious he's done. The "hunch" for saturday's game was that Burnes was going to get the team into the 8th inning. And I'd argue the schedule was a huge factor to let Miley stay in the game, as I think it's a bad move to try and give him the Game 5 start in LA on short rest. Miley and Chacin should be set up for games 6 and 7 starts on regular/more than regular rest. Pushing those two to go on short rest and handcuff their pitch counts to do so won't win the series - if that line of thought factored in to pull Miley in game 2, IMO it contributed more to the loss than alot of us think and it's going to lead to even more tail chasing on the mound as the series progresses.

[tmwiese55]

This is the plan that got them here and what everyone was praising as genius and the next step in baseball a mere 4-5 days ago. They're not going to go away from it because it didn't work last game.

[FVBrewerFan]

I do wish that they showed some confidence in Peralta against some of these tough right handed hitters. Yes, he is a rookie but so is Burnes and he has been put in some high leverage spots.

 

I'm a huge Peralta guy, but I have no problem not using him in high leverage situations. There will be an extra innings game, a game that is 5-0 in the 2nd inning, something like that. That's Peralta time.

 

I see no need to change anything at all in how they're using the pitching staff. The difference now is Dodgers lineup is ridiculous, and there is some familiarity with the pitchers. That's why it's a good idea to throw Hader out there for 2-3 innings instead of one inning every day. Facing the same batters every day gives them the chance to get comfortable. I think that's what's happening to Jeffress a bit. They can use him just as they have been, but he needs to make some adjustments.

[Fear The Chorizo]

This is the plan that got them here and what everyone was praising as genius and the next step in baseball a mere 4-5 days ago. They're not going to go away from it because it didn't work last game.

 

Not everyone - and all I'm saying is that if you want your best pitchers to get the most outs during a series to lock down "today's game", as evidenced by Hader getting 3 IP of work in Game 1, then pulling Miley or Chacin fast isn't sticking to that plan.

 

The other side of this is the Dodgers have been in their pen more or at least just as much as the Brewers over two games, right? At some point that's gotta lead to the Brewers scoring more runs off what is perceived to be the weak link in their roster, too.

[Outlander]

Agree on Peralta, I think he's more there for odd situation of needing to eat multiple innings due to extra innings or maybe if they're significantly down in the game so you don't want to burn guys up. Of course could be wrong and maybe they'll use him for a key RH heavy stretch at some point. But Walks can kill and that's risky business in a tight game or with runners on already.

Very small sample but right handers Dozier/Machado/Puig and Taylor are 0/6 with 4 strikeouts and 4 walks against him. So looking at that the walks are a real risk but really shouldn't have him on the roster if they don't trust him. He has been dominant against right handed hitters all year.

[tmwiese55]

Agree on Peralta, I think he's more there for odd situation of needing to eat multiple innings due to extra innings or maybe if they're significantly down in the game so you don't want to burn guys up. Of course could be wrong and maybe they'll use him for a key RH heavy stretch at some point. But Walks can kill and that's risky business in a tight game or with runners on already.

Very small sample but right handers Dozier/Machado/Puig and Taylor are 0/6 with 4 strikeouts and 4 walks against him. So looking at that the walks are a real risk but really shouldn't have him on the roster if they don't trust him. He has been dominant against right handed hitters all year.

 

Have to find a stretch with 3-4 RH in a row though and that's tough vs the Dodgers. The right situation could arise though and hopefully he comes through.

 

Pulling Chacin/Miley for the 3rd time through lineup is exactly sticking to the plan.

[KeithStone53151]

Agree on Peralta, I think he's more there for odd situation of needing to eat multiple innings due to extra innings or maybe if they're significantly down in the game so you don't want to burn guys up. Of course could be wrong and maybe they'll use him for a key RH heavy stretch at some point. But Walks can kill and that's risky business in a tight game or with runners on already.

Very small sample but right handers Dozier/Machado/Puig and Taylor are 0/6 with 4 strikeouts and 4 walks against him. So looking at that the walks are a real risk but really shouldn't have him on the roster if they don't trust him. He has been dominant against right handed hitters all year.

 

Yeah I tend to agree that there's a plan to use Peralta, I'd be surprised if he doesn't pitch during this 3 game stretch. There's a decent chance they have him piggyback behind GG tomorrow with Woodruff pitching behind Chacin today. Going that route would pit him against a RH heavy lineup, unless they wanted to make changes in the 3rd or 4th inning and leave their bench empty in the 7th like they've done both games so far.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Peralta had a start in LA earlier this year where he gave up 1 run over 4 IP - but racked up a huge pitch count due to walks/deep counts and seemingly was always in a jam. He's on the roster because I'm assuming he'll either get a start or be 1st out of the pen in games 4 or 5 if they want to run Gio out there again...with the Dodgers' lineup, I think they have to give Gio a start in LA.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Pulling Chacin/Miley for the 3rd time through lineup is exactly sticking to the plan.

 

Game situation and condition of your best relievers have to also factor in whether that's the right move in the postseason, though. Pen had to pitch 7 innings the night before an afternoon game and Miley's given up 2 singles to that point in the 6th with a pitch count in the mid 70s. We'll agree to disagree on this issue, I guess - I think you've got to give him the opportunity to work past a 2 out single in that spot Saturday, at least until the lead run comes to the plate.

[tmwiese55]

Good ideas there, he could be used with GG in a game if the put in mostly RH hitters. Woodruff got that role last time but maybe he or Burnes will need to be saved later so they use Peralta for one or two innings. Maybe the put in the lefties then but it burns their bench.

[tmwiese55]

Pulling Chacin/Miley for the 3rd time through lineup is exactly sticking to the plan.

 

Game situation and condition of your best relievers have to also factor in whether that's the right move in the postseason, though. Pen had to pitch 7 innings the night before an afternoon game and Miley's given up 2 singles to that point in the 6th with a pitch count in the mid 70s. We'll agree to disagree on this issue, I guess - I think you've got to give him the opportunity to work past a 2 out single in that spot Saturday, at least until the lead runner comes to the plate.

 

Well you're disagreeing with their plan then, which is fine. That's what the board is about, discussion.

 

I'm just saying that's been their plan all year and I don't see them deviating. This specific case they already let game situation and Miley being in a groove go longer than intended so there is some flex and they did try to get that extra inning there and it almost got them there. But having a lefty avoid facing two righties who are the 345 of the order for the 3rd time with a runner on is exactly the situation their analytics is trying to avoid.

 

Long story short, if Turner ding dongs Miley there there is a larger chunk of the board going 'why did we leave him in there, we've been yanking all year in that situation why change now in the playoffs.' And reminder, Burnes did get that out. It's baseball, the Dodgers are very good. You're not going to throw shutouts every game. The P strategy still only gave up 4 runs, which isn't bad at all.

[MrTPlush]

I expect the Brewers to gun pretty hard for the win today since they depend on their bullpen so much. You could use guys a ton today and then turn around and use them Wednesday. However, it is unlikely and not advisable they do so if they pitch them Wednesday like that. That way we can maximize using those guys over two games instead of one. So if we find ourselves in a tie game come the 5th inning I wouldn't be too shocked if Hader trots out if the match ups make sense.

[FVBrewerFan]

Peralta had a start in LA earlier this year where he gave up 1 run over 4 IP - but racked up a huge pitch count due to walks/deep counts and seemingly was always in a jam. He's on the roster because I'm assuming he'll either get a start or be 1st out of the pen in games 4 or 5 if they want to run Gio out there again...with the Dodgers' lineup, I think they have to give Gio a start in LA.

 

Maybe, but I think he's on the roster in case they need an innings eater in a blow-out or extra innings game. That said, I could see them using him for an inning in one of next couple games just to keep him sharp. Just depends on game situation.

[adambr2]

I expect the Brewers to gun pretty hard for the win today since they depend on their bullpen so much. You could use guys a ton today and then turn around and use them Wednesday. However, it is unlikely and not advisable they do so if they pitch them Wednesday like that. That way we can maximize using those guys over two games instead of one. So if we find ourselves in a tie game come the 5th inning I wouldn't be too shocked if Hader trots out if the match ups make sense.

 

Winning today comes first yes but if that starts to look unlikely tomorrow becomes the priority. Somehow, have to win one of the next 2. Cannot go down 3-1. If you can just go into Wednesday at 2-2 you're in a decent spot. So if L.A. gets up 3-4 runs early on, you'd probably need to ask Chacin to eat what he can and get at least 3 from Peralta.

[KeithStone53151]

I expect the Brewers to gun pretty hard for the win today since they depend on their bullpen so much. You could use guys a ton today and then turn around and use them Wednesday. However, it is unlikely and not advisable they do so if they pitch them Wednesday like that. That way we can maximize using those guys over two games instead of one. So if we find ourselves in a tie game come the 5th inning I wouldn't be too shocked if Hader trots out if the match ups make sense.

 

Winning today comes first yes but if that starts to look unlikely tomorrow becomes the priority. Somehow, have to win one of the next 2. Cannot go down 3-1. If you can just go into Wednesday at 2-2 you're in a decent spot. So if L.A. gets up 3-4 runs early on, you'd probably need to ask Chacin to eat what he can and get at least 3 from Peralta.

 

That generally seems fair from both of you guys. Getting a lead today specifically(versus tomorrow) would be ideal as you can go to Hader for 2 and have him available on Wednesday. The goal is obviously to find a way to win 2 of 3 in LA and get home just needing 1, but banking 1 of the first 2 is huge to avoid an elimination game in LA and ensure we get the series back to Milwaukee. Anyone who thinks we have more than a 5% chance to win 3 straight in LA is dreaming...even 5% might be optimistic.

 

I see us generally going with better relievers at least through the 7th if we are winning, tied, or even down just 1 or 2 runs. Just try not to have a guy throw more than 18-20 pitches. If we are still down after 7, probably time to let Peralta or Guerra pitch bottom 7 and bottom 8. To further explain, say Chacin goes 3+ and it's 3-1 Dodgers...probably use some combo or Guerra/Cedeno/Soria/Burnes to get through the bottom of the 6th. If it stays 2 runs through top 7 then you go to the long guy in peralta...but if we can tie them or take the lead at any point during that you can go to knebel and hader

[Eye Black]

ZiPS updated playoff probabilities for the NLCS look to be in line with about what I would have guessed.

 

 

[pre]Game Home Team Milwaukee Starter Brewers Win Los Angeles Starter Dodgers Win

1 Brewers Gio Gonzalez 100.0% Clayton Kershaw 0.0%

2 Brewers Wade Miley 0.0% Hyun-Jin Ryu 100.0%

3 Dodgers Jhoulys Chacin 38.6% Walker Buehler 61.4%

4 Dodgers Bullpen? 55.3% Rich Hill 44.7%

5 Dodgers Gio Gonzalez? 39.8% Clayton Kershaw? 60.2%

6 Brewers Wade Miley? 49.1% Hyun-Jin Ryu? 50.9%

7 Brewers Jhoulys Chacin? 44.8% Walker Buehler? 55.2%[/pre]

 

Assuming Games 3, 4, 5 actually break the way they are supposed to (obviously unlikely) and then the Brewers win the coin flip in Game 6, we would be in for a heck of Game 7 at Miller Park.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'd give Peralta heavy work in Game 5 after we go up 3-1.

[coolhandluke121]

ZiPS updated playoff probabilities for the NLCS look to be in line with about what I would have guessed.

 

 

[pre]Game Home Team Milwaukee Starter Brewers Win Los Angeles Starter Dodgers Win

1 Brewers Gio Gonzalez 100.0% Clayton Kershaw 0.0%

2 Brewers Wade Miley 0.0% Hyun-Jin Ryu 100.0%

3 Dodgers Jhoulys Chacin 38.6% Walker Buehler 61.4%

4 Dodgers Bullpen? 55.3% Rich Hill 44.7%

5 Dodgers Gio Gonzalez? 39.8% Clayton Kershaw? 60.2%

6 Brewers Wade Miley? 49.1% Hyun-Jin Ryu? 50.9%

7 Brewers Jhoulys Chacin? 44.8% Walker Buehler? 55.2%[/pre]

 

Assuming Games 3, 4, 5 actually break the way they are supposed to (obviously unlikely) and then the Brewers win the coin flip in Game 6, we would be in for a heck of Game 7 at Miller Park.

 

I don't think that's the plan. I think Gio or Woodruff will get the "bullpen" start on 3 days rest Tuesday, with the other one coming in early to get favorable match-ups before the Dodgers start bringing in PH's. After throwing ~75 pitches Saturday, I think Miley will get the game 5 start on 3 days rest. I think Guerra, Peralta, and Burnes could all get turns in long relief to follow up the LHP starters and get favorable match-ups. I just don't see them saving Miley, who's such a good match-up for the Dodgers, until game 6. He doesn't need 5 days rest, and they might be fighting just to get to game 6.

[MrTPlush]

What happens on a return trip home greatly depends if we are going home up 3-2 or down 2-3. If we are down the last two games will be a MASSIVE mess of throwing whatever out there sticks. Game 6 would be a throw all your chips in at all costs and then the next day would be exactly the same dang thing.

 

If we lead 3-2 you might see a more conservative approach...but even then when you got a chance to clinch...well.

[KeithStone53151]

What happens on a return trip home greatly depends if we are going home up 3-2 or down 2-3. If we are down the last two games will be a MASSIVE mess of throwing whatever out there sticks. Game 6 would be a throw all your chips in at all costs and then the next day would be exactly the same dang thing.

 

If we lead 3-2 you might see a more conservative approach...but even then when you got a chance to clinch...well.

 

Yeah for sure. Whether we are up 3-2 or down 3-2 in game 6...if we get a lead I guarantee we are pitching the primo relievers. Hader for sure would go 1+ and probably 2+. The difference comes if we are losing game 6. If we are up 3-2, we might save hader completely. Down 3-2, might as well use him for 1+ and do your very best to limit the scoring and maximize your chance of coming back.

 

I'm not as concerned about Chacin as many seem to be. He'll be mismatched against a couple hitters, will probably have to pitch around bellinger and maybe muncy...or at the very least pitch down in the zone and away with offspeed and stay away from their HR pull power. Take advantage of the pitchers spot in the lineup. Generally speaking, he has a good chance to keep us in the game if he can keep the ball in the park.