Dodgers v Brewers

[torts]

I am pumped for this series

[sdcheezhd]

The weeknight games are tough for coming up from San Diego. Maybe Monday. 538 has the odds at 60/40 Dodgers. They are the toughest draw but I'm glad they're in. I think Kershaw is only .500 or so against the Brewers in his career. Braun and Yelich have both hit him well.

[jjfanec]

What are the weaknesses on the Dodgers? You look at that lineup and it seems like they just stacked. The starting rotation is great. Don't know a ton about the bullpen outside of closer. How on Earth did they almost miss the playoffs? Man I wish the cards and Rockies could have knocked them out in the regular season.

 

On paper the Dodgers are a lot better than the Rockies so this series will be a real test as it should be to go to the World Series.

[AZBrewCrew]

The media already has awarded the Dodgers the pennant. This is going to be a very difficult series,but will give the Brewers some legitimate playoff experience against perennial contenders.

 

 

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[nodakfan17]

I think I prefer being the underdog.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I think 60/40 is about right betting odds wise.

 

The Dodgers lineup is just scary good, and so is that pitching staff. That said, we played them tough throughout the regular season, and at times they've slumped and scuffled and played well below expectations.

 

I think the series comes down to bullpens. How many innings can ours throw? How many innings can we make theirs throw? The Braves really only got one big hit in 4 games; it just happened to be worth four runs (I know Freeman added a homer, and they got a clutch single from Suzuki today, but you get the idea). Today, they loaded the bases with one out and couldn't score up 2-1 in the 5th. We have to do better than that.

 

Honestly, the way this team is playing, I don't fear anyone. The Dodgers are the most talented team in the NL, but we've played better than them over 166 games. I think this goes 6 or 7 and the baseball gods decide it (I guess that means I'd take us as a value bet--even if LA is a logical favorite, I think the totality of factors makes it much closer to a coin flip). I hope it's our turn, but either way, I think we're in for quite a ride. Enjoy it!

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Game 1 is at 7pm.

 

I'm not scared of em. The Cubs had the most talented team. It's not always about that.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I've felt that the Brewers' roster structure lends itself better to 1- game and shorter series playoff rounds, where having the ability overwhelm an opponent with a pile of quality relievers to keep them off-balance long enough to advance to the next round. That being said, winning a 7 game series becomes tougher if you don't have that unicorn starter that can be leaned on to get deep into 2-3 games of a series and leave with a great chance at picking up a win. Even dominant relievers lose their advantage having to face the same hitters in key spots 3-5 times over the course of a series, and the Brewers are going to keep rolling with the heavy bullpen strategy because their stable of starting pitching can't be counted on to get through the Dodgers' lineup 3 times without giving up crooked numbers. I'd expect Kershaw to start game 1, and frankly I see the series hinging on how well he pitches. If the Dodgers essentially can pencil in at least 2 wins on games Kershaw starts regardless of what the Brewers do pitchingwise because he just shuts them down, then I don't see the Brewers getting to a game 7. However, if the Brewers find a way to win one of the two Kershaw starts between games 1-5, I think they have an excellent chance to win the series.

 

The Dodger lineup looks stacked because of the names 1-8 plus a couple key bench players. Funny thing is the Brewers lineup looks pretty damn good when you compare their production over the last 2 months + playoffs. With Arcia and the C position being better than pitchers offensively, and 2nd base production being provided by a converted 3B with pop and streaky Schoop, the Brewers have made it tough on pitchers. Really helps having the MVP in the 2-hole and a resurgent Braun towards the top, too.

 

This could be the series where both Gio and Miley get 2 starts because they are lefties...it's tough because the Dodgers are effective against both RHP and LHP, however they are especially dangerous against RH starters.

[nate82]

Game 1 is at 7pm.

 

I'm not scared of em. The Cubs had the most talented team. It's not always about that.

 

The Dodgers may not be as talented as the Cubs but they are more of a complete team than the Cubs are. The Dodgers bullpen I am not all that scared of other than Jansen.

[Eye Black]

On the one hand the Dodgers look really, really good. I believe they had the best hitting and best pitching in the National League over the second half of the season. They look close to a complete team to me, maybe the bullpen is the one spot they could be a little stronger.

 

On the other hand this is baseball, a sport in which the Dodgers lost a combined 10 games to the Reds (1-6) and Marlins (2-4) this season.

 

One thing that gives me a little extra hope is that the Brewers record against the rest of NL West this season was 23-6. The Brewers really dominated the teams the Dodgers played the most frequently this season.

 

The Brewers were 3-4 against the Dodgers, but with the exception of one really poor performance by Milwaukee they were mostly competitive games.

[Ennder]

The Nationals had the most talent in the NL, the Dodgers are probably 2nd and the Cubs were 3rd. Only 1 of those teams is left. Nationals and Dodgers are both really stacked and really deep, the Cubs had some serious holes.

[bjkrautk]

Wish the Braves had pushed the Dodgers to another game (to force Kershaw to pitch another game in the Division Series), but I guess the Crew will just have to do things the hard way.

 

 

Weekend can't get here soon enough.

[Underachiever]

I've felt that the Brewers' roster structure lends itself better to 1- game and shorter series playoff rounds

Brewers should just win it in four, then. Simple.

[bork]

I'm kind of glad the Dodgers/Braves series didn't go further. While it's nice to have a rested bullpen, I'd be a bit concerned about rust if the Brewers had a 4 day layoff and the Dodgers had a more normal 1-2 days off. But now they're both in the same boat.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Sounds a little revisionist to me. The Cubs had major holes but the Nationals were super deep? The Cubs were the #1 team in the NL until last Monday. They sort of flatlined at the end, had they won the division it is likely everyone is talking right now about how tired they are of their recent success. I still say the Cubs were the most talented NL team. They had some bad injuries to some key pieces.

 

But the point anyway, was that the Dodgers don't scare me. I don't see them as equals with the juggernauts in the AL.

[HarveysWBs]

What are the weaknesses on the Dodgers? You look at that lineup and it seems like they just stacked. The starting rotation is great. Don't know a ton about the bullpen outside of closer. How on Earth did they almost miss the playoffs? Man I wish the cards and Rockies could have knocked them out in the regular season.

 

On paper the Dodgers are a lot better than the Rockies so this series will be a real test as it should be to go to the World Series.

 

The Dodger starting rotation is solid, but somewhat inexperienced. Walker Buehler is good, but quite green, and although Ryu has been around for a while, he hasn't pitched as much in the postseason as you would expect for being on the Dodgers all these years (his small October sample size is quite good: 10.3 K/9 and minuscule 0.5 WHIP). Everyone knows the book on Kershaw: he's had his postseason struggles but looked better last year (game 7 of the World Series aside), and is becoming craftier as his dominance fades with age and high mileage.

 

The Dodgers bullpen is probably the Brewer’s best chance at making a dent. They have some nice pieces here and there, but for stretches this year they looked like a total minefield. Closer Jansen is nigh unhittable, but has a heart condition (which I bring up not to wish anyone poor health or injury, but to mention that while it seems his condition is manageable, it also appears to be unpredictable and if it flares up during the series, it could easily sideline him for several games). Unlike Milwaukee, their bullpen did not see much use in the Division Series, with starters tending to go long, as you would expect from their pedigree. Of the relievers who did see action, Pedro Baez looks nasty and figures to see a lot of high-leverage work if (or optimistically, when) the Dodger starters run into trouble.

 

They've taken a few starters and made them into interesting relievers:

-Kenta Maeda has had some success in the role, and certainly did fine work in last year's postseason

-The ageless Rich Hill may be used exclusively out of the bullpen, and that probably suits him well at this point in his career (HR problems, doesn't have to turn the lineup over, etc.)

-Alex Wood, while talented, has looked pretty hittable at times

 

The offense looks like a real juggernaut, and not pseudo-strong like the altitude-enhanced Rockies. Midseason acquisition Machado is on a tear, and his remaining hot would include some extra lemon juice in the wound after the Brewers couldn't land him at the deadline. They have thump up and down the lineup (sound familiar?) and they don't figure to be rattled by the pressure seeing as this is their third consecutive trip to the NLCS. Even old enemy David Freese already has 3 postseason rbi in just 2 at bats (figures--expect him to have at least one appearance this series that will test your ability to abide by forum standards for appropriate language).

 

Defensively, the outfield comes out average overall. Matt Kemp is a butcher sometimes, but Puig, Bellinger, and Pederson make up for him a bit. Puig, of course, is famous for his throwing arm and willingness to go all out to make the extraordinary play, so Brewer baserunners will need to be aware on balls hit in play towards right. Looking at their infield defense, nothing really stands out as a huge liability, and it even seems Machado has somewhat surprisingly acquitted himself well at short, where Baseball Reference credits him with five defensive runs saved above average. Bottom line is that modern defensive adjustments should play to players' strengths and opponents' tendencies, so the Dodgers, like most teams, only need to be average in the field to be more effective than ever before and it seems that they meet that bar this year. Dodger catchers seem clearly inferior defensively to Brewer backstops, however, so give the Brewers the edge there in both pitch framing and stopping the running game. On paper the Brewers appear better at the hot corner, but Shaw seems to be the one carrying the Crew's strong statistics there, and if he gets most of his appearances at second, which seems likely, that may be an area of concern. Shortstop and keystone defense leans Dodgers slightly (Arcia, for all his wizardry, is prone to some stomach-churning miscues), and 1B defense--there's a contradiction in terms--is a bit of a wash.

 

Overall, the Brewers' playoff journey is shaping up to be something like a video game, as each successive opponent looks to be tougher and have fewer weaknesses than the last. Frankly, in my estimation, the Brewers need to hope that iron sharpens iron, since whichever AL opponent awaits will either be historically powerful (Yankees), boast multiple MVP vote-getters (Red Sox), or will be the battle-tested defending champs themselves (Astros). What has come before, while a ride unlike any I've ever witnessed, has all been just a prelude. The real test starts Friday.

[SRB]

The Dodgers offense is sort of the inverse of the Rockies: the Rockies hit LHP very well, but the Dodgers are weak against LHP. I think Miley and Gio should start two of the first three games (along with Chacin), and that Cedeno and Jennings should both make the roster.

[CheezWizHed]

I'd pass on Jennings. Just because he is a LHP doesn't mean he is better than another RHP on the roster...

[Ennder]

Sounds a little revisionist to me. The Cubs had major holes but the Nationals were super deep? The Cubs were the #1 team in the NL until last Monday. They sort of flatlined at the end, had they won the division it is likely everyone is talking right now about how tired they are of their recent success. I still say the Cubs were the most talented NL team. They had some bad injuries to some key pieces.

 

But the point anyway, was that the Dodgers don't scare me. I don't see them as equals with the juggernauts in the AL.

 

The Nationals massively under-performed their talent, the Cubs did not. For the life of me I can't understand why the Nationals did not win 95+ given the roster they had.

[SRB]

Overall, the Brewers' playoff journey is shaping up to be something like a video game, as each successive opponent looks to be tougher and have fewer weaknesses than the last. Frankly, in my estimation, the Brewers need to hope that iron sharpens iron, since whichever AL opponent awaits will either be historically powerful (Yankees), boast multiple MVP vote-getters (Red Sox), or will be the battle-tested defending champs themselves (Astros). What has come before, while a ride unlike any I've ever witnessed, has all been just a prelude. The real test starts Friday.

 

We just dominated a team with multiple MVP vote-getters.

 

*Edit to add that the below is not necessarily responding to your post, HwB*

 

I don't like the narrative that the Rockies were a bad team. They weren't. Arrenado/Story are better than any two Dodgers hitters. They had just exploded 11 runs or something like that on the eve of the playoffs. We lucked out by missing Freeland, but even German Marquez has been on par with any of the Dodgers starters this season (in fact better by advanced stats).

 

There's a reason the Rockies and Dodgers were tied after 162 games, and it's not because the Dodgers are amazing and the Rockies terrible...

[HarveysWBs]

Sounds a little revisionist to me. The Cubs had major holes but the Nationals were super deep? The Cubs were the #1 team in the NL until last Monday. They sort of flatlined at the end, had they won the division it is likely everyone is talking right now about how tired they are of their recent success. I still say the Cubs were the most talented NL team. They had some bad injuries to some key pieces.

 

But the point anyway, was that the Dodgers don't scare me. I don't see them as equals with the juggernauts in the AL.

 

The Nationals massively under-performed their talent, the Cubs did not. For the life of me I can't understand why the Nationals did not win 95+ given the roster they had.

 

Dusty Baker knows, but he ain’t saying.

 

http://www.masnsports.com/nationals-pastime/Dusty-Baker-Bryce-Harper-laugh-sidebar.jpg

[IIAY]

Wondering what Erik Kratz can do for an encore? Well, he does have two scoreless appearances in relief vs. the Dodgers this year. Just when you think our bullpen can’t get any nastier...

[HarveysWBs]

Overall, the Brewers' playoff journey is shaping up to be something like a video game, as each successive opponent looks to be tougher and have fewer weaknesses than the last. Frankly, in my estimation, the Brewers need to hope that iron sharpens iron, since whichever AL opponent awaits will either be historically powerful (Yankees), boast multiple MVP vote-getters (Red Sox), or will be the battle-tested defending champs themselves (Astros). What has come before, while a ride unlike any I've ever witnessed, has all been just a prelude. The real test starts Friday.

 

We just dominated a team with multiple MVP vote-getters.

 

I don't like the narrative that the Rockies were a bad team. They weren't. Arrenado/Story are better than any two Dodgers hitters. They had just exploded 11 runs or something like that on the eve of the playoffs. We lucked out by missing Freeland, but even German Marquez has been on par with any of the Dodgers starters this season (in fact better by advanced stats).

 

There's a reason the Rockies and Dodgers were tied after 162 games, and it's not because the Dodgers are amazing and the Rockies terrible...

 

I like your optimism, and to be clear, I’m done underestimating this Brewers team. They’ve exceeded my loftiest expectations, and I thought they’d be quite good this year. To your points, I wouldn’t say the Rockies are terrible, and perhaps calling their offense “pseudo-strong” was a bit pointed, but their home/road splits are what they are, and always will be. Plus, I like Marquez, but he was not nearly as effective at home as he was on the road, as one would expect when comparing the Colorado environment to the cavernous rest of the NL West parks.

 

That being said, we played well in Colorado this year and definitely took it to them when it counted, but I just wonder to what extent this was a matter of the Rockies pressing (which I believe some of their hitters admitted, especially Story). I don’t expect the Dodgers to have the same problem. I’m not in the prediction-making business, which is utterly foolish in baseball, but I suspect the Brewers will at least drop a game or two this series. This one should be tough.

[Ennder]

Pretty sure the Dodgers will score in at least 2 innings this series.

[dlk9s]

The Dodgers are the one NL team I didn't want to see in the playoffs. Just stacked, hitting and starting pitching. I think that their "A" game is better than our "A" game, but both teams can't have their "A" game at the same time. Let's see if the Brewers - our pitchers, in particular - can make them play their "B" or "C" game four or five times.