Trade Targets Starting Pitching 2018-19

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Joel Sherman floats the Sonny Gray idea in the New York Post in an article looking to reload the Yankees.

https://nypost.com/2018/10/10/greinke-corbin-arenado-heres-ideal-yankees-offseason-of-reloading/

 

And a word on Gray: Many teams will believe the righty (29 next month) salvageable, and there will be a trade market. His Vanderbilt pitching coach, Derek Johnson, is the Brewers’ pitching coach and — like Yankees dud A.J. Burnett — Gray could get traded into the NL Central and have success. Gray could help the Yankees do some system replenishing. Or how about two guys who would be entering their walk seasons off of down years: Gray for Milwaukee’s Jonathan Schoop, who in theory could play second, with Torres moving to third and Andujar to first? Schoop and fellow Curacao native Gregorius are friends

 

That is a really interesting theory, but it would be totally contingent on either reupping Moustakas or targeting a FA 2B like Murphy, Dozier or LeMaheau. Murphy would be my top choice, but he is likely looking for multiple years. They could get a stop-gap like Neil Walker for a year, or even turn over the position to a Dubon/Perez platoon. My choice would be to resign Moustakas and play Shaw at 2B, or if Moose walks, play Shaw at 3B and sign Murphy.

 

I personally would love to see what Johnson could do with Sonny Gray, though.

[Lathund]

One of the issues with Murphy is that he's an awful defender; much worse than Shaw is at 2B. Which is fine if he's hitting like he did in 2016 and 2017, but he was considerably worse than that this year. Would need to be fairly confident that was due to something either temporary or fixable (he did have some injury problems) if Brewers are to take a chance there. If Moustakas stays, then I'm all over the Schoop-Gray deal though (Even if it's just a writer speculating at this point). Aguilar-Shaw-Arcia-Moustakas in the infield, with Dubon and/or Perez to play 2B/SS/3B against tough lefties or to solidify defense. I'm also all for it if a decent FA deal can be had at 2B, but I have concerns over most of the 2B options on the market. Most of the good players would be looking for multi-year deals of varying size, and Brewers are mostly looking for a short term solution or insurance. Not sure enough quality can be had for that role.

[SRB]

Is 2019 Gray really better than Davies or Anderson? I don't see why we would trade a guy who was excellent last year but had a mediocre season this year (Schoop) for a guy who has been mediocre for years now.

[long ball]

The Brewers aren't committed to Schoop and his salary. I don't think it makes a lot of sense to offer arbitration if you're just going to turn around and trade him for an equally high salary gamble.

 

The Brewers can find a project starting pitcher for a lot less than $9mil that Gray is projected to earn in arbitration.

[FVBrewerFan]

Is 2019 Gray really better than Davies or Anderson? I don't see why we would trade a guy who was excellent last year but had a mediocre season this year (Schoop) for a guy who has been mediocre for years now.

 

No, he's not. I think the key is how Davies and Anderson feel about getting left out of the home stretch and the playoffs. They're being good teammates, which is great, but we don't know how they feel. Once the dust settles, if one of them really wants to move on, then the Brewers have to at least take that into account.

 

If they're "fine" then I don't see them trade, simply because the return wouldn't be enough to move them. You need that depth, especially depth at a reasonable salary.

[MadThinker88]

Some names to throw out there:

 

Robbie Ray

Carlos Rodon

James Paxton

Tyler Skaggs

Danny Salazar

Carlos Corrasco

Zack Wheeler

Joes Berrios (won't happen)

***typical names

Sonny Gray

Marcus Stroman

 

I understand the motivation to investigate a trade for Carlos Carrasco but please explain why Cleveland would be motivated to deal Cookie.

 

Cookie still is under club control for 2 seasons (2019 & 2020) if Cleveland picks up the team options and each year Cookie is cheaper in cost than Kluber (controlled via contract/ team options in 2019, 2020 & 2021) or Bauer (2 arbitration years of 2019 & 2020 remaining, projected for a $11.6M deal in 2019)...

 

It's not like Cleveland needs to rebuild or overhaul itself to remain competitive/ atop the AL Central in 2019.

[HarveysWBs]

Is 2019 Gray really better than Davies or Anderson? I don't see why we would trade a guy who was excellent last year but had a mediocre season this year (Schoop) for a guy who has been mediocre for years now.

 

 

Road appearances this year for Gray: 15 starts, 3.17 ERA, 1.155 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 3.55 K/BB, 61 tOPS+. That isn’t mediocre or average. That’s a guy who is in need of new scenery, who was probably messed up by what his coaches were asking him to do in NY. If Johnson could build wonders out of clay like Chacín and Miley, count me excited by what he could do with Gray, whose pedigree and track record looks like fine marble by comparison. Oh, and then there’s the history between the two. Frankly, it makes so much sense I’m hesitant to call it likely, only because Stearns seems to be all about zigging when he’s supposed to zag. Otherwise, this seems like a fait accompli.

[OnaBadger58]

Some names to throw out there:

 

Robbie Ray

Carlos Rodon

James Paxton

Tyler Skaggs

Danny Salazar

Carlos Corrasco

Zack Wheeler

Joes Berrios (won't happen)

***typical names At some point,

Sonny Gray

Marcus Stroman

 

I understand the motivation to investigate a trade for Carlos Carrasco but please explain why Cleveland would be motivated to deal Cookie.

 

Cookie still is under club control for 2 seasons (2019 & 2020) if Cleveland picks up the team options and each year Cookie is cheaper in cost than Kluber (controlled via contract/ team options in 2019, 2020 & 2021) or Bauer (2 arbitration years of 2019 & 2020 remaining, projected for a $11.6M deal in 2019)...

 

It's not like Cleveland needs to rebuild or overhaul itself to remain competitive/ atop the AL Central in 2019.

Well, the Indians were carrying an outfield that consisted of Brantley, Kipnis, Brandon Guyer, Rajai Davis, and Melky Cabrera (I understand Naquin and Zimmer were injured). At some point, at may be worth trading an asset to fix what has been a major need for this team. Triston Mckenzie is knocking on the door for the rotation. 42-44 vs non AL Central teams. This team was made to look better this year than they were due to their putrid division.

[TURBO]

Yankees will be trading Gray, I'm all for a shot in Milwaukee if the price was right, meaning not giving up much, and I love the fact he would be reuniting with DJ. If anyone can make him right again, it would be him.

 

If we are not bringing back Miley/Gio, Gray makes perfect sense.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yankees will be trading Gray, I'm all for a shot in Milwaukee if the price was right, meaning not giving up much, and I love the fact he would be reuniting with DJ. If anyone can make him right again, it would be him.

 

If we are not bringing back Miley/Gio, Gray makes perfect sense.

 

I agree completely. Gray is the perfect type of pitcher for this team to target.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Some names to throw out there:

 

Robbie Ray

Carlos Rodon

James Paxton

Tyler Skaggs

Danny Salazar

Carlos Corrasco

Zack Wheeler

Joes Berrios (won't happen)

***typical names At some point,

Sonny Gray

Marcus Stroman

 

I understand the motivation to investigate a trade for Carlos Carrasco but please explain why Cleveland would be motivated to deal Cookie.

 

Cookie still is under club control for 2 seasons (2019 & 2020) if Cleveland picks up the team options and each year Cookie is cheaper in cost than Kluber (controlled via contract/ team options in 2019, 2020 & 2021) or Bauer (2 arbitration years of 2019 & 2020 remaining, projected for a $11.6M deal in 2019)...

 

It's not like Cleveland needs to rebuild or overhaul itself to remain competitive/ atop the AL Central in 2019.

Well, the Indians were carrying an outfield that consisted of Brantley, Kipnis, Brandon Guyer, Rajai Davis, and Melky Cabrera (I understand Naquin and Zimmer were injured). At some point, at may be worth trading an asset to fix what has been a major need for this team. Triston Mckenzie is knocking on the door for the rotation. 42-44 vs non AL Central teams. This team was made to look better this year than they were due to their putrid division.

 

You nailed it. The Indians horrible outfield is what held them back this year, but instead of addressing it, they dealt their best trade chip for a set-up man. Not only is McKenzie knocking at the door, Salazar should be back. They have a abundance of ML-caliber starting pitching. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see them trade some of that depth to firm up their outfield.

[GAME05]

Who says we even need to trade for a SP and not just get FA one? I'm figuring that's what we'll do and the remaining starters will just be shifted to the bullpen to build more bullpen starts and just have that reliever who can go three innings. What we've got isn't going to bring back some big prospect, so why not just put option guys in AAA?

[MadThinker88]

Well, the Indians were carrying an outfield that consisted of Brantley, Kipnis, Brandon Guyer, Rajai Davis, and Melky Cabrera (I understand Naquin and Zimmer were injured). At some point, at may be worth trading an asset to fix what has been a major need for this team. Triston Mckenzie is knocking on the door for the rotation. 42-44 vs non AL Central teams. This team was made to look better this year than they were due to their putrid division.

 

You nailed it. The Indians horrible outfield is what held them back this year, but instead of addressing it, they dealt their best trade chip for a set-up man. Not only is McKenzie knocking at the door, Salazar should be back. They have a abundance of ML-caliber starting pitching. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see them trade some of that depth to firm up their outfield.

 

I believe I wasn't clear earlier.

I wasn't saying Cleveland wouldn't look to move some of the pitching depth. I was asking why Cookie would be the piece moved by Cleveland. He is controlled for the same length of time as Bauer (& is cheaper) & after the AL CY vote is announced, Kluber will be making nearly twice the amount as Cookie (17M vs 9.75M). For a smaller market with payroll limitations, that raises the value of Cookie in comparison to both those guys. Trying to trade for Cookie would cost more than those other 2 players.

 

IF you believe Salazar will return from injury to early 2016 pre-injury performance (& I am not confident he will), he would be the cheapest to acquire of the 4 (him, Kluber, Bauer, Cookie).

 

As for Cleveland trading Mejia for bullpen help during 2018 (instead of OF help), the bullpen was a bigger mess this season. Many of the injured outfielders (L. Martin, T Naquin, & B Zimmer) look to be back in 2019 at some point. The main bullpen guys (A Miller & C Allen) are now free agents & most likely gone so Hand/ Cimber will be foundation pieces in 2019 and beyond.

[MNBrew]

If I'm the Brewers, is there any reason not to try to bring back Miley? He HAS figured things out the way we'd hope other reasonable-cost potential reclamation projects (like Gray, whom I like the idea of) would. And given that he missed, oh, a good 1/3 or more of the season, you'd have to think he'd be at least somewhat reasonably priced. I like his pace on the mound & what I sense his attitude to be. . . . I think they have to try to re-sign him. If he feels he's worth way too much, then move on.

 

Re: Gray & his $9M salary, keep in mind that that's only about $1M more than we "overpaid" (per so many posters here) Chacin last winter.

 

I'd doubt Gio would be back. He was a classic deadline-type acquisition who did tons better in his limited outings than his '82 counterpart -- Doc Medich (not Don Sutton) -- did.

 

For all the doubt about MIL's SPs, we sure seem to have a lot of reasonably-paid guys who've gotten us mostly good returns on our investments in them. In the moments they weren't great, Davies & Anderson gave us some reasons to doubt them, but on the whole they're still decent assets at reasonable prices.

 

I'm not sure what a few of Thames, Schoop, and Broxton could bring us, plus maybe Perez and/or one of the established current starters already being discussed. It probably wouldn't be much in terms of star quality, but I'd take April-October substance (a la Chacin & Miley) over November-March headline excitement.

[ebmackenzie]

Matt Harvey and Sonny Gray are the ones Stearns will be looking at...but for my money...

 

It is the one year of Mad Bum that I would be all in on.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

If neither Miley or Gio are enticed back, the Brewers are going to have to bring in a lefty or two as initial out getters. They can't let 2 LHP walk and replace them with more RHP. I don't see the fit for Harvey or Gray unless there's a massive overhaul of the current controlled arms.

 

You've got Chacin, Nelson, Anderson, Davies, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, and Guerra all factoring into the 2019 group of initial out getters. They're all RHP. With the shift to piggybacking and tandem starts, you can be sure the Brewers are going to want to pair opposite-handed pitchers to dictate matchups. I have to believe Stearns wants at minimum two left handed pitchers added to the tandem mix. That's going to require some pretty significant maneuvering. Gonna be a fun and interesting offseason.

 

As an aside, the need to find 2 LHPs whether from outside the organization or by resigning Miley/Gio, provides all the more reason not to expect Schoop or Moustakas to be brought back at their current pricetags.

[3and2Fastball]

If neither Miley or Gio are enticed back, the Brewers are going to have to bring in a lefty or two as initial out getters. They can't let 2 LHP walk and replace them with more RHP. I don't see the fit for Harvey or Gray unless there's a massive overhaul of the current controlled arms.

 

You've got Chacin, Nelson, Anderson, Davies, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, and Guerra all factoring into the 2019 group of initial out getters. They're all RHP. With the shift to piggybacking and tandem starts, you can be sure the Brewers are going to want to pair opposite-handed pitchers to dictate matchups. I have to believe Stearns wants at minimum two left handed pitchers added to the tandem mix. That's going to require some pretty significant maneuvering. Gonna be a fun and interesting offseason.

 

As an aside, the need to find 2 LHPs whether from outside the organization or by resigning Miley/Gio, provides all the more reason not to expect Schoop or Moustakas to be brought back at their current pricetags.

 

Great post!

 

Strongly agree. I also doubt the Brewers look at Jennings or Cedeno as high priorities either. LHP will indeed be one of the main components of roster that the Brewers look to shore up this offseason. I could see Miley coming back, maybe, although somebody might overpay for him. Gio is more doubtful

[rickh150]

A lefty starter should be an early trade target. Suter, a lefty, should factor into our plans at some point; whether it is at the end of 2019 is anyone's guess. Miley should get a two year deal somewhere, probably too rich for Milwaukee now after his performances down the stretch. Gio could be had on a one year deal, but he will have other suitors too. The odds of having just one of these guys produce in a Brewers uniform next season is below 50% in my book so a trade for a similar lefty might be needed to balance out the starting pitching.

 

With the depth and added payroll for arby guys in 2019, you would have to believe that some players will simply be traded next year. Preach depth all you want, but the number of guys to simply pay seven figure contracts is way up. Having depth AND paying them next to nothing is one thing. Taking on larger contracts only to have them shifting between San Antonio and Milwaukee, or the rotation and bullpen, is another. The Brewers began trading away depth at the deadlines, guys that possibly weren't going to be on the 40 man roster this year. That should only continue.

 

Guys like Anderson and Davies are on the trade market, no doubt. They could be had in the right deal because they are getting paid, and we have already shown to have better options on the staff that are not. They each would be good candidates to be traded to small market teams because of their multi years of control and quality experience on a staff.

 

Merrifield and KC could be a match. Giving them an Anderson or Davies, along with a young and blocked bat (Ray), makes sense for both teams.

[ebmackenzie]

The case for adding a #1 from MLBTR.com

 

Jason

5:49 What do expect Brewers to address this offseasean considering how close they were to the World Series

Jason Martinez

5:51 I think they'll non-tender Schoop and look to add a 2B (bring back Scooter!). Their bullpen is one of the best, especially if they keep one of Woodruff or Burnes there with Knebel-Jeffress-Hader. They have a ton of SP depth and it was enough to get them to Game 7 of the NLCS. Jimmy Nelson could return, but can't rely on any pitcher returning from shoulder injury. So, at the least, I think they'll look to add a No. 1 starter.

[Madhawk23]

I know we talked about Merrifield a ton around the trade deadline, but I still love the idea of adding that bat to our lineup for 2019 and beyond. But, what would it take to get him from the Royals? Since they are now just starting their rebuild, I'm guessing they are going to want younger prospects - and probably wouldn't have any interest in a guy like Domingo or Chase, right? Could we package someone like Chase with a Corey Ray (as someone else suggested) and then maybe throw in another high ceiling prospect like Lutz or Zack Brown? Is that too much or too little to entice the Royals?

 

Or - do we think that the potential emergence of Hiura would make a deal like this off limits for Stearns, knowing that Keston could help as soon as next year already?

 

I just think that we need to lengthen out this lineup more with guys that can make good contact with the baseball and less K's. Seems like a guy like Whit would allow us to put more consistent pressure on opposing pitchers.

[long ball]

I know we talked about Merrifield a ton around the trade deadline, but I still love the idea of adding that bat to our lineup for 2019 and beyond. But, what would it take to get him from the Royals? Since they are now just starting their rebuild, I'm guessing they are going to want younger prospects - and probably wouldn't have any interest in a guy like Domingo or Chase, right? Could we package someone like Chase with a Corey Ray (as someone else suggested) and then maybe throw in another high ceiling prospect like Lutz or Zack Brown? Is that too much or too little to entice the Royals?

 

Or - do we think that the potential emergence of Hiura would make a deal like this off limits for Stearns, knowing that Keston could help as soon as next year already?

 

I just think that we need to lengthen out this lineup more with guys that can make good contact with the baseball and less K's. Seems like a guy like Whit would allow us to put more consistent pressure on opposing pitchers.

 

I originally was anti Merrifield, but I've actually come around to the idea.

 

Bring him in as the primary 2b until Hiura is ready then move him into a super sub role where he still gets ~500 PAs/year. I'm sick of Perez and the likes getting so many PAs. Hard to compete with the Dodgers and Cubs when they have significantly better super subs than the Brewers do.

 

Obviously cost of acquisition is a concern with Merrifield, but he's the type of player I'd like the Brewers to add. Lower k rate. Solid on base skills. Good base runner. Solid defender at several positions.

[Madhawk23]

I know we talked about Merrifield a ton around the trade deadline, but I still love the idea of adding that bat to our lineup for 2019 and beyond. But, what would it take to get him from the Royals? Since they are now just starting their rebuild, I'm guessing they are going to want younger prospects - and probably wouldn't have any interest in a guy like Domingo or Chase, right? Could we package someone like Chase with a Corey Ray (as someone else suggested) and then maybe throw in another high ceiling prospect like Lutz or Zack Brown? Is that too much or too little to entice the Royals?

 

Or - do we think that the potential emergence of Hiura would make a deal like this off limits for Stearns, knowing that Keston could help as soon as next year already?

 

I just think that we need to lengthen out this lineup more with guys that can make good contact with the baseball and less K's. Seems like a guy like Whit would allow us to put more consistent pressure on opposing pitchers.

 

I originally was anti Merrifield, but I've actually come around to the idea.

 

Bring him in as the primary 2b until Hiura is ready then move him into a super sub role where he still gets ~500 PAs/year. I'm sick of Perez and the likes getting so many PAs. Hard to compete with the Dodgers and Cubs when they have significantly better super subs than the Brewers do.

 

Obviously cost of acquisition is a concern with Merrifield, but he's the type of player I'd like the Brewers to add. Lower k rate. Solid on base skills. Good base runner. Solid defender at several positions.

 

Yeah, he seems like the exact type of player that the Brewers could use in their lineup. I do worry though about the cost of acquisition as well, as it seems as if the Royals were asking for a lot for him this trade deadline, which probably forced teams away (thus making him off limits).

 

With all of this said - if our front office thinks that Hiura is the "real deal" and will be ready to contribute at some point next year, then maybe a Whit deal doesn't make a lot of sense?

[adambr2]

Merrifield is going to cost way more than people think. He's averaging almost 5 WAR per season the last 2 years, guys with that kind of value and control don't come cheap, even though he's 29.

 

You probably need to headline with Hiura. Maybe not much else, but better be sold on Whit being your guy at 2B the next few years if you go this route.

[tmwiese55]

Kluber mentioned here. If you want your true ace there it is, and controlled for 3/52.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-trade-rumor-buy-or-sell-indians-shopping-veterans-including-corey-kluber/

[OnaBadger58]

Jeff Passan

@JeffPassan

 

Sources: Charlie Morton is not expected to receive a qualifying offer from the Astros. He's going to generate big-time interest on a short-term deal -- probably two years with an option.

 

3:23 PM - 2 Nov 2018