Trade Targets Starting Pitching 2018-19

[jjfanec]

So we have a free agent starting pitching thread but if you look through that list it is hard to find guys who are really that much better than what we currently have. So I have wondering who might be available via trade. It is hard to know what teams might go into sell mode in the off-season.

 

First there are the teams like most likely wont complete. Do they have starting pitching? Marlins, Tigers, White Sox, Royals, Rangers, Orioles, Blue Jays, Reds, Padres.

 

Then there are the teams that may realize they really are not that good. The Twins, Phillies, Giants, etc. But these teams could decide to try to buy an upgrade.

 

Then there are teams that might have a surplus of arms but lack hitting. The Mets being the prime example.

 

With all the pitchers we have - Chacin, Anderson, Davies, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Nelson, Guerra, etc. Could we package a bat and an arm for an upgrade?

[ougiqbxy]

I could easily see the Brewers keep Schoop, try to keep Moustakas by adding a couple years to his one year option. This leaves the door open to trading Travis Shaw(with multiple years of control) along with prospects for someone.

 

I think the team that is in flux and could be looking to upgrade a depleted farm because that farm cannot be made to bolster their decent team from this last season is the Mariners.

 

Travis Shaw and a package of non-Frontline prospects to the Mariners for James Paxton.

[jjfanec]

Part of me wonders if Shaw was being shipped for a starter at the deadline. Right now I could see the Brewers packaging a bat and a guy like Woodruff or Davies or Anderson for a better starter. This team has a lot of flexibility to trade from.

[bill hAll Star]

Part of me wonders if Shaw was being shipped for a starter at the deadline. Right now I could see the Brewers packaging a bat and a guy like Woodruff or Davies or Anderson for a better starter. This team has a lot of flexibility to trade from.

 

1. Moustakas' control is only guaranteed through the end of this season so they'd have a black hole at 3B next year potentially.

 

2. Have you seen the success they've had with him at 2B? This had to have been their plan.

[bill hAll Star]

With all the pitchers we have - Chacin, Anderson, Davies, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Nelson, Guerra, etc. Could we package a bat and an arm for an upgrade?

 

I don't think that if the Brewers have a chance to package some players and consolidate/upgrade their rotation that they'd necessarily pass...but we've now seen it play out through a full season.

 

This staff devalues the role of starting pitcher. They'd have to get a heck of a deal to pull the trigger on a frontline starter. They'll continue to dumpster dive and then use their depth as either a rotation strength or in long relief roles.

[jjfanec]

Part of me wonders if Shaw was being shipped for a starter at the deadline. Right now I could see the Brewers packaging a bat and a guy like Woodruff or Davies or Anderson for a better starter. This team has a lot of flexibility to trade from.

 

1. Moustakas' control is only guaranteed through the end of this season so they'd have a black hole at 3B next year potentially.

 

2. Have you seen the success they've had with him at 2B? This had to have been their plan.

 

And you are probably completely right it just seemed with the Schoop trade that maybe Shaw became expendable. Let me be clear - I do not want to trade Shaw. I actually think he is really underrated here

 

There is a part of me that really think Moose will resign here and will Shaw be a 2b for a full season?

[jjfanec]

With all the pitchers we have - Chacin, Anderson, Davies, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Nelson, Guerra, etc. Could we package a bat and an arm for an upgrade?

 

I don't think that if the Brewers have a chance to package some players and consolidate/upgrade their rotation that they'd necessarily pass...but we've now seen it play out through a full season.

 

This staff devalues the role of starting pitcher. They'd have to get a heck of a deal to pull the trigger on a frontline starter. They'll continue to dumpster dive and then use their depth as either a rotation strength or in long relief roles.

 

 

The thing is with all the pitchers they have - especially if the resign Miley - they could trade a guy or two and still have great depth. Now they could trade for an upgrade at catcher and thin out the rotation there but if they packaged a bat and pitcher for a pitcher that really wouldnt decrease the number of starters.

 

This is also predicated on a healthy Nelson. Not a Nelson who is a complete stud but one who is a solid starter. you would have

1. Chacin

2. Nelson

3. Miley

4. Burnes

5. Peralta

6. Woodruff

7. Davies

8 Anderson

9. Guerra

 

Trading even two starters and a bat for one higher end starter would still let your rotation be 8 guys deep. I dont know the trade market well enough but say the Mets wanted a bat for a guy like Wheeler. What type of bat and pitcher would it take? They obviously need hitting and maybe even relief pitching. Could a trade be had there? Wheeler was lights out the second half of the year. Or a lesser deal for a guy like Kyle Gibson.

 

We have a glut of OFers. We have a lot of guys who can play 1B. We have a lot of starters. If a deal is there I would rather go this way than overpay for a starter in free agency.

[Eye Black]

I think the biggest name starting pitcher likely to be traded this off-season is Madison Bumgarner.

 

The starting pitcher that I don’t think will be available this off-season, but has a decent chance to be available leading up to next season’s July trade deadline is James Paxton.

 

I don’t know if the Brewers would realistically make an attempt to acquire either of those pitchers.

[ilikewisco]

I think Jon Gray would be a good target/break out candidate. Has been pitching at Coors with mixed results and has put together some pretty good runs, along with some really bad stretches, even getting sent down before the all star break. Maybe offer Aguilar and one of our starters like Davies and see if they'd bite. They were starting a SS at 1b against us, and it gives McMahon a little more time.

[MNBrew]

I could see Moustakas coming back and Shaw staying at 2B as far more optimal for the Crew than keeping Schoop & moving Shaw back to 3B ... OR keeping Schoop & Moustakas and trading Shaw.

 

Stearns' mantra is "controllable young talent." To me, Shaw's one the guy to keep for sure:

- He's under control longer (3 arby-eligible years ahead of him).

- He's got better power overall (best HR:GP ratio of the 3), better OBP, better SLG, & better OPS. BA for all 3 is about the same.

- Shaw (28.5 years) is pretty much halfway between Schoop (about to turn 27) & Moustakas (a month over 30) age-wise -- right about 1.5 years either way to the other two.

 

Problem is, you'd be selling low on Schoop. Yet, while we have great depth now, we won't be able to keep all of it on the 25-man by the time it's set late next spring. Something will have to give. With so many guys on the roster, sometimes you have to cut your losses. Schoop's overall package of skills is, to me, both least desirable and least cost-effective.

 

Aguilar's within a half-year of Shaw age-wise. Again, controllable young talent. I don't look to trade him, either. He had a good 2017 and a mega-good 2018. Even with a so-so 2nd half, the sum of what he brought was still good. Eric Thames is a great team guy but he's older and far less productive.

 

All that said.... I have a hard time thinking about who might be a viable & realistic yet significant SP to go after. Packaging a few capable & not outrageously priced guys, maybe with a quasi-prospect or two, might help return someone of significance. Thames, Schoop, & Davies/Anderson along with someone super young (A-ball or Rookie level) could help net a good return. I'm not sure they'd get us Bumgartner, but there's quality in that group and the right circumstances or timing might yield an SP we could really use. Wouldn't be quite like AZ giving up 6 guys for Richie Sexson, but maybe there's a combination of just enough guys from our depth that it could net us a big-ish fish.

[chuckiehacks]

Thames, Schoop, & Davies/Anderson along with someone super young (A-ball or Rookie level) could help net a good return.

I don't think that moves the needle for any team - who's going to want to add $20MM+ to their payroll and take on three guys that were platooned & didn't even make the postseason roster?

[jjfanec]

Thames, Schoop, & Davies/Anderson along with someone super young (A-ball or Rookie level) could help net a good return.

I don't think that moves the needle for any team - who's going to want to add $20MM+ to their payroll and take on three guys that were platooned & didn't even make the postseason roster?

 

I team that realized Thames lacked playing time to be consistent, Schoop is a year removed from being really good and the same is true for Davies and Anderson. I dont think you would include all of those guys and think one of our young trio - Peralta, Woodruff, Burnes - would need to be included. But I do think Thames, Schoop, Davies or Anderson could have value to quite a few teams.

 

We forget how deep we really are. Anderson had a pretty solid ERA and a good WHIP this year. He just gave up an insane amount of home runs which isnt the norm for him. Davies is young and has only had one bad year out of 4. His numbers overall would play on most rotations. Thames when playing regularly was putting up great numbers - then he got hurt and Aguilar went off and he just couldnt get on the field and struggled. Thames had an OPS of .900 the first half of the season and of .877 last year. Average that to .890 over a year and a half and he is the 15th best OPS in baseball. He just had a terrible second half.

 

GMs are smart and will look closely at those players. Just like Stearns is smart and will look to see if other outside candidates have the same value and upside as our current guys. Honestly, I like Chase and Davies more that almost all FA pitchers this coming year.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Thames, Schoop, & Davies/Anderson along with someone super young (A-ball or Rookie level) could help net a good return.

I don't think that moves the needle for any team - who's going to want to add $20MM+ to their payroll and take on three guys that were platooned & didn't even make the postseason roster?

 

I team that realized Thames lacked playing time to be consistent, Schoop is a year removed from being really good and the same is true for Davies and Anderson. I dont think you would include all of those guys and think one of our young trio - Peralta, Woodruff, Burnes - would need to be included. But I do think Thames, Schoop, Davies or Anderson could have value to quite a few teams.

 

We forget how deep we really are. Anderson had a pretty solid ERA and a good WHIP this year. He just gave up an insane amount of home runs which isnt the norm for him. Davies is young and has only had one bad year out of 4. His numbers overall would play on most rotations. Thames when playing regularly was putting up great numbers - then he got hurt and Aguilar went off and he just couldnt get on the field and struggled. Thames had an OPS of .900 the first half of the season and of .877 last year. Average that to .890 over a year and a half and he is the 15th best OPS in baseball. He just had a terrible second half.

 

GMs are smart and will look closely at those players. Just like Stearns is smart and will look to see if other outside candidates have the same value and upside as our current guys. Honestly, I like Chase and Davies more that almost all FA pitchers this coming year.

 

You are 1,000% correct. All of those guys will have a fair amount of value if made available.

[3and2Fastball]

I think you will find Stearns overturning the roster to rebuild depth in the minor leagues, not so much to upgrade major league takent. Players like Schoop, Davies, Thames, Santana could be traded for prospects.

[Lathund]

I'm not so sure Schoop/Thames/Anderson/Davies gets us much. They are good players and would have value in general, but consider which teams might be looking to trade away a starting pitcher and what they'd look to get in return. It'd most likely be a team that's rebuilding, and not looking to be competitive for the remaining year(s) of team control of said pitcher. What would they then need Schoop (1 year), Thames (2 years), Anderson (3 years) or Davies (3 years) for? I'm not saying it's out of the question, perhaps there is a team that is contending, has a starter with only one year remaining that they won't/can't extend and are in need of a bat, and would be willing to accept a downgrade in the rotation for that. But it'd take a very specific set of circumstances for that, as generally the teams who would be interested in the abovementioned players don't want to give up top quality starters, and the teams that would make those guys available wouldn't be interested in short-term talent.

 

Perhaps the way to acquire pitching via trade would be indirectly, to trade our surplus for prospects, and trade prospects (Not necessarily the same ones) for pitching. That being said, I 'm not so sure there is much in the way of big upgrades on the trade market, at least not ones that won't cost us Burnes/Ray/Hiura. Maybe not even then. I'd be more interested in trying to find a buy low candidate with upside, that could be acquired for very little. Some possible candidates for that would be the Grays; Sonny and Jon. Jon Gray is only 26, has 3 or 4 years of team control remaining, and his peripherals are better than the ERA would suggest. Whether he's actually better than he appears is something I'll leave up to DS and his team, but he might be. Come to think of it, it would also be one of the few situations where a Schoop/Thames package would be of interest; Rockies have a very good rotation already, but they trot out Ian Desmond at first base, they struggle against RHP, and DJ LeMahieu is a free agent. Sonny Gray looks likely to be done in NY, and only has 1 year remaining. There's the DJ connection, and he probably won't be all that expensive. Not as good a match for the actual trade though; they seem to have found a 1B they like in Voit for now, but perhaps some other deal can be struck. Thinking even further outside the box; Alex Cobb has a much better second half (2.56 ERA) after a disastrous first half; if there's something that suggests a real improvement there (I have no idea, haven't seen him), and Orioles are willing to eat some of the salary, that's another possibility (Well, not for a Schoop/Thames trade of course, but some other trade)

 

Anyway, those might not necessarily be the targets we'd be after, just a few names that came to mind, and more represents the general type of trade I'd be after. I want us to keep our young MLB-ready starting pitching (Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff in particular, guys like Brown too ideally), as well as Hiura and Ray who are close to MLB, have a high potential upside and in addition to that play in position/roles of need (2B is obvious, but a lefty RF/CF is also a very good fit). So I'd be willing to accept not going after the top-level trades if it means keeping those guys, and instead try to see what we can get for the guys we're hoping the above mentioned prospects would replace. Which means, naturally, players who for one reason or another will be available relatively cheaply.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think you will find Stearns overturning the roster to rebuild depth in the minor leagues, not so much to upgrade major league takent. Players like Schoop, Davies, Thames, Santana could be traded for prospects.

 

Stearns has to be careful in just doing fire sales to clear roster space. Zach Davies is not a guy I throw into the clearance sale bin for minor league depth. He'll be 26 and he's a proven successful major league starter. Chase Anderson might get you a bit more than low level prospects and his rotation spot can/will be filled by one of the young guys. It might even be a good time to sell high on Chacin.

[mrn1ceguy]

I think you will find Stearns overturning the roster to rebuild depth in the minor leagues, not so much to upgrade major league takent. Players like Schoop, Davies, Thames, Santana could be traded for prospects.

 

Stearns has to be careful in just doing fire sales to clear roster space. Zach Davies is not a guy I throw into the clearance sale bin for minor league depth. He'll be 26 and he's a proven successful major league starter. Chase Anderson might get you a bit more than low level prospects and his rotation spot can/will be filled by one of the young guys. It might even be a good time to sell high on Chacin.

 

I'm thinking the same thing. Next year try to move Anderson for low level prospects, Chacin for either prospects or bullpen help (assuming Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta are moving to the rotation), and do more of the same for whomever of Thames, Schoop, Broxton, Santana pull value and keep the rest for depth.

 

I don't think any of those major leaguers could help us get a top tier starting pitcher, but we might have one or several new top tier starters next year in Nelson, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff (or Hader?).

[long ball]

Nightengale tweeted out this morning that the D'Backs are likely to sell this winter. Which makes sense. They have several impact type players who are free agents this winter in Corbin and Pollock. Then Goldy and Boxberger are FA after 2019.

 

Robbie Ray would be an interesting target. Two years of arbitration remaining and huge strike out numbers.

 

EDIT: the more I look at the D'backs roster the more I think they could have a Brewers like turnaround if they make good trades. Goldy, Ray, Peralta, Boxberger, and Bradley could be their version of Lucroy, Gomez, Fiers, Thornburgh, Parra, Gallardo, etc. They actually probably have more interesting trade chips than the Brewers had.

[Jose Cardenal1]

I just don't see the Brewers making a starting pitching move. I think Stearns & co. are very happy with Burnes, Woody & Peralta as options to augment, Chacin, Anderson, Davies, Nelson(?), Guerra and I think there is a good chance they bring back one of Miley or Gio.

 

I think it is more likely they go after a bullpen arm assuming they do not pick up Soria's option.

 

I realize this topic is for Starting Pitching but the move I would hope is made is to strengthen the everyday lineup with another hitter. The most obvious choice for me is JT Realmuto. An elite player at his position that would upgrade the everyday lineup considerably (no offense to Pina or folk hero Kratz).

 

Prediction: Cubs add Harper, Cards add Machado and the Brewers add Realmuto. What a division that would be. Poor Reds & Pirates.

[long ball]

I just don't see the Brewers making a starting pitching move. I think Stearns & co. are very happy with Burnes, Woody & Peralta as options to augment, Chacin, Anderson, Davies, Nelson(?), Guerra and I think there is a good chance they bring back one of Miley or Gio.

 

I think it is more likely they go after a bullpen arm assuming they do not pick up Soria's option.

 

I realize this topic is for Starting Pitching but the move I would hope is made is to strengthen the everyday lineup with another hitter. The most obvious choice for me is JT Realmuto. An elite player at his position that would upgrade the everyday lineup considerably (no offense to Pina or folk hero Kratz).

 

Prediction: Cubs add Harper, Cards add Machado and the Brewers add Realmuto. What a division that would be. Poor Reds & Pirates.

 

I agree with you that the Brewers could definitely use an upgrade to the line up.

 

I just have a hard time paying the prospect price for Realmuto. He's a great player- probably the best catcher in the league right now. It's just tough for catchers to hold up offensively for multiple years.

 

I'd rather spend the cash on Grandal than the prospects on Realmuto although I think both are unlikely to land in Milwaukee.

 

A bat at second base or corner OF would be nice. That bat could be Santana though.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I just don't see the Brewers making a starting pitching move. I think Stearns & co. are very happy with Burnes, Woody & Peralta as options to augment, Chacin, Anderson, Davies, Nelson(?), Guerra and I think there is a good chance they bring back one of Miley or Gio.

 

I think it is more likely they go after a bullpen arm assuming they do not pick up Soria's option.

 

I realize this topic is for Starting Pitching but the move I would hope is made is to strengthen the everyday lineup with another hitter. The most obvious choice for me is JT Realmuto. An elite player at his position that would upgrade the everyday lineup considerably (no offense to Pina or folk hero Kratz).

 

Prediction: Cubs add Harper, Cards add Machado and the Brewers add Realmuto. What a division that would be. Poor Reds & Pirates.

 

I agree with you that the Brewers could definitely use an upgrade to the line up.

 

I just have a hard time paying the prospect price for Realmuto. He's a great player- probably the best catcher in the league right now. It's just tough for catchers to hold up offensively for multiple years.

 

I'd rather spend the cash on Grandal than the prospects on Realmuto although I think both are unlikely to land in Milwaukee.

 

A bat at second base or corner OF would be nice. That bat could be Santana though.

 

I think the team's regular 2B is already on the team. It's going to be Shaw if they re-up Moustakas, or Schoop if they don't. I suppose they could take a chance on someone like Dozier, Murphy or LeMaheau on a short, cheap deal. There looks to be quite a few solid 2B options on the market this year.

[long ball]

You could be right, but I have a hard time seeing them pay Schoop $10 mil next year or Moustakas $15 mil.

 

I originally thought offering arb to Schoop was a no brainer, but I've turned on that a bit. Looking at the free agent market I think there are better 1 year bargains out there whether it be at third base or second base.

[OnaBadger58]

Some names to throw out there:

 

Robbie Ray

Carlos Rodon

James Paxton

Tyler Skaggs

Danny Salazar

Carlos Corrasco

Zack Wheeler

Joes Berrios (won't happen)

***typical names

Sonny Gray

Marcus Stroman

[bensheeps]

Joel Sherman floats the Sonny Gray idea in the New York Post in an article looking to reload the Yankees.

https://nypost.com/2018/10/10/greinke-corbin-arenado-heres-ideal-yankees-offseason-of-reloading/

 

And a word on Gray: Many teams will believe the righty (29 next month) salvageable, and there will be a trade market. His Vanderbilt pitching coach, Derek Johnson, is the Brewers’ pitching coach and — like Yankees dud A.J. Burnett — Gray could get traded into the NL Central and have success. Gray could help the Yankees do some system replenishing. Or how about two guys who would be entering their walk seasons off of down years: Gray for Milwaukee’s Jonathan Schoop, who in theory could play second, with Torres moving to third and Andujar to first? Schoop and fellow Curacao native Gregorius are friends

[monkeyman343434]

I'd be all for a Schoop for Gray trade.