Building a 2019 super-pen

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Mildly confirmed...that's some kind of stretch. I saw the same quote, he didn't even remotely confirm anything. The only thing he did was leave open the possibility of any of those guys either starting or relieving.

 

But he DID literally say that they will continue to blur the line between starter and reliever.

 

Exactly, thank you. If anything I was holding back so as not to stir the naysayers. I'm still waiting for my stalker to show up and tell me how wrong I am. When Stearns comes right out and states these things it does tend to make things easier.

[KeithStone53151]

So you mean they are going to have something in between a 1 inning reliever and a starting pitcher. I wonder if they are referring to...multi-inning relievers. Ill leave this sit for now, and be sure to bring it back up when the season starts and we have a standard 5 man rotation.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So you mean they are going to have something in between a 1 inning reliever and a starting pitcher. I wonder if they are referring to...multi-inning relievers. Ill leave this sit for now, and be sure to bring it back up when the season starts and we have a standard 5 man rotation.

 

I think you are likely right. The Brewers will likely have more relievers capable of going multiple innings than most teams, but that is a result of Counsell's preference for early hooks than any sort of groundbreaking change in philosophy. Most teams see middle relief as an area to hide their worst pitchers. It's obvious that the Brewers disagree.

[long ball]

I have mlb network radio on in the background a lot during the day. They interview a lot of GMs and mangers. They ask almost every single one of them how they feel about the opener/bullpenning.

 

Most will say that they don't think it's sustainable over the course of the season and that the only way to be able to do it is to have a very deep staff and have multiple guys with options where you can continue to cycle through them. Well, the Brewers had that type of squad last year and should have that again in 2019. While it mostly looked traditional in 2018 with starters starting and throwing a bulk of the innings it did start to trend on bullpen heavy. Early hooks for starters, longer stints for relievers.

 

The Brewers have 17 pitchers on the 40 man roster who have already shown they can contribute on the mlb roster and many of them still have options. They're a team who can afford to be creative. I think they push it a little further in the regular season in 2019 than they did in 2018.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

So you mean they are going to have something in between a 1 inning reliever and a starting pitcher. I wonder if they are referring to...multi-inning relievers. Ill leave this sit for now, and be sure to bring it back up when the season starts and we have a standard 5 man rotation.

 

Looking forward to it. Stearns has now alluded to tandems, piggybacking, and blurred lines between starters and relievers at least twice this offseason. Everything he's saying and doing is lining up exactly with what I said would happen. And there's no room on a staff set up this way for pitchers who typically face a batter or two at a time.

[KeithStone53151]

So you mean they are going to have something in between a 1 inning reliever and a starting pitcher. I wonder if they are referring to...multi-inning relievers. Ill leave this sit for now, and be sure to bring it back up when the season starts and we have a standard 5 man rotation.

 

Looking forward to it. Stearns has now alluded to tandems, piggybacking, and blurred lines between starters and relievers at least twice this offseason. Everything he's saying and doing is lining up exactly with what I said would happen. And there's no room on a staff set up this way for pitchers who typically face a batter or two at a time.

 

He has never alluded to tandems or piggybacking. He has only alluded to blurred lines between starters and relievers, which is much more likely referring to guys like Guerra who have done both and not backing himself into a corner regarding what his role may or may not be. If not that, you could argue he's simply requiring more of his relievers be able to go multiple innings. Last I checked, multi-inning relievers aren't some sort of ground-breaking innovation to the game.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

You want to go with "nevers" huh? Just because you missed it or don't remember it doesn't make it so. I wonder what you'll have to say when these tandems, piggybacking, and non-traditional roles are on full display come April.

[pacopete4]

Much like anything else in life, it is probably in between what both of you are saying. I don't think it is that revolutionary to totally honest. Just using our average'ish pitchers in a more effective way rather than letting them get clobbered the third time around. The rest of this is a pissing match.

[ebmackenzie]

We were #6 in MLB this year for team ERA....how much more can we improve.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?lg=MLB&year=2018

This graph thinks we can improve our BP a lot! When Dan Jennings has 71 relief appearances...it is time to bring in a former closer to remedy some of that.

[Humans Need Water]

You want to go with "nevers" huh? Just because you missed it or don't remember it doesn't make it so. I wonder what you'll have to say when these tandems, piggybacking, and non-traditional roles are on full display come April.

The Brewers are no doubt going with 13 arms so what will this look like then come April, hypothetically...

[True Blue Brew Crew]

The Brewers are no doubt going with 13 arms so what will this look like then come April, hypothetically...

 

It's a staff comprised of 7-8 pitchers traditionally thought of as starters and supplemented primarily by multiple inning relievers. And as others have pointed out, it's supplemented by shuttled players in waiting at AAA.

 

Initial Out Getters (IOG), Tandem Pairs, and/or Piggyback Partners

 

Chacin

Burnes

Peralta

Woodruff

Nelson

Anderson

Guerra

Davies

 

 

Mid-to-Late Game Out Getters - One Time Through Multiple Inning Guys

 

Hader

Knebel

Jeffress

Claudino

 

That's 12. A guy like Albers if not moved, will be around for the remaining year of his deal and would be the one pitcher still used in short stints. He'd make 13.

 

Still leaves people like Barnes, Williams, Houser, Wilkerson, Diplan shuttle in from AAA. And that's also before adding a single IOG via free agency or trade. I have to believe they'd like to add a LH IOG. If a Miley or the like is brought in, then you take one of the top 8 and stash in AAA or one of them might go out in a trade for an IOG. And there's no guarantee that Nelson is ready out of the gates. The team might not even want him to be. An IOG or one of the guys on the list currently ticketed for AAA could be who ends up in that IOG/Tandem/PB group.

[KeithStone53151]

Diplan is absolutely not an option, at least not yet. Maybe you meant Derby? Are these guys in the top 8 going to be on set schedules? Like pitching every 4th day? Or every 3rd day? Or will they maybe roll with 5 of them in a rotation with 3 being used as multi-inning relievers?

[wallus]

Pretty sure Houser has no options.

[Humans Need Water]

So basically something like:

 

Mon - Chacin/Burnes (3 innings each = 1 time through for most part)

Tues - Peralta/Woodruff

Wed - Nelson/Anderson

Thur - Davies/Guerra

 

Then Hader/Knebel/Jeffress/Claudio/+ 1 multi-inning pen arms take over each game...other arm maybe a revolving door type due to having options.

 

Then rinse and repeat? Am I interpreting this correctly?

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Diplan is absolutely not an option, at least not yet. Maybe you meant Derby? Are these guys in the top 8 going to be on set schedules? Like pitching every 4th day? Or every 3rd day? Or will they maybe roll with 5 of them in a rotation with 3 being used as multi-inning relievers?

 

Diplan is on the 40-man so I included him as a possible shuttle option as the season progresses. He could very easily be in the mix in the 2nd half.

 

The big question would be do they go the tandem route or the piggyback route. That's why I haven't settled on using one term or the other.

 

Do they go set tandems where one guy is the initial out getter on a Monday and then his tandem partner is the IOG on Friday with flip-flopping based on matchups?

 

Hypothetical: On Monday Woodruff is the IOG with Guerra matched with him. And on Friday Guerra is the IOG with Woodruff slated to follow at some point.

 

Or do they piggyback where the IOGs stay the same and they are supplemented with designated long men matched with them?

 

Hypothetical: Guerra is the IOG on Monday and Friday , capped at 3-4 innings, and Woodruff is pitches multiple innings behind him on both Monday and Friday.

 

My personal opinion is that it will be tandems with the IOG constantly in flux depending on dictating matchups with the opposing batting order.

[adambr2]

Diplan is an option. Probably not on opening day, but throughout the course of 2019? Sure, I can absolutely see him making his debut at some point.

 

Will we have a listed 5 man rotation on opening day for the purposes of filling out a depth chart? Probably, maybe, I don't know. Does it really matter? Will we remain flexible on this in terms of callups, roster management, pitch counts, matchups, etc? Yes, it certainly appears so.

 

The amount of innovation going on here is subject to interpretation, I guess, but I think there's pretty clearly a lot more going on than just carrying some extra middle inning relievers.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

So basically something like:

 

Mon - Chacin/Burnes (3 innings each = 1 time through for most part)

Tues - Peralta/Woodruff

Wed - Nelson/Anderson

Thur - Davies/Guerra

 

Then Hader/Knebel/Jeffress/Claudio/+ 1 multi-inning pen arms take over each game...other arm maybe a revolving door type due to having options.

 

Then rinse and repeat? Am I interpreting this correctly?

 

With the pairings subject to change, yes. And not necessarily with the designated paired pitcher immediately following the IOG. Yesterday I hypothesized sandwiching Claudino in-between a hard throwing IOG and another hard throwing IOG-type. Something like this...

 

Burnes for 3-4 innings - Claudino for 1-2 innings - Woodruff for 3-4 innings. And Burnes and Woodruff (or any other pairing) could have their roles in reverse the next time out.

 

I haven't even begun to study which pairings might be most effective together.

[KeithStone53151]

Diplan is absolutely not an option, at least not yet. Maybe you meant Derby? Are these guys in the top 8 going to be on set schedules? Like pitching every 4th day? Or every 3rd day? Or will they maybe roll with 5 of them in a rotation with 3 being used as multi-inning relievers?

 

Diplan is on the 40-man so I included him as a possible shuttle option as the season progresses. He could very easily be in the mix in the 2nd half.

 

The big question would be do they go the tandem route or the piggyback route. That's why I haven't settled on using one term or the other.

 

Do they go set tandems where one guy is the initial out getter on a Monday and then his tandem partner is the IOG on Friday with flip-flopping based on matchups?

 

Hypothetical: On Monday Woodruff is the IOG with Guerra matched with him. And on Friday Guerra is the IOG with Woodruff slated to follow.

 

Or do they piggyback where the IOGs stay the same and they are supplemented with designated long men matched with them?

 

Hypothetical: Guerra is the IOG on Monday and Friday , capped at 3-4 innings, and Woodruff is pitches multiple innings behind him on both Monday and Friday.

 

My personal opinion is that it will be tandems with the IOG constantly in flux depending on dictating matchups with the opposing batting order.

 

I think it pretty clearly sounds like you are advocating for IOG pitching every 4th day, and then 4-5 guys to mop up any remaining innings. And in your scenario, Claudio is the only guy with options that you would actually ever option. No way is Hader or Knebel going down unless they suck, they'd never get optioned. I also personally doubt that Claudio would get optioned for rest reasons.

 

You're basically counting on those last 4-5 guys to cover 1-3 innings per game assuming no extra innings. That only works if those back 4 never ever ever falter, and your IOG can definitely get you 6 innings every outing. Otherwise you're going to run into serious coverage issues since the IOG are basically locked in to their respective games. Also the optionable guys are mostly IOG, and Barnes/Williams aren't guys that would fall into the IOG category...those 2 are primarly RH specialists on a bad day and a 2 inning guy on their very very best day, but reality is you shouldn't ever count on 2 innings from either guy.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

It's very clear to me that you're not understanding what I'm saying while others are. And that's fine.

[KeithStone53151]

It's very clear to me that you're not understanding what I'm saying while others are. And that's fine.

 

I'm pretty sure you're using a theoretical approach and not factoring in anything that could potentially cause issues. Theory and practice are wildly different.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

It's pretty easy to pinpoint why it's tough to nail down an exact blueprint for how this will all look in 2019. Because it's going to take time to implement. Pieces like a Matt Albers don't fit into this future model. 1 inning guys and specialists are around today but they won't be used that way in the future. But Albers has a guaranteed year left on his deal. Jennings and Cedeno didn't. As I said in "The Future of Pitching", you're not going to cap off present day's Max Scherzer at 4 innings. But as time passes, they way pitchers are developed prior to getting to the majors, the idea of a 35 start, 200+ inning pitcher will no longer exist. 2019 won't fit into a precise model. But I can, and will go so far as to state for the record, that the Brewers will utilize tandems/piggybacks to cover some percentage of what would typically be considered an every 5th day rotation. That's happening. Come April you will not see 5 rigid names listed as projected starters when you look at a schedule. You won't see it in May. You won't see it in June, You won't see it in July...

[True Blue Brew Crew]

It's very clear to me that you're not understanding what I'm saying while others are. And that's fine.

 

I'm pretty sure you're using a theoretical approach and not factoring in anything that could potentially cause issues. Theory and practice are wildly different.

 

Right it's going to take time. But to deny that it's going to figure very prominently in 2019 is ignoring what's already underway. You can't turn over an entire pitching staff overnight. They did let 2 LH specialists walk though. And they spent some rather valuable draft capital to replace them with a guy whose only plus over them is his ability to cover more innings. That move alone should be a big clue as to how they plan to utilize their staff.

[KeithStone53151]

It's very clear to me that you're not understanding what I'm saying while others are. And that's fine.

 

I'm pretty sure you're using a theoretical approach and not factoring in anything that could potentially cause issues. Theory and practice are wildly different.

 

Right it's going to take time. But to deny that it's going to figure very prominently in 2019 is ignoring what's already underway. You can't turn over an entire pitching staff overnight. They did let 2 LH specialists walk though. And they spent some rather valuable draft capital to replace them with a guy whose only plus over them is his ability to cover more innings. That move alone should be a big clue as to how they plan to utilize their staff.

 

It's obvious the Brewers value multi-inning relievers. That isn't anything new. I don't see us shifting from a 5 man rotation though, at least not for significant chunks of the season. September and playoffs are different animals and you don't really need a set rotation for that, but that tactic isn't exactly new either. I won't consider you right on this unless we have something other than a fairly solid 5 man rotation.

[Brew crew 92]

Jacob Barnes a modern day version of Don Stanhouse-Earl Weaver nicknamed him "Full Pack" -in and out of trouble constantly so much so Earl claimed he would smoke a pack when Stanhouse pitched.

 

[Brew crew 92]

This is slightly curious, in that in this 96 win pennant winning year Peralta had success in starting 14 times, while Woodruff started 4 times and Burnes 0 times, even though Peralta is the youngest of the 3.

 

All 3 will be ready for the rotation next year, and it'd difficult for me to put any of them in the pen--unless a couple of them pair up on a piggy back type routine on 3 days rest. The pigpen rotation, if you will.

 

Barring injury, Chacin is obviously a lock to begin the year in the rotation.

 

For the first time in my Brewerfandom there is either going to be a trade or a lot of competition come next March/April due to too much starting pitching depth.

 

It's exciting isn't it! You're touching on how the final decisions will be made a little better than most. One thing people are missing is that these guys have to be ready to go through a batting order multiple times. The Brewers used Woodruff and Burnes the way they did yesterday because they know they can successfully go through an order once. All three of Peralta, Burnes, and Woodruff are on the path to being fixtures of the rotation. Being on the path does not equal starting 2019 in the rotation. Woodruff for instance only had his fastball yesterday. Another trip through the Rockies lineup likely would have been ugly.

 

Of the 3, only Peralta has demonstrated the ability to successfully navigate a MLB lineup multiple times through the order. Burnes has yet to be called on to even attempt it. And Woodruff has fared poorly the 2nd time through. Before anyone gets up in arms, that's not to say Burnes and Woodruff can't do it, it just means they're far from locks to be called on to do it out of the gate in 2019. Peralta is also ahead of both in terms of building up innings.

 

Here are the splits for the 3 in their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd tiime through the order...

 

Peralta - 1st (.176 BA, .315 OBP, .294 SLG, .609 OPS)

Peralta - 2nd (.174 BA, .278 OBP, .276 SLG, ..654)

Peralta - 3rd (.191 BA, .255 OBP, .319 SLG, .574 OPS)

 

Burnes - 1st (.200 BA, .273 OBP, .326 SLG, .599 OPS)

Burnes - 2nd - (only 1 batter faced a 2nd time through)

Burnes - 3rd (none)

 

Woodruff - 1st (.206 BA, .265 OBP, .317 SLG, .582 OPS)

Woodruff - 2nd (.323 BA, .405 OBP, .484 SLG, .889 OPS)

Woodruff - 3rd (only 2 batters faced a 3rd time through)

 

Takeaways...

 

- I don't know how anyone could look at those numbers for Peralta and not be excited. Notice also that his walk rate has gotten better the deeper he gets into the game. He doesn't nibble the 2nd and 3rd time through like many who aren't comfortable in their stuff. He attacks more.

 

- Burnes hasn't demonstarted the ability to go through an order multiple times but he hasn't shown that he can't either. Burnes also has shown 2 very strong pitches nearly every time out including yesterday. He's very close. A 3rd pitch that he can throw 10-15% of time gets him over the hump. Again, he's very close.

 

- Woodruff is the furthest from a lock of the 3, imo. He's been given the chance to navigate a lineup a 2nd time through and it hasn't been pretty. He needs to add more to his arsenal or he could stagnate as a very effective reliever.

 

I have high hopes that all 3 can be fixtures of the future rotation. All 3 are displaying dominance at the major league level. All 3 have the ability to give multiple looks to major league hitters. None have taken steps backward and that's probably the most important factor in all this.

 

Prediction for 2019...

 

Peralta in the rotation from day 1.

Burnes in the MLB bullpen from day 1, transitioned into MLB rotation full time during 2019 season

Woodruff begins 2019 in AAA as a starter and makes spot starts in MLB rotation and finishes 2019 in MLB bullpen

 

Really enjoyed Reading TBBC’s takes, hoping to see him back soon.