Building a 2019 super-pen

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I sorta wonder if they go to a 6-man rotation next year in an effort to limit innings on the young guys. They should have the depth to do it.

[adambr2]

I sorta wonder if they go to a 6-man rotation next year in an effort to limit innings on the young guys. They should have the depth to do it.

 

I think they want shorter outings with less time between outings.

 

As someone else said I am very excited to see what they come up with, but I don't think it'll be traditional.

 

I could see a 6 man piggybacked rotation of 2 guys with different styles who go about 3 innings each and then get 2-3 days off before going again, with the traditional pen taking over after the 6th.

 

Maybe that's too extreme. Maybe not.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Until they have a bullpen full of guys conditioned to all go 3 innings on average, I think they'll need a couple traditional guys to cover innings. Chacin is an obvious one. One of Anderson or Davies, is likely another. 2 spots could be piggybacked by the foursome of Nelson, Burnes, Peralta, and Woodruff. Still calls for one more traditional guy is my guess. Maybe they are able to get Miley back. Maybe Nelson can go right back to being a horse, though I doubt it. Or maybe they uncover another reclamation. As they go this route, it doesn't leave much room for 1-inning guys on the 12-man staff. That likely means guys like Soria and Cedeno are valued less and less.

[tmwiese55]

I'd guess the recently discussed innings issues will be address by shuffling up and down from AAA and 10 day DL stints to skip starts or kind of take breaks throughout the year. Plus to go along with any legit injuries that happen. But say Burnes opens as a starter and all is going well, 2-3 months into the year if he has a bad game, shoulder is sore, velo is down for a game, well then toss him on the 10 day for 2 week break and bring Peralta up. Kind of shuffle through the guys as needed. One or two in AAA keeping stretched out but on an innings and pitch limit to keep stress down, stuff of that nature.

[clancyphile]

I think there is an extremely good chance that Zach Brown is treated the same way Burnes was this year, and is brought up at some point mid-season next year to serve as a pen piece. Woodruff, Burnes, Brown, Webb ... this team has really hit it out of the park lately on drafted college arms.Hoping that Kirby and Rasmussen are next in line if they can get over the injury woes.

 

Suter was also proving very valuable until his Tommy John.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think there is an extremely good chance that Zach Brown is treated the same way Burnes was this year, and is brought up at some point mid-season next year to serve as a pen piece. Woodruff, Burnes, Brown, Webb ... this team has really hit it out of the park lately on drafted college arms.Hoping that Kirby and Rasmussen are next in line if they can get over the injury woes.

 

Suter was also proving very valuable until his Tommy John.

 

Forgot about Brent because he is older, but yes, him too. I hope he makes it back at some point next year.

[TURBO]

I think there is an extremely good chance that Zach Brown is treated the same way Burnes was this year, and is brought up at some point mid-season next year to serve as a pen piece. Woodruff, Burnes, Brown, Webb ... this team has really hit it out of the park lately on drafted college arms.Hoping that Kirby and Rasmussen are next in line if they can get over the injury woes.

 

Suter was also proving very valuable until his Tommy John.

 

Was he? I thought I remembered him starting to struggle quite a bit before his injury...

[adambr2]

Either way I think you have to assume that 2019 is going to be rehabilitation year for Suter with no on field contributions.

[MrTPlush]

I would not be surprised if Suter never puts on a Brewers uniform again. He will be arby eligible after next year and wasn't the greatest before the injury. Guessing he would have a chance to come back on a MiLB deal.

[HiAndTight]

1. Barnes has some good stuff, and comes a lot cheaper than Soria.

2. The idea of multiple relief aces is to not only protect leads, but to keep a game close. Imagine having the depth to keep another team's lead at one run, as opposed to letting them put on more.

3. I think the current roster can build a pen with multiple relief aces. That was the biggest problem - the Crew only had one Hader. Now, Hader is still unique as a lefty, but Woodruff and Peralta in the pen WITH Hader... now you can put someone good in, and keep a game close so the bats can win it.

 

 

I have a ton of thoughts on this entire thread, namely how I am 100 pct in on the Brewers signing Corbin if possible as a Free Agent...something I'm seldom in favor of. I just think he's got the type of stuff and being a lefty that if you sign him for 5 years, you'll get 3 really good years and then as he ages, I think he'll still be able to be a good middle of the rotation type pitcher.

 

But as far as Barnes, I won't be fooled by him again. Last year..as in 2017 I looked at him as a guy who looked a lot like Knebel statistically. He also pitches similar to him. The difference is....Barnes has been given chance after chance and can't get it done.

 

So while relievers are ridiculously unpredictable and he may VERY WELL jump out next year and have an ERA around 2.00 and get 14 K's per 9, I'm no longer looking at him as a future fixture in our pen.

 

I also think too many people think that the way we approached the playoffs is a sustainable template for a competitive team. That was born out of necessity. I'm sure the Brewers would rather have a rotation that can give them 5-6 quality innings in those situation and then go to a great pen. I don't think we can(or will have to) go back into 2019 with guys starting who are so unremarkable and only pitch them 2-4 innings and compete.

 

Nelson helps fix that. A Corbin(again, a dream) would CERTAINLY help fix that. But for right now I would like to see Woodruff stick in the pen and go with a rotation of Nelson/(my dream FA Burnes)/Chacin/Peralta/Burnes(try to skip those last two every few times through the rotation so they can keep their innings low). And then you still have Woodruff, Anderson(who remember, was pitching like a really good 3 or even #2 before struggling this year).

 

 

And whoever mentioned Brown, we have no idea how the young guys in the minors will pitch. It's entirely reasonable that we could have a couple guys(I'm even thinking Ponce, Diplan, Supak along with the obvious Houser) that we're not counting on now, but who force their way into the staff in some way come Sept 2019.

 

 

 

Finally, I know just about everyone on here realizes this, but I think some are expecting Burnes to come in as a starter and hit 98 and sit in the 95-96 area and Peralta's going to hit 97 and sit in the 93-95 area as starters. I think Burnes is more in the 92-95 range and..we already saw Peralta. His fastball is effective because of deception and delivery, but he's usually 91-92 for the most part. So their stuff is gonna "play down" if they're throwing 175 innings next year.

[MrTPlush]

I just don't get wanting a guy like Patrick Corbin. We are returning every single pitcher pretty much PLUS we are adding full years from the young guys AND Nelson will return in some form. The same pitching that steamrolled through September and October, BUT we still couldn't make it to the World Series let alone win it!

 

You have to score runs for that pitching to even matter! We had guys pitch like they were Patrick Corbin and we still failed in the end. We have the pitching to win it all, we need a more balanced line-up and more offense in general.

 

To not stray off topic I will leave it at that.

[HiAndTight]

I just don't get wanting a guy like Patrick Corbin. We are returning every single pitcher pretty much PLUS we are adding full years from the young guys AND Nelson will return in some form. The same pitching that steamrolled through September and October, BUT we still couldn't make it to the World Series let alone win it!

 

You have to score runs for that pitching to even matter! We had guys pitch like they were Patrick Corbin and we still failed in the end. We have the pitching to win it all, we need a more balanced line-up and more offense in general.

 

To not stray off topic I will leave it at that.

 

 

Because I don't think throwing out #4-5 starters minus Nelson(with whom their are enormous question marks given the nature of his injury....I'd be far more confident if he were coming back from a TJ injury) is a sustainable road to success. What's more, if you're moving Woody, Burnes and Peralta into your rotation, what type of BP do you really have next year? We all know how volatile relievers are. Would ANYONE be surprised if Jeffress posts an ERA of 4 next year? Or if Knebel loses it? So you add that to a weakened BP and what WAS the strength of this team is now a enormous weakness(potentially).

 

Couple that with the fact that I believe we have a difference making bat on it's way up and will be up next year and COULD be a ROY candidate and I'm not sure where we add this bat? 1st, SS, 3rd are all covered, be it Braun/Aguilar, Arcia/Dubon and Shaw. 2nd base should be fine if we keep Schoop, if we go with a Perez/Dubon combo until Hirura gets ready...

 

Adding a Catcher would be nice, but expensive and I don't see that massive upgrade unless we end up with Realmuto which wouldn't really impact our payroll that significantly anyway....but I'm not sure how we get him now without giving up one of the young pitchers we're counting on or Hirura. Our OF is loaded with Yelly, Braun, Cain, Santana and I'll even throw Broxton into the mix. So I'm not sure where we're going to pick up this impact bat to a lineup that was already second in the league in HR's.

 

 

On the flip side, I think I spelled out already why I'd want Corbin. He's a legit ace. A lefty with a wipeout slider who we could pair with Nelson, another potential ace, Chacin as our 3 and then still keep some of our talented arms in the BP and build off that strength.

 

 

All of that and our offense was 2nd in HR's, 1st in Stolen Bases and 4th in OPS. So I'm not seeing where that's the problem. We're in the world series if Jeffress doesn't blow game 2 or if we can move a guy from 2nd and no outs over and then in.

 

PLUS...while trying to not get too long winded, the impact players this off-season are Machado...who'd be a great addition, but I don't like the guy and he cost the Dodgers in our series by just not running, Harper who I love....but again, we don't really have a spot for with our crowded OF and both are likely to get double what Corbin is going to get.

 

 

So our offense was actually better than our pitching this year and I'm not counting on another Wade Miley to come throw and I just believe that BP is THAT much better if you have two guys atop your rotation who you can count on to give you 6-7 innings every 5th day(and the fact he's a lefty).

 

 

I guess give me an alternative to adding to this team that you think would be more beneficial while being realistic? I think Mark A would be willing to pony up for a guy like Corbin, but I don't think he or anyone on here wants to go 10 years and 300-400 million for one of the top two position players available.

 

Next Sept Lineup

1-Cain

2-Hirura

3-Yelich(L)

4-Aguilar

5-Shaw(L)

6-Braun

7-Catcher, probably Pina

8-Arcia

 

Rotation

1-Corbin(L)

2-Nelson

3-Chacin(who I'm also not confident in him duplicating his perforamance and I'd actually like to sell high on but doubt it)

4-Burnes

5-Peralta

BP

This is always a question mark. You seldom know how guys will respond year after year...but as of NOW..

Knebel

Hader

Woodruff

Jeffress

 

And not only am I forgetting a couple guys, but I'm sure we'll add guys. But my point is, if you're going to move all these guys into the rotation, you go from having a dominant pen to a question mark in the pen. And maybe Brown, Diplan, Ponce, Houser and those guys will force their way in....But I just don't see this team significantly improving(and one could argue they don't NEED to significantly improve their peronsonel given they won 100+ games this year).

 

 

Long story short, this offense was pretty good all year long and I'm more confident that the offense will be able to continue to produce than I am that our starting pitchers will and I'm not gonna let game 7 of the NLCS when we faced a filthy young ace in Buehler and then Jensen and Kershaw to overshadow what they did as a whole during the year.

[jjgott]

Our Super-Pen will be without QTC who will be out all of 2019 with Tommy John surgery:

 

@Haudricourt

Big development from #Brewers farm system: LHP Quintin Torres-Costa, who had big year for @skysox, has undergone Tommy John surgery and will miss all of next season. Was one of players eligible for Rule 5 draft this winter. Injured in final series of year.

[HiAndTight]

I'll just add ONE more thing. There was no NEED for the Astros to go out and add a guy like Cole to their rotation this year....a rotation that still would have been 5 GOOD starters deep and coming off a WS title...but they found the most talented arm available and targeted him. I guess I'm just of the belief that there's nothing wrong with building upon a area of strength by making it that much stronger....especially when I can't find a fit in our lineup or a player that I can see making that type of impact sans MAYBE Realmuto..and his stock is higher now than ever and I don't believe they trade him without one of Burnes/Hirura/Peralta/ or a slew of talented prospects in the 6-15 range in our system.

 

And if Yelich doesn't struggle in the post-season, we're likely playing tonight in Boston...so I see your point, I just don't agree with it in this particular scenario. If we were talking about Darvish or Arietta from last year, or Happ or whoever makes it this year, I'd agree. But I think Corbin's an ace and I believe he'll only pitch better the next 2-3 years.

[tmwiese55]

Good write up, nothing crazy and all makes sense as a reasonable take.

 

My disagreement would be: First, I would disagree that the offense was good all year long. It had the bouts of shutouts all year. Two players on the whole team were consistent all year. Well, I guess Shaw too but he's consistently just ok and consistently can't hit lefties. this was the weakness of the team all year and it came back to bite them at the worst time.

 

Second, Corbin had one awesome year in a contract year. We talk of the volatility of relievers, but trusting a SP due to one good season as a "legit ace" as described here is a bit much. Now he's about to be 30 and we're going to pay him into his mid 30s based off that year, I'm skeptical on that being a smart move given our financial situation. The two years before he had an over 5 and over 4 ERA. The safer spend of the money is on hitting and then hoping our legit talent P prospects can provide low 3s ERAs especially since they'll likely be getting pulled a touch early before getting in trouble.

[MrTPlush]

We were #6 in MLB this year for team ERA....how much more can we improve. We will already see improvement from all the full years of guys who came up mid way in the year.

 

The Houston Astros on the other hand were #11 in 2017...I can see improvement there when they had the #1 offense in all the land scoring a ridiculous 5.54 runs a game. Of course they were going to upgrade there pitching. Hard to reason improving that offense.

 

I think trying to fix a vulnerable #12 offense is easier than trying to improve on a #6 pitching staff. That was our rankings this year.

 

 

 

THAT being said I fully support making sure this pen is the best in all the land. Having an elite pen every year will make us almost unbeatable in a WC or NLDS setup...that's what is so bright for us in the near future.

[TURBO]

Our Super-Pen will be without QTC who will be out all of 2019 with Tommy John surgery:

 

@Haudricourt

Big development from #Brewers farm system: LHP Quintin Torres-Costa, who had big year for @skysox, has undergone Tommy John surgery and will miss all of next season. Was one of players eligible for Rule 5 draft this winter. Injured in final series of year.

 

Geez, what a blow............................that blows!

[ebmackenzie]

Our Super-Pen will be without QTC who will be out all of 2019 with Tommy John surgery:

 

@Haudricourt

Big development from #Brewers farm system: LHP Quintin Torres-Costa, who had big year for @skysox, has undergone Tommy John surgery and will miss all of next season. Was one of players eligible for Rule 5 draft this winter. Injured in final series of year.

 

Geez, what a blow............................that blows!

 

My feeling on this exactly.

I was high on this being one of the AAA rubber arms that comes up and goes down due to all the options.

He was ready to come in and be an interchangeable LHP with X and now Dan Jennings returning has merit. Yuck.

 

Baseball-reference.com had the MKE bullpen as a -1.8 WAA due in part to Jennings' 72!! appearances.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Just want to remind everyone once again that Corbin Burnes only pitched 125 total innings this year. He certainly seems ready to be one of the initial out getters, but a traditional, season-long, starting role from day 1 seems out of the question for a team with playoff aspirations. To expect 200+ innings would be foolhardy. And you want that guy come October. Innings will have to be monitored to make that happen.

 

The more I think about this, I think the Brewers will scrap the traditional 5-man right away in 2019. They're not going to want to hold back the young trio (Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff) but they have to be mindful of innings as well. Perhaps they'll be some piggybacking combined with 1-3 traditional starters. I can't wait to see what they unveil for the start of 2019. I'm quite confident it won't be what people have grown accustomed to.

 

Mildly confirmed / alluded to today by Stearns.

[KeithStone53151]

Just want to remind everyone once again that Corbin Burnes only pitched 125 total innings this year. He certainly seems ready to be one of the initial out getters, but a traditional, season-long, starting role from day 1 seems out of the question for a team with playoff aspirations. To expect 200+ innings would be foolhardy. And you want that guy come October. Innings will have to be monitored to make that happen.

 

The more I think about this, I think the Brewers will scrap the traditional 5-man right away in 2019. They're not going to want to hold back the young trio (Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff) but they have to be mindful of innings as well. Perhaps they'll be some piggybacking combined with 1-3 traditional starters. I can't wait to see what they unveil for the start of 2019. I'm quite confident it won't be what people have grown accustomed to.

 

Mildly confirmed / alluded to today by Stearns.

 

Mildly confirmed...that's some kind of stretch. I saw the same quote, he didn't even remotely confirm anything. The only thing he did was leave open the possibility of any of those guys either starting or relieving.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Just want to remind everyone once again that Corbin Burnes only pitched 125 total innings this year. He certainly seems ready to be one of the initial out getters, but a traditional, season-long, starting role from day 1 seems out of the question for a team with playoff aspirations. To expect 200+ innings would be foolhardy. And you want that guy come October. Innings will have to be monitored to make that happen.

 

The more I think about this, I think the Brewers will scrap the traditional 5-man right away in 2019. They're not going to want to hold back the young trio (Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff) but they have to be mindful of innings as well. Perhaps they'll be some piggybacking combined with 1-3 traditional starters. I can't wait to see what they unveil for the start of 2019. I'm quite confident it won't be what people have grown accustomed to.

 

Mildly confirmed / alluded to today by Stearns.

 

Mildly confirmed...that's some kind of stretch. I saw the same quote, he didn't even remotely confirm anything. The only thing he did was leave open the possibility of any of those guys either starting or relieving.

 

The quote you're referring to isn't the one I am. I'm referring to this...

 

GM David Stearns on whether young pitchers Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff would be considered in pen if didn't make rotation in camp: "We're open to anything. We are continuing to blur the lines between starting and relieving."

 

There's no stretching needed there. Stearns is laying it right out there for all of you.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I was being conservative saying he mildly confirmed it. I did so because I realize there will still be doubters until the season arrives and the piggybacking is on full display.

[KeithStone53151]

Mildly confirmed...that's some kind of stretch. I saw the same quote, he didn't even remotely confirm anything. The only thing he did was leave open the possibility of any of those guys either starting or relieving.

 

The quote you're referring to isn't the one I am. I'm referring to this...

 

GM David Stearns on whether young pitchers Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff would be considered in pen if didn't make rotation in camp: "We're open to anything. We are continuing to blur the lines between starting and relieving."

 

There's no stretching needed there. Stearns is laying it right out there for all of you.

 

So your bold quote = we will definitively scrap the 5 man rotation to open 2019? Reeeeeeeeeeally? We'll see if you're right. I saw you patting yourself on the back in an old, closed thread...just because you guessed correctly that we would either keep Jennings/Cedeno or add a LHRP(which was super obvious btw) doesn't mean you are right about everything.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Time will tell. It's all happening just as I spelled it out. If anything it's accelerating faster than I expected.

 

And the post of mine I quoted wasn't done to show being right about the LHP addition, it was to re-illustrate how a staff comprised primarily of multi-inning pitchers would look in 2019. They needed another multi-inning lefty and it looks like Claudio will be that guy.

[adambr2]

Just want to remind everyone once again that Corbin Burnes only pitched 125 total innings this year. He certainly seems ready to be one of the initial out getters, but a traditional, season-long, starting role from day 1 seems out of the question for a team with playoff aspirations. To expect 200+ innings would be foolhardy. And you want that guy come October. Innings will have to be monitored to make that happen.

 

The more I think about this, I think the Brewers will scrap the traditional 5-man right away in 2019. They're not going to want to hold back the young trio (Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff) but they have to be mindful of innings as well. Perhaps they'll be some piggybacking combined with 1-3 traditional starters. I can't wait to see what they unveil for the start of 2019. I'm quite confident it won't be what people have grown accustomed to.

 

Mildly confirmed / alluded to today by Stearns.

 

Mildly confirmed...that's some kind of stretch. I saw the same quote, he didn't even remotely confirm anything. The only thing he did was leave open the possibility of any of those guys either starting or relieving.

 

But he DID literally say that they will continue to blur the line between starter and reliever.