Building a 2019 super-pen

[OldHeidelberg]

Why do we have to trade them for an ace? Why do we need an ace? How about we just stop making our starters pitch the 6th when they aren't doing that well or get them out when they struggle in the 5-6th? Our starters have numbers way better than they are because we have such a good deep bullpen. Do what we are doing now.

 

Why even have an ace who can only pitch 1 out of 5 days...and that day your offense might just drop an egg rendering that ace totally wasted. deGrom had out of this world stats yet his team went 14-18 in his starts.

 

I have always been a fan of creating a super pen...which we essentially trot out there these days. Just make sure we have some solid starters and we will win a ton of games. The super pen can win a championship...it is why people are picking us to get to the WS. Bullpens also tend to be more reliable come October vs. starters.

 

Super pen for life. Destroy opponents in the games you have a chance to win and not waste your best pitchers in games you have low odds of winning.

 

Things worked out pretty well for us schedule wise this year, the one time we played a long stretch of games the pen did breakdown a bit and we didn't have the stopper to bail them out. I remember Nelson throwing a complete game last year at a key point where the bullpen was totally gassed, we don't need a rotation like the Mets but I still believe it really helps to have that one top guy going out every 5 days. Stating the obvious I know but just to make a point about why have an ace I would sure rather have deGrom than Chacin going for us today, even with all the days off in the playoffs I am a little nervous about all the guys we used for more than 1 inning yesterday and I don't see Chacin going 6-7 on short rest. Would be great if the offense could make it easy on us after the pitching carried things yesterday.

[MadScientist]

The Brewers have the pieces to have an excellent pen next year, even if Burns, Woodruff and Peralta are in the rotation. The key to a super pen is going to be options. Not as in the options in the pen, but minor league options. The Brewers success in large part this year came from blowing away the notion of a 25 man roster. Using options, 10-day DL stints and a deep roster of AAA arms, they acted like they had a larger roster. When September came and roster games didn't matter, they absolutely dominated, even though starters often went less than 5 innings.

 

The corollary to that is there have to be minor league pitchers on the 40-man roster ready to contribute.

[Jenkins5]

Woodruff is past point of going back to AAA to start. He is a mlb pitcher & it’s like he is all tha young. He will be in rotation or pen & I believe rotation unless his March is as awful as it was last March.

 

Brewers have been persistently say Burnes will move back to rotation. Nothing in his track record says he won’t excel. He hasn’t faltered at all in any role since day he was drafted.

 

Peralta has had some incredible flashes & forced Brewers to keep starting him. If he struggles it will be in first & with command. He comes in throwing strikes, other team is in trouble. Fact Brewers trusted him enough to use a 25 man spot on him says a lot.

 

All three with good Spring can earn rotation spot & think it is there’s to lose. One struggles, they all can be weapons out of the pen. Don’t see less than 2 of them in rotation.

 

Houser is big dark horse in pen. Healthy now, huge arm strength to go with solid off speed. Think he could fit in well. Williams I expect to continue to get better.

 

I agree with Brown being our 2018 Burnes come June/July

[adambr2]

Watching how effective our pitching staff was in Game 1 for the first 8 innings and how seamlessly everything went according to plan, it makes me wonder if the setup was not simply a playoff one-off, but even a glimpse into the future. I mean, heck. The 2018 Brewers defied the logic of the importance of starting pitching. They won 96 games and Jhoulys Chacin was their best starter.

 

I'm both spitballing and speculating here, but I think it's possible we could see the 2019 further blur the lines between starter and reliever. I think you could see something of a 2 part rotation. Three traditional starters. Just throwing out names based on who we have now, but I'd say those are Chacin, Anderson and Davies in 2019. The workhorses. A healthy Nelson belongs in this group too, but I'm going off the assumption he'll be worked in slowly in 2019.

 

Then, a 4 man "short" rotation. Guys who take the ball typically on anywhere between 2-5 days rest and go anywhere between 2-5 innings at any point in the game depending on need, matchup, and workload. For 2019, I would put Nelson, Burnes, Peralta, and Woodruff in this category. I'd like a lefty somewhere, but I don't know who it would be. Gio or Miley if re-signed, or someone else who isn't here yet. The thing about this is that they have some flexibility here. If a guy takes 40 pitches to get through an inning and is laboring, you can go to the next one without having to worry about major ripple effect from a short start. Or if a guy is dealing and having quick innings, you've got some flexibility to ride him out for 50-60 pitches.

 

I'd add a 5th guy who is expected to work multiple innings wherever needed and is regularly rotated between AAA and MLB to stay fresh. Houser would be one guy ideal for this position, and a guy such as Marcos Diplan might be a suitable rotation candidate with Houser. (somewhat similar to how Houser and Lopez were used much of this season).

 

You're only left with 5 "traditional relievers" which isn't a bad thing because you're left with the best of the best for the most important innings. These are Jeffress, Hader, Knebel, one LOOGY (probably Cedeno or QTC), and probably Barnes or Williams for the last spot, unless Soria is retained, then it's him.

[brewmann04]

Chase and Davies will

Not be part of the 2019 rotation. I think Woodruff and Burnes are in their spots

[Lahoud]

Jacob Barnes a modern day version of Don Stanhouse-Earl Weaver nicknamed him "Full Pack" -in and out of trouble constantly so much so Earl claimed he would smoke a pack when Stanhouse pitched.

[adambr2]

Chase and Davies will

Not be part of the 2019 rotation. I think Woodruff and Burnes are in their spots

 

I personally would not make that assumption. I think we, myself included, tend to be prisoners of the moment. In July the majority of us were ready to sell off Woodruff to rent Manny Machado and didn't see much of a future here for Woodruff. Things change quickly, but I do think we need to step back and look at the body of work from Davies and Anderson.

 

Anderson had a down year for sure, but still was not horrible. Prior to that, he was one of our best starters, and signed a 4 year deal prior to 2018. If he's not traded, I'd expect him in the rotation.

 

Burnes I agree will be in the rotation. I don't think it's out of the question that Woodruff could find himself in the pen in 2018 in Burnes' role especially now that he's become more of an exclusive fastball/slider guy.

[Bobafett89]

I'd rather see Jennings back than Barnes

[Mr Southpaw]

As long as you have young pitchers with options, I think you will see the AAA to MLB shuttle throughout the season. Having a set 12 or 13 pitchers just does not happen with real injuries and with the situational needs that happen during the year. I trust CC and DS to work it all out.

 

That being said , I an going to enjoy the post season and around the new year start to begin the hot stove.

[tigerbrew]

I'm leaning towards picking up Soria's option for next year, he's another closer along with Hader, Knebel and Jeffress, the Four Horsemen of the Brewers bullpen apocalypse.

[PeaveyFury]

If they're not sure about Peralta in the rotation with his lack of secondary pitches, I could see them using him as a right-handed Hader next year. His fastball is electric, and one time through the order (or presumably less) could allow him to be a dominant RHP for 1-2 innings.

[jerichoholicninja]

If the pitching continues to dominate in the playoffs I see no reason to change anything with how guys are used next year.

[homer]

Watching how effective our pitching staff was in Game 1 for the first 8 innings and how seamlessly everything went according to plan, it makes me wonder if the setup was not simply a playoff one-off, but even a glimpse into the future. I mean, heck. The 2018 Brewers defied the logic of the importance of starting pitching. They won 96 games and Jhoulys Chacin was their best starter.

 

I'm both spitballing and speculating here, but I think it's possible we could see the 2019 further blur the lines between starter and reliever.

 

Makes sense. Also makes sense in that Woodruff and Burnes (and maybe Peralta?) won't be able to pitch 180+ innings next year.

[obobo55new]

Just wanted to throw this out because I was a fan long ago of Wes Obermueller. He would have thrived in this new world. Yost kept making him go out for the 5th and 6th innings and trying to get him to go longer into games. He would regularly get shelled the 3rd time through the order despite good results up to that point.

 

 

Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/W BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+

1st PA in G, as SP 20 180 162 18 44 8 1 4 1 0 14 19 1.36 .272 .331 .407 .739 66 4 1 2 1 0 1 .286 80 100

2nd PA in G, as SP 20 173 152 12 37 7 0 2 0 0 16 18 1.13 .243 .316 .329 .645 50 4 1 2 2 0 0 .261 59 69

3rd PA in G, as SP 18 119 106 27 39 11 3 7 0 0 10 10 1.00 .368 .420 .726 1.147 77 1 1 0 2 0 2 .352 172 177

[OldHeidelberg]

The super pen certainly isn't new to playoff baseball but I wonder how sustainable combining it with serviceable 5 inning starters like we did this year in the regular season is. Good bullpens always seem like a house of cards to me unless you have like 3 consistently elite guys and they can be as tough to find as TOR starters. Things are going great until Axford can't get his damn off speed pitch over, even this year we had the wheels come off for Albers and Knebel and had to trade a prospect for Soria. Knebel's resurgence has given us 3 guys again and has been key to this playoff drive, and that seemed unlikely in mid August. This was touched on earlier with the "if I had Hoffman and Rivera" comment but my feeling is the super pen strategy like we used it this year might produce more up and down years vs the traditional building around a stable of quality starters.

 

That said hard to argue with the results right now and we are always at a disadvantage in the stable of starters market unless we develop our own. I guess what I am saying is I think a TOR starter or 2 is a nice compliment to a super pen.

[rickh150]

My prediction for starting rotation beginning 2019:

 

Nelson

Chacin

Burnes

Peralta

Woodruff

 

That is a rotation that has a chance to be special.

 

With Davies and Anderson back, this is not the rotation in 2019. Anderson and Davies are in until they are traded.

Chacin

Nelson

Anderson (probably traded)

Davies (possibly traded)

Burnes or Peralta

 

Bullpen- I think Woodruff threw exceptionally hard in the pen! He was at 98 often. He takes Burnes role. Suter gets a long role.

 

Knebel

Hader

Jeffress

Woodruff

Barnes

Cedeno

Suter

Guerra

[AKCheesehead]

Everybody's got Nelson penciled into the rotation for 2019 but I could see logic to having him work out of the bullpen to start out. I'm a big Jimmy fan, but given not pitching in over a year, and the injuries he's coming off of, a rotation spot is far from a given at this point in time.

 

Anecdotally, I had my rotator cuff operated on 25 months ago. The strength is basically back, but not all the way. I know Jimmy is bigger, tougher, younger and harder working than I am. I'm just saying, I know that it takes a long time to come back from that type of operation. To suppose we're going to get what 170-200 innings from him next year, well I don't know about that. I'll be extremely happy and proud for him if he does it.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think Woodruff ends up as a premier reliever. His velocity out of the pen was significantly higher than when he started, and he's really a 2 pitch pitcher.

 

Now Burnes has 4 pitches. He's said once he's back starting, he'll use his changeup which he's kept under wraps as a reliever. Guerra too figures in the bullpen picture for 2019.

 

The rotation on opening day could look like:

 

Chacin

Burnes

Miley

Davies

Nelson

 

Peralta is the wild card if Miley isn't re-signed or Nelson can't come back.

 

I think odds are very high Anderson is dealt. I don't sense they are ready to give up on Davies however.

 

Pen on opening day: Knebel, Hader, Woodruff, Jeffress, Guerra, Jennings, Williams

[adambr2]

Think I'm with Briggs on Woodruff and Burnes. I could see Woodruff being a weapon out of the pen, possibly a RHP Hader type. I wouldn't pencil him into the rotation yet.

 

Burnes projects much more as a starter. Peralta I could see going either way. And there is still the matter of how they want to work Nelson back in.

 

Can't remember ever having this many high end pitching options.

[coolhandluke121]

The super pen certainly isn't new to playoff baseball but I wonder how sustainable combining it with serviceable 5 inning starters like we did this year in the regular season is.

 

Having so many guys with options helps a lot. I wouldn't expect a dramatic overhaul next year. They will preserve their depth and give guys like Davies and Anderson multiple starts. They will stash some talented players in AAA. They may treat Burnes and Woodruff the way the Dodgers treated Buehler this year, knowing they wanted to limit his innings but have him strong for the stretch run.

 

I predict there will be lots of frustration with making some of the young guys wait again next year, but I think it will prove wise in the long run because it will limit everyone's workload and be a hedge against injury. They won't trade Anderson or Davies unless it's likely to be a pretty good trade IMO.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The super pen certainly isn't new to playoff baseball but I wonder how sustainable combining it with serviceable 5 inning starters like we did this year in the regular season is.

 

Having so many guys with options helps a lot. I wouldn't expect a dramatic overhaul next year. They will preserve their depth and give guys like Davies and Anderson multiple starts. They will stash some talented players in AAA. They may treat Burnes and Woodruff the way the Dodgers treated Buehler this year, knowing they wanted to limit his innings but have him strong for the stretch run.

 

I predict there will be lots of frustration with making some of the young guys wait again next year, but I think it will prove wise in the long run because it will limit everyone's workload and be a hedge against injury. They won't trade Anderson or Davies unless it's likely to be a pretty good trade IMO.

 

I agree ... you don't trade solid, established, and most importantly, affordable starting pitching just to do it. There are probably 25 other teams who would love to have Anderson in their 2019 rotation at $6 million.

 

Playing the option game with your young pitchers effectively gives you a larger roster. And they can do that with Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Houser, Supak, Brown, Diplan and even guys like Webb, Harber and Derby, assuming all are on the 40-man.

[long ball]

If 17-18 taught us anything it should be that they'll need ~10 SP to get through the season and that the opening day rotation doesn't really mean anything when it comes to the rotation in September/October.

 

One concern is they'll need some minor league arms to take a step forward to fill those roles of Houser, Lopez, and Woodruff who sorta bounced back and forth between the minors and majors. Barnes and Williams still have options. Woodruff maybe pitched himself into a full time big league pitcher. Houser is out of options.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Just want to remind everyone once again that Corbin Burnes only pitched 125 total innings this year. He certainly seems ready to be one of the initial out getters, but a traditional, season-long, starting role from day 1 seems out of the question for a team with playoff aspirations. To expect 200+ innings would be foolhardy. And you want that guy come October. Innings will have to be monitored to make that happen.

 

The more I think about this, I think the Brewers will scrap the traditional 5-man right away in 2019. They're not going to want to hold back the young trio (Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff) but they have to be mindful of innings as well. Perhaps they'll be some piggybacking combined with 1-3 traditional starters. I can't wait to see what they unveil for the start of 2019. I'm quite confident it won't be what people have grown accustomed to.

[OldHeidelberg]

Just want to remind everyone once again that Corbin Burnes only pitched 125 total innings this year. He certainly seems ready to be one of the initial out getters, but a traditional, season-long, starting role from day 1 seems out of the question for a team with playoff aspirations. To expect 200+ innings would be foolhardy. And you want that guy come October. Innings will have to be monitored to make that happen.

 

The more I think about this, I think the Brewers will scrap the traditional 5-man right away in 2019. They're not going to want to hold back the young trio (Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff) but they have to be mindful of innings as well. Perhaps they'll be some piggybacking combined with 1-3 traditional starters. I can't wait to see what they unveil for the start of 2019. I'm quite confident it won't be what people have grown accustomed to.

 

I think I asked about this earlier in the thread because I am not sure how this work for young pitchers but isn't it the most innings pitched in any year? Burnes had 145 last season so if that's the number than I think 180 is certianly attainable and at that number I would think they could manage his innings to make sure he can pitch postseason when his starts would likely be shorter anyway.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Just want to remind everyone once again that Corbin Burnes only pitched 125 total innings this year. He certainly seems ready to be one of the initial out getters, but a traditional, season-long, starting role from day 1 seems out of the question for a team with playoff aspirations. To expect 200+ innings would be foolhardy. And you want that guy come October. Innings will have to be monitored to make that happen.

 

The more I think about this, I think the Brewers will scrap the traditional 5-man right away in 2019. They're not going to want to hold back the young trio (Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff) but they have to be mindful of innings as well. Perhaps they'll be some piggybacking combined with 1-3 traditional starters. I can't wait to see what they unveil for the start of 2019. I'm quite confident it won't be what people have grown accustomed to.

 

I think I asked about this earlier in the thread because I am not sure how this work for young pitchers but isn't it the most innings pitched in any year? Burnes had 145 last season so if that's the number than I think 180 is certianly attainable and at that number I would think they could manage his innings to make sure he can pitch postseason when his starts would likely be shorter anyway.

 

You're right about his total innings being higher in 2017. And the risk of extending Burnes in 2019 is lower because of it. The Brewers simply don't need to count on anyone to go 6 innings, 35 times going forward. It will drive everyone nuts for awhile when the best arms, of which Burnes is among, max out at 4-5 innings. Even if that plan isn't fully enacted in 2019, what would be the sense in pushing Burnes to fit a model being phased out?