Building a 2019 super-pen

[clancyphile]

The bullpen this year has been awesome. One of the reasons the Crew is now in the playoffs.

 

Next year, I could see it being even better.

 

Imagine this: Barnes-Knebel-Jeffress for 7-8-9.

Hader, Woodruff, and Peralta as relief aces - able to go 2 dominant innings

Cedeno as the LOOGY

Guerra as the long man/swing.

 

Is it possible to create such a super-pen, and still have a very good rotation?

[fondybrewfan]

Barnes and "Super Pen" should never been in the same sentence.

[StearnBrewliever]

Barnes? No. Woodruff should be in the rotation too. All they need to do ti have q super pen is bring Soria back.

 

Rotation

nelson

Chacin

Burnes

Woodruff

Anderson if not traded otherwise Miley signs

 

Bullpen

Hader

Jeffress

Knebel

Soria

Cedeno

Guerra

Peralta

[liveforoctober]

Im a bit confused. You talk about building a super pen and then you name our current bullpen.

 

How is this bullpen different then today's?

[YelichPosse]

Im a bit confused. You talk about building a super pen and then you name our current bullpen.

 

How is this bullpen different then today's?

 

The question isn't how, it is, that yes they are. We are exactly who we thought we are.

 

We are on to something with a strong pen, and I don't see that changing much next year!

[Oxy]

Unless I've got Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman on my roster, I'd try not to count on the same names being in my Super-pen from year to year.

 

Having a super pen is obviously key, it's just tricky to write in who it might consist of. Even from April to June to August to October there can be many changes.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think there is an extremely good chance that Zach Brown is treated the same way Burnes was this year, and is brought up at some point mid-season next year to serve as a pen piece. Woodruff, Burnes, Brown, Webb ... this team has really hit it out of the park lately on drafted college arms.Hoping that Kirby and Rasmussen are next in line if they can get over the injury woes.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Unless I've got Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman on my roster, I'd try not to count on the same names being in my Super-pen from year to year.

 

Having a super pen is obviously key, it's just tricky to write in who it might consist of. Even from April to June to August to October there can be many changes.

 

Remember when Matt Albers looked unhittable back in April?

[TooLiveBrew]

The challenge for recreating the depth of the 2018 pen is Barnes (& hopefully Woodruff) will be in the rotation.

 

We'll need to find solid mid-game power arms if we want to hope for anything like a repeat of the 2018 pen imo.

[jerichoholicninja]

If Woodruff and Burnes (and possibly but probably not likely, Hader) are moved to the rotation, that really hurts the bullpen. Everyone gets excited about seeing those guys starting while generally ignoring the hit the bullpen takes. I don't know the right answer as to what to do with them.

[MrTPlush]

I am going to go out on a limb and assume our rotation/bullpen is going to be similar to what we trotted out in September that we have already rode to a division championship and is still riding a 9 game winning streak. I definitely could see Burnes moving to the rotation, but I bet Peralta/Woodruff both stay in the pen. I think the Brewers are going to continue to be a trend setter with their pen and starting rotation.

 

Nelson

Chacin

Burnes

Anderson

(someone)

 

Maybe Woodruff sets up in one of those rotation spots, but it might make more sense to have Davies/Miley/some else average-ish there. Have to pen loaded with dynamic multi inning relievers and maybe have your starters go short inning (5 or less) quite often. I mean why not? If you manage it everyone will be fresh all year and we have already proven this setup wins games.

 

Would it work over a long season? Would long stretches without a day off make it hard? I don't know...but end of the season I love it.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The challenge for recreating the depth of the 2018 pen is Barnes (& hopefully Woodruff) will be in the rotation.

 

We'll need to find solid mid-game power arms if we want to hope for anything like a repeat of the 2018 pen imo.

 

I think Jordan Lyles is a darkhorse there. He's a power guy, and pitched very well when called upon by the Brewers, albeit in limited opportunities and non high-leverage spots. Also Adrian Houser seems primed to take a step next year.

[OldHeidelberg]

I think they have already said Burnes will be in the rotation and it also seems like the organization is high on Peralta as a starter going forward as well. Woodruff isn't so clear but it is maybe telling that he was out there yesterday and Chase/Davies were not. There is a lot to shake out with the pitching in the offseason, how this post season pans out will probably affect decisions as well. It sure is nice that the farm is finally churning out some good pitchers though.

[shanedog19]

My prediction for starting rotation beginning 2019:

 

Nelson

Chacin

Burnes

Peralta

Woodruff

 

That is a rotation that has a chance to be special.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

My prediction for starting rotation beginning 2019:

 

Nelson

Chacin

Burnes

Peralta

Woodruff

 

That is a rotation that has a chance to be special.

 

I love that 3 of the 5 are Brewers' draftees, and 4 of 5 were developed by the team.

 

That said, I don't think they'll trade both Davies and Anderson, and it wouldn't surprise me to see them re-sign Miley and/or Gio. Can never have enough starting pitching depth, and as they have shown, a lot of these guys can be very valuable as multi-inning relievers. I've been a big advocate of moving Hader to the starting rotation, too, but with the philosophy this team has, he may be just as valuable in the role he's in.

[MrTPlush]

A team coming of a 96 win divison winning season is not going to be putting some who with injured all year (Nelson) and three newcomers (Peralta, Woodruff, and Burnes) into the rotation. Ignoring possible innings limits on some of those guys its just waaay to risky to do. I would be absolutely in shock if they went that direction. It would absolutely kill our depth because I have to imagine Anderson is definitely traded in that scenario...leaving Davies as the only guy in AAA. I don't believe Guerra has an option...but he may.

 

I just don't see such a move happening in real life. That is the kind of stuff I see on a video game or I see in a BP predicting our rotation 3 years from now. Logistically it never tends to work that way in reality.

[And That]

I think Jordan Lyles is a darkhorse there. He's a power guy, and pitched very well when called upon by the Brewers, albeit in limited opportunities and non high-leverage spots. Also Adrian Houser seems primed to take a step next year.

Yep, Lyles has been good for the most part. Has above-average stuff. I would be surprised if he's not back next year.

 

And Houser is out of options - he'll be part of the Brewers' staff next year unless he's traded or injured.

[TURBO]

in 2019 I'd like to see Woodruff and Burnes in the rotation and let Peralta, take Burnes role from this past season. This way we are keeping Peralta in the mix, and still giving him that valuable MLB experience. 2020 could be the year we see all three in the rotation to start the season.

[Roderick]

A team coming of a 96 win divison winning season is not going to be putting some who with injured all year (Nelson) and three newcomers (Peralta, Woodruff, and Burnes) into the rotation. Ignoring possible innings limits on some of those guys its just waaay to risky to do. I would be absolutely in shock if they went that direction. It would absolutely kill our depth because I have to imagine Anderson is definitely traded in that scenario...leaving Davies as the only guy in AAA. I don't believe Guerra has an option...but he may.

 

I just don't see such a move happening in real life. That is the kind of stuff I see on a video game or I see in a BP predicting our rotation 3 years from now. Logistically it never tends to work that way in reality.

 

Guerra will be in the pen if he isn't starting. I could see Anderson traded and signing a free agent and going with this:

 

Chacin

Free Agent

1 of Nelson/Davies

2 of Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta

 

So as backup plan, you have maybe one of Nelson/Davies and one of Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta. Then you have guys like Guerra and Lyles that have been starters in the pen for insurance. Wilkerson, Derby and Houser as extreme backups. And maybe someone like Z Brown potentially ready at midseason. If there is an issue, I would think we could survive until a July trade for a starter.

 

I don't see trading Davies as you will be selling dirt cheap low.

[OldHeidelberg]

A team coming of a 96 win divison winning season is not going to be putting some who with injured all year (Nelson) and three newcomers (Peralta, Woodruff, and Burnes) into the rotation. Ignoring possible innings limits on some of those guys its just waaay to risky to do. I would be absolutely in shock if they went that direction. It would absolutely kill our depth because I have to imagine Anderson is definitely traded in that scenario...leaving Davies as the only guy in AAA. I don't believe Guerra has an option...but he may.

 

I just don't see such a move happening in real life. That is the kind of stuff I see on a video game or I see in a BP predicting our rotation 3 years from now. Logistically it never tends to work that way in reality.

 

Peralta will get to around 150 innings this year and was already in the rotation for a good stretch. Burnes and Woodruff will only get about 120 but Burnes pitched 145 in 2017 and Woodruff 158 in 2016, does only 120 this year set them too far back in potential innings for next year? I really don't know. At some point you need to go with these guys or package one or 2 of them in a trade for an ace. But I do think they will have to earn it spring training so you have a point on the risk of letting Chase go, most likely only 2 of these guys start in the rotation. I am just not sure that these 3 guys are that big of a risk compared to the guys we threw out there this year, not that they were bad just think we could use some upgrades.

[Oxy]

in 2019 I'd like to see Woodruff and Burnes in the rotation and let Peralta, take Burnes role from this past season. This way we are keeping Peralta in the mix, and still giving him that valuable MLB experience. 2020 could be the year we see all three in the rotation to start the season.

 

This is slightly curious, in that in this 96 win pennant winning year Peralta had success in starting 14 times, while Woodruff started 4 times and Burnes 0 times, even though Peralta is the youngest of the 3.

 

All 3 will be ready for the rotation next year, and it'd difficult for me to put any of them in the pen--unless a couple of them pair up on a piggy back type routine on 3 days rest. The pigpen rotation, if you will.

 

Barring injury, Chacin is obviously a lock to begin the year in the rotation.

 

For the first time in my Brewerfandom there is either going to be a trade or a lot of competition come next March/April due to too much starting pitching depth.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

This is slightly curious, in that in this 96 win pennant winning year Peralta had success in starting 14 times, while Woodruff started 4 times and Burnes 0 times, even though Peralta is the youngest of the 3.

 

All 3 will be ready for the rotation next year, and it'd difficult for me to put any of them in the pen--unless a couple of them pair up on a piggy back type routine on 3 days rest. The pigpen rotation, if you will.

 

Barring injury, Chacin is obviously a lock to begin the year in the rotation.

 

For the first time in my Brewerfandom there is either going to be a trade or a lot of competition come next March/April due to too much starting pitching depth.

 

It's exciting isn't it! You're touching on how the final decisions will be made a little better than most. One thing people are missing is that these guys have to be ready to go through a batting order multiple times. The Brewers used Woodruff and Burnes the way they did yesterday because they know they can successfully go through an order once. All three of Peralta, Burnes, and Woodruff are on the path to being fixtures of the rotation. Being on the path does not equal starting 2019 in the rotation. Woodruff for instance only had his fastball yesterday. Another trip through the Rockies lineup likely would have been ugly.

 

Of the 3, only Peralta has demonstrated the ability to successfully navigate a MLB lineup multiple times through the order. Burnes has yet to be called on to even attempt it. And Woodruff has fared poorly the 2nd time through. Before anyone gets up in arms, that's not to say Burnes and Woodruff can't do it, it just means they're far from locks to be called on to do it out of the gate in 2019. Peralta is also ahead of both in terms of building up innings.

 

Here are the splits for the 3 in their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd tiime through the order...

 

Peralta - 1st (.176 BA, .315 OBP, .294 SLG, .609 OPS)

Peralta - 2nd (.174 BA, .278 OBP, .276 SLG, ..654)

Peralta - 3rd (.191 BA, .255 OBP, .319 SLG, .574 OPS)

 

Burnes - 1st (.200 BA, .273 OBP, .326 SLG, .599 OPS)

Burnes - 2nd - (only 1 batter faced a 2nd time through)

Burnes - 3rd (none)

 

Woodruff - 1st (.206 BA, .265 OBP, .317 SLG, .582 OPS)

Woodruff - 2nd (.323 BA, .405 OBP, .484 SLG, .889 OPS)

Woodruff - 3rd (only 2 batters faced a 3rd time through)

 

Takeaways...

 

- I don't know how anyone could look at those numbers for Peralta and not be excited. Notice also that his walk rate has gotten better the deeper he gets into the game. He doesn't nibble the 2nd and 3rd time through like many who aren't comfortable in their stuff. He attacks more.

 

- Burnes hasn't demonstarted the ability to go through an order multiple times but he hasn't shown that he can't either. Burnes also has shown 2 very strong pitches nearly every time out including yesterday. He's very close. A 3rd pitch that he can throw 10-15% of time gets him over the hump. Again, he's very close.

 

- Woodruff is the furthest from a lock of the 3, imo. He's been given the chance to navigate a lineup a 2nd time through and it hasn't been pretty. He needs to add more to his arsenal or he could stagnate as a very effective reliever.

 

I have high hopes that all 3 can be fixtures of the future rotation. All 3 are displaying dominance at the major league level. All 3 have the ability to give multiple looks to major league hitters. None have taken steps backward and that's probably the most important factor in all this.

 

Prediction for 2019...

 

Peralta in the rotation from day 1.

Burnes in the MLB bullpen from day 1, transitioned into MLB rotation full time during 2019 season

Woodruff begins 2019 in AAA as a starter and makes spot starts in MLB rotation and finishes 2019 in MLB bullpen

[clancyphile]

1. Barnes has some good stuff, and comes a lot cheaper than Soria.

2. The idea of multiple relief aces is to not only protect leads, but to keep a game close. Imagine having the depth to keep another team's lead at one run, as opposed to letting them put on more.

3. I think the current roster can build a pen with multiple relief aces. That was the biggest problem - the Crew only had one Hader. Now, Hader is still unique as a lefty, but Woodruff and Peralta in the pen WITH Hader... now you can put someone good in, and keep a game close so the bats can win it.

[MrTPlush]

Why do we have to trade them for an ace? Why do we need an ace? How about we just stop making our starters pitch the 6th when they aren't doing that well or get them out when they struggle in the 5-6th? Our starters have numbers way better than they are because we have such a good deep bullpen. Do what we are doing now.

 

Why even have an ace who can only pitch 1 out of 5 days...and that day your offense might just drop an egg rendering that ace totally wasted. deGrom had out of this world stats yet his team went 14-18 in his starts.

 

I have always been a fan of creating a super pen...which we essentially trot out there these days. Just make sure we have some solid starters and we will win a ton of games. The super pen can win a championship...it is why people are picking us to get to the WS. Bullpens also tend to be more reliable come October vs. starters.

 

Super pen for life. Destroy opponents in the games you have a chance to win and not waste your best pitchers in games you have low odds of winning.

[OnaBadger58]

No one mentioned Taylor Williams?

 

Unfortunately he fell off a bit in the 2nd half, but he was pretty darn good in the 1st half. I would expect him to play a big role in the middle relief next year.