2018-10-05 (NLDS Game #2): Rockies (Anderson) at Brewers (Chacín) 3:15 PM CDT [Brewers win, 4-0]

[bill hAll Star]

Your best PH is no longer available, and there are 6 innings to play.

 

This is why it was not the best decision.

 

No one on base, 3rd inning, not the time to burn your best PHer.

 

I'm going to guess that if Saladino was on the roster, this is when CC uses him. How does Santana = Saladino in any way?

 

It was a mistake, plain and simple.

 

A runner on 1st base in front of Cain/Yelich/Braun has a very high probability of scoring and it looked as though the game was going to be of the 1-0 variety. The game was tied. Santana is the perceived best OBP guy at this point out of that group.

 

The Rockies' best relievers are all righty so the fact that Santana wasn't there to face Rusin is because we thought we'd likely be facing Ottavino or Davis (use Granderson) later. If Santana had been available, it's possible they bring in a righty for him instead of letting the lefty face Broxton. He's still a better option but I think we assumed that you could use Granderson vs. a righty in a late game situation.

 

If there were 2 outs and he used Santana I may have an issue with it.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I don't want to come across as second-guessing everything. Not at all. I think CC was brilliant, both yesterday and in Game 163. You get no complaints from me about how all this is setting up.

 

I even think Perez today makes sense, though I hope he isn't in there for 4 ABs. My point is just that there calls that make sense that still have downsides. That's the nature of a strategic sport like baseball. I think Santana was one of those yesterday, and I'm wondering if CC thinks so too and part of the Perez reasoning is just that it allows a guy who has hit well lately (Arcia) to PH while opening up double-switch possibilities that improve your defense and maybe save you a bench player the first or second time through the order.

[sveumrules]

I don't think there is a wrong answer there between Granderson and Santana.

 

Exactly. The difference between the two is so marginal that the only thing wrong is pretending to know which one was the "right" option.

[bill hAll Star]

I don't want to come across as second-guessing everything. Not at all. I think CC was brilliant, both yesterday and in Game 163. You get no complaints from me about how all this is setting up.

 

I even think Perez today makes sense, though I hope he isn't in there for 4 ABs. My point is just that there calls that make sense that still have downsides. That's the nature of a strategic sport like baseball. I think Santana was one of those yesterday, and I'm wondering if CC thinks so too and part of the Perez reasoning is just that it allows a guy who has hit well lately (Arcia) to PH while opening up double-switch possibilities that improve your defense and maybe save you a bench player the first or second time through the order.

 

You can't really think like that, though.

 

If Aaron Rodgers throws a perfect bullet to a wide open, usually reliable receiver who then tips it into the hands of a defender, he cannot say, "was that the wrong decision?" You do it again next time. Same goes for decisions closer to 50/50. Keep making the best decision for the situation at hand. Trust your process and the results will come (they clearly did over the first 163 games).

 

Today, the exact same situation could present itself (say a righty is on the mound in the 3rd for COL to make this example better) and it could break that Granderson was needed late in the game and that using Santana first worked out.

[StearnsFTW]

I’m feeling great about our chances to get to the WS. Not just the obvious being up 1-0.

 

Past teams would have collapsed in the top of the ninth but not this team. We held it together after playing a very sloppy game and got the clutch hit. Good luck using analytics to explain that.

 

A really good pitcher started pitching good instead of pitching bad. Is that analytics? I say yes.

Your hatred/fear is funny.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I don't want to come across as second-guessing everything. Not at all. I think CC was brilliant, both yesterday and in Game 163. You get no complaints from me about how all this is setting up.

 

I even think Perez today makes sense, though I hope he isn't in there for 4 ABs. My point is just that there calls that make sense that still have downsides. That's the nature of a strategic sport like baseball. I think Santana was one of those yesterday, and I'm wondering if CC thinks so too and part of the Perez reasoning is just that it allows a guy who has hit well lately (Arcia) to PH while opening up double-switch possibilities that improve your defense and maybe save you a bench player the first or second time through the order.

 

You can't really think like that, though.

 

If Aaron Rodgers throws a perfect bullet to a wide open, usually reliable receiver who then tips it into the hands of a defender, he cannot say, "was that the wrong decision?" You do it again next time. Same goes for decisions closer to 50/50. Keep making the best decision for the situation at hand. Trust your process and the results will come (they clearly did over the first 163 games).

 

Today, the exact same situation could present itself (say a righty is on the mound in the 3rd for COL to make this example better) and it could break that Granderson was needed late in the game and that using Santana first worked out.

 

While I understand the point, I think the analogy doesn't really hold. A receiver dropping the ball is a contingency that should never into the calculus. Using a very good PH early and not having him in a higher-leverage situation should always be considered. It's an inherent drawback. And I like the idea of letting process evolve to a point. You shouldn't radically recalibrate, but, just like a hitter adjusting to a different pitching approach, a good manager to me is looking at ways to fine tune strategy.

 

Maybe that's not what's going on. I don't really think it's that big of a deal. But, as much as I love Keon, I love him for his defense and speed, and I want to avoid a situation where he has a bat in his hands high-leverage (especially when you couldn't even use his D because then you'd have to remove Braun).

[sveumrules]

Analytics say, "Trade for Mike Moustakas even though you already have a third baseman. Your current third baseman will be fine at second even though he is a large man that has not played there previously."

 

Good luck explaining that to some fans, though.

[bill hAll Star]

I don't want to come across as second-guessing everything. Not at all. I think CC was brilliant, both yesterday and in Game 163. You get no complaints from me about how all this is setting up.

 

I even think Perez today makes sense, though I hope he isn't in there for 4 ABs. My point is just that there calls that make sense that still have downsides. That's the nature of a strategic sport like baseball. I think Santana was one of those yesterday, and I'm wondering if CC thinks so too and part of the Perez reasoning is just that it allows a guy who has hit well lately (Arcia) to PH while opening up double-switch possibilities that improve your defense and maybe save you a bench player the first or second time through the order.

 

You can't really think like that, though.

 

If Aaron Rodgers throws a perfect bullet to a wide open, usually reliable receiver who then tips it into the hands of a defender, he cannot say, "was that the wrong decision?" You do it again next time. Same goes for decisions closer to 50/50. Keep making the best decision for the situation at hand. Trust your process and the results will come (they clearly did over the first 163 games).

 

Today, the exact same situation could present itself (say a righty is on the mound in the 3rd for COL to make this example better) and it could break that Granderson was needed late in the game and that using Santana first worked out.

 

While I understand the point, I think the analogy doesn't really hold. A receiver dropping the ball is a contingency that should never into the calculus. Using a very good PH early and not having him in a higher-leverage situation should always be considered. It's an inherent drawback. And I like the idea of letting process evolve to a point. You shouldn't radically recalibrate, but, just like a hitter adjusting to a different pitching approach, a good manager to me is looking at ways to fine tune strategy.

 

Maybe that's not what's going on. I don't really think it's that big of a deal. But, as much as I love Keon, I love him for his defense and speed, and I want to avoid a situation where he has a bat in his hands high-leverage (especially when you couldn't even use his D because then you'd have to remove Braun).

 

But say Counsell or Stearns or whomever is involved in this calculus decides that using Santana there is the better choice 53% of the time and using Granderson is better 47% of the time. No need to recalibrate...go with the 53% decision every time even if it failed the previous time.

 

It could've been a completely gut feel decision that did not improve their odds and no odds were considered, I don't know. In which case, sure, he could think about it. I just think while I'm over-analyzing the heck out of defending "trust the process" in the above posts and paragraph, there's also a lot of, "see, this doomsday later game scenario kinda happened" when not factoring in what had to happen to get there and the merits of the original decision.

[NievesNoNO]

Everything is 50/50 isn't it? Either it happens or doesn't.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Yeah, I can understand that. And, you're right, lots of things had to go a certain way to get Keon up to the plate in a crucial moment (and maybe they were even trying to deke the Rox into bringing in a righty so they could sub Grandy).

 

That's why I don't think it's egregious, and I won't be upset if they do it again today. Mostly just thinking through possibilities here, and it's one of those situations where I think both arguments make sense.

[TURBO]

Hernan Perez is starting at shortstop and batting sixth for the Brewers in Friday's NLDS Game 2 against the Rockies.

 

Manager Craig Counsell is going for more offense with Perez over Orlando Arcia. Both Mike Moustakas and Travis Shaw are in the lineup even with the Rockies throwing lefty Tyler Anderson, as Jonathan Schoop is on the bench again. The Brewers' full lineup is as follows: Lorenzo Cain CF, Christian Yelich RF, Ryan Braun LF, Jesus Aguilar 1B, Moustakas 3B, Perez SS, Shaw 2B, Erik Kratz C, Jhoulys Chacin P.

 

Source: Rotoworld Daily LineupsOct 5 - 12:54 PM

 

 

Perez is more offense over Arcia? Arcia has been great lately, and Perez has not!!!

[YelichPosse]

Hernan Perez is starting at shortstop and batting sixth for the Brewers in Friday's NLDS Game 2 against the Rockies.

 

Manager Craig Counsell is going for more offense with Perez over Orlando Arcia. Both Mike Moustakas and Travis Shaw are in the lineup even with the Rockies throwing lefty Tyler Anderson, as Jonathan Schoop is on the bench again. The Brewers' full lineup is as follows: Lorenzo Cain CF, Christian Yelich RF, Ryan Braun LF, Jesus Aguilar 1B, Moustakas 3B, Perez SS, Shaw 2B, Erik Kratz C, Jhoulys Chacin P.

 

Source: Rotoworld Daily LineupsOct 5 - 12:54 PM

 

 

Perez is more offense over Arcia? Arcia has been great lately, and Perez has not!!!

 

The price is WRONG Craig! lol.

He got the reverse splits for Anderson correct with Moose and Shaw but must have forgotten that with Perez instead of Arcia. Hmm. Again - PROVE ME WRONG CC!

[Patrick425]

Why would Kyle Freeland not be starting Game 3? Are we abducting him when we go to Colorado?

 

 

Not understanding that either, but as of today Marquez is listed as the scheduled starter on Sunday. Ok?

[Ennder]

 

Mistakes with the bench started with Santana leading off the 3rd. That should have been Granderson, leaving Santana available in the spot Broxton was.

 

 

 

I disagree. Santana has no use on the team other than pinch hitting. Much better idea to have the versatility on the bench later in the game. Broxton hits lefties about the same as Santana and Granderson is a better option vs righties. I'd expect them to use Santana early all series.

[Ennder]

Perez is a slightly above average hitter vs lefties, not really sure it is worth second guessing him here. If it were a righty I totally get it.

 

I mean I guess Arcia is hot and it is nice to play the hot guy, that seems to be the only reason to complain about this.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I disagree. Santana has no use on the team other than pinch hitting. Much better idea to have the versatility on the bench later in the game. Broxton hits lefties about the same as Santana and Granderson is a better option vs righties. I'd expect them to use Santana early all series.

 

Well deducted. I'd say you've got yourself a bullseye.

[OnaBadger58]

Everything is 50/50 isn't it? Either it happens or doesn't.

 

No. That why stats are available to help decide what is more likely/less likely to happen.

[liveforoctober]

 

Mistakes with the bench started with Santana leading off the 3rd. That should have been Granderson, leaving Santana available in the spot Broxton was.

 

 

 

 

You can't just insert Santana into Broxton's at bat because it helps your argument. It would have been Schoop hitting for Broxton. Santana would have hit in the 5th for Burnes instead of Schoop.

[Bulldogboy]

Pina sitting after gunning out two runners is madness. Arcia also. Perez has provided zero in September. You cannot make a spare part into a main part. Craig continues to make this mistake.

[sveumrules]

Manager Craig Counsell is going for more offense with Perez over Orlando Arcia.

 

Perez is more offense over Arcia? Arcia has been great lately, and Perez has not!!!

 

Perez (103 wRC+) has been far superior to Arcia (62 wRC+) over the last two seasons against lefties.

[sveumrules]

Pina sitting after gunning out two runners is madness. Arcia also. Perez has provided zero in September. You cannot make a spare part into a main part. Craig continues to make this mistake.

 

Kratz has caught 20 of Chacin's last 21 starts & 21 of 24 overall since he joined the team.

 

Jhoulys has an ERA of 3.23 with Kratz behind the dish in those 21 games against a 4.39 mark in 12 games with Manny.

[Ennder]

Pina sitting after gunning out two runners is madness. Arcia also. Perez has provided zero in September. You cannot make a spare part into a main part. Craig continues to make this mistake.

 

Kratz has caught 20 of Chacin's last 21 starts & 21 of 24 overall since he joined the team.

 

Jhoulys has an ERA of 3.23 with Kratz behind the dish in those 21 games against a 4.39 mark in 12 games with Manny.

 

Additionally Pina got pretty beat up in the game last night. I could see him feeling it today.

[istanbultaye]

I think the argument definitely could have been made for Granderson early, Santana late, and not sure I really want Broxton PHing until there's no one else left. That said, none of them got hits, so who's to say it would have mattered.

[dlk9s]

I want to know why the players are wearing those white-paneled hats in the FS1 promo. Also, I don't like how Fox/FS1's baseball music is the same as their football music.

[owbc]

A-Rod: "Must win for the Brewers today."

 

LOL.