2018-10-04 (NLDS Game #1): Rockies (Senzatela) at Brewers (Woodruff/Bullpen) 4:07 PM CDT [Brewers win, 3-2 in 10 Innings -- Blown Save in 9th; Moustakas Walk-Off Hit in 10th]

[Oxy]

I think the Brewers are being too cute by half in calling this a bullpen game, rather than having one of their regular (Miley or Gonzalez) starters go 3-4 innings. I get that the Rockies hit lefties well, but have some confidence in the guys that got you to the playoffs.

 

 

In Counsell We Trust, but the best recipe for today is to put up some early offense.

 

A lot of it is to take the pressure off the opening outgetter. He isn't supposed to be thinking about pitching 7 strong innings, he's supposed to be thinking how to pitch to the guy in the batter's box to get him out, or how to get through the inning he is in without giving up any runs, anyway.

[JosephC]

It's a very small sample size (26 at-bats), but Rockies hitters have butchered Woodruff (.407/.469/.630/1.098 slash line against).

 

I figured Counsell to go heavy with right handed pitchers against the Rockies. Rockies slash .272/.336/.462/.799 off of lefties this season but only .248/.315/.422/.738 off of righties. That's a pretty significant difference.

 

In addition, Gonzalez (.818 OPS against) and Miley (.797 OPS against) have been mediocre against Colorado hitters. Davies is one righty that has been awful (.861 OPS against). On the other hand, Chacin (.735 OPS against), Anderson (.696 OPS against) and Guerra (.680 against) have all been solid or better against Colorado. Note this in this paragraph the OPS against are career numbers, not just this season.

 

And then there is Freddy Peralta who had that electrifying debut against the Rockies. Note that wasn't his only start against Colorado. He has another start against them in early August where he only allowed 2 runs in 6 innings with 8 strikeouts. In those two starts, Colorado hitters totaled 36 at-bats against Freddy and hit a pitiful .083/.175/.167/.342 against him.

 

I would have rather seen them go with Peralta and see if lightning strikes for a third time.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

I think the Brewers are being too cute by half in calling this a bullpen game, rather than having one of their regular (Miley or Gonzalez) starters go 3-4 innings. I get that the Rockies hit lefties well, but have some confidence in the guys that got you to the playoffs.

 

 

In Counsell We Trust, but the best recipe for today is to put up some early offense.

 

I'd argue that Hader, Jeffress, Soria, Burnes, Knebel, Woodruff, etc. got the Brewers to the playoffs with some help from Miley, Chacin, Gio.

 

Without a doubt this!

[KeithStone53151]

I think the Brewers are being too cute by half in calling this a bullpen game, rather than having one of their regular (Miley or Gonzalez) starters go 3-4 innings. I get that the Rockies hit lefties well, but have some confidence in the guys that got you to the playoffs.

 

 

In Counsell We Trust, but the best recipe for today is to put up some early offense.

 

I'd argue that Hader, Jeffress, Soria, Burnes, Knebel, Woodruff, etc. got the Brewers to the playoffs with some help from Miley, Chacin, Gio.

 

I'd further argue, how much did Gio really help us get to the playoffs? Miley...sure. Gio, minimal help. He made 5 starts, 3 good ones against crap teams and 2 mediocre at best ones against decent teams. I however would make the same argument for woodruff from that grouping...except he's clearly been far better than Gio over the the same time period.

[bill hAll Star]

I think the Brewers are being too cute by half in calling this a bullpen game, rather than having one of their regular (Miley or Gonzalez) starters go 3-4 innings. I get that the Rockies hit lefties well, but have some confidence in the guys that got you to the playoffs.

 

 

In Counsell We Trust, but the best recipe for today is to put up some early offense.

 

I'd argue that Hader, Jeffress, Soria, Burnes, Knebel, Woodruff, etc. got the Brewers to the playoffs with some help from Miley, Chacin, Gio.

 

I'd further argue, how much did Gio really help us get to the playoffs? Miley...sure. Gio, minimal help. He made 5 starts, 3 good ones against crap teams and 2 mediocre at best ones against decent teams. I however would make the same argument for woodruff from that grouping...except he's clearly been far better than Gio over the the same time period.

 

Sure...but my general point was that the team made the playoffs because the bullpen would shut the team out for the final 4 innings and the starters did "OK" for 5 innings. Doesn't really matter which names.

 

Now in the playoffs you can get even more aggressive using the bullpen. Do it.

[bill hAll Star]

It's a very small sample size (26 at-bats), but Rockies hitters have butchered Woodruff (.407/.469/.630/1.098 slash line against).

 

I figured Counsell to go heavy with right handed pitchers against the Rockies. Rockies slash .272/.336/.462/.799 off of lefties this season but only .248/.315/.422/.738 off of righties. That's a pretty significant difference.

 

In addition, Gonzalez (.818 OPS against) and Miley (.797 OPS against) have been mediocre against Colorado hitters. Davies is one righty that has been awful (.861 OPS against). On the other hand, Chacin (.735 OPS against), Anderson (.696 OPS against) and Guerra (.680 against) have all been solid or better against Colorado. Note this in this paragraph the OPS against are career numbers, not just this season.

 

And then there is Freddy Peralta who had that electrifying debut against the Rockies. Note that wasn't his only start against Colorado. He has another start against them in early August where he only allowed 2 runs in 6 innings with 8 strikeouts. In those two starts, Colorado hitters totaled 36 at-bats against Freddy and hit a pitiful .083/.175/.167/.342 against him.

 

I would have rather seen them go with Peralta and see if lightning strikes for a third time.

 

There are some baseball-ish things to lean back on with the Woodruff part.

 

Peralta may get a long run in the middle of the game anyways for either game 1 or game 2.

 

Woodruff got lit up at Coors which a lot of people do. Peralta, yes, dominated there, but he's a deceptive pitcher throwing his first pitches in the majors in that Colorado start and I think the Rockies were baffled. Not sure they will be the 3rd time.

 

I think Peralta may play a more important role anyways. He may have to fill innings 4-6 in game 1 or game 2 so he'll have his say, potentially.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It's a very small sample size (26 at-bats), but Rockies hitters have butchered Woodruff (.407/.469/.630/1.098 slash line against).

 

I figured Counsell to go heavy with right handed pitchers against the Rockies. Rockies slash .272/.336/.462/.799 off of lefties this season but only .248/.315/.422/.738 off of righties. That's a pretty significant difference.

 

In addition, Gonzalez (.818 OPS against) and Miley (.797 OPS against) have been mediocre against Colorado hitters. Davies is one righty that has been awful (.861 OPS against). On the other hand, Chacin (.735 OPS against), Anderson (.696 OPS against) and Guerra (.680 against) have all been solid or better against Colorado. Note this in this paragraph the OPS against are career numbers, not just this season.

 

And then there is Freddy Peralta who had that electrifying debut against the Rockies. Note that wasn't his only start against Colorado. He has another start against them in early August where he only allowed 2 runs in 6 innings with 8 strikeouts. In those two starts, Colorado hitters totaled 36 at-bats against Freddy and hit a pitiful .083/.175/.167/.342 against him.

 

I would have rather seen them go with Peralta and see if lightning strikes for a third time.

 

There are some baseball-ish things to lean back on with the Woodruff part.

 

Peralta may get a long run in the middle of the game anyways for either game 1 or game 2.

 

Woodruff got lit up at Coors which a lot of people do. Peralta, yes, dominated there, but he's a deceptive pitcher throwing his first pitches in the majors in that Colorado start and I think the Rockies were baffled. Not sure they will be the 3rd time.

 

I think Peralta may play a more important role anyways. He may have to fill innings 4-6 in game 1 or game 2 so he'll have his say, potentially.

 

I think Freddy gets the start Sunday in Colorado. Call it an educated hunch

[Brewcrewin07]

I don't like this at all..I hope Counsell knows what he's doing here..this whole "bullpen" thing could totally blow up in his face..Why burn through arms the very first game?? It's likely you will need them game 2 as well. What if it's 1-0 through 5 and you then turn it over to Knebel, Soria, Hader, Jeffress?? That's fine if you win the game, but then how many of those guys can come back for game 2?? Hader for sure can't. Just throw Miley..He hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in a start this season..how can you NOT have confidence in him?? Seems to me that with this "strategy" neither Gio nor Miley will get a start in this series now.

 

This seems to me like CC is managing this almost expecting this series to go 5. Now this COULD work out great if the Crew scores a bunch of runs early(and maybe that's what he is banking on), but that is a very risky proposition if you ask me.

[bill hAll Star]

I don't like this at all..I hope Counsell knows what he's doing here..this whole "bullpen" thing could totally blow up in his face..Why burn through arms the very first game?? It's likely you will need them game 2 as well. What if it's 1-0 through 5 and you then turn it over to Knebel, Soria, Hader, Jeffress?? That's fine if you win the game, but then how many of those guys can come back for game 2?? Hader for sure can't. Just throw Miley..He hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in a start this season..how can you NOT have confidence in him?? Seems to me that with this "strategy" neither Gio nor Miley will get a start in this series now.

 

This seems to me like CC is managing this almost expecting this series to go 5. Now this COULD work out great if the Crew scores a bunch of runs early(and maybe that's what he is banking on), but that is a very risky proposition if you ask me.

 

Look, the Brewers did unconventional but statistically edgy (smart) things all year and here we are, a 95 win team (or I guess 96).

 

Just trust Stearns/Counsell.

 

To answer your question, they can play it situationally. Miley, Gio, etc. can still get 4-5 innings in the middle of the game. If the Brewers are up 8-1 they can or if we have to burn some guys early then you have to put Gio/Miley in and pray...but you've thrown your best darts first in that scenario.

 

Think of it this way: I think most would agree that 5 innings of Miley is inferior to 5 innings of Hader/Woodruff/Soria/etc. properly matched-up. So why not get those 5 innings out of the way early so you know you've pitched them? Then you can decide to throw the bottom of your bullpen for the end of the game or go to Miley in the middle or end of the game.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

The off days in these types of series are huge! You can go back to back games with guys knowing full well they will not need to go three straight. The one to watch for me is hader. He usually never pitches back to back...so they may have him go 3 knowing he’d be off game 2 then rest day. Full go game 3. Fun times folks!!!!

[bucks2281]

Ticket prices are still falling. Hope we don’t see a bunch of open seats.

[Oxy]

Pretty sure everybody can go back-to-back days if they throw less than 30 pitches. Even Hader (although he might not be able to go back to back 30 pitch outings...he should be good for a key loogy situation though). This is the playoffs and they have a day off on Saturday. If the game is close, play to win the game.

[bjkrautk]

 

I'd argue that Hader, Jeffress, Soria, Burnes, Knebel, Woodruff, etc. got the Brewers to the playoffs with some help from Miley, Chacin, Gio.

 

The Big 3 (Hader, Jeffress, Knebel) pitched almost exclusively in games where the Brewers were tied or ahead. That was the formula. While the bullpen is the strength of the pitching staff, the formula worked because the starting pitchers could get through the batting order twice while keeping the game close. I don't see the value in deviating from the formula, much less doing so by putting up the one pitcher who had a bad start against the Rockies (3 IP, 7 ER) in Woodruff over a trio of guys who pitched reasonably well against the Rockies (Miley, Gio, and Peralta)...just because the guy with a poor outcome throws with his right hand.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yeah, I love the concept of pitchers as out getters. We don't have starters that only start, we dont have a Closer™ who can only pitch with a 3-run or less lead in the 9th.

 

We have pitchers. To go get outs. Thank you to the baseball gods on high for finally giving us a manager that isn't beholden to The Book!!

[YelichPosse]

I hope they wear the throwback unis for sure today and tomorrow. They've played the best in them....

[KeithStone53151]

Ticket prices are still falling. Hope we don’t see a bunch of open seats.

 

I'm a bit concerned too. It's a game time thing, I had to unload my 4 tickets solely due to game time. If it was at 7, I easily could have attended and found 3 other people wanting to go. I can't imagine there will be too many empty seats. And Friday will for sure sell out, much easier to take a half day on a Friday than Thursday.

[JosephC]

In another thread Greenleaf1 made the excellent point of saving Peralta for a Colorado road game considering his fastball-heavy approach. Very sound logic. But I'd still go with Peralta in game one because of one reason. Kyle Freeland. The Brewers probably see him in game three, so before that I'd try to do everything possible to get the first two games in the bag. He's the one NL pitcher I have most concerns about. The Brewers did alright against guys like Kershaw and Foltynewicz this year. I'd go with whatever seems to be the best options in games one and two and do everything to try and post wins in both of those games. There are many numbers that demonstrate that maybe this guy isn't as good as I think he is. 4.22 xFIP, 2.5 K/BB ratio...lots of really average peripherals. But this guy has a nice cutter/change-up combo and doesn't have to rely on his fastball to win games. I just see him as being a real tough matchup for Brewer hitters. And Freeland delivered in a big way when he had to step up and deliver against the Cubs. Who knows, maybe the Brewers get him in game three and bash him around a bit. Anything can happen on any given day. But I'd be focused on making all the moves now to try and win these first two home games and not have to worry about game three that much.

[bill hAll Star]

 

I'd argue that Hader, Jeffress, Soria, Burnes, Knebel, Woodruff, etc. got the Brewers to the playoffs with some help from Miley, Chacin, Gio.

 

The Big 3 (Hader, Jeffress, Knebel) pitched almost exclusively in games where the Brewers were tied or ahead. That was the formula. While the bullpen is the strength of the pitching staff, the formula worked because the starting pitchers could get through the batting order twice while keeping the game close. I don't see the value in deviating from the formula, much less doing so by putting up the one pitcher who had a bad start against the Rockies (3 IP, 7 ER) in Woodruff over a trio of guys who pitched reasonably well against the Rockies (Miley, Gio, and Peralta)...just because the guy with a poor outcome throws with his right hand.

 

Woodruff has been much better lately but Hader/Jeffress/Knebel will likely be used in ties and maybe even 1 run deficits now. It's the playoffs.

 

You have somewhere between 27 and 45 innings to win this thing (barring extra innings). Get your best guys out there. The formula of Miley/Chacin/Peralta/Gio doing "pretty well" over 5 innings is a good regular season formula. That meant we got 70 games where we could win 65 of them by putting down the hammer with the big 3. But now we get to just use our loaded bullpen and still maybe get Miley and Gio in there for a stretch in the middle of the game and play situationally while making sure we get our best guys in there in the limited innings.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Ticket prices are still falling. Hope we don’t see a bunch of open seats.

 

I'm a bit concerned too. It's a game time thing, I had to unload my 4 tickets solely due to game time. If it was at 7, I easily could have attended and found 3 other people wanting to go. I can't imagine there will be too many empty seats. And Friday will for sure sell out, much easier to take a half day on a Friday than Thursday.

 

I'm thinking a lot of Cub fan bought up tickets thinking they would be in this series. All of those fans are trying to unload them now. Watching those prices drop is just adding insult to their injury.

[SRB]

Why "bullpenning" makes sense:

 

Woodruff career splits

 

1st time through order as SP: 3.33 ERA

2nd time through order as SP: 7.32 ERA

3rd time through order as SP: 6.17 ERA

 

1st time through order as RP: 2.16 ERA

[Baldkin]

As should surprise no one with a game time temperature of about 55 degrees the roof will be closed tonight.

[josh]

*Much* nicer prices on Stubhub this morning. :D

[TURBO]

Ticket prices are still falling. Hope we don’t see a bunch of open seats.

 

I'm a bit concerned too. It's a game time thing, I had to unload my 4 tickets solely due to game time. If it was at 7, I easily could have attended and found 3 other people wanting to go. I can't imagine there will be too many empty seats. And Friday will for sure sell out, much easier to take a half day on a Friday than Thursday.

 

I'm thinking a lot of Cub fan bought up tickets thinking they would be in this series. All of those fans are trying to unload them now. Watching those prices drop is just adding insult to their injury.

 

I actually take joy in this.

 

Does that make me a bad guy?

[KeithStone53151]

I'm thinking a lot of Cub fan bought up tickets thinking they would be in this series. All of those fans are trying to unload them now. Watching those prices drop is just adding insult to their injury.

 

I actually take joy in this.

 

Does that make me a bad guy?

 

Normally yes, but not when it comes to cubs fans.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Can you imagine how this board would have reacted at the All Star break if someone said that Brandon Woodruff would be starting Game 1 of the NLDS for the Brewers?