Rockies Series - Keys / Observations

[fondybrewfan]

1. Watching the game last night I don't think their offense will be able to put up any crooked numbers against our bullpen.

2. Also on the offense it seems like the team is a little top heavy, the bottom of the lineup isn't very good and the bench is average at best

3. I am glad we probably would only have to face Freeland once (Or maybe twice if he came back in Game 5 out of the bullpen)

4. What are their home/road splits. Are they what we come to expect from them?

5. I think their bullpen is good but based on pure stuff I like Hader, Jeffress, and Knebel more. Hopefully we don't have to worry about Davis.

6. I can't find anyone I irrationally hate on the Rockies, if anyone has any ideas I would appreciate it

 

Overall I like the Brewers chances. They need to take care of business game #1 when we should have a favorable pitching matchup and hopefully win at least 1 of Games 2 & 3 against their top of the rotation.

 

Other than the obvious suspects I am going to go with Shaw and Kratz as providing big performances at some point in the series.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

4. Their home/road splits are terrible. Take Arenado for example, his BA drops 100 points and his OPS goes from 1100+ to the 700s. Story drops from above 1000 to the 700s. He's hit 26 of 37 home runs at home.

 

We have to win the games at home. If we drop either of the first two it could be a bit of trouble.

[jerichoholicninja]

.852 OPS at home

.665 OPS on road

 

For comparison, the Brewers are almost 100 points higher overall than the Rockies road OPS.

 

4.63 ERA at home

4.03 ERA on road

 

Brewers are 3.73 overall, and surprising much lower ERA at home.

 

On paper, the Rockies are the team I wanted to face either in the Wild Card game or NLDS. However, they are the quintessential get hot at the right time team, which scares me. Then again, so are we.

[liveforoctober]

Missing Freeland possibly/probably gives us another game against a RHP and I like our lineup better against a righty so I'm happy about that.

 

I have messed with pitching matchups about 15 times since last night and THINK the right answer is to throw Miley in G1, Gio G2, then Chacin in G3, Peralta G4. My only additional thought, are we nervous about Peralta throwing on the road in the playoffs? Gio has been there before. Do we throw Peralta in G2 and save Gio on the road in G4?

 

However the Rockies hit LHP really well so the thought of them getting hot at Miller Park against a couple of soft tossers gives me a little pause. Giving them any momentum going back to Colorado is not ideal. I would love to throw Chacin at home in G2, but it just makes too much sense for him to throw in Colorado on regular rest where he has pitched so much before.

 

Woodruff/Burnes are the piggybacks in the first two games I think. First signs of trouble gets them into the game.

 

So excited/nervous. I think a HUGE key to this series is the combination of Burnes/Woodruff/Knebel/Peralta being called on to face the gauntlet of DJ/Story/Arenado, etc in the middle innings. If we can navigate that part of the order with our hard throwing righties .. I love our chances.

[YelichPosse]

They are the traditional home/road split hard.....

 

I'm not scared at Miller Park - but we do need to take care of business on the home turf. I'd love to get the first 2!

 

Our guys have the stuff, and if i recall correctly we have hit their bullpen this year.

 

You can dislike Blackmon because of the weedy bush he calls a beard....

 

I like our chances in the series.

 

Peralta will be the unsung hero surprise starting game 2 with a GEM, and helping close out game 4 in extra innings shutting them down in the 10th til the offense comes through in the 11th. I like Brewers in 4 (i said 5 earlier but the more i think about it - i'm thinking 4 games will do it)

[Patrick425]

Brewers have a 5-2 season record against the Rockies with Peralta getting 2 of the wins. Both teams have similar road records. Brewers have a better home record, but both are good at home. The additional wins that the Brewers have at home is just about equal to the extra total wins they have.

 

Someone to dislike on the Rockies? Holliday maybe? I still remember that very cheap HR he hit down the right field line in the 2011 NLCS against us when he was with St. Louis (although, I believe we still won that game). I'm sure as the series develops, Brewer fans will find Rockies players that they can dislike.

[bill hAll Star]

The Rockies lineup is definitely their weak point. Finally getting Dahl involved is huge for them as an extra good bat but we saw last night the terrible depth they have.

 

Parra is alright for hitting a single but I thought the Cubs had it won by the time it hit extra innings...the Cubs' entire remaining lineup was dangerous hitters + Gore who was dangerous in that situation. The Rockies kept calling on guys that hit .190 away from Coors to try do drive in key runs. Thankfully Wolters sat on a changeup and did.

 

I'd give it this:

 

Starting rotation: Rockies by a lot but it becomes much closer with the starters they've burned

Bullpen: Brewers by a bit. Rockies' bullpen is not consistent after the top 3 guys but it's decent

Starting lineup: Brewers by a bit.

Bench bats: Brewers by a lot.

Defense: Even. Rockies infield is better, Brewers outfield is better.

[Greenleaf1]

Any chance the Rockies bring Marquez back on 3 days rest to pitch Friday? That way he could pitch game 5 on regular rest.

 

Curious if the Brewers are contemplating doing the same thing with Chacin.

 

Whoever wins game 1 could certainly play a factor in this decision.

[pacopete4]

My observation is that a lot of people love our team facing a lefty because they feel more comfortable but our stats are almost identical against left handed pitching (I think they are actually better). The platoon is working (so far) and I love that we have that depth to pull it off.

[Greenleaf1]

I also think Friday/Monday will be mostly bullpen games no matter who pitches them given that they will have off days after each of them.

 

Feeling very good about our chances. The bullpen has been lights out (Woodruff/Burnes are going to be the secret weapons to get us through middle innings), and I really like our offense, both starting lineups and power bats off the bench.

 

Does anybody know if the Brewers have really struggled against any of the Rockies' pitchers (starters or bullpen)?

[liveforoctober]

I also think Friday/Monday will be mostly bullpen games no matter who pitches them given that they will have off days after each of them.

 

Feeling very good about our chances. The bullpen has been lights out (Woodruff/Burnes are going to be the secret weapons to get us through middle innings), and I really like our offense, both starting lineups and power bats off the bench.

 

Does anybody know if the Brewers have really struggled against any of the Rockies' pitchers (starters or bullpen)?

 

These are 2018 stats...

 

Gray: http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/stats/sortable_batter_vs_pitcher.jsp?c_id=col#season=2018&batting_team=158&batter=&pitching_team=115&pitcher=592351

 

Anderson: http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/stats/sortable_batter_vs_pitcher.jsp?c_id=col#season=2018&batting_team=158&batter=&pitching_team=115&pitcher=542881

 

Freeland: http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/stats/sortable_batter_vs_pitcher.jsp?c_id=col#season=2018&batting_team=158&batter=&pitching_team=115&pitcher=607536

 

Senzatela: http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/stats/sortable_batter_vs_pitcher.jsp?c_id=col#season=2018&batting_team=158&batter=&pitching_team=115&pitcher=622608

 

Marquez: http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/stats/sortable_batter_vs_pitcher.jsp?c_id=col#season=2018&batting_team=158&batter=&pitching_team=115&pitcher=608566

[owbc]

The weather at Coors could be an x-factor. Sunday doesn't look too bad, slight chance of rain, but it looks like a storm comes in Monday with a higher chance of rain and possibly snow in the overnight hours. I wouldn't rule out a cancellation on Monday although it's too early to say how likely that is. I think the Brewers have the advantage if the weather is not favorable for hitting home runs.

[long ball]

Any team in the playoffs can be dangerous. Rockies are playing pretty well, but some of that was against teams just playing out the string like the Nats and Phillies. I think the Brewers have the advantage.

 

My observations:

 

1) I agree the Rockies line up is pretty top heavy. Hopefully the Brewers can neutralize Story/Arenado late in games with their strong RH options out of the pen and Dahl/Blackmon/Cargo with the lefties in the pen.

2) Brewers have had a lot of recent success vs Wade Davis. Let's hope that continues.

3) Ottavino is nasty. This is where Granderson and Shaw/Moustakas off the bench could be huge. All can take a walk and hit righties well.

4) I'm also interested to see if they bring back Marquez on short rest for game two.

5) The rockies OF defense is poor. That could play to the Brewers advantage in a huge Coors outfield. That huge Coors outfield may be a reason to carry Broxton as a defensive sub.

6) Facing Freeland once in game 3 and likely out of the pen in game 5 is a win for the Brewers.

 

I think the Brewers have a good chance to win games 1 and 2. If they do that I think they win in 4 games. If they split the initial 2 at MP I think it goes 5.

[Ennder]

Arenado's career OPS at Miller Park is 1.250 and vs Mil is 1.089. I hope he stays cold but I fear he won't.

[NYChez]

What are expectations for impact of shadows and glare for Thursday’s 4pm game? I’d imagine batting won’t be impacted much after the first couple of innings, but the left fielders might have a rough time. The forecast is for sun Thursday but clouds Friday.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think Yelich is going to get the Bonds treatment to start this series, and it will be up to the rest of the Brewers' middle of the order to make CO pay for taking the bat out of his hands. Key to the series from a Brewers' perspective is how productive the #3-5 spots in the order are.

 

I'm very interested in hearing the Brewers' starting pitcher options for games 1-3 of this series. Maybe I'm nuts, but I think Anderson needs to be on the postseason roster if he isn't injured, particularly with the Rockies' biggest bats being right handed (Arenado, Story). I get that he's given up alot of HR and I'm not sure if I'd pencil Chase in for a start, but I think he'd be a solid long relief option in games started by Miley or Gio.

 

I also feel like one of the Brewers' biggest strengths down the stretch is about to be significantly handcuffed - their ability to have quality depth of 35-36 guys on the expanded September rosters. Moving back to a 25 man playoff roster is really going to lead to some tough decisions and guys are going to be left off that have really contributed the past few weeks - I think I'd prefer they prioritize an extra spot or two for pitchers and live with the risk of being a bit shorthanded for a backup IF or OF spot - I think a guy like Perez is valuable to serve as a reserve IF/OF, even if there may be better options as a pinch runner or late inning OF defensive replacement. The quality RH bullpen options the Rockies have will make it important to carry as many LH bats as possible.

[obobo55new]

Woodruff had a horrific start in Colorado back in May.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

A few thoughts:

 

1) Arenado is terrifying. Yes, the home/road splits are bad, but we know what happens at Miller Park. The good news is most of the Rockies big bats are righties, and the environment at MP is a little less friendly there. Blackmon and Dahl scare me offensively, as do Arenado and Story. Beyond those four, I'm not really that intimidated by a guy like LeMahieu. Maybe he thrashes us, but then you just tip your hat.

 

2) The Rockies OF defense is very bad. But the infield defense is stellar. Yelich and Cain do still hit a lot of groundballs, and Arenado can turn a lot of them into outs.

 

3) I do think we'll be more comfortable at Coors than a lot of teams. Peralta (who I think makes the roster base on the matchup) has pitched well there this year, and Chacin has strong career numbers there IIRC. I know we all want the first two at MP, but a split wouldn't be a terrible outcome.

 

4) I am so glad the Rockies pulled it off. I think we're probably a 57-60 percent favorite against them and only slightly smaller against the Cubs. We totally could lose. It's baseball. It's a short series. It's random. But winning on Monday felt like being given 100 grand. A Cubs win would have meant being forced to bet it all on a 55-45 gamble. Not fun. We might lose, but it won't stain the regular season nearly as much for me.

[obobo55new]

1 Story, T COL SS .276 .328 .452 .780

3 Arenado, N COL 3B .248 .325 .447 .772

4 Blackmon, C COL CF .249 .329 .439 .768

5 Parra, G COL LF .291 .354 .386 .739

6 Desmond, I COL 1B .233 .296 .438 .734

8 LeMahieu, D COL 2B .229 .277 .422 .698

9 Gonzalez, C COL RF .241 .302 .361 .663

12 Dahl, D COL RF .200 .274 .324 .597

13 Iannetta, C COL C .178 .313 .276 .590Iannetta

 

Main guys road OPS. Now note that alot of these are in pitchers parks of LA/SD/SF. So they are probably down a bit more than at Miller...

[tmwiese55]

I don't think I've seen it here yet, apologies if I missed it, but Story has crushed the Brewers this year. 7 HRs, 18 RBI and a 1.609 OPS. As I noted in a thread yesterday, I really thought the Cubs were a better on paper matchup for us but still glad to just have them gone as I really have no beef with the Rox and would root for them if they beat us. This should be a heck of a series.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

What are expectations for impact of shadows and glare for Thursday’s 4pm game? I’d imagine batting won’t be impacted much after the first couple of innings, but the left fielders might have a rough time. The forecast is for sun Thursday but clouds Friday.

 

I remember the 2011 NLDS. Weren't all three games at MP played with roof closed panels closed in order to promote consistent game conditions?

[Oxy]

McCalvy says its a bullpen game for Game 1. Hoping that means Soria to start, then bring on Miley after Soria gets through Arenado and Story. Or perhaps just go with Burnes or Woodruff... Chacin is starting game 2 on short rest.

[shanedog19]

Still hoping for Peralta, the Rockies have a right handed heavy lineup. And we all know what he did against them last time.

[Oxy]

Still hoping for Peralta, the Rockies have a right handed heavy lineup. And we all know what he did against them last time.

 

This is probably the winner.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Charlie Blackmon (LH) is the Rockies leadoff batter so we'll probably see Jennings or Cedeno for 1 batter then give way to one of Peralta, Burnes, or Woodruff. Blackmon doesn't have dramatic splits but he does slug 61 points lower vs LHP.