Paul Molitor Relieved of Coaching Duties

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I am not saying you are wrong, just that you cannot present this as some known fact.

 

100% true, no one can. The best analytics and math can never ensure an outcome. But I can tell you as certain fact, the math says - if you can't have your best pitcher pitch in 162 games, you'll get the most value using him in the ones you have a lead and keeping him out of the ones you're losing. The best any pitcher can do is hold the other team at zero additional runs. No pitcher has the ability to take runs already scored off the board. If you have to pick and choose when to use your best bullets, use them in situations where no matter what your offense does the rest of the way, you can still win. Using Hader in games the Brewers trail, where the odds still say they're more likely to lose, is not the best allotment of innings.

[topper09er]

OK, so its not being done at all then. Its like projections, they are only useful on the average, but for an given individual player they are worthless.

Even at a macro level, I don't see how you can compare what actually vs what might have happened in some alternate universe in order to conclude that in both universe you get the same outcomes anyways so it doesn't matter.

 

No, its just being done in an intelligent way. Trying to judge a manager by looking at every single decision individually would never work. Of course it isn't perfect but it doesn't need to be. The question of whether a great manager is worth 5 wins or 10 wins or 30 wins doesn't require perfection. The ballpark answer is most likely 5 wins while I'm sure there are those who believe in the 30.

 

Most likely based on what? A model that already goes into it with the assumption that individual decisions do not matter. Macro level. Context ignored, which I think makes it fundamentally useless in this exercise.

 

I get how it works, you just look at the whole season, and conclude using a different reliever here or there may save a few runs but a win is worth 9.5 runs etc. The model that treats decision in a 1-1 game the same as decisions in a 12-2 game. A model that assumes if the game is 1-1 in the 9th then the whole team needs to share the blame for failing so score those other 3.5 runs they score on average so if the manager can generate 1 more run in that game its nothing special.

 

It is not an intelligent way, its just the best way we can realistically do now. Exactly like player projections, useful on the whole, useless at the individual level.

[topper09er]

I am not saying you are wrong, just that you cannot present this as some known fact.

 

100% true, no one can. The best analytics and math can never ensure an outcome. But I can tell you as certain fact, the math says - if you can't have your best pitcher pitch in 162 games, you'll get the most value using him in the ones you have a lead and keeping him out of the ones you're losing. The best any pitcher can do is hold the other team at zero additional runs. No pitcher has the ability to take runs already scored off the board. If you have to pick and choose when to use your best bullets, use them in situations where no matter what your offense does the rest of the way, you can still win. Using Hader in games the Brewers trail, where the odds still say they're more likely to lose, is not the best allotment of innings.

 

You can't say this at all. You get the most value out him by maximizing the inning he pitches at a highly effective level. For example, if Hader was on the Orioles and only had 40 appearances this season it would not be the most valuable usage of him.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I am not saying you are wrong, just that you cannot present this as some known fact.

 

100% true, no one can. The best analytics and math can never ensure an outcome. But I can tell you as certain fact, the math says - if you can't have your best pitcher pitch in 162 games, you'll get the most value using him in the ones you have a lead and keeping him out of the ones you're losing. The best any pitcher can do is hold the other team at zero additional runs. No pitcher has the ability to take runs already scored off the board. If you have to pick and choose when to use your best bullets, use them in situations where no matter what your offense does the rest of the way, you can still win. Using Hader in games the Brewers trail, where the odds still say they're more likely to lose, is not the best allotment of innings.

 

You can't say this at all. You get the most value out him by maximizing the inning he pitches at a highly effective level. For example, if Hader was on the Orioles and only had 40 appearances this season it would not be the most valuable usage of him.

 

I can also say with 100% certainty that you're allowed to look at it in whatever way you want. More power to you. Go Brewers!

 

I'll add that I've seen a printout of the math and the numbers back up Counsell's approach with holding Hader back from games their losing. I also know that people will believe and are entitled to believe that the math is wrong.

[brewmann04]

I would hope Molly would come back to Milwaukee but don't see it happening

[brewmann04]

any update on Molly possible next move?

[rickh150]

No one can tell me managers don't matter when the whole world knew it was a bad idea to play Mark Kotsay in CF or start a clearly out of gas Shaun Marcum in the 2011 playoffs. Yet Ron Roenicke made those choices. We can see clearly today that Craig Counsell wouldn't make those same decisions.

 

Throw in starting Suppan in Game 4 of the 2008 NLDS..... also, didn't Kotsay hit a HR in his start in 2011 NLCS Game 4?? They also won that game. Others have brought this up over the years, yet he did well in the start, didn't he?

[rickh150]

any update on Molly possible next move?

 

If he was reassigned to the team, my guess is that he'll be helping in the front office. Does he want to keep coaching lower level talent at his age?

[cesser000]

also, didn't Kotsay hit a HR in his start in 2011 NLCS Game 4?? They also won that game. Others have brought this up over the years, yet he did well in the start, didn't he?

It was game 3 in which Kotsay started in CF and hit his homer. Saint Louis scored 4 in the opening frame, and Kotsay's poor play on this fly ball opened the floodgates ---

--- the Cards wound up hanging on for the win, 4-3 --- https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLN/SLN201110120.shtml