2019 MLB Draft

[Eye Black]

Reminder that the above information is no longer accurate as the Brewers gave up the Comp A selection in the trade for Alex Claudio (and they forfeited their 3rd highest selection for signing Yasmani Grandal).

 

Looking at the draft, it is pretty much a crapshoot at this point (especially when you're drafting 28th overall), but Baseball America's newest Mock Draft has the Brewers taking Hunter Barco, a LHP out of Bolles High School in Jacksonville. The note ties the Brewers to being one of the teams showing interest in Barco this spring.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Would rather have Pick #39 than Alex Claudio but what can you do...

[IIAY]

Nathan Stevens and Waunakee are playing at Miller Park today. Would be interested to hear from Patrick or Toby their thoughts on Stevens or any of the other top WI prep players that may have a chance at being drafted in the top 10 rounds.

[LouisEly]

Three weeks from the draft and we had our first post in over a month.

 

Pretty telling how far the major league club has come in the last couple of years.

[Eye Black]

FanGraphs released their Mock Draft 2.0 with the following being listed as the Brewers selection...

 

28. Brewers – Maurice Hampton, CF, Memphis University HS (TN)

Hampton fits the Brewers’ upside type as a young-for-the-class, up-the-middle athlete with big exit velos, though he’s raw enough to get to this pick. Hampton is also an LSU cornerback commit but should be signable in this range.

[DHonks]

I'd like to see us draft hitters. We built our incredible run from 2007 through now with stud hitters. I like drafting hitters early, pitchers heavily after around round 4.

[monkeyman343434]

Just for clarification, after trading the Competitive Round A pick to Texas, and losing the 3rd round pick for signing Grandal, the Brewers first picks are: 1.28; 2.65; and 4.133?

[sveumrules]

Would rather have Pick #39 than Alex Claudio but what can you do...

 

Claudio posted 3.7 fWAR/4.8 bWAR in the three seasons before we acquired him & likely projects to produce similar value over the three years of control we have.

 

For comparison, here are the fifteen #39 picks from 2000-14...

 

Negative WAR (3): David Huff (2006, -1.8), Anthony Ranaudo (2010, -1.5), Connor Joe (2014, -0.1).

 

No MLB (7): Chad Hawkins (2000), Wyatt Allen (2001), Jay Rainville (2004), Hank Sanchez (2005), James Adkins (2007), Kentrail Davis (2009), Larry Greene (2011).

 

Push (3): Mark Teahan (2002, 2 .6), TGJ (2003, 5.2), Knebel (2013, 4.3)

 

Win (2): Lance Lynn (2008, 15.1), Joey Gallo (2012, 7.0)

 

So you've got 10 guys who provided zilch or worse & 3 guys who provided similar value against only 2 guys who produced more value than Alex likely projects to provide.

 

I'm guessing the front office has performed much more comprehensive versions of this exercise & the results probably came back that three years of Claudio had a much higher likelihood of providing positive value than the 39th pick in any draft.

[LouisEly]

Of the guys that MLB.com has in their 25-50 range, Gunnar Henderson is by far my favorite. Future 3B to play along side of Turang, good LH bat. Greg Jones is intriguing, assuming they move him to CF. Could easily see the Brewers being in on Maurice Hampton. Wouldn't be upset with Michael Busch.

 

In the 2nd round I like prep arms Jimmy Lewis, Andrew Dalquist, and Jack Kochanowicz. Dalquist sounds a bit Freddy Peralta-ish with two and four-seamers and extension that creates deception. Kochanowicz supposedly has a great spin rate on his curveball.

[trwi7]

Would rather have Pick #39 than Alex Claudio but what can you do...

 

Claudio posted 3.7 fWAR/4.8 bWAR in the three seasons before we acquired him & likely projects to produce similar value over the three years of control we have.

 

For comparison, here are the fifteen #39 picks from 2000-14...

 

Negative WAR (3): David Huff (2006, -1.8), Anthony Ranaudo (2010, -1.5), Connor Joe (2014, -0.1).

 

No MLB (7): Chad Hawkins (2000), Wyatt Allen (2001), Jay Rainville (2004), Hank Sanchez (2005), James Adkins (2007), Kentrail Davis (2009), Larry Greene (2011).

 

Push (3): Mark Teahan (2002, 2 .6), TGJ (2003, 5.2), Knebel (2013, 4.3)

 

Win (2): Lance Lynn (2008, 15.1), Joey Gallo (2012, 7.0)

 

So you've got 10 guys who provided zilch or worse & 3 guys who provided similar value against only 2 guys who produced more value than Alex likely projects to provide.

 

I'm guessing the front office has performed much more comprehensive versions of this exercise & the results probably came back that three years of Claudio had a much higher likelihood of providing positive value than the 39th pick in any draft.

 

Okay. Now what about all the guys after 39? And a lot of us felt 39 could have been included in a package that brought something better than a LOOGY.

[HiAndTight]

 

Okay. Now what about all the guys after 39? And a lot of us felt 39 could have been included in a package that brought something better than a LOOGY.

 

 

Or the money we lost that we could have used to take a flier or two.

 

And I really don't care what stats you throw up there, Claudio is not in the same league as Knebel. I remember there were the stats floating around trying to show how he was comparable to Kimbrel, Knebel, and Jeffress. He's a soft-tossing lefty who played for a bad team.

 

I'm not going to argue the merits of WAR because it's a great tool, but it's not flawless. I hated trading the 39th pick for a guy like Claudio when we did it and watching him pitch for a half makes it far worse.

 

Give me Dan Jennings, the 39th pick and the slot money that comes with that every day....and I'm sure Stearns would do the same if he could go back.

[And That]

This is being regarded by some as a historically bad draft class. With that in mind, this might actually be the best year to give up the 39th pick for a sure thing.

[sveumrules]

 

Okay. Now what about all the guys after 39? And a lot of us felt 39 could have been included in a package that brought something better than a LOOGY.

 

 

Or the money we lost that we could have used to take a flier or two.

 

And I really don't care what stats you throw up there, Claudio is not in the same league as Knebel. I remember there were the stats floating around trying to show how he was comparable to Kimbrel, Knebel, and Jeffress. He's a soft-tossing lefty who played for a bad team.

 

I'm not going to argue the merits of WAR because it's a great tool, but it's not flawless. I hated trading the 39th pick for a guy like Claudio when we did it and watching him pitch for a half makes it far worse.

 

Give me Dan Jennings, the 39th pick and the slot money that comes with that every day....and I'm sure Stearns would do the same if he could go back.

 

Sure, some picks turn out after 39, but far more bust. I just looked at #39 because that's the pick we gave up. Again, I'm sure the front office has performed much more comprehensive versions of the exercise than the one I just did on a message board & determined that the certainty provided by Claudio over the next three years is more valuable to a team in the midst of their competitive window than a pick around the #39 range in any draft, & maybe even especially this one if it considered weak like AndThat said. I'd also imagine if they were intent on moving the #39 pick for that reason that they shopped it around & though Claudio was the best of the possible returns.

 

Dan Jennings? The one that had a 13.50 ERA with the Nats before he got sent down to AAA & is currently in designation limbo?

 

There is no doubt that Knebel is a more talented pitcher than Claudio, that is why he was drafted higher & has been more highly regarded throughout their careers. & yet, over 2016-2018 Knebel had 4.1fWAR/3.7 bWAR compared to 3.7 fWAR/4.8bWAR for Claudio. So there production has been comparable & Claudio will certainly outproduce Knebel this year.

 

We have Claudio for three years. I highly doubt Stearns has buyer's remorse when Alex still has almost 90% of his tenure as a Brewer still remaining.

[LouisEly]

Okay. Now what about all the guys after 39?

Every year there will be players drafted after #39 who go on to have very productive major league careers. That is not the question; the question is the probability of that pick becoming a productive major leaguer, and that probability does not increase after pick #39. The probability decreases.

[SRB]

Any Brewers-specific draft rumors, rather than rehashing the (extremely wrong) argument that trading for Claudio was foolish?

 

Seems awfully quiet this year with the draft just over a week away. Though I guess picking as low as we are there's really no way of predicting who we are targeting.

[KeithStone53151]

Any Brewers-specific draft rumors, rather than rehashing the (extremely wrong) argument that trading for Claudio was foolish?

 

Seems awfully quiet this year with the draft just over a week away. Though I guess picking as low as we are there's really no way of predicting who we are targeting.

 

Right, all the top names will be long gone before we get a chance. I'm sure they'll go with an athletic up the middle player and/or someone with an excellent hit tool. Highly unlikely they even consider a pitcher in my opinion.

[battlekow]

Latest mock draft from Jonathan Mayo at MLB.com:

 

28. Brewers: Tyler Callihan, 3B, Providence HS (Jacksonville, Fla.)

 

The Brewers would love for an arm like Malone to get here, and they could look at another prep arm like Goss. But if Malone is off the board, they would have interest in Callihan, one of the better high school hitters in the class.

[IIAY]

First-round mock draft from the staff of The Athletic ($):

 

No. 28: Milwaukee Brewers

 

Seth Johnson, RHP, Campbell

 

This would mark the first time the Brewers have selected a non-position player in the first round since 2014, so this is a bit of a projection. But Johnson represents everything the club likes: a strong right-handed arm, projectability and upside. After primarily playing shortstop at Louisburg Community College (NC), he transferred to Campbell University, where he pitched more frequently. With a fastball that sits in the low- to mid-90s that can touch 96, along with what some scouts believe to be a good mix of off-speed pitches, he is a worthy selection at 28. He could fall a little further, considering he still has limited experience on the mound. But he has the upside that teams, especially the Brewers, covet. — Robert Murray (@ByRobertMurray)

[Madhawk23]

After reading up on Seth Johnson, he really does seem to be a great match with the Brewers drafting philosophy in recent years. Taking some chances on some high risk/high reward type guys (Hiura - injury, Turang - performance dipped, Rasmussen - injury, Kirby - injury, etc.). Johnson seems to be another one of those guys that other teams might pass on because there are too many question marks with him. But, if he figures things out - he could become a big time steal of a pick. I'd sign up for a guy like that in the 28th spot of the 1st round.

 

 

Speaking of high reward/high risk - are there other names in that category that we should look out for in this draft? Is there another Drew Rasmussen type guy that we can take a flyer on in rounds 5-10 that would have gone much higher if not for injury? I really like the idea of taking some risks with some of these draft picks - as the entire MLB draft is pretty much a crap shoot to begin with.

[Eye Black]

From FanGraphs Mock Draft 3.0 - Two Rounds:

 

28. Brewers – Brennan Malone, RHP, IMG Academy HS (FL)

We think they’ll kick the tires on some pitching like Malone, Goss, or Barco.

 

65. Brewers – Jamari Baylor, SS, Benedictine HS (VA)

[JosephC]

I would not project a pitcher to Milwaukee with their first pick until Stearns actually takes a pitcher with the first pick. Maybe this will be the year, but I'll be guessing it will be whoever the organization sees as the highest upside bat, regardless of position played. If Michael Busch or Kameron Misner make it to #28, debatable if either will, then either of those guys would be predictable picks. After those guys, any of the much talked about high schoolers (Maurice Hampton, Tyler Callihan, Gunnar Henderson) would all be excellent choices. Basically I wouldn't be surprised by any hitter that is currently projecting in the #15-#45 range, but would be a bit surprised if they take any pitcher. I loved the Turang pick but really thought that Stearns might take Shane McClanahan when the pick came up last year. Lefty pitching was probably the weakest area in the organization and having a college guy like that fall in your lap...but once again Stearns passed on the pitcher and took the bat. I'll keep believing he'll continue to do that until he does otherwise.

[Never Outhustled]

I would not project a pitcher to Milwaukee with their first pick until Stearns actually takes a pitcher with the first pick. Maybe this will be the year, but I'll be guessing it will be whoever the organization sees as the highest upside bat, regardless of position played. If Michael Busch or Kameron Misner make it to #28, debatable if either will, then either of those guys would be predictable picks. After those guys, any of the much talked about high schoolers (Maurice Hampton, Tyler Callihan, Gunnar Henderson) would all be excellent choices. Basically I wouldn't be surprised by any hitter that is currently projecting in the #15-#45 range, but would be a bit surprised if they take any pitcher. I loved the Turang pick but really thought that Stearns might take Shane McClanahan when the pick came up last year. Lefty pitching was probably the weakest area in the organization and having a college guy like that fall in your lap...but once again Stearns passed on the pitcher and took the bat. I'll keep believing he'll continue to do that until he does otherwise.

 

I agree that they'll go with a bat. I'll predict their guy will be Brady Mcconnell. Draft eligible sophomore having a big year at the plate. Great athlete, highly rated out of high school, plays SS.

[MadThinker88]

This is free content & I thought others here would be interested..

 

https://247sports.com/mlb/indians/ContentGallery/2019-MLB-Mock-Draft-30-132398123/#132398123_22

 

Its a mock draft, picks 1 thru 41.... Enjoy.

 

For the Brewers -

28 Milwaukee Tyler Callihan, 3B, Providence HS (FL)

 

Sleeper Braden Shewmake, SS, TAMU

 

 

The Brewers go for hitters with clean profiles and potential above average to plus hit tools. This is the profile for a first round pick under Stearns. They never get held up by what a player can’t do or what they have not developed but, instead, just focus on the hitter. Callihan is a potential above-average hit and power prospect who has played first, third, and catcher. He is a sub-six foot, but a well-built player whose ability as a hitter is why he is going to be drafted. The fact that he will turn 19 at the end of June and the questions about his position are why he is still on the board this late in the draft. I think he is a lot closer to Brett Baty than he gets credit for. If the Brewers want to go the college route, I would think that Shewmake, the polished infielder from Texas A&M, would make the most sense.

[patrickgpe]

I'm all for taking a bat, and getting pitching later. DS has drafted Middle Infielders and CF's exclusively in the 1st. I wouldn't be shocked if they do this again. This draft will be interesting with the low bonus pool and surrendering 2 early picks, it makes it harder to above slot players early and low ceiling guys in round 5-10.

[And That]

I'll have an aggregated top 350 prospects up tomorrow. This is based on lists from BA, PG, MLB, PBR, etc. Would be up now but the formatting is a bear.

 

This is who I have at the Brewers picks (not a prediction):

 

28. Hunter Barco, LHP, Bolles HS (FL)

65. Jack Kochanowicz, RHP, Harriton HS (PA)

133. Karl Kauffman, RHP, Michigan

163. Drake Fellows, RHP, Vanderbilt

193. Dylan Eskew, RHP, Sickles HS (FL)

223. Jasiah Dixon, OF, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)

253. Caleb Kilian, RHP, Texas Tech

283. Thomas Wilhite, RHP, West Ouachita HS (LA)

313. Nick Wallerstedt, RHP, Phoenix Mountain Pointe HS (AZ)

343. Chase Murray, OF, Georgia Tech