2019 MLB Draft

[bork]

In all the excitement today, the draft order got a small blurb. They pick 26th, ahead of only the 4 big AL teams.

 

Hope they can find a late round pick like Plesac or Sveum and not Arnett, Coulter or Roache.

[ZBTMP]

Unfortuantely 3 first rounders (2 ahead of us) did not sign so we should have pick 28 and should get a CB-A pick between 40-45.

[And That]

Here is Fangraphs' 2019 draft board at this point. Which will provide little indication of who will be around come next June for the Brewers at 28. Brice Turang was still in the top couple spots on most draft boards at this point last year.

[Jenkins5]

Apparently really bad year for pitchers & year of the SS....

[MrTPlush]

Apparently really bad year for pitchers & year of the SS....

 

Well we pick 28th so at that point it is already a giant crapshoot.

[Mr Southpaw]

I would like to see what we did in the 2016 in the mid top ten picks. Lots of college age arms with the top ten picks. After Zach Brown and a couple of other tweeners in AA and AAA our pitching prospects are all 18 year old crap shots. I would love to have a Corbin Burnes and Zach Brown type pitchers come out of 6-7 top ten 2019 picks.

[sveumrules]

Will be curious to see how highly Stearns & company value this pick.

 

I think Grandal will get QO'd by the Dodgers, but they won't be that motivated to resign him with Barnes already in MLB & Smith/Ruiz knocking on the door.

 

Given our need at catcher I could see Yasmani being appealing around 3/50 considering he's a switch hitter that has never posted an OPS+ under 100 (121 this year, 115 career) & consistently rates as one of the best pitch framers in the game.

 

Obviously the downside is losing this late first round pick & we'd be getting his age 30-32 seasons, which is when things start to get scary for catchers.

[amt2138]

Late in the first might be the spot to take a top pitcher that goes down to Tommy John and dropped because of it. Obviously not cheering for it to happen but knowing the nature of the game and how amateur coaches take care of their pitchers it might be something to look for. Feels like their has been some success going this route lately with Buehler, Giolito, Fedde popping to my mind right away. Obviously the successful ones stick out a lot more than the unsuccessful ones which I'm sure there are many.

[Eye Black]

Obviously the downside is losing this late first round pick & we'd be getting his age 30-32 seasons, which is when things start to get scary for catchers.

Regardless of who they sign they won’t forfeit this selection under the new CBA...

 

A team's highest first-round pick is exempt from forfeiture, any additional first-round picks are eligible. Under the previous CBA, only the top 10 overall picks were exempt from forfeiture, so this is a big change.

[sveumrules]

Thanks for the info, Eye Black.

 

Glad they changed that & clearly missed that they did.

[HiAndTight]

Late in the first might be the spot to take a top pitcher that goes down to Tommy John and dropped because of it. Obviously not cheering for it to happen but knowing the nature of the game and how amateur coaches take care of their pitchers it might be something to look for. Feels like their has been some success going this route lately with Buehler, Giolito, Fedde popping to my mind right away. Obviously the successful ones stick out a lot more than the unsuccessful ones which I'm sure there are many.

 

 

Always a fan of this strategy. Grab the guy who looked the best before he started struggling with elbow injuries. This is only slighly hyperbolic, but it's almost better to draft a guy who needs TJ surgery. Get it out of the way and you most likely won't have to worry about it again....at least for a while.

[clancyphile]

I'd rather go for the guy with the best hit-for-average tool and good OBP skills.

[LouisEly]

Late in the first might be the spot to take a top pitcher that goes down to Tommy John and dropped because of it. Obviously not cheering for it to happen but knowing the nature of the game and how amateur coaches take care of their pitchers it might be something to look for. Feels like their has been some success going this route lately with Buehler, Giolito, Fedde popping to my mind right away. Obviously the successful ones stick out a lot more than the unsuccessful ones which I'm sure there are many.

 

 

Always a fan of this strategy. Grab the guy who looked the best before he started struggling with elbow injuries. This is only slighly hyperbolic, but it's almost better to draft a guy who needs TJ surgery. Get it out of the way and you most likely won't have to worry about it again....at least for a while.

Nathan Kirby says hello. He said it doesn't always work out that way.

[OnaBadger58]

I'd rather go for the guy with the best hit-for-average tool and good OBP skills.

Who would've guessed

[reillymcshane]

Late in the first might be the spot to take a top pitcher that goes down to Tommy John and dropped because of it. Obviously not cheering for it to happen but knowing the nature of the game and how amateur coaches take care of their pitchers it might be something to look for. Feels like their has been some success going this route lately with Buehler, Giolito, Fedde popping to my mind right away. Obviously the successful ones stick out a lot more than the unsuccessful ones which I'm sure there are many.

 

 

Always a fan of this strategy. Grab the guy who looked the best before he started struggling with elbow injuries. This is only slighly hyperbolic, but it's almost better to draft a guy who needs TJ surgery. Get it out of the way and you most likely won't have to worry about it again....at least for a while.

Nathan Kirby says hello. He said it doesn't always work out that way.

Because Nathan Kirby has struggled should we invalidate the idea?

[3and2Fastball]

Here is Fangraphs' 2019 draft board at this point. Which will provide little indication of who will be around come next June for the Brewers at 28. Brice Turang was still in the top couple spots on most draft boards at this point last year.

 

A lot can change, obviously, but I like that some big strong HS third basemen are listed right around where the Brewers pick. Rece Hinds would be a nice addition to the Brewers farm system.

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=373927

[clancyphile]

Here is Fangraphs' 2019 draft board at this point. Which will provide little indication of who will be around come next June for the Brewers at 28. Brice Turang was still in the top couple spots on most draft boards at this point last year.

 

A lot can change, obviously, but I like that some big strong HS third basemen are listed right around where the Brewers pick. Rece Hinds would be a nice addition to the Brewers farm system.

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=373927

 

More intrigued by Zach Thompson, myself. Granted a bit of a reach at 28 (he's #35), but...

[Eye Black]

A lot of videos available of the players in the 2019 draft class at 2080 Baseball.

[brewcrewdue80]

Will be curious to see how highly Stearns & company value this pick.

 

I think Grandal will get QO'd by the Dodgers, but they won't be that motivated to resign him with Barnes already in MLB & Smith/Ruiz knocking on the door.

 

Given our need at catcher I could see Yasmani being appealing around 3/50 considering he's a switch hitter that has never posted an OPS+ under 100 (121 this year, 115 career) & consistently rates as one of the best pitch framers in the game.

 

Obviously the downside is losing this late first round pick & we'd be getting his age 30-32 seasons, which is when things start to get scary for catchers.

 

You think Grandal deserves a QO? Well just checked and he was. But how in the world would he turn the QO down? What is that going to be like 18million for 1 year? Who would seriously cough up money like that for a catcher besides the likes of LA or NY, while losing something towards their draft? Lucroy was far better player only he had a bad season leading up to his FA. Followed up with 6.5mil 1 year contract. After this past season's FA and that the Catcher now below him in salary is 11mil, I see no way he will approach 18mil for 2019.

 

On the other end, LA QO'd Ryu, which would have likely been the kind of target I think Stearns dipped in to for less money than expected. Only now at 18mil, no chance, no way. Good Luck LA with committing 36million in to these two players.

 

As to the draft, it's gotta be such a crapshoot at this time to even think who will be a pick at 28 for us. Players that are top 20 in the minds today, half likely won't be top 30 come day of the draft. Gotta be at least 5 outside the top 50 who climb inside the top 25. That literally may hold true the final 20 days leading up to the draft.

 

Just looked it up and these 7 were handed QOs:

Grandal

Ryu

Corbin

Harper

Kimbrel

Pollock

Kuechel

 

Not sure who you'd pluck from that. Pollock would have been a good grab to play OF, but that is clearly not needed. Kuechel is #1 SP in this class makes him priced out of our market.

Kimbrel would fit this clubs current RP strategy, but do we really need to add a pricey RP to this team's future salary outlooks, and block more up and comers?

Harper...ha

 

Would only leave Corbin. Like Grandal, he's coming off a career year. He'll be overvalued, don't see that going our way. Another big market overpay.

 

But just maybe, Grandal foolishly declines his QO, and after many months pass on by, he ends up signing a cheaper deal like 12mil a year? But really, how could he pass up on 18mil, almost doubles his career earnings, while being the 4th highest paid for his position.

[brewmann04]

Kirby is only one year removed from his surgery maybe we give it a second season.

[brewmann04]

I am all for grabbing the best pitcher at 28 because you never have enough pitching especially starters.

[Eye Black]

The exact order of the competitive balance selections should come out sometime over the next week.

 

The Brewers will receive a Comp A round pick which currently would fall between selections #34 to #39.

[clancyphile]

The exact order of the competitive balance selections should come out sometime over the next week.

 

The Brewers will receive a Comp A round pick which currently would fall between selections #34 to #39.

 

Very interesting... that does make getting Zach Thompson less of a reach, and the Crew could go for another pitcher as well.

[JDBrewCrew]

https://www.mlb.com/news/2019-mlb-draft-competitive-balance-rounds-set/c-300845574?tid=151437456

[Eye Black]

From the link above...

 

Competitive Balance Rounds A and B take place after the completion of the first and second rounds, respectively. No longer determined by lottery, all teams that fell in the bottom 10 in revenue or bottom 10 in market size got a pick in Round A in 2017, after the first round, or Round B, following the second round. A formula that takes revenue and winning percentage into account was used to award six Round A picks in 2017, with eight teams getting Comp Round B picks that year.

 

Last year, the groups of teams switched places, with eight Comp Round A picks and six in Round B, with Major League Baseball re-running the aforementioned formula. No teams dropped out, but the order in each round changed as a result.

 

The 2019 Comp Round A will be back to six picks, with the Marlins, Rays, Reds, A's, Brewers and Twins, in that order, getting selections that currently will be picks 34 through 40 (the Pirates have a supplemental pick at No. 37 for not signing Gunnar Hoglund, the 36th pick in 2018). The Round B order will be Royals, Orioles, Pirates, Padres, D-backs, Rockies, Indians and Cardinals. As of now, those selections will be picks No. 71 through 78.

 

The order and current pick numbers of Competitive Balance Rounds A and B are below. Pick numbers are subject to change based on trades (Competitive Balance Round picks can be traded) and qualifying offer free-agent signings.

Round A

34. Miami Marlins

35. Tampa Bay Rays

36. Cincinnati Reds

37. Pittsburgh Pirates*

38. Oakland A's

39. Milwaukee Brewers

40. Minnesota Twins

* Compensation for not signing Gunnar Hoglund in 2018

 

Round B

71. Kansas City Royals

72. Baltimore Orioles

73. Pittsburgh Pirates

74. San Diego Padres

75. Arizona Diamondbacks

76. Colorado Rockies

77. Cleveland Indians

78. St. Louis Cardinals

 

There are still changes that will come to the Draft order, starting with what happens with qualifying-offer free agent signing deals. Those deals will have some impact on what the Draft beyond the top picks looks like. Six of the seven free agents who received offers rejected them, with Dodgers lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu took a one-year, $17.9 million offer, becoming only the sixth player to accept among the 80 to receive offers since 2012.

 

Here are the six free agents who declined a qualifying offer, and what Draft compensation their 2018 teams stand to receive if the players sign elsewhere:

 

Astros -- Dallas Keuchel: Pick after Competitive Balance Round B

D-backs -- Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock:

A) If either player signs for at least $50 million: Pick between 1st round and Competitive Balance Round A

B) If either player signs for less than $50 million: Pick after Competitive Balance Round B

Dodgers -- Yasmani Grandal: Pick after Competitive Balance Round B

Nationals -- Bryce Harper: Pick after Round 4

Red Sox -- Craig Kimbrel: Pick after Round 4