2018-09-28: Tigers (Zimmermann) at Brewers (Davies) 7:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 6-5 -- Braun (2 HRs), Yelich (2-R HR) do it again!]

[Eye Black]

[pre]Tigers Lineup Brewers Lineup

1. 3B Jeimer Candelario (S) 1. CF Lorenzo Cain ®

2. 2B Harold Castro (L) 2. RF Christian Yelich (L)

3. RF Nick Castellanos ® 3. 1B Jesús Aguilar ®

4. SS Niko Goodrum (S) 4. 2B Travis Shaw (L)

5. 1B Jim Aducci (L) 5. LF Ryan Braun ®

6. C James McCann ® 6. 3B Mike Moustakas (L)

7. CF JaCoby Jones ® 7. C Erik Kratz ®

8. LF Víctor Reyes (S) 8. SS Orlando Arcia ®

9. P Jordan Zimmerman ® 9. P Zach Davies ®[/pre]

 

Link: Brewers Game Notes

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think we need to pick up a game tonight or it's WC time. Hard to imagine the Cubs lose the final two and we complete the sweep. Their win last night dropped our odds to about 1/3, so if we stay a game back after tonight it gets pretty bleak. If we lose a game in the standings tonight, I think you have to start balancing resting arms with your chances at the division.

[kalle8]

I am here, for eeeeeeearly batting practice.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think we need to pick up a game tonight or it's WC time. Hard to imagine the Cubs lose the final two and we complete the sweep. Their win last night dropped our odds to about 1/3, so if we stay a game back after tonight it gets pretty bleak. If we lose a game in the standings tonight, I think you have to start balancing resting arms with your chances at the division.

 

Regardless of what happens this weekend, we're going to have playoff baseball in October. In Milwaukee!

 

If the Brewers manage to pull out the division, that is gravy.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I agree completely, but dropping the WC would really be deflating. At least it's in Milwaukee. It would be cool to take out the team that outbid us for Machado if it comes to that.

[YelichPosse]

The best part of today, is we have a game that there are two teams with even more pressure on them than we have playing before we even take the field.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The best part of today, is we have a game that there are two teams with even more pressure on them than we have playing before we even take the field.

 

We basically have that every day. Their results will be known before our games are done barring rain. Great.

 

Edit: Not Sunday where the start times are 10 min apart. Weird, I was sure I checked that, but I see no indication the times changed.

[YelichPosse]

The best part of today, is we have a game that there are two teams with even more pressure on them than we have playing before we even take the field.

 

We basically have that every day. Their results will be known before our games are done barring rain. Great.

 

And the more i think about it, the more nerve wracking it is... lol.

 

 

This is crazy. I love it.

[AZBrewCrew]

Totally random and sort of on topic trying to make it to the game tonight...there is a bus that runs between Madison and Milwaukee correct? Having to fly into Madison instead of Milwaukee. It’s less than ideal but I’ll rent a car if need be.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[shanedog19]

Tonight's pitching matchup appears to be the most challenging. Zimmerman is capable of putting up good numbers, it would be nice to get some runs early. The only guy that can really beat you in their lineup is Castellanos, probably best to just avoid him whenever possible.

[bibstenets]

Totally random and sort of on topic trying to make it to the game tonight...there is a bus that runs between Madison and Milwaukee correct? Having to fly into Madison instead of Milwaukee. It’s less than ideal but I’ll rent a car if need be.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Yeah, we have used Badger Bus before (but from Milwaukee to Madison). I assume it works the same way: https://www.badgerbus.com/tickets

[hawing]

Yeah, Badger Bus actually boards across the street from my library. They definitely go to MKE, though I don't know where they stop. Goerke's Corners at least, I believe. Trust the link above over me.

[bucks2281]

Yeah, Badger Bus actually boards across the street from my library. They definitely go to MKE, though I don't know where they stop. Goerke's Corners at least, I believe. Trust the link above over me.

 

Badger Bus will stop at the Intermodal Station, which isn’t too far from Miller Park

[rcc]

The guys had an off day after celebrating. Thanks to MLB for the schedule. Now back home to meet the Tigers and keep up the good work. I always thought they could go to the playoffs as the wild card but now have a chance to win the division. What a year!

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think we need to pick up a game tonight or it's WC time. Hard to imagine the Cubs lose the final two and we complete the sweep. Their win last night dropped our odds to about 1/3, so if we stay a game back after tonight it gets pretty bleak. If we lose a game in the standings tonight, I think you have to start balancing resting arms with your chances at the division.

 

I actually disagree - based on pitching matchups this is probably the Cubs' best chance for a W, and the Brewers best chance for a L for their remaining 3 games. I'll be happy if the Brewers are still 1 game back, and enthusiastic if they pick up a game. In fact if the Brewers find themselves tied with the Cubs after tonight, I'd put their chances at winning the division outright at higher than 50% even with only 2 games remaining.

 

Also, the odds stuff is kind of dumb, captain obvious stuff at this point in the season. Of course it's about 1/3 with only 3 games left for the team trailing by 1 game. Not worried about probability percentages any more when it's literally two teams competing for a division within a game of each other with 3 games left.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think we need to pick up a game tonight or it's WC time. Hard to imagine the Cubs lose the final two and we complete the sweep. Their win last night dropped our odds to about 1/3, so if we stay a game back after tonight it gets pretty bleak. If we lose a game in the standings tonight, I think you have to start balancing resting arms with your chances at the division.

 

I actually disagree - based on pitching matchups this is probably the Cubs' best chance for a W, and the Brewers best chance for a L for their remaining 3 games. I'll be happy if the Brewers are still 1 game back, and enthusiastic if they pick up a game. In fact if the Brewers find themselves tied with the Cubs after tonight, I'd put their chances at winning the division outright at higher than 50% even with only 2 games remaining.

 

Also, the odds stuff is kind of dumb, captain obvious stuff at this point in the season. Of course it's about 1/3 with only 3 games left for the team trailing by 1 game. Not worried about probability percentages any more when it's literally two teams competing for a division within a game of each other with 3 games left.

 

That's not really how it works. The formulas are a lot more complicated than "there are 3 games left so the odds are 1/3." 538 is the more generous of the two major forecasters and Fangraphs has us at less than 1/4 with I think is probably closer to correct.

 

I do agree if end tonight tied, we become the favorite and I think the odds will reflect that.

[YelichPosse]

I think we need to pick up a game tonight or it's WC time. Hard to imagine the Cubs lose the final two and we complete the sweep. Their win last night dropped our odds to about 1/3, so if we stay a game back after tonight it gets pretty bleak. If we lose a game in the standings tonight, I think you have to start balancing resting arms with your chances at the division.

 

I actually disagree - based on pitching matchups this is probably the Cubs' best chance for a W, and the Brewers best chance for a L for their remaining 3 games. I'll be happy if the Brewers are still 1 game back, and enthusiastic if they pick up a game. In fact if the Brewers find themselves tied with the Cubs after tonight, I'd put their chances at winning the division outright at higher than 50% even with only 2 games remaining.

 

Also, the odds stuff is kind of dumb, captain obvious stuff at this point in the season. Of course it's about 1/3 with only 3 games left for the team trailing by 1 game. Not worried about probability percentages any more when it's literally two teams competing for a division within a game of each other with 3 games left.

 

That's not really how it works. The formulas are a lot more complicated than "there are 3 games left so the odds are 1/3." 538 is the more generous of the two major forecasters and Fangraphs has us at less than 1/4 with I think is probably closer to correct.

 

I do agree if end tonight tied, we become the favorite and I think the odds will reflect that.

 

Can we play the games already? So many scenarios ... this is driving me nuts. This team has proven many of us wrong this year, even when things seemed to fall apart time and time again they bounced back. And now... here we are... playing good ball at THE BEST possible time for once.

[KeithStone53151]

For tonight I like a lineup of

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Aguilar

Moustakas

Pina

Arcia

P

 

Basically the classic lineup except Braun back to the 3 hole. That most likely won't happen because it makes more sense to put the struggling guy in the 3 hole than the 2nd best hitter on the team...or something.

[KeithStone53151]

I personally don't want to see a play-in game. I'd rather straight lose and go to the wildcard than have a play-in game. I'm not sure if anyone has noticed, but we would be lined up to face Quintana in a play-in game. And what if we lose that game and use most of our best relievers? It just doesn't sit well.

[Roderick]

I personally don't want to see a play-in game. I'd rather straight lose and go to the wildcard than have a play-in game. I'm not sure if anyone has noticed, but we would be lined up to face Quintana in a play-in game. And what if we lose that game and use most of our best relievers? It just doesn't sit well.

 

We are only using the best relievers if we have a chance at the win.

 

I will take the one game coinflip Div Champ chance to bypass the one game coinflip WC to get to a real series.

[reillymcshane]

I love this! We are up to 21 posts, six hours before a game with the Tigers!

 

Gotta love playing ball in late September!

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think we need to pick up a game tonight or it's WC time. Hard to imagine the Cubs lose the final two and we complete the sweep. Their win last night dropped our odds to about 1/3, so if we stay a game back after tonight it gets pretty bleak. If we lose a game in the standings tonight, I think you have to start balancing resting arms with your chances at the division.

 

I actually disagree - based on pitching matchups this is probably the Cubs' best chance for a W, and the Brewers best chance for a L for their remaining 3 games. I'll be happy if the Brewers are still 1 game back, and enthusiastic if they pick up a game. In fact if the Brewers find themselves tied with the Cubs after tonight, I'd put their chances at winning the division outright at higher than 50% even with only 2 games remaining.

 

Also, the odds stuff is kind of dumb, captain obvious stuff at this point in the season. Of course it's about 1/3 with only 3 games left for the team trailing by 1 game. Not worried about probability percentages any more when it's literally two teams competing for a division within a game of each other with 3 games left.

 

That's not really how it works. The formulas are a lot more complicated than "there are 3 games left so the odds are 1/3." 538 is the more generous of the two major forecasters and Fangraphs has us at less than 1/4 with I think is probably closer to correct.

 

I do agree if end tonight tied, we become the favorite and I think the odds will reflect that.

 

Fangraphs had the Brewers pegged as mid-70s win team this year. 538 had the brewers as barely over 0.500. Sorry if I'm a bit skeptical of their methodologies to come up with these percentages/projections. All my point is that, at this point of the season, using a statistical model to predict outcomes for two competing teams in a 3 game series is pointless.

[topper09er]

Lets make sure the Tigers version Matt "Babe Ruth" Carpenter, Nick Castellanos doesn't beat us. In Sept. he has put up .352/.412/.580 in 102 PA.

[KeithStone53151]

Lets make sure the Tigers version Matt "Babe Ruth" Carpenter, Nick Castellanos doesn't beat us. In Sept. he has put up .352/.412/.580 in 102 PA.

 

That Belicheck style coaching...don't let a teams best player beat you.

[crossface21]

Even if the Brewers fall to 2 GB after tonight, I still don't think it's time to panic until they are mathematically eliminated. There's a good chance the Brewers take 2 of 3 from Detroit and I think there's a decent chance that STL can take 2 of 3 from the Cubs.