Sickels' Crystal Ball on Ryan Braun

[recte44]

I am probably in the minority thinking the overall crystal ball for Braun is TOO LOW. He's going to be much better for average and gap power than Sickels predicted.

[TooLiveBrew]

no, recte, I agree with you. One thing that surprised me is that Sickels didn't set one season with 200+ hits. I think Braun is a shoe-in for at least one. I think he also may BB quite a bit more than projected, but I do know the 'guess-ti-diction' is just meant for fun.

[BillScottCanRake]

no, recte, I agree with you. One thing that surprised me is that Sickels didn't set one season with 200+ hits. I think Braun is a shoe-in for at least one. I think he also may BB quite a bit more than projected, but I do know the 'guess-ti-diction' is just meant for fun.

 

Of course, the more a player walks, the harder it is to get 200 hits because you have fewer ABs to do it.

 

As good as Pujols has been, it took him hitting .359 to get 200+ hits (212) in a season. His walk totals (between 69-97) are such that he's never had 600 ABs (he has had 590, 590, 591, 592, 591, and 535) in a season in spite of playing 154 or more games five times.

 

On a side note, everyone talks about consistency in baseball. Take a look at Pujols stats for the first five years of his career and look how eerily consistent they are.

 

sports.espn.go.com/mlb/pl...yerId=4574

[TooLiveBrew]

Quote:

---

Take a look at Pujols stats for the first five years of his career and look how eerily consistent they are.

---

What's even crazier, IMO, is that A-Rod's consistency & head start on Big Al are going to make it nearly impossible for Pujols to run down whatever records Alex sets.

 

In all honesty, and as unpopular as it may be to suggest, in Alex Rodriguez, we may well be watching the best player that we'll see for another century.

 

Good point on the BBs, BSCR. I still stand by my assertion that he'll hit 200+ at least once. Call it a 'gut' thing. He's just such a good, aggressive hitter. Even with the BBs, I think he'll get there.

 

One part of Sickels's guesstimation I didn't like was that I think RB has a great chance to be a .320+ hitter nearly every year. Obviously, he most likely won't sustain that for a career, but 'hitting the ball where it's pitched' seems to be ingrained in his DNA.

[dadofandrew]

Sickels numbers on Prince...take a gander at his doubles. They are embarrassingly low. Not sure how anyone that hit 35-40 HR's could hit 20-25 doubles...doubles are a power stat, deep fly balls turn into doubles more than anything else.