Option/Arbitration decisions for 2019

[adambr2]

To me Schoop is looking more and more like a non-tender candidate. It's a tough pill to swallow after what you gave up for him, but every team makes mistakes. Sometimes it's better to just cut your losses and move on. I don't know how you can really justify a $10M or so arbitration tag for him.

 

I personally think Schoop is a talented player who for whatever reason has not been able to make the adjustment to playing in a more competitive environment with high expectations. I would not be surprised if he finds success elsewhere.

 

This becomes a lot easier I think if you can get Moose to take a $15M option for 2019, but I don't think that happens.

[brewmann04]

I like them to keep both guys at this point

[clancyphile]

I like them to keep both guys at this point

 

Same here. Schoop will do better, I think. He had 30 homers in 2017.

 

Furthermore, he buys time for Hiura to get 100% in shape. I have no problem using Schoop for the first three months. If he slumps, DFA and bring in Hiura. He does make for a good righty bat, and he is an option at short if Arcia is atrocious with the bat again.

[adambr2]

I like them to keep both guys at this point

 

Same here. Schoop will do better, I think. He had 30 homers in 2017.

 

Furthermore, he buys time for Hiura to get 100% in shape. I have no problem using Schoop for the first three months. If he slumps, DFA and bring in Hiura. He does make for a good righty bat, and he is an option at short if Arcia is atrocious with the bat again.

 

Its not my money, but I think as a general rule you probably shouldn't tender someone to a $10M contract if you're concerned you might have to DFA him in 3 months.

[pacopete4]

Moose Quote

[MrTPlush]

This is like Chris Carter all over again. If we want Schoop so bad just non tender him and sign him for cheaper on the open market.

[long ball]

Here are the MLBTR projected arbitration figures:

 

Brewers (15)

 

Jonathan Schoop – $10.1MM

Travis Shaw – $5.1MM

Corey Knebel – $4.9MM

Jeremy Jeffress – $4.8MM (has a $3.175MM club option)

Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM

Stephen Vogt – $3.065MM

Hernan Perez – $2.7MM

Junior Guerra – $2.7MM

Zach Davies – $2.4MM

Domingo Santana – $2.0MM

Manny Piña – $1.8MM

Dan Jennings – $1.6MM

Xavier Cedeño – $1.5MM

Erik Kratz – $1.0MM

Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM

[wallus]

Here are the MLBTR projected arbitration figures:

 

Brewers (15)

 

Jonathan Schoop – $10.1MM No

Travis Shaw – $5.1MM Yes

Corey Knebel – $4.9MM Yes

Jeremy Jeffress – $4.8MM (has a $3.175MM club option) Yes

Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM Yes

Stephen Vogt – $3.065MM No

Hernan Perez – $2.7MM Yes

Junior Guerra – $2.7MM Yes

Zach Davies – $2.4MM Yes

Domingo Santana – $2.0MM Yes

Manny Piña – $1.8MM Yes

Dan Jennings – $1.6MM No

Xavier Cedeño – $1.5MM No

Erik Kratz – $1.0MM No

Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM No

[Lathund]

Cedeño should be a definite yes IMO.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Brewers (15)

 

Jonathan Schoop – $10.1MM - Depends on their decision with Moustakas. If Moose stays, I think Shaw plays 2B, and Schoop may be gone. If Moose leaves, though, I think Schoop is back. And we aren't going to see Hiura until August/Sept. at the earliest. He's got ton to improve on, and is not close to ML ready.

Travis Shaw – $5.1MM - No brainer yes

Corey Knebel – $4.9MM - No brainer yes

Jeremy Jeffress – $4.8MM (has a $3.175MM club option) - No brainer yes

Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM - No brainer yes

Stephen Vogt – $3.065MM - Yes, with caveats. I think Kratz is likely to retire, and if Vogt makes a full recovery, he will fill the veteran back-up catcher role if they decide Nottingham isn't ready yet.

Hernan Perez – $2.7MM - Yes, that positional flexibility is too valuable

Junior Guerra – $2.7MM - Yes, because if he doesn't make the rotation, he will likely be a multi-inning bullpen arm

Zach Davies – $2.4MM - Yes, especially at this price. He may be dealt

Domingo Santana – $2.0MM - Yes, for sure. I think he's given another shot at being the every day RF next year. It also wouldn't surprise me to see him dealt

Manny Piña – $1.8MM - Yep, good price for an average offensive and above average defensive catcher.

Dan Jennings – $1.6MM - Yeah, he was good enough to come back at this price.

Xavier Cedeño – $1.5MM - Yep, I want to see more, even though he's been a little up and down

Erik Kratz – $1.0MM - Sure, if he wants to come back. I think he hangs it up after this season, though. If he continues to get clutch hits and play good D, he'll achieve folk hero status soon enough.

Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM - Ehh, probably not. That 40-man spot can probably be used more effectively, and he and Dubon have redundant skillsets.

[adambr2]

I don't think there is any way Vogt gets tendered. With that injury, there's doubt that he'll ever make it back. A shoulder injury like that, I think the best case scenario for him is a non-tender and either a minor league deal or minimum salary deal with incentives. I think there's a better chance of Kratz being back for $1M.

 

Pretty much agree with Joey on everything else except Jennings. Not that Jennings was terrible but I just think they'll look to upgrade there like they did with Hughes last year. Since we have a true LOOGY in Cedeno there's really no need for Jennings.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't think there is any way Vogt gets tendered. With that injury, there's doubt that he'll ever make it back. A shoulder injury like that, I think the best case scenario for him is a non-tender and either a minor league deal or minimum salary deal with incentives. I think there's a better chance of Kratz being back for $1M.

 

Pretty much agree with Joey on everything else except Jennings. Not that Jennings was terrible but I just think they'll look to upgrade there like they did with Hughes last year. Since we have a true LOOGY in Cedeno there's really no need for Jennings.

 

I guess I said yes on Vogt without really taking the price into account. You may be right though. I doubt there would be much competition for him out there, so there is probably a good chance he is non-tendered and brought back as a non-roster guy. They really seem to value his presence and leadership. That injury is a rough one for a catcher, though. I think he eventually ends up back in Milwaukee, though, if his health is good.

 

I was actually kind of a toss-up on Jennings. It will be interesting to see how they view Quentin Torres-Costa and Ramirez. If either of those guys are added to the 40-man this offseason, then Jennings may be gone.

[adambr2]

I don't think there is any way Vogt gets tendered. With that injury, there's doubt that he'll ever make it back. A shoulder injury like that, I think the best case scenario for him is a non-tender and either a minor league deal or minimum salary deal with incentives. I think there's a better chance of Kratz being back for $1M.

 

Pretty much agree with Joey on everything else except Jennings. Not that Jennings was terrible but I just think they'll look to upgrade there like they did with Hughes last year. Since we have a true LOOGY in Cedeno there's really no need for Jennings.

 

I guess I said yes on Vogt without really taking the price into account. You may be right though. I doubt there would be much competition for him out there, so there is probably a good chance he is non-tendered and brought back as a non-roster guy. They really seem to value his presence and leadership. That injury is a rough one for a catcher, though. I think he eventually ends up back in Milwaukee, though, if his health is good.

 

I was actually kind of a toss-up on Jennings. It will be interesting to see how they view Quentin Torres-Costa and Ramirez. If either of those guys are added to the 40-man this offseason, then Jennings may be gone.

 

Definitely think Torres-Costa gets added as he is Rule 5 eligible and I definitely could see him having a role in the 2019. They seem to like having one or two guys at the back end of the pen that they can rotate between AAA and MLB to keep the pen fresh. I think he could be one of those. I could see him getting called up for 10 day stretches or so when we have a couple lefty heavy bat teams coming up and we want an extra lefty in the pen.

[stalton]

It'll be interesting if this playoff run will be able to bump up our payroll for next year. I'm probably pulling this number out of my rear, but I thought I saw somewhere that playoffs give the team 10 to 15 million per round.

[nate82]

It'll be interesting if this playoff run will be able to bump up our payroll for next year. I'm probably pulling this number out of my rear, but I thought I saw somewhere that playoffs give the team 10 to 15 million per round.

 

Most of that is paid out to bonuses to the players and staff.

[NYChez]

Schoop doesn't appear to be capable of pulling a low-90's fastball. That's a trait of a 37-year old, not a 27-year old. Perhaps he had a big year when there wasn't much scouting on him or respect for him, and he's really never been that good.

[MNBrew]

Brewers (15)

 

Jonathan Schoop – $10.1MM - Depends on their decision with Moustakas. If Moose stays, I think Shaw plays 2B, and Schoop may be gone. If Moose leaves, though, I think Schoop is back. And we aren't going to see Hiura until August/Sept. at the earliest. He's got ton to improve on, and is not close to ML ready.

Travis Shaw – $5.1MM - No brainer yes

Corey Knebel – $4.9MM - No brainer yes

Jeremy Jeffress – $4.8MM (has a $3.175MM club option) - No brainer yes

Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM - No brainer yes

Stephen Vogt – $3.065MM - Yes, with caveats. I think Kratz is likely to retire, and if Vogt makes a full recovery, he will fill the veteran back-up catcher role if they decide Nottingham isn't ready yet.

Hernan Perez – $2.7MM - Yes, that positional flexibility is too valuable

Junior Guerra – $2.7MM - Yes, because if he doesn't make the rotation, he will likely be a multi-inning bullpen arm

Zach Davies – $2.4MM - Yes, especially at this price. He may be dealt

Domingo Santana – $2.0MM - Yes, for sure. I think he's given another shot at being the every day RF next year. It also wouldn't surprise me to see him dealt

Manny Piña – $1.8MM - Yep, good price for an average offensive and above average defensive catcher.

Dan Jennings – $1.6MM - Yeah, he was good enough to come back at this price.

Xavier Cedeño – $1.5MM - Yep, I want to see more, even though he's been a little up and down

Erik Kratz – $1.0MM - Sure, if he wants to come back. I think he hangs it up after this season, though. If he continues to get clutch hits and play good D, he'll achieve folk hero status soon enough.

Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM - Ehh, probably not. That 40-man spot can probably be used more effectively, and he and Dubon have redundant skillsets.

Keeping in mind that deals can happen before decisions on options & arbitration have to be made, I mostly agree w/ JMB with these variances:

 

Schoop -- I'm just not convinced he can be what we'd need him to be and I'm not sure the $10M-ish it'd take to keep him is worth the risk to find out. So I'd get out from under Schoop, whether by trade (ideally) or non-tendering him.

Jennings -- He was reasonably serviceable much of this year, but not stellar. I'd keep one of him or Cedeno, and I'd lean toward Cedeno, whose successes seem a little more convincing.

Vogt -- Health permitting, I'd give him a shot with a no-risk minor league NRI deal with a reasonable MLB salary and a team-friendly injury-protection safety net (e.g., active roster time incentives) if he actually can make the team.

Kratz -- If he's not retiring, I'd work out a deal before arbitration decisions become a factor. A $1M salary with a few PT-based incentives seems very reasonable.

 

We've also got Matt Albers, who was great pre-injury and unfortunately quite horrible afterwards. My hope is he can come back fully healthy and find his 2017 & April/May 2018 form. It'd stink to have to eat $2.5M (though not as bad as the balance of Wolf's & Suppan's salaries), but it would be a better alternative than using a roster spot on him IF he can't rediscover his previously very good form.

[Jopal78]

The Brewers would be wise to exercise their half of the 2019 mutual options on Soria and Moustakas.

 

At 10 million for 2019, Soria would be in line with the top tier relievers who cleaned up as free agents last offseason: Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee, Tommy Hunter (9 mil. AAV), Greg Holland (10 mil.) Brandon Morrow (10.5 mil AAV). Soria is an excellent late inning reliever and his statistical line in 2018 in terms of hits allowed, homers, walks and strikeouts is right on point with his career averages indicating there has been no slippage at 34 years old. The real question with Soria, does his agent believe he can get a multi-year deal in the same neighborhood. If so, he'll decline his half and go to free agency.

 

I'm not a big Moustakas fan but I would still exercise the team half of the 15 million dollar mutual option for 2019. If nothing else it give the Brewers options during the off-season. Shaw could be shopped for front line starting pitching, Shaw could move to 2B permanently and Schoop non-tendered. Schoop and Shaw stay, and Moustakas traded off. etc. Or keep all three for 2019.

 

It is hard to predict what will happen witch Schoop. Other than his grand slam against Bumgarner he has been a total disaster. Yet they did give up a promising pitching prospect and others to get him and he had a pretty good track record the last two years. I tend to think he'll be back because the front office's unwillingness to write it off as a mistake after 140 at bats with the Brewers.

 

Frankly, I kind of hope the Brewers bring back Granderson for 2019 as the 5th outfielder, and another quality left handed bat with some speed, power and ability to play multiple spots. The question here would be the price at which Granderson is willing to play at all in 2019. He made 5 million next year, and has said he'd retire before taking a minor league deal.

 

That being said, I'm not concerned about an extra 30-40 million in payroll given Chacin and Braun's salary goes down next year and the likelihood that Thames and possibly Chase Anderson are traded.

[TURBO]

Personally, I don't feel paying Soria 10 million would be prudent.

 

I'd much rather sign Moose for 15 million than Schoop for 10 million. Shaw moves to 2B full time until Huira is ready.

 

At Granderson's age, I'd pass on him as well.

[adambr2]

At this point I think both Schoop and Moose won't be back. Schoop is looking more and more like an easy pass. Moose is tougher and I'd probably be willing to do the 1/15 option to preserve the depth we have in the IF, but I wouldn't want to go multiple years which is probably what he's seeking. He did have a bad experience in free agency last time though so who knows.

 

I'd be happy to have Granderson back as a bench bat if the price is right.

 

I agree on Soria, and judging by Stearns' track record he doesn't seem to be intetested in paying those kinds of price tags for the volatility of relievers.

 

My guess is he will go out in late July next year and find the next Soria as a cheap rental, that seems to be the pattern when we're contending.

[3and2Fastball]

Very slight chance that Moose accepts the mutual option based on a soft market for him & the fact that he likes playing for the Brewers. Not extremely likely though.

[PeaveyFury]

At this point I think both Schoop and Moose won't be back. Schoop is looking more and more like an easy pass.

 

I forget the specifics regarding what is allowable following a non-tender and what isn't, but I do wonder if you could non-tender Schoop and sign him to a much more modest 'prove it' deal for a year or two. Seems like that's an easier use of capital to try and address 2nd base rather than acquiring someone else. None of us will ever know what happened to him this year to cause such a terrible season, but he seems like a decent bet to rebound to at least modest numbers with very good defense.

[rickh150]

Schoop at 10 million? Why? No way he is here for this.... will find a 2B by trade with Hiura in the wings and save the money for other arby guys.

Moose will look for a long term deal.... perhaps with us. 3 for 40 mil?

Cedeno is back, of course. A bullpen lefty, low price, enough trust to pitch him to a batter in Game 7.... he's back.

No to Vogt, yes to Kratz.

No to Jennings...

[anglotiger]

I'm probably overreacting here, but I'm done with Schoop.

 

I loved his potential when he was in the minors, and I wasn't at all unhappy when the Brewers picked him up, but I never thought that his pathetic .202/.246/.331 effort after the trade would vastly exceed his playoff performance...

 

I know they parted with assets to get him, and that he as 12th in the MVP voting in 2017, but I just don't see how he's worth picking up. I'm not using him as a scapegoat for the series loss to the Dodgers - there were plenty of underperformers with the bat - but he's just been such a letdown ever since the trade.

 

For me, the only way that you pick up the option is if you feel certain that you can move him in a trade...

[tmwiese55]

I don't want this to come off as a Moose bashing because generally he was fine and we got what we expected. But really is also the type of hitter we should be trying to move on from, not commit multiple years of significant money to. One year deals, sure there's next to no risk (that applies to Schoop too). If we can take away one universal lesson from Cain/Yeli acquisitions is contact and OBP is really important. Moose has half that since he doesn't K a ton, but a barely above .300 OBP is nothing special that we need to be tripping over ourselves to lock into the lineup.