Option/Arbitration decisions for 2019

[Dadbauer]

Hard to predict the Mets at all. They had a really bad year, but with a new GM coming in, who knows what direction they go. That staff if healthy can compete with anyone so an aggressive and savvy GM could help them compete. I would try and get Paxton from the Mariners who will soon decline.

[TooLiveBrew]

Hard to predict the Mets at all. They had a really bad year, but with a new GM coming in, who knows what direction they go. That staff if healthy can compete with anyone so an aggressive and savvy GM could help them compete. I would try and get Paxton from the Mariners who will soon decline.

I mean this in a non-snarky way, but why do you want to target Paxton if you think he'll decline soon?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Hard to predict the Mets at all. They had a really bad year, but with a new GM coming in, who knows what direction they go. That staff if healthy can compete with anyone so an aggressive and savvy GM could help them compete. I would try and get Paxton from the Mariners who will soon decline.

I mean this in a non-snarky way, but why do you want to target Paxton if you think he'll decline soon?

 

Pretty sure he meant the Mariners will decline soon.

[Boomer5]

Moose likely won’t stay on a one year deal though his 750 OPS with us might make him consider it.

 

Schoop in no way should earn $10M from a small market team.

[TigerUppercut]

Moose likely won’t stay on a one year deal though his 750 OPS with us might make him consider it.

 

Schoop in no way should earn $10M from a small market team.

 

Disagree. As long as bringing him back doesn't harm in-season flexibility, why does $10M matter? Get over the money. Based on what I've seen, it likely goes to paying players or into crappy concession/park "improvements" which don't help the on-field product at all. Let him settle in for a full year here and let's see what he's got. He's flashed a high ceiling. You can't give up on those type of players in a small market.

[Dadbauer]

Hard to predict the Mets at all. They had a really bad year, but with a new GM coming in, who knows what direction they go. That staff if healthy can compete with anyone so an aggressive and savvy GM could help them compete. I would try and get Paxton from the Mariners who will soon decline.

I mean this in a non-snarky way, but why do you want to target Paxton if you think he'll decline soon?

 

Pretty sure he meant the Mariners will decline soon.

 

Bingo. Their best players are getting old, their farm is nonexistent, and the A's and Astros look really tough.

[OnaBadger58]

It seems tough to get deals done with the Mets front office. I the Brewers trade for Syndergaard, deGrom, Wheeler, and even Matz, they will being overpaying and that doesn't seem to fall into the way Stearns operates.

 

Some other options:

 

James Paxton - 2 yrs arb. (as stated above)

Carlos Rodon - 3 yrs arb. At some point the White Sox will see the potential turn into production. I think they will want Rodon for their team but who knows.

Robbie Ray - 2 yrs arb. I have no idea what the future is of the Diamondbacks, but perhaps Ray could be had this offseason.

Marcus Stroman - 2 yr arb. Reclamation project. I know Stroman wasn't a fan of his arbitration with the Jays last season, and it seemed to kind of snowball

into the season.

Sonny Gray - 1 yr. Same as Stroman. I think he still has #2 starter in him and would love to see the Brewers nab him this offseason.

[jackailius]

I'm starting to warm to the idea of bringing in Sonny Gray as a buy low, high upside guy. What does everyone think it would take to get him after his roughing up in NY? Would Santana and maybe a Diplan do it or would they be looking for more should we offer less?

[nate82]

For Gray I wouldn't offer the Yankees anything of value. If they are willing to take someone like Wilkerson or Zagurski. Anything more than that is an overpay.

[jackailius]

While I understand he has had a rough year I think his overall body of work will make it so that there will be teams willing to take a chance that he can regain his previous abilities and will be willing to give up more than one AAAA player. Maybe Santana and Diplan would be a bit much but neither of them have been overly impressive this year either. Again, I'm not saying what I proposed isn't an overpayment but I have to believe that there will be teams willing to drop a little more at a chance that Gray regains himself.

[Lathund]

I'm starting to warm to the idea of bringing in Sonny Gray as a buy low, high upside guy. What does everyone think it would take to get him after his roughing up in NY? Would Santana and maybe a Diplan do it or would they be looking for more should we offer less?

 

If the Yankees are moving on, and the acquisition cost would be in line with a team dumping a player who underperformed for the past year, then I'd absolutely be for the idea. Won't go as far as to suggest specific deals, but considering he has only one year left I don't think his value is all that high. Regardless, Santana is out of options and the Yankees have Stanton, Judge, Hicks and Gardner (Plus the injured Ellsbury) already, they hardly need outfielders.

[coolhandluke121]

If Moose couldn't get more than a one year deal plus and option last year, what makes him think he can do better this year? He had a better 2017 than 2018 and he had to settle playing for a mere $5.5 million in 2018.

 

Pretty simple answer here if you think it through. He had better offers but turned his nose up at them, and those teams spent their money elsewhere. He signed that offer after the market dried up because he wanted to stay in KC and because other teams didn't want to give up a draft pick. Without the draft pick penalty, he will get a much better contract this year if he's wise enough to jump at the chance.

[coolhandluke121]

Regarding arbitration decisions, I think you have to remember that the Brewers wanted to spend money last winter but didn't want to commit to more than 1-2 years. If you want good players, you usually have to do both. I think they would have gladly signed Moustakas to the same deal he got from KC and traded Thames if not for the draft pick compensation, and I think they'd gladly pick up his option and make other plans for Thames* if Moustakas wants to stay.

 

Same goes for Schoop. It's a 1-year deal. They wouldn't want him for 3/$30m, but an arbitration raise is fine. They have a certain amount of money to burn as long as it's 1-year deals, and they'll try to use it on the best players they can get. If all you can offer is 1/$10m, it's pretty hard to beat Schoop's upside at 2b.

 

They'll definitely find a way to keep Santana if they can't trade him, even if it means cutting Thames and taking the loss. He's 2 years younger than Broxton and has shown much more potential. Assuming Moustakas opts out, they will easily have room for at least one of them. They should still have enough relievers with options to carry 13 hitters next year, so they could still keep both of them.

 

I wouldn't even be shocked if they keep Soria. It's not a question of whether he's the best value they can find in the bullpen. It's a question of what's the best reliever they can get on a 1-year deal with the money they have. If they don't find a better value in free agency, they could keep him. It's the number of years that matters most to them.

 

*Roster Resource has an option for Thames. I'm sure he wouldn't like it and it would be hard for the Brewers to stomach the cost, but don't discount it completely. It's nice to have legit Braun insurance in the minors.

 

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-milwaukee-brewers/

[coolhandluke121]

Did Guerra keep his option? They awarded him a 4th option after a very complicated process this year, and I can't see how he would have spent more than a week or so in AAA. I just don't know if there's different rules for that "redshirt option" thing, like if it can't be saved or something. (I made up that term but it makes sense.)

[And That]

Did Guerra keep his option? They awarded him a 4th option after a very complicated process this year, and I can't see how he would have spent more than a week or so in AAA. I just don't know if there's different rules for that "redshirt option" thing, like if it can't be saved or something. (I made up that term but it makes sense.)

Guerra has an option going into next year, yes. He spent less than 20 days in the minor leagues this season.

[And That]

At this point in time, what I would do:

 

Jeffress: Offer

Knebel: Offer

Soria: Exercise option (don't know if he would exercise his side or not)

Cedeno: Offer

Jennings: Decline to offer

Lyles: Exercise option

Davies: Offer

Nelson: Offer

Santana: Offer

Shaw: Offer

Moustakas: Exercise option (don't think he would exercise his side though)

Perez: Offer

Saladino: Decline to offer

Schoop: Decline to offer

Guerra: Offer

Pina: Offer

Kratz: Decline to offer

Vogt: Decline to offer

Albers: Release

 

Regarding Schoop, I just don't think it's a worthwhile enough gamble at this point to bet $10 million that he'll have a big year in 2019. Just think there's too much risk in his batting profile. I'd rather they went out and get Marwin Gonzalez as a FA.

[TURBO]

If Schoop is going to be a part time player, then I agree, no need to pay him 10 million. If he was going to log 85-90% of the innings at 2B, then I think it is a gamble worth the risk.

 

If we do get Moose back, that means Shaw will have time at 2B, which makes Schoop expendable.

[Lathund]

Schoop 100% depends on what the market looks like, and if any of the better options out there are interested in a short term deal. Because while ~$10m for Schoop is steep, it's also only a 1 year commitment. Others may be interested at a lower AAV, but more money total. And if things pan out with Dubon and/or Hiura a short term deal is all we're looking for.

[pacopete4]

Move Shaw to 1B, Schoop to 2B, and Moustakas to 3B and Jesus back to being the sultan of swat coming off the bench or move him if someone believes in his pre all start stretch.

[SRB]

I'd much rather keep Schoop than Moustakas, if only because Shaw needs to play somewhere every day.

 

Schoop has enough of a track record that you can't cut him (in his age 27 season) just because he's had a brutal couple months here. He's easily worth $10M if you play the odds.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I'd like to see Eduardo Escobar brought in as a 2B where his glove is way above average and the bat plays very, very well. The range of Arcia and Escobar up the middle would be a sight to behold. Move on from Moustakas and Schoop.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It would be a big bummer to give up on Schoop at this point, but if they go that route, I'd understand it. I wouldn't have a problem at all with Moustakas being brought back next year. He hasn't torn the cover off the ball in his time with the team, but he's been solid both offensively and defensively, and he seems like a great clubhouse presence and team leader. If they could get him on an affordable 2-3 year deal, that would be fine by me. Shaw has proven that, while he's never going to be a Gold Glover at 2B, his defense is acceptable there. If Arcia is seeing most of he time at SS, his range and fielding prowess helps make up for Shaw's lack of range. You'd also have guys like Perez or perhaps even Mauricio Dubon that can play 2B vs. lefties if you want to play matchups.

[Boomer5]

Shaw’s UZR/150 is -8.5 at 2B. I can’t see them going into 2019 as their starting 2B. A point that will likely be moot when Moose turns down his half of the option.

 

The roster has a lot of questions for 2019 but I don’t really care, it’s all about now and our excellent chances to make the WS.

[And That]

Going by DRS, which I think is the best defensive metric ahead of FRAA and well ahead of UZR, Shaw was -1 in his time at second base, which translates to -4 over a full season. Not great by any stretch, but that’s a level that teams are comfortable sticking with. For comparison, he would have ranked slightly ahead of Jason Kipnis and Yoan Moncada. And well ahead of Brian Dozier and Cesar Hernandez.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I think they bring back Albers and see what he can do in Spring training. They will be paying him $2.5M anyways, may well see if he can correct what has troubled him this fall. He was terrible in the second half, but was excellent through May (ERA around 1.00). Relievers are fickle from year to year. He could very easily be a steal for $2.5M next year. If he is still horrible in spring, then you cut him. All depends if we need space on the 40 man roster.